Group 1 - The market sentiment is shifting, with significant attention on Huawei's Mate 60 and its impact on A-shares [1][3] - US tech stocks experienced a pullback, with Nvidia and Tesla dropping over 3%, while Alibaba surged 13% due to strong cloud business growth, indicating a shift in investment from hardware to software and services [3] - The Chinese government is signaling a supportive policy environment, with the CSRC emphasizing market stability and the NDRC highlighting the importance of avoiding disorderly competition in AI, suggesting a clear policy bottom with no systemic risks currently [3] Group 2 - Central Huijin increased its ETF holdings by over 210 billion yuan in the first half of the year, reaching a record high in market value, indicating strong support for the market [3] - The semiconductor ETF saw a reduction in holdings, suggesting a shift in funds towards software and consumer sectors [3] - The RMB exchange rate has surpassed 7.14, and if foreign capital returns, the financial and consumer sectors may perform well [3] Group 3 - Companies in the Huawei supply chain and those in consumer electronics with order support should be closely monitored [4] - Consumer stocks may be positioned ahead of the National Day holiday, but it is advised to make decisions before the holiday and manage positions carefully [4] - Maintaining a 60% position while keeping cash available for opportunities around the 3700-point mark is recommended [4]

Group 1 - The current market rally is primarily driven by institutional investors rather than retail investors, with a focus on industrial trends and earnings [2] - The market's settlement funds relative to circulating market value remain in a reasonable range, indicating ongoing profit accumulation [2] - Future market performance will depend on new allocation cues rather than just liquidity and abundant funds [2] Group 2 - Recent market highs are supported by ample liquidity, with positive signals from the movement of household deposits indicating improved domestic liquidity [3] - The consensus on an upward market trend is strengthening, with key factors such as domestic fundamentals and liquidity showing positive changes [3] - Strategic allocations should focus on sectors like AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, military, and large financial institutions [3] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's dovish stance suggests a likely interest rate cut in September, which may improve dollar liquidity and benefit Hong Kong stocks [4] - The current market phase is characterized by a funding-driven environment, with a focus on sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and domestic AI [4] - Analysts have revised upward profit forecasts for various sectors, indicating potential strong performance in those areas [4] Group 4 - The market is experiencing a "healthy bull" phase, with a focus on technology growth leading the way [9] - There are opportunities in low-valuation cyclical sectors that align with positive economic expectations [9] - Key areas for investment include Hong Kong internet, semiconductor equipment, software applications, and new consumption [9] Group 5 - The A-share market is expected to maintain an optimistic outlook, with liquidity indicators still favorable for equities [6] - Investment strategies should focus on high-growth sectors like semiconductor materials and biomedicine, while avoiding lagging industries [6] - The market sentiment is improving but has not reached overly optimistic levels seen in previous bull markets [6] Group 6 - The current bull market is supported by various sources of incremental capital, including long-term funds and active private equity [12] - The "migration of deposits" trend may become a significant source of new capital for the market [12] - Focus areas for investment should include new technologies and growth sectors, such as domestic AI applications and robotics [12]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Tianfeng Securities indicates that after the market reached new highs, there is an accelerated entry of sidelined funds, emphasizing a cautious and steady approach to investment [1][3]. Investment Themes - Investment themes can be categorized into three main directions: 1) Breakthroughs in Deepseek and leadership in open-source technology AI+ 2) Valuation recovery in consumer stocks and gradual recovery in consumer segmentation 3) Continued rise of undervalued dividends [1][3]. Market Dynamics - The report analyzes the logic behind the A-share market's volume increase and new highs, noting that weak returns in the real economy may lead private sector asset allocation to shift towards financial assets. Historical patterns show that during previous bull markets, non-bank deposits significantly increased when real estate and economic returns were weak [1][2]. Consumer Sector Insights - The core factor for investment in the consumer sector is valuation. Given the current low valuations, declining interest rates, and policy catalysts, the consumer recovery cycle is expected to gain momentum. Being overly pessimistic about future consumer performance may be excessively conservative [1][3]. International Context - The report highlights international developments, including the U.S. core CPI growth exceeding expectations, with July's core CPI year-on-year at 3.1%, up from a previous 2.9% [2].

Group 1 - The core event of the week (July 28 - August 3) is the US-China trade talks, along with the implementation of Hong Kong's Stablecoin Regulation on August 1 [1][3] - Significant data releases include the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, non-farm payrolls, GDP data, and China's July PMI figures [1][2] Group 2 - A total of 48 stocks will face lock-up expiration this week, with a combined unlock volume of 3.368 billion shares, amounting to a market value of 102.29 billion yuan [3][4] - The top three stocks by unlock market value are: Huada Jiutian (31.025 billion yuan), Shanghai Airport (14.216 billion yuan), and Tongguan Copper Foil (12.54 billion yuan) [3][4] Group 3 - The State Council of China is promoting free preschool education as a significant public welfare initiative, emphasizing the need for local governments to develop detailed plans and ensure funding [5] - The Chinese government has proposed the establishment of a World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization, with a preliminary plan for its headquarters to be in Shanghai [6] Group 4 - In the first half of 2023, profits of large-scale industrial enterprises in China totaled 343.65 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.8% [6] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is focused on stabilizing the market and promoting long-term capital inflows, with several key reforms underway [7] Group 5 - Two new stocks are set to be issued this week: Tianfulong (603406.SH) and Guangdong Jianke (301632.SZ) [8][9] - The market is experiencing structural rotation, with a focus on sectors such as non-bank financials, consumer goods, and technology [10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Based on macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures on June 10, 2025, including股指期货,国债 futures, precious metals futures, base metals futures, energy futures, and chemical futures, and gives resistance and support levels [2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: IF2506, IH2506, IC2506, and IM2506 are expected to oscillate strongly on June 10, 2025, with specific resistance and support levels provided. For the whole of June 2025, they are also expected to have a generally strong - oscillating trend [2][19]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year T2509 and thirty - year TL2509 are likely to oscillate strongly on June 10, 2025, with corresponding resistance and support levels [3][39]. - **Precious Metals Futures**: Gold futures AU2508 are expected to oscillate and consolidate on June 10, 2025, while silver futures AG2508 are likely to oscillate strongly and may hit a new high. For June 2025, gold futures are expected to have a wide - range strong - oscillating trend, and silver futures are expected to oscillate strongly and break through key resistance levels [3][45][50]. - **Base Metals Futures**: Copper (CU2507), aluminum (AL2507) futures are expected to oscillate strongly on June 10, 2025, while alumina (AO2509), zinc (ZN2507), nickel (NI2507), rebar (RB2510), hot - rolled coil (HC2510), iron ore (I2509) futures are likely to oscillate weakly. Different resistance and support levels are given for each [3][4][5]. - **Energy Futures**: Crude oil futures SC2507 are expected to oscillate strongly on June 10, 2025, with specific resistance and support levels. For June 2025, it is expected to have a wide - range strong - oscillating trend [5][95]. - **Chemical Futures**: PTA (TA509) futures are expected to oscillate and consolidate on June 10, 2025, while PVC (V2509), methanol (MA509), and natural rubber (RU2509) futures are likely to oscillate weakly, with corresponding resistance and support levels [7][101][103]. 2. Macro Information and Trading Tips - **Sino - US Economic and Trade Consultation**: The first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London on June 9 and continued on June 10 [8]. - **Domestic Policies**: The General Offices of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued an opinion on improving people's livelihood, and the State Council carried out a special study on promoting the integration of scientific and technological innovation and industrial innovation [8][9]. - **Economic Data**: In May, China's CPI decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and PPI was still at a low level. In the first five months, China's total import and export value increased by 2.5% year - on - year, with exports growing by 7.2% and imports decreasing by 3.8% [8][9]. - **International News**: The US Senate Republicans plan to propose a revised tax and healthcare bill, the US may hit the debt ceiling between mid - August and late September, and consumer inflation expectations in the US decreased in May [10]. 3. Commodity Futures - Related Information - **International Futures Market**: On June 9, international precious metals futures closed mixed, and international oil prices strengthened. The first recycled metal futures option, cast aluminum alloy, was listed on the Shanghai Futures Exchange on June 10 [12]. - **Exchange - Rate Information**: Hong Kong will maintain the linked exchange rate system, and the on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose on June 9. The US dollar index fell, and non - US currencies generally rose [12][13][14]. 4. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On June 9, IF2506, IH2506, IC2506, and IM2506 all showed a trend of opening higher, rising and then falling back, with different degrees of increase. The A - share market oscillated and rebounded, and the Hong Kong stock market was strong [14][15][16][17]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On June 9, the ten - year T2509 and thirty - year TL2509 both showed a trend of opening higher, rising and then falling back, with different degrees of increase. The central bank carried out 1738 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net investment of 1738 billion yuan [36][41]. - **Precious Metals Futures**: On June 9, gold futures AU2508 fell, while silver futures AG2508 rose and hit a new high [45][50]. - **Base Metals Futures**: On June 9, copper, aluminum, alumina, zinc, nickel, rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore futures showed different trends of rise and fall [54][59][63][68][71][77][80][83]. - **Energy Futures**: On June 9, crude oil futures SC2507 rose [95]. - **Chemical Futures**: On June 9, PTA, PVC, methanol, and natural rubber futures showed different trends of rise and fall [101][103][105][108].