A股三大股指集体高开，沪指涨0.59%，创业板指涨1.41%。盘面上，贵金属、算力、半导体、稀土永磁 等板块涨幅居前。 机构看后市 光大证券：3800点后继续看多，市场中长期仍有望持续上行，短期关注滞涨方向 光大证券认为，受政策利好刺激、市场情绪回暖等因素的影响，A股市场上周整体继续上行，主要宽基 指数普遍上涨。在主要宽基指数中，科创50涨幅最大，而上证50涨幅最小。目前来看，支撑股票市场上 涨的逻辑并没有发生变化，市场估值目前也较为合理，并未出现明显透支。此外，还有一些新的积极因 素正在出现，如美联储降息周期可能会开启、公募资金发行出现回暖。综合来看，市场中长期仍然有望 持续上行。 配置方向上，短期关注滞涨方向。中长期则关注三条主线：科技自立、内需消费与红利个股。科技方 面，关注AI、机器人、半导体产业链、国防军工、低空经济等;消费方面，消费板块基本面有望保持韧 性，关注补贴相关、线下服务消费等;红利板块，关注部分高质量标的。 华泰证券：市场新高后或仍有空间，AI、创新药、军工、大金融是战略配置重点 华泰证券表示，近期居民存款搬家的叙事构成了国内流动性改善的积极信号，后续或仍有空间。短期来 看，判断市场顶部 ...

2025 年 8 月 24 日 策略研究 3800 点后，继续看多市场 ——策略周专题（2025 年 8 月第 3 期） 要点 本周 A 股市场继续上涨 受风险偏好抬升等因素的影响，本周 A 股市场继续上涨。受政策利好刺激、市 场情绪回暖等因素的影响，A 股市场本周整体继续上行，主要宽基指数普遍上涨。 在主要宽基指数中，本周科创 50 涨幅最大，而上证 50 涨幅最小。 行业方面，通信、电子、综合表现相对较好。分行业来看，本周申万一级行业普 遍出现上涨。通信、电子、综合等行业本周表现相对较好，涨幅分别为 10.8%、 8.9%及 8.2%；相比之下，房地产、煤炭、医药生物等行业涨幅则靠后。 市场有望持续上行，积极做多 近期 A 股表现强势，已经突破去年高点。4 月 8 日以来，国内市场持续上行，并 且不断创下年内新高，在近期上证指数更是突破了去年的高点。在市场上涨的过 程中，整体回撤也相对较小，上证指数最大回撤率仅为 2.48%。截至 8 月 22 日， 上证指数的收盘点位为 3826。 展望未来，我们认为市场仍然有望继续上行。目前来看，支撑股票市场上涨的逻 辑并没有发生变化，市场估值目前也较为合理，并未出现 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market has shown strong performance recently, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking the 3600-point mark, driven by financial stocks and increased market liquidity [1][2] - As of July 28, the Shanghai Composite Index reached a high of 3606.27 points, closing at 3597.94 points, up 0.12%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index also saw gains [1] Market Drivers - The current market rally is primarily driven by liquidity and fundamentals, contrasting with the previous policy-driven surge [2] - Analysts suggest that the market is in a "bull market second phase," indicating continued growth potential, with many industry leaders having doubled their stock prices since September 2024 [3] Sector Performance - There is a rotation among industry sectors, with previously strong banking stocks experiencing profit-taking, while growth sectors such as innovative pharmaceuticals and AI are on the rise [2] - Beneficiary sectors of economic transformation, including smart driving, robotics, and drones, are expected to rebound in the second half of the year [2] Investment Strategies - Short-term focus should be on sectors with favorable mid-year performance, while long-term strategies should emphasize three main lines: domestic consumption, technological self-reliance, and dividend stocks [4] - Specific sectors to watch include high-dividend low-valuation blue-chip stocks, technology growth areas, and consumer recovery sectors [4] - Current market conditions suggest that holding stocks may be a more effective strategy, with attention on sectors like non-ferrous metals, communications, innovative pharmaceuticals, military industry, and gaming [4]

Market Overview - The A-share market has shown signs of recovery this week, driven by increased risk appetite and favorable policies, with major indices generally rising [4] - Among the major indices, the Sci-Tech 50 saw the largest increase, while the Shanghai 50 had the smallest gain [4] Industry Performance - In terms of industry performance, sectors such as building materials, coal, and steel performed relatively well, while banking, telecommunications, and public utilities experienced declines [5] Investment Strategy - The current market trend may lean towards "rotating supplementary gains" rather than "stronger strengths," with historical data indicating that both patterns can occur during slow bull markets [6] - The likelihood of a strong economic recovery is low, suggesting that the market will exhibit a "rotating supplementary gains" characteristic [7] - Potential supplementary gain opportunities should focus on sectors that have lagged in performance but have historically shown strong recovery potential [7] Future Market Outlook - The market is expected to trend upwards in the second half of the year, with the possibility of reaching new highs, transitioning from policy-driven to fundamentals and liquidity-driven growth [8] - Key investment themes for the medium to long term include domestic consumption, technological self-reliance, and dividend-paying stocks, with specific attention to sectors like AI, robotics, and defense [8]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown an overall upward trend, driven by favorable economic data and policy support, with the ChiNext index leading the gains [3][4]. Economic Performance - In Q2 2025, GDP growth reached 5.2% year-on-year, with a cumulative growth of 5.3% in the first half of the year, indicating that a growth rate of 4.7% in the second half is sufficient to meet the annual target of 5% [4]. - Retail sales and exports have shown upward trends, reflecting stable demand and a slowdown in investment growth, which improves the supply-demand relationship in the economy [4]. - Financial data in June was strong, and the willingness of enterprises to expand internally, along with the pace of new fiscal policies, will be key factors influencing social financing growth [4]. Policy Environment - Policies aimed at improving corporate profitability and attracting long-term capital into the market are being implemented. The Ministry of Finance has issued guidelines to encourage insurance funds to invest steadily over the long term [4]. - There is still room for internal policies to exert influence, and rapid policy responses may occur if external uncertainties increase [4]. External Factors - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs is expected to gradually ease, with the 90-day trade tariff suspension between China and the U.S. set to expire on August 12 [5]. - Market expectations suggest that September may be a critical month for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could lead to increased global liquidity and support the revaluation of Chinese assets [5]. Corporate Earnings - The first quarter saw a significant rebound in the earnings growth of listed companies, with the recovery speed slightly exceeding expectations, and the quarter-on-quarter growth surpassing the average since 2019 [5]. - Continued consumer subsidy policies may support the sustainability of domestic demand improvements [5]. Market Outlook - August is anticipated to be a key month, with attention on the disclosure of mid-year earnings by listed companies, the easing of external uncertainties, and the marginal loosening of overseas liquidity [6]. - The market is expected to shift from policy-driven to fundamentally and liquidity-driven dynamics, with potential for new highs in the second half of the year [7]. - Investment focus should be on sectors with favorable mid-year earnings, and long-term attention should be directed towards three main lines: domestic consumption, technological independence, and dividend stocks [7].

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown signs of recovery, with major indices mostly rising, particularly the ChiNext Index which increased by 2.4% [13][14][16] - The real estate, steel, and non-bank financial sectors performed relatively well this week, with respective increases of 6.1%, 4.4%, and 4.0% [16][19][34] - The manufacturing sector is predicted to have the highest mid-year report performance growth, with an estimated year-on-year growth rate of approximately 10.0% [33][34] Group 2 - Industries expected to show high mid-year report performance growth include light industry, non-ferrous metals, and non-bank financial sectors, with predicted net profit growth rates of 34.2%, 33.0%, and 19.1% respectively [33][34] - The construction materials, electronics, and telecommunications sectors are anticipated to have significant performance improvement, with expected growth rate improvements of 11.4%, 7.9%, and 6.1% respectively [34][39] - The current mid-year earnings forecast disclosure rate is only 4.1%, indicating limited reference value for investors [39][42] Group 3 - The overall pre-announcement rate for A-share companies is 72%, with many industries showing high pre-announcement rates, particularly in real estate and non-bank financial sectors [39][40] - The environmental protection, transportation, and media sectors are expected to show significant improvement in mid-year earnings forecasts, with respective improvement rates of 139.5pct, 111.0pct, and 96.7pct [41][44] - The market is expected to experience a bullish trend in the second half of the year, with a focus on sectors that are likely to outperform in mid-year reports [57][58]