来源：格隆汇APP 国泰海通研报称，红利资产的本质是业绩稳定、现金流可持续的优质公司，能够为投资者提供稳定的高 股息回报，因此红利资产具备更高的股息率水平、可持续的稳定现金流、更稳健的财务结构、维持性的 资本开支。若对比两地红利资产看，港股性价比相对更高，第一，港股现金分红比例高于A股，2017- 2024年全部港股现金分红比例均值为44%，明显高于A股的36%；第二，相较A股，港股股息率优势明 显，港股恒生综合指数股息率为2.9%，高于万得全A指数的1.9%；第三，港股红利资产估值水平相对更 低，恒生高股息率R指数PE、PB分别为7.2倍、0.6倍（下同），均低于中证红利全收益指数7.9倍、0.8 倍；第四，港股高股息资产占比更高，行业分布更多样，A股中仅银行、石化等行业高股息资产较多， 而港股红利资产的行业选择更为多样。 ...

Market Overview - Since September, the A-share market has experienced fluctuations and adjustments, with increased risk aversion leading some funds to shift towards dividend assets characterized by low valuations and high dividends [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index has dropped by 1.18% since September, indicating a structural divergence in the market [2] Sector Performance - The defense, computer, and electronics sectors, which previously led the market, have seen significant corrections, with the defense sector index declining over 10% [2] - Conversely, cyclical sectors such as electric equipment, non-ferrous metals, and public utilities have strengthened, with the electric equipment sector rising over 5% [2] - The strong performance of cyclical sectors is attributed to steady demand recovery and the appeal of high dividend yields in the current market environment [2] Stock Characteristics - Over 3,000 stocks have declined since September, with more than 450 stocks falling over 10%, while over 400 stocks have risen more than 10% [3] - Stocks that have increased by at least 10% exhibit significant high dividend characteristics, with their average market capitalization below 15 billion and average P/E ratios lower than those of declining stocks [4] Fund Flows - Dividend assets have attracted significant capital, with dividend-themed ETFs seeing a net inflow of over 800 million, while other sectors like technology and AI have experienced substantial outflows [5] - Financing balances in sectors such as electric equipment and non-ferrous metals have increased, while sectors like defense and computing have seen declines [5] Stability and Risk Buffer - Dividend assets have shown notable resilience during market downturns, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index in several instances since 2020 [6][7] - The dividend index has a lower P/E ratio compared to consumer and technology indices, indicating a more attractive valuation for risk-averse investors [8] Investment Strategy - The dividend sector is seen as a strong defensive choice in a volatile market, while the consumer sector offers stable returns and growth potential for long-term investors [9] - The technology sector, despite its high growth potential, carries investment risks due to lower dividend yields and higher valuations [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Layout of the bottom - position is as important as flexible offense. A basket of "high - dividend × low - volatility" dividend assets can provide a natural "shock absorber" for the portfolio, and the combination can withstand extreme market conditions by suppressing volatility with stable cash flows and low β and then capturing market mismatches with the remaining positions [3]. - To amplify returns in the dividend pool, a dual - screening approach is more reliable than relying solely on the "high - dividend" indicator. Adding a second filter such as low - volatility, earnings quality, or institutional holdings can eliminate potential risks and further increase the returns of general dividend assets [3]. - On top of the dividend bottom - position, there are systematic excess opportunities from the left - to - right shift of the industrial cycle. Priority should be given to companies with stable cash flows despite pressured profits. Industries such as cement, silicone, and phosphate chemicals are currently in the preferred range, while the photovoltaic chain is still in a state of "double losses in profit and cash flow". The overall allocation strategy involves initially establishing an observation position, increasing the position after confirming the leading indicators of the profit inflection point, and exiting when profits weaken again or the gross margin is inverted [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bottom - Position Allocation Necessity: "Pure Left" and "Pure Right" Are Not Desirable - In a market with an increasing industry rotation center, it is crucial to build a long - term core position first. A 15 - year quarterly rotation experiment on 31 Shenwan primary industries shows that both extreme left - side bottom - fishing and extreme right - side chasing result in single - digit annualized returns and significant drawdowns. In contrast, a dividend portfolio characterized by "high - dividend × low - volatility" can provide double - digit annualized returns and keep drawdowns within an acceptable range. Therefore, increasing the exposure of "high - dividend + low - β" in the bottom - position can provide a safety cushion for the portfolio [7]. - Dividend assets are the optimal core bottom - position in terms of return - to - drawdown. Historical stress tests show that the dividend index has shallower drawdowns, a stable 3 - year rolling Sharpe ratio, and does not require market timing in the long - term perspective. It also has higher probabilities of achieving positive returns in different holding periods compared to most broad - based and style indices [10][12][21]. 3.2 Dividend Yield Single - Factor Trap - Selecting stocks based solely on the "high - dividend" factor often leads to choosing high - volatility stocks with limited return increases and large drawdowns. Adding a second filter such as low - volatility or earnings quality can improve the overall cost - effectiveness. Statistical regression shows that the dividend yield alone has a weak explanatory power for future returns [29]. - Several case studies illustrate different types of "false high - dividend" traps. For example, some companies rely on one - time gains to support high dividends, some have high dividends due to falling stock prices rather than improved profitability, and some have high dividends at the peak of the business cycle or due to high leverage. To avoid these traps, specific financial and operational criteria need to be set [37][40][44]. 3.3 High - Dividend Smart - Beta's Distortion Risk - Modified dividend indices such as "Dividend Quality" and "Dividend Potential" have larger fluctuations and deeper drawdowns than the CSI Dividend Index. Their style drift and uncontrolled risk exposure lead to higher volatility, especially in bear markets. The main reasons are their high - concentration weighting, high - valuation requirements, and frequent chasing of market highs [60][64]. - The CSI Dividend Index selects 100 stocks based on a three - year dividend yield with a diversified weighting, while the Dividend Quality and Dividend Potential indices select 50 stocks by adding factors such as ROE and EPS growth, with a more concentrated and high - chasing weighting. As a result, they are more likely to suffer from double - kills of earnings and valuation when the market weakens [64]. 3.4 Potential Ways to Enhance Dividend Low - Volatility - **Dividend + Pricing Power Approach**: Traditional high - dividend indices have several drawbacks, including style drift, inclusion of high - risk high - dividend stocks, and right - side trading characteristics. A comprehensive scoring system based on pricing power, price - to - earnings ratio, and stability can be used to select the top 20 stocks for a portfolio. A ten - year back - test shows that this combination has better performance in terms of cumulative return, annualized return, and drawdown control compared to the CSI Dividend Index [83][84]. - **Considering Institutional Participation Rate**: Incorporating institutional holdings into high - dividend screening reveals that stocks with high institutional participation (≥20%) from stable - cash - flow industries have better risk - return profiles, including higher cumulative returns, greater upside potential, and controlled drawdowns. In contrast, stocks with low institutional participation (<20%) from cyclical industries perform less well. Therefore, combining high - dividends with institutional recognition can build a safer and more sustainable dividend portfolio [89]. 3.5 Bottom - Position Is Not Just Dividends: Quality Low - Volatility and Cash Cows - The "quality + low - volatility" dual - screened bottom - position established in June 2020 can achieve a balance between offense and defense. By filtering out high - leverage and low - resilience companies and compressing risk thresholds, it has achieved a five - year rolling net value increase of about 1.6 times, with stable single - digit annualized returns and significantly reduced volatility and drawdowns compared to ordinary low - volatility strategies [94]. - The long - term returns of dividend assets mainly come from stable dividends and profits rather than valuation increases. From 2014 - 2025, the annualized total returns of Dividend Low - Volatility and CSI Dividend after reinvestment were 13.9% and 13.2% respectively, with dividend contributions exceeding 9 percentage points and accounting for over 70% of the total returns [98]. - The cash - cow enhancement framework uses six dimensions to examine potential risks in high - dividend portfolios and provides corresponding enhancement measures. These measures include equal - weighting industries and quality sorting to address concentration risks, using free - cash - flow and growth thresholds to eliminate "high - dividend traps", and implementing valuation gates and hedging strategies to manage valuation risks [108]. 3.6 Industrial Cycle Reversal: From Left to Right - At the inflection point of the industrial cycle, multi - dimensional indicators such as fundamentals, inventory, price, valuation, and funds often show concurrent inflection points. The consistency in the industry dimension, from raw material prices to mid - stream production and downstream demand, can improve the reliability of inflection - point signals. For example, the anti - involution market rhythm is often in line with this "consistency chain" [111][112]. - At the company level, by dividing samples into leading, mid - stream, and tail companies, monitoring the second - order derivatives of 10 key indicators can help identify the acceleration of marginal improvements in demand, pricing, or cash flows. When at least three indicators in any two of the three sample layers show positive second - order derivatives, it can be regarded as a company - level consistency inflection point [114]. - The industrial cycle reversal framework uses a "three - light" approach to determine investment opportunities. When the three conditions of valuation repair, profit - cash flow resonance improvement, and completion of inventory reduction and demand expansion are met simultaneously, it indicates a three - dimensional resonance of supply - demand, profit, and sentiment, and investors can make aggressive investments. Otherwise, they should continue to hold the dividend bottom - position [115].

Tax Policy Changes - On August 1, 2025, the Ministry of Finance announced the resumption of value-added tax (VAT) on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds starting August 8, 2025[1] - Existing bonds issued before this date will continue to be exempt from VAT until maturity, creating a "new and old distinction" in tax application[6] Reasons for Tax Resumption - The historical mission of the tax exemption policy has been completed, as the bond market has grown significantly, now ranking second globally[3] - The resumption aims to adjust the funding structure and prevent excessive liquidity from being trapped in interest-bearing bonds, thereby increasing fiscal revenue and alleviating fiscal pressure[4] Financial Impact - The short-term revenue from the resumption of VAT on interest income is estimated to be around 34 billion yuan[5] - The tax revenue is expected to increase further as the scale of new debt issuance expands over time[5] Market Implications - In the short term, the resumption of VAT is likely to push interest rates down and create pricing differences between new and old bonds[8] - Long-term effects may be bearish for interest-bearing bonds as the cost advantage diminishes, potentially shifting investment towards credit bonds and dividend assets[8] Market Trends - Since mid-July, bond market volatility has increased significantly, influenced by liquidity conditions and strong stock market performance[9] - The 10-year government bond yield has fluctuated, reaching a high of approximately 1.75%[9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift in investment strategies as money market fund yields approach 1%, leading to a growing concern among the public regarding "yield anxiety" and the need for diversified investment approaches in a low-interest-rate environment [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Strategy Insights - Investors are encouraged to transition from "single asset" approaches to "allocation thinking" to meet their yield goals due to declining yields in the domestic bond market and the entry of money market and deposit rates into the "1% era" [1][2]. - Five key tasks for effective diversification and dynamic allocation are outlined: 1. Core asset allocation should address market uncertainties through diversification 2. Acknowledge the low yield in the bond market due to economic factors and liquidity 3. Maintain a medium to long-term perspective with tactical allocation cycles suggested to roll over every six months to a year 4. Avoid judging tactical allocation correctness based on short-term market movements 5. Embrace contrarian investing as an effective long-term strategy in a low-interest-rate environment [2]. Group 2: Target Investor Profiles - Dividend assets are highlighted for their "quasi-bond" characteristics in a low-interest environment, suitable for three types of investors: 1. Conservative investors dissatisfied with bond yields seeking equity investments 2. Long-term asset allocators 3. Investors aiming to reduce portfolio volatility through a barbell strategy - Investors are advised to focus on dividend yield and valuation matching, with a recommended investment horizon of no less than three years [2]. Group 3: Company Overview - As an independent third-party fund distribution platform under the Ping An Group, the company aims to provide customized services based on the "target allocation method" to meet client investment needs [3]. - The company has developed a comprehensive member rights system covering various aspects such as funds, lifestyle services, travel, health insurance, and member care, while continuously exploring new wealth management models [3].

Economic Overview - The internal momentum of the US economy is weakening, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNOW model predicting a 0.4 percentage point decline in Q2 real GDP growth to 3.4% [2] - Personal consumption expenditure (PCE) growth has decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 1.9%, primarily due to a slowdown in the services sector [2] - Private investment growth (excluding inventory) has dropped by 0.8 percentage points to 0.4%, with significant contractions in real estate (-4.4%) and construction (-3.4%) [2] - The job market remains stable, with weekly initial jobless claims falling by 0.3 thousand to 245 thousand, aligning with seasonal levels [2] - The worsening situation in the Middle East is increasing inflationary pressures, as indicated by the Truflation daily inflation index rising by 8 basis points to 2.14% [2] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Fiscal policy remains expansionary, with a weekly fiscal surplus of $18.5 billion, which is weaker than seasonal levels but stronger than historical averages [3] - The Federal Reserve maintained a wait-and-see stance during the June meeting, with the dot plot indicating that 7 out of 18 members do not expect rate cuts this year [3] Market Performance - Overseas markets showed muted performance last week, with the US dollar slightly rebounding and US Treasury yields fluctuating [4] - The US stock market was nearly flat, up 0.1%, with expectations that the most significant tariff impacts have passed, potentially leading to a renewed upward trend driven by corporate earnings resilience [4] - However, high valuations and increased tariffs may limit upward potential [4] - The strategy suggests maintaining a neutral position on US stocks with a balanced allocation [4] Chinese Economic Conditions - Domestic demand shows mixed signals, with strong automotive consumption but a slowdown in real estate transactions [6] - In June, average daily retail sales of passenger cars reached 48,000 units, a 17% year-on-year increase [7] - Real estate sales are declining, with new home transaction volumes in 30 major cities dropping by 8.6% year-on-year [7] - The land market is also cooling, with land supply and transaction volumes decreasing [7] External Demand and Trade - High-frequency data indicates a potential slowdown in China's export growth in June, with port cargo and container throughput growth rates declining [8] - Exports to the US may have seen some recovery, while exports to non-US regions are expected to decline from previous highs [8] Fiscal Performance - In May, fiscal revenue growth slowed, with public budget revenue increasing by only 0.1% year-on-year [9] - Tax revenue growth decreased to 0.6%, while non-tax revenue turned negative for the first time in 2024 [9] - Government spending growth was also slower, with a 2.6% increase year-on-year [9] Market Strategy - The bond market is showing strength, with short-term rates performing well due to a stable funding environment [10] - The A-share market experienced a slight decline, with uncertainties in corporate earnings and the need for further policy support for real estate and consumption [12] - The Hong Kong stock market is facing risks of correction, with high valuations and unstable fundamentals [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for global asset allocation strategies centered around three main factors: de-globalization, debt cycles, and AI industry trends [1][2] - The proposed investment strategy is a "global barbell strategy," which includes stable assets on one end and high-yield, high-volatility assets on the other [1][2] - The current global economic uncertainty necessitates a focus on asymmetric pricing opportunities within various asset classes [2][3] Group 2 - The analysis indicates that the U.S. trade policy is unlikely to reverse the three underlying logics of the new investment paradigm, potentially increasing global political and economic uncertainty [2] - The recommendation includes a focus on defensive sectors in response to potential U.S. economic recession risks, alongside the necessity of gold as a sovereign credit asset [3] - The domestic market is currently in a debt contraction phase, transitioning from "passive leverage" to "active deleveraging," suggesting that domestic interest rate bonds hold long-term investment value [4] Group 3 - The "barbell strategy" is also applicable to strategic asset allocation in China, with a continued positive outlook on interest rate bonds and a focus on dividend assets and AI technology [4] - The AI sector, particularly represented by the "Tech Seven Sisters" in the U.S. market, has shown strong performance, but significant investment risks are present this year [4] - Recommended sectors include resilient dividend assets such as utilities, telecommunications, and banking, as well as industries benefiting from the AI trend, particularly those in the infrastructure to downstream application transition [4]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a range-bound fluctuation near the 20-day moving average, with a decline in average daily trading volume to 1.14 trillion yuan [1] - Market performance was characterized by a hierarchy: consumption > growth > finance > cyclical [1] - Economic indicators such as the May PMI showed signs of recovery, but the overall economic situation remains weak due to trade friction uncertainties [1] Group 2 - Short-term risk appetite is limited, but declining interest rates favor safe-haven assets like gold and new consumption sectors with inherent growth support [2] - The long-term trade landscape has been disrupted by tariff impacts, benefiting safe-haven assets despite short-term fluctuations in gold prices [2] - The technology growth sector, particularly in AI, robotics, innovative pharmaceuticals, and military industries, may see renewed performance as earnings reports are released [2]

Group 1 - The domestic equity market has established a policy bottom, but short-term economic resilience expectations are limited due to external demand uncertainties, leading to a structural rotation in the market with a temporary preference for dividend stocks [1] - In June, the market is expected to maintain a range-bound structure, influenced by external shocks and policy support for economic recovery, with a focus on dividend assets and new consumption sectors, as well as low-position opportunities in technology growth [1] - The consumption sector is expected to benefit from a shift in policy focus from supply-side to demand-side, with strong expectations for consumption policies and stable performance in essential consumer industries during the earnings season [1] Group 2 - The pharmaceutical industry is currently undervalued, with an anticipated surge in innovative drugs due to a significant policy shift in centralized procurement, which may open up valuation ceilings and improve performance expectations for domestic innovative drugs [2] - Dividend assets are likely to benefit from a stable fundamental environment and low interest rates, with strong policy support expected to accelerate long-term capital inflows into high-yield assets [2] - The geopolitical uncertainties and potential risks from the "America First" policy have increased the allocation value of defensive assets, suggesting continued interest in defense, food security, security, and gold assets [2]

Group 1 - The article suggests a combination strategy of dividend-based assets and index-enhanced rotation to navigate the current market volatility, especially with only three trading days left before the Dragon Boat Festival [1] - The strategy aims to provide a safety net through dividend assets while capturing growth through index-enhanced products, aligning with current market trends and policies [1][3] - The performance of the CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF (SZ159552) has been notable, with a year-to-date increase of 20%, significantly outperforming the CSI 2000 index by 11% [1][3] Group 2 - The strong performance of small-cap stocks this year has provided ample opportunities for excess returns through index-enhanced strategies, as the CSI 2000 index includes high-growth and volatile small-cap stocks [3] - Increased market attention and inflow of funds into the CSI 2000 constituents have driven stock prices up, creating more opportunities for index-enhanced products [3] - The combination of passive index tracking for beta returns and active management for excess return potential makes the CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF increasingly popular among investors [3] Group 3 - The Hang Seng High Dividend Low Volatility ETF (SH520550) has a high dividend yield of 8.29%, making it an attractive option for investors seeking stable income [3] - This ETF has shown a strong upward trend since April and has achieved a 10% return year-to-date, making it a leading option among dividend ETFs [4] - The ETF features a monthly dividend distribution mechanism, allowing for up to 12 distributions per year, which is appealing for long-term investors [4] Group 4 - A suggested allocation strategy is to start with a 50% investment in both the Hang Seng High Dividend Low Volatility ETF (520550) and the CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF (159552), with adjustments based on market conditions [6] - If small-cap stocks continue to outperform, the allocation to the CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF could be increased to 70%, while in case of risk events, the allocation to the Hang Seng ETF could be raised to over 80% for safety [6]