编者按 2026年是"十五五"开局之年，市场正在寻找新的方向。 面对宏观环境的变化、产业格局的调整，投资者需要穿透短期波动，看清中长期的主线。这不容易，但 值得尝试。 为此，中信保诚基金推出"2026，预见"系列，围绕宏观、固收、固收+、权益、商品、红利、周期、科 技八个领域，分享我们的研究和思考。 我们不预测市场，而是梳理逻辑；不给出答案，而是提供视角。希望这些内容能帮助您在做投资决策 时，多一份参考。 本系列共八篇，将陆续发布。感谢您的关注。 当市场的时钟拨向2026年，一个清晰的共识正在机构投资者中形成：以纯债资产为单一核心的"舒适"配 置时代或已然落幕。这并非源于债市本身的危机，而是宏观图景、政策逻辑与资产供需结构深刻变迁下 的必然结果。面对利率中枢的长期性下移与收益来源的结构性收窄，投资策略的升级不再是选择题，而 是生存题。2026年资产配置的主旋律，或是从"债市阿尔法"的挖掘，全面转向以"固收+"为枢纽的多资 产动态平衡能力的构建。 一、规则重塑：从"持有到期"到"平衡阿尔法" 纯债投资的传统收益来源无外乎票息与资本利得。然而，当前这两大支柱均面临显著挑战，其风险收益 比已发生根本性变化。 首先， ...

一晃之间2025年的日历就还剩下几页没翻了。 纵然年尾市场经历了一些波动，但无可否认，2025年是难得的资产大年，投资体验步入春天。这也是复杂的一年：过去大类资产间那些看似规律的相关性 与负相关性，在今年并不总是奏效。 这一年，A股市场在前行中校准航向，投资不再是与"堂吉诃德的风车"搏斗,而是一场关于产业趋势、估值重塑与全球定价权的深度再平衡。 该如何记忆一整年的市场？跟随指数的脉络。指数本质是市场用真金白银投票形成的动态共识。理解指数，便是理解市场在特定时期的集体判断。 未来，跟踪共识、解读共识，将成为投资者在市场中重要的生存技能。此时，一些年度记忆涌上心头，我们来做一个2025年指数投资回忆与复盘。 #时光锚点 春夏秋冬的潮汐 注：指数历史走势不代表具体产品业绩，不预示未来表现，也不代表投资建议。 春 · 科技重估的"东方既白" 蛇年伊始，以DeepSeek为代表的AI突破，重塑了市场对中国科技叙事的态度。AI、算力、端侧Agent、垂直应用…科技树的各个分支都迎来了可预见的未 来。 这一年，即便没有买到翻倍的5G通信，买了科创、创业板宽基，也能有不错的收益。走了三年坎坷路的科创板，终于"换了一个方向，奔 ...

Core Insights - The yield of money market funds has been on a downward trend, with over 80 funds having a seven-day annualized yield below 1% as of October 16 [1][2] - Despite the declining yields, the total scale of money market funds in China has increased significantly, reaching approximately 14.81 trillion yuan by the end of August, up from 13.61 trillion yuan at the end of last year [3][6] - The market is witnessing a paradox where the yield of money market funds is decreasing while their scale continues to grow, reflecting a shift in investor behavior towards stable returns amid low-risk preferences [6][11] Money Market Fund Performance - Recent fee reductions by several fund companies have not significantly improved the attractiveness of money market funds, as yields remain low [1] - Only 17 out of 960 money market ETFs have yielded over 1% year-to-date, indicating a challenging environment for these products [2][6] - The average seven-day annualized yield for money market funds has dropped to levels that are even lower than traditional bank deposit products [1][2] Investor Behavior and Market Trends - The current environment of low interest rates has led to an "asset shortage," causing conservative investors to seek stable investment options [6][11] - The demand for liquidity has increased among residents, while their risk appetite remains low, making money market funds a preferred choice for many [6] - The volatility in the equity market has also contributed to a temporary shift of funds into money market products as investors await more stable investment opportunities [6] Alternative Investment Options - Short-term bond funds have emerged as a viable alternative, offering higher yields (2.8%-3.2%) and better liquidity compared to money market funds [7][9] - Dividend-paying assets are gaining popularity, with the "dividend index" showing stable returns and low volatility, making it an attractive option for conservative investors [11][12] - The performance of short-term bond funds has been consistent, with many achieving positive annual returns over the past 19 years [7][9]

Core Viewpoint - Dividend assets are characterized by stable performance and sustainable cash flow, providing investors with consistent high dividend returns, making them attractive investment opportunities [1] Group 1: Dividend Asset Characteristics - Dividend assets offer higher dividend yield levels, sustainable cash flow, robust financial structures, and maintenance capital expenditures [1] - The average cash dividend payout ratio for Hong Kong stocks from 2017 to 2024 is 44%, significantly higher than the 36% for A-shares [1] - The dividend yield of the Hang Seng Composite Index is 2.9%, compared to 1.9% for the Wind All A-Share Index [1] Group 2: Valuation and Sector Distribution - The valuation levels of dividend assets in Hong Kong are relatively lower, with the Hang Seng High Dividend Yield Index PE and PB at 7.2 times and 0.6 times, respectively, compared to 7.9 times and 0.8 times for the CSI Dividend Total Return Index [1] - The proportion of high dividend assets in Hong Kong is higher, with a more diverse industry distribution, while A-shares predominantly feature high dividend assets in sectors like banking and petrochemicals [1]

Market Overview - Since September, the A-share market has experienced fluctuations and adjustments, with increased risk aversion leading some funds to shift towards dividend assets characterized by low valuations and high dividends [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index has dropped by 1.18% since September, indicating a structural divergence in the market [2] Sector Performance - The defense, computer, and electronics sectors, which previously led the market, have seen significant corrections, with the defense sector index declining over 10% [2] - Conversely, cyclical sectors such as electric equipment, non-ferrous metals, and public utilities have strengthened, with the electric equipment sector rising over 5% [2] - The strong performance of cyclical sectors is attributed to steady demand recovery and the appeal of high dividend yields in the current market environment [2] Stock Characteristics - Over 3,000 stocks have declined since September, with more than 450 stocks falling over 10%, while over 400 stocks have risen more than 10% [3] - Stocks that have increased by at least 10% exhibit significant high dividend characteristics, with their average market capitalization below 15 billion and average P/E ratios lower than those of declining stocks [4] Fund Flows - Dividend assets have attracted significant capital, with dividend-themed ETFs seeing a net inflow of over 800 million, while other sectors like technology and AI have experienced substantial outflows [5] - Financing balances in sectors such as electric equipment and non-ferrous metals have increased, while sectors like defense and computing have seen declines [5] Stability and Risk Buffer - Dividend assets have shown notable resilience during market downturns, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index in several instances since 2020 [6][7] - The dividend index has a lower P/E ratio compared to consumer and technology indices, indicating a more attractive valuation for risk-averse investors [8] Investment Strategy - The dividend sector is seen as a strong defensive choice in a volatile market, while the consumer sector offers stable returns and growth potential for long-term investors [9] - The technology sector, despite its high growth potential, carries investment risks due to lower dividend yields and higher valuations [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Layout of the bottom - position is as important as flexible offense. A basket of "high - dividend × low - volatility" dividend assets can provide a natural "shock absorber" for the portfolio, and the combination can withstand extreme market conditions by suppressing volatility with stable cash flows and low β and then capturing market mismatches with the remaining positions [3]. - To amplify returns in the dividend pool, a dual - screening approach is more reliable than relying solely on the "high - dividend" indicator. Adding a second filter such as low - volatility, earnings quality, or institutional holdings can eliminate potential risks and further increase the returns of general dividend assets [3]. - On top of the dividend bottom - position, there are systematic excess opportunities from the left - to - right shift of the industrial cycle. Priority should be given to companies with stable cash flows despite pressured profits. Industries such as cement, silicone, and phosphate chemicals are currently in the preferred range, while the photovoltaic chain is still in a state of "double losses in profit and cash flow". The overall allocation strategy involves initially establishing an observation position, increasing the position after confirming the leading indicators of the profit inflection point, and exiting when profits weaken again or the gross margin is inverted [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bottom - Position Allocation Necessity: "Pure Left" and "Pure Right" Are Not Desirable - In a market with an increasing industry rotation center, it is crucial to build a long - term core position first. A 15 - year quarterly rotation experiment on 31 Shenwan primary industries shows that both extreme left - side bottom - fishing and extreme right - side chasing result in single - digit annualized returns and significant drawdowns. In contrast, a dividend portfolio characterized by "high - dividend × low - volatility" can provide double - digit annualized returns and keep drawdowns within an acceptable range. Therefore, increasing the exposure of "high - dividend + low - β" in the bottom - position can provide a safety cushion for the portfolio [7]. - Dividend assets are the optimal core bottom - position in terms of return - to - drawdown. Historical stress tests show that the dividend index has shallower drawdowns, a stable 3 - year rolling Sharpe ratio, and does not require market timing in the long - term perspective. It also has higher probabilities of achieving positive returns in different holding periods compared to most broad - based and style indices [10][12][21]. 3.2 Dividend Yield Single - Factor Trap - Selecting stocks based solely on the "high - dividend" factor often leads to choosing high - volatility stocks with limited return increases and large drawdowns. Adding a second filter such as low - volatility or earnings quality can improve the overall cost - effectiveness. Statistical regression shows that the dividend yield alone has a weak explanatory power for future returns [29]. - Several case studies illustrate different types of "false high - dividend" traps. For example, some companies rely on one - time gains to support high dividends, some have high dividends due to falling stock prices rather than improved profitability, and some have high dividends at the peak of the business cycle or due to high leverage. To avoid these traps, specific financial and operational criteria need to be set [37][40][44]. 3.3 High - Dividend Smart - Beta's Distortion Risk - Modified dividend indices such as "Dividend Quality" and "Dividend Potential" have larger fluctuations and deeper drawdowns than the CSI Dividend Index. Their style drift and uncontrolled risk exposure lead to higher volatility, especially in bear markets. The main reasons are their high - concentration weighting, high - valuation requirements, and frequent chasing of market highs [60][64]. - The CSI Dividend Index selects 100 stocks based on a three - year dividend yield with a diversified weighting, while the Dividend Quality and Dividend Potential indices select 50 stocks by adding factors such as ROE and EPS growth, with a more concentrated and high - chasing weighting. As a result, they are more likely to suffer from double - kills of earnings and valuation when the market weakens [64]. 3.4 Potential Ways to Enhance Dividend Low - Volatility - **Dividend + Pricing Power Approach**: Traditional high - dividend indices have several drawbacks, including style drift, inclusion of high - risk high - dividend stocks, and right - side trading characteristics. A comprehensive scoring system based on pricing power, price - to - earnings ratio, and stability can be used to select the top 20 stocks for a portfolio. A ten - year back - test shows that this combination has better performance in terms of cumulative return, annualized return, and drawdown control compared to the CSI Dividend Index [83][84]. - **Considering Institutional Participation Rate**: Incorporating institutional holdings into high - dividend screening reveals that stocks with high institutional participation (≥20%) from stable - cash - flow industries have better risk - return profiles, including higher cumulative returns, greater upside potential, and controlled drawdowns. In contrast, stocks with low institutional participation (<20%) from cyclical industries perform less well. Therefore, combining high - dividends with institutional recognition can build a safer and more sustainable dividend portfolio [89]. 3.5 Bottom - Position Is Not Just Dividends: Quality Low - Volatility and Cash Cows - The "quality + low - volatility" dual - screened bottom - position established in June 2020 can achieve a balance between offense and defense. By filtering out high - leverage and low - resilience companies and compressing risk thresholds, it has achieved a five - year rolling net value increase of about 1.6 times, with stable single - digit annualized returns and significantly reduced volatility and drawdowns compared to ordinary low - volatility strategies [94]. - The long - term returns of dividend assets mainly come from stable dividends and profits rather than valuation increases. From 2014 - 2025, the annualized total returns of Dividend Low - Volatility and CSI Dividend after reinvestment were 13.9% and 13.2% respectively, with dividend contributions exceeding 9 percentage points and accounting for over 70% of the total returns [98]. - The cash - cow enhancement framework uses six dimensions to examine potential risks in high - dividend portfolios and provides corresponding enhancement measures. These measures include equal - weighting industries and quality sorting to address concentration risks, using free - cash - flow and growth thresholds to eliminate "high - dividend traps", and implementing valuation gates and hedging strategies to manage valuation risks [108]. 3.6 Industrial Cycle Reversal: From Left to Right - At the inflection point of the industrial cycle, multi - dimensional indicators such as fundamentals, inventory, price, valuation, and funds often show concurrent inflection points. The consistency in the industry dimension, from raw material prices to mid - stream production and downstream demand, can improve the reliability of inflection - point signals. For example, the anti - involution market rhythm is often in line with this "consistency chain" [111][112]. - At the company level, by dividing samples into leading, mid - stream, and tail companies, monitoring the second - order derivatives of 10 key indicators can help identify the acceleration of marginal improvements in demand, pricing, or cash flows. When at least three indicators in any two of the three sample layers show positive second - order derivatives, it can be regarded as a company - level consistency inflection point [114]. - The industrial cycle reversal framework uses a "three - light" approach to determine investment opportunities. When the three conditions of valuation repair, profit - cash flow resonance improvement, and completion of inventory reduction and demand expansion are met simultaneously, it indicates a three - dimensional resonance of supply - demand, profit, and sentiment, and investors can make aggressive investments. Otherwise, they should continue to hold the dividend bottom - position [115].

Tax Policy Changes - On August 1, 2025, the Ministry of Finance announced the resumption of value-added tax (VAT) on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds starting August 8, 2025[1] - Existing bonds issued before this date will continue to be exempt from VAT until maturity, creating a "new and old distinction" in tax application[6] Reasons for Tax Resumption - The historical mission of the tax exemption policy has been completed, as the bond market has grown significantly, now ranking second globally[3] - The resumption aims to adjust the funding structure and prevent excessive liquidity from being trapped in interest-bearing bonds, thereby increasing fiscal revenue and alleviating fiscal pressure[4] Financial Impact - The short-term revenue from the resumption of VAT on interest income is estimated to be around 34 billion yuan[5] - The tax revenue is expected to increase further as the scale of new debt issuance expands over time[5] Market Implications - In the short term, the resumption of VAT is likely to push interest rates down and create pricing differences between new and old bonds[8] - Long-term effects may be bearish for interest-bearing bonds as the cost advantage diminishes, potentially shifting investment towards credit bonds and dividend assets[8] Market Trends - Since mid-July, bond market volatility has increased significantly, influenced by liquidity conditions and strong stock market performance[9] - The 10-year government bond yield has fluctuated, reaching a high of approximately 1.75%[9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift in investment strategies as money market fund yields approach 1%, leading to a growing concern among the public regarding "yield anxiety" and the need for diversified investment approaches in a low-interest-rate environment [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Strategy Insights - Investors are encouraged to transition from "single asset" approaches to "allocation thinking" to meet their yield goals due to declining yields in the domestic bond market and the entry of money market and deposit rates into the "1% era" [1][2]. - Five key tasks for effective diversification and dynamic allocation are outlined: 1. Core asset allocation should address market uncertainties through diversification 2. Acknowledge the low yield in the bond market due to economic factors and liquidity 3. Maintain a medium to long-term perspective with tactical allocation cycles suggested to roll over every six months to a year 4. Avoid judging tactical allocation correctness based on short-term market movements 5. Embrace contrarian investing as an effective long-term strategy in a low-interest-rate environment [2]. Group 2: Target Investor Profiles - Dividend assets are highlighted for their "quasi-bond" characteristics in a low-interest environment, suitable for three types of investors: 1. Conservative investors dissatisfied with bond yields seeking equity investments 2. Long-term asset allocators 3. Investors aiming to reduce portfolio volatility through a barbell strategy - Investors are advised to focus on dividend yield and valuation matching, with a recommended investment horizon of no less than three years [2]. Group 3: Company Overview - As an independent third-party fund distribution platform under the Ping An Group, the company aims to provide customized services based on the "target allocation method" to meet client investment needs [3]. - The company has developed a comprehensive member rights system covering various aspects such as funds, lifestyle services, travel, health insurance, and member care, while continuously exploring new wealth management models [3].

Economic Overview - The internal momentum of the US economy is weakening, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNOW model predicting a 0.4 percentage point decline in Q2 real GDP growth to 3.4% [2] - Personal consumption expenditure (PCE) growth has decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 1.9%, primarily due to a slowdown in the services sector [2] - Private investment growth (excluding inventory) has dropped by 0.8 percentage points to 0.4%, with significant contractions in real estate (-4.4%) and construction (-3.4%) [2] - The job market remains stable, with weekly initial jobless claims falling by 0.3 thousand to 245 thousand, aligning with seasonal levels [2] - The worsening situation in the Middle East is increasing inflationary pressures, as indicated by the Truflation daily inflation index rising by 8 basis points to 2.14% [2] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Fiscal policy remains expansionary, with a weekly fiscal surplus of $18.5 billion, which is weaker than seasonal levels but stronger than historical averages [3] - The Federal Reserve maintained a wait-and-see stance during the June meeting, with the dot plot indicating that 7 out of 18 members do not expect rate cuts this year [3] Market Performance - Overseas markets showed muted performance last week, with the US dollar slightly rebounding and US Treasury yields fluctuating [4] - The US stock market was nearly flat, up 0.1%, with expectations that the most significant tariff impacts have passed, potentially leading to a renewed upward trend driven by corporate earnings resilience [4] - However, high valuations and increased tariffs may limit upward potential [4] - The strategy suggests maintaining a neutral position on US stocks with a balanced allocation [4] Chinese Economic Conditions - Domestic demand shows mixed signals, with strong automotive consumption but a slowdown in real estate transactions [6] - In June, average daily retail sales of passenger cars reached 48,000 units, a 17% year-on-year increase [7] - Real estate sales are declining, with new home transaction volumes in 30 major cities dropping by 8.6% year-on-year [7] - The land market is also cooling, with land supply and transaction volumes decreasing [7] External Demand and Trade - High-frequency data indicates a potential slowdown in China's export growth in June, with port cargo and container throughput growth rates declining [8] - Exports to the US may have seen some recovery, while exports to non-US regions are expected to decline from previous highs [8] Fiscal Performance - In May, fiscal revenue growth slowed, with public budget revenue increasing by only 0.1% year-on-year [9] - Tax revenue growth decreased to 0.6%, while non-tax revenue turned negative for the first time in 2024 [9] - Government spending growth was also slower, with a 2.6% increase year-on-year [9] Market Strategy - The bond market is showing strength, with short-term rates performing well due to a stable funding environment [10] - The A-share market experienced a slight decline, with uncertainties in corporate earnings and the need for further policy support for real estate and consumption [12] - The Hong Kong stock market is facing risks of correction, with high valuations and unstable fundamentals [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for global asset allocation strategies centered around three main factors: de-globalization, debt cycles, and AI industry trends [1][2] - The proposed investment strategy is a "global barbell strategy," which includes stable assets on one end and high-yield, high-volatility assets on the other [1][2] - The current global economic uncertainty necessitates a focus on asymmetric pricing opportunities within various asset classes [2][3] Group 2 - The analysis indicates that the U.S. trade policy is unlikely to reverse the three underlying logics of the new investment paradigm, potentially increasing global political and economic uncertainty [2] - The recommendation includes a focus on defensive sectors in response to potential U.S. economic recession risks, alongside the necessity of gold as a sovereign credit asset [3] - The domestic market is currently in a debt contraction phase, transitioning from "passive leverage" to "active deleveraging," suggesting that domestic interest rate bonds hold long-term investment value [4] Group 3 - The "barbell strategy" is also applicable to strategic asset allocation in China, with a continued positive outlook on interest rate bonds and a focus on dividend assets and AI technology [4] - The AI sector, particularly represented by the "Tech Seven Sisters" in the U.S. market, has shown strong performance, but significant investment risks are present this year [4] - Recommended sectors include resilient dividend assets such as utilities, telecommunications, and banking, as well as industries benefiting from the AI trend, particularly those in the infrastructure to downstream application transition [4]