Core Viewpoint - The British pound has declined against the euro due to weak economic data and tightening fiscal policies, leading to expectations of more aggressive interest rate cuts by the Bank of England [1] Economic Data - Recent economic data from the UK has been weak, which has increased expectations for further interest rate cuts this year [1] - Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey indicated that larger rate cuts may occur if signs of a slowdown in the labor market emerge [1] Fiscal Policy - The UK government's proposed fiscal rules may lead to increased taxation aimed at strengthening public finances [1] - The tightening of fiscal policy is contributing to the downward pressure on the pound [1] Currency Movement - The euro to pound exchange rate (EUR/GBP) reached a high of 0.8696, reflecting the pound's decline [1]

Group 1: General Information - Report title: Gold, Silver Futures Variety Weekly Report [2] - Report period: June 30 - July 4, 2025 [1] Group 2: Gold Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, and it may be at the end of the trend [7] - Trend judgment logic: Last week, gold was affected by geopolitical conflicts, Fed policy divergence, tariff policy nodes, and weak economic data, showing a volatile downward trend. Future gold prices need to focus on the Fed's policy shift timing, the sustainability of global central bank gold purchases, and the inflation path. Geopolitical black - swan events are the biggest upside risk factor [7] - Mid - term strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [8] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: It was expected that the main gold contract 2508 would fluctuate at a high level in the short term. It was recommended to wait and see. The lower support was 766 - 775, and the upper pressure was 800 - 808 [11] - This week's strategy suggestion: The main gold contract 2510 is short - biased in the short term. The lower support is 754 - 760, and the upper pressure is 784 - 790 [12] 3. Relevant Data - The report provides data on Shanghai Gold futures and COMEX gold price trends, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [19][21][23] Group 3: Silver Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in a sideways movement, and it may be close to the end of the trend [33] - Trend judgment logic: Last week, silver showed a volatile trend affected by supply - demand fundamentals, Fed policy expectations, and geopolitical risks. Future positive factors for silver prices include strengthened Fed rate - cut expectations, global liquidity easing, and a weaker US dollar. The decline in the gold - silver ratio attracts capital inflows, and geopolitical risks increase hedging demand, with an annual supply gap of 3659 tons. Potential pressures are the high US Treasury yields increasing holding costs and weak manufacturing suppressing industrial demand [33] - Mid - term strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [34] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: It was expected that the silver contract 2510 would run strongly. The lower support interval was 8400 - 8500, and the upper pressure was 8900 - 9000 [36] - This week's strategy suggestion: It is expected that the silver contract 2508 will run strongly. The lower support interval is 8300 - 8500, and the upper pressure is 8900 - 9000 [36] 3. Relevant Data - The report provides data on Shanghai Silver futures and COMEX silver price trends, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [43][45][47]

Group 1 - The geopolitical risks in the Middle East are increasing the demand for gold as a safe haven, with ongoing conflicts and military deployments raising market concerns about escalation [3] - The strong US dollar and weak economic data are suppressing gold prices, with the dollar index rising 0.7% to 98.83, marking the largest single-day increase in nearly a month, while US retail sales fell 0.9% month-on-month, the largest decline in four months [3] - The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision is creating a cautious market sentiment, with expectations that the Fed will maintain the policy rate between 4.25%-4.50%, despite calls for a rate cut [3] Group 2 - On the daily chart, gold prices rebounded strongly after hitting a low of $3366, closing around $3388, indicating a fierce market battle between bulls and bears [3] - The short-term resistance for gold is at the 3405-3410 range, while key support levels are at $3364 and $3345, which are critical for maintaining bullish momentum [3] - The four-hour chart shows a potential double bottom formation, with the 10-day and 20-day moving averages providing crucial support [3]

Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - Geopolitical risks are supporting gold prices due to the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, with the U.S. increasing military presence in the region, raising concerns about further conflict escalation [3] - The U.S. dollar strengthened significantly, with the index rising 0.7% to 98.83, while U.S. retail sales data showed a larger-than-expected decline of 0.9% in May, indicating consumer caution amid trade uncertainties [4] - The market is cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with expectations that the policy rate will remain unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, despite calls from President Trump for a one percentage point cut [5] Group 2: Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold prices are in a state of indecision after a significant drop, closing with a doji candlestick, indicating a search for balance between buyers and sellers [6] - The four-hour chart shows gold prices in an ascending wedge pattern, with key support at 3470/3463; a break below this level could signal a potential downward trend [9] - Resistance levels to watch include 3396 and 3420, with a breakthrough at 3396 potentially providing bullish momentum for gold prices [9]

Market Performance - On June 17, US stock markets opened lower and closed down, with the Nasdaq falling by 0.91%, the S&P 500 down by 0.84%, and the Dow Jones decreasing by 0.7% [1] - Major tech stocks experienced declines, with Apple dropping over 1%, while Microsoft, Nvidia, Google, Netflix, Amazon, and Meta saw slight decreases; Intel, however, recorded a small increase [1] - Airline stocks were among the hardest hit, with JetBlue down nearly 8%, United Airlines down over 6%, and Delta Air Lines and Alaska Airlines both down over 4% [1] - Tesla's stock fell by 3.88%, resulting in a market value loss of $41.2 billion (approximately 296 billion RMB) [1] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 1.77%, with several popular Chinese stocks declining, including Hesai down over 6%, WeRide down over 5%, and Li Auto down over 4% [3] Commodity Prices - FTSE A50 futures closed down 0.22% at 13,320 points [4] - International crude oil futures saw significant gains, with WTI July crude oil rising by $3.07 (4.28%) to $74.84 per barrel, and Brent August crude oil increasing by $3.22 (4.4%) to $76.45 per barrel [4] - COMEX gold futures fell by 0.37% to $3,404.8 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures rose by 1.97% to $37.165 per ounce [4] Economic Data - US retail sales fell by 0.9% month-on-month in May, marking the second consecutive month of decline, indicating consumer concerns over tariffs and personal finances [5] - The US industrial output also decreased, attributed to a decline in utility output and challenges in manufacturing amid slowing demand [5] - Confidence among US homebuilders has dropped to its lowest level since December 2022 [5] Federal Reserve Outlook - Investors are anticipating economic data volatility due to ongoing trade policy impacts, with signs of weakness emerging in the economy and consumer performance [6] - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may implement two rate cuts this year, with the first expected in October, while maintaining current rates in June and July [6]