在美国总统特朗普宣布解职美联储理事丽莎·库克（Lisa Cook）后，美元、美债、美股期货等美元资产 再遭新一轮抛售，避险资产黄金上涨。这背后的主要逻辑在于，市场担心，美联储独立性将进一步受到 损害。 自1913年美联储成立以来，虽然美国总统偶尔会抨击其政策选择，但从未有美国总统罢免过美联储七人 理事会成员。布鲁金斯学会高级研究员克拉恩（Aaron Klein）直言："这是对美联储独立性的致命一 击。特朗普已表明态度，将不择手段地让美联储做他想做的事。" 抛售美元资产理由再加一 当地时间25日晚，特朗普在社交媒体"真实社交"上发表公开信称："根据《美国宪法》第二条和经修订 的《1913年联邦储备法》所授予我的权力，我特此解除您（库克）在联邦储备委员会的职务，立即生 效。" 根据《联邦储备法》第10条，总统能"因故"解职理事会成员。库克于2022年获得时任美国总统拜 登提名担任美联储理事，任期本将持续至2038年。 库克随后反击称，特朗普无权解雇她，她也不会辞职。库克的律师拉威尔（Abbe Lowell）表示，他们 计划采取"任何必要的行动来防止"特朗普的"非法行为"。"特朗普总统声称'有理由'解雇我，但法律上 ...

Core Viewpoint - Asian investors are significantly selling off their dollar assets, potentially amounting to $2 trillion, which could impact global markets amid the dual pressures of the Trump trade war and a weakening dollar fundamental [1]. Group 1: Dollar Asset Sell-off - Stephen Jen warns that the sell-off of dollar assets by Asian countries could lead to a "tsunami" pressure of $2.5 trillion on the world reserve currency, the dollar [1]. - The report by Eurizon SLJ Capital indicates that Asian exporters and investors have accumulated substantial dollar reserves, which have widened the trade surplus between Asia and the U.S. [1]. - The ongoing trade war led by Trump may prompt some Asian investors to repatriate large amounts of funds, resulting in significant outflows from the dollar [1]. Group 2: Currency Trends - The dollar index has dropped approximately 8% since its peak in February, with all Asian currencies appreciating against the dollar over the past month [3]. - If this trend continues, it could exert immense pressure on long-term dollar bullish positions [3]. - The Taiwanese dollar has seen a significant appreciation, surpassing 30 TWD per USD for the first time since summer 2022, driven by hedging activities and previous financing arbitrage trades [6][7]. Group 3: Regional Currency Impact - UBS forecasts that the Taiwanese dollar may continue to rise, potentially triggering a regional currency response in countries like South Korea and Singapore [8]. - Countries in Asia, excluding financial centers, such as South Korea, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Indonesia, hold substantial foreign assets, which could lead to a significant decline in the dollar against these currencies if dollar assets are sold off [8].

4月29日，北京时间周二凌晨，美股三大指数涨跌不一，截至收盘，道指涨0.28%，纳指跌0.10%，标普500涨0.06%。 大型科技股涨跌不一，特斯拉涨0.33%，Meta涨0.45%，苹果涨0.41%，亚马逊跌0.68%，微软跌0.18%，谷歌A跌0.83%。 热门中概股多数上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨0.68%。蔚来涨超6%，斗鱼、理想汽车、BOSS直聘、唯品会涨超3%，有道、金山云、满帮涨超2%，京 东、腾讯音乐、新东方等小幅上涨，爱奇艺、贝壳、叮咚买菜等跌超1%，哔哩哔哩、网易、百度等小幅下跌。 在巨头公司财报未公布财报数据之前，投资者显得小心翼翼，美股表现波澜不惊。 不过，来自特朗普大票仓，也是美国制造业重镇的德克萨斯州的一项数据却让人感到不安。 周一公布的达拉斯联储制造业调查结果，可谓糟糕透顶，创下2020年5月新冠疫情高峰期以来的最低：美国4月达拉斯联储商业活动指数-35.8，预期 为-14.1，前值为-16.3。 达拉斯联储制造业指数是一项备受关注的美国德克萨斯州的制造业活动指标，该指标大幅减弱，企业高管们用"混乱"和"疯狂"等词语来形容美国总统特朗 普关税措施引发的动荡。 有受访者直接向美联 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the potential shift of foreign investors away from U.S. Treasury bonds due to increasing uncertainties surrounding U.S. economic policies and the Federal Reserve's independence [1][2] - Morgan Stanley predicts a narrowing growth gap between the U.S. and other developed economies, with U.S. growth rates expected to decline to 0.6% in 2025 and 0.5% in 2026, while the Eurozone is projected to experience a growth acceleration in 2026 [1][2] - The correlation between the U.S. stock market and the dollar has changed significantly, resembling emerging market patterns where stock market declines coincide with dollar weakness [1] Group 1 - Foreign investors may reduce their allocation to U.S. assets and increase currency hedging ratios, putting further pressure on the dollar [2] - The U.S. Treasury market, valued at approximately $27 trillion, remains unmatched in depth and liquidity compared to potential alternatives like German or Japanese government bonds [3] - Despite rising concerns boosting the relative attractiveness of the euro and yen, the lack of comparable scale and liquidity in alternative markets makes it difficult for foreign investors to exit the U.S. Treasury market en masse [3]

Core Viewpoint - The independence crisis of the Federal Reserve has triggered a significant sell-off of dollar assets, fueled by President Trump's threats to dismiss Chairman Jerome Powell, leading traders to reassess the potential for Powell's removal [1][2][5]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following comments from White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett regarding Trump's consideration of firing Powell, the dollar index fell to a three-year low [2]. - Multiple hedge funds began selling off dollar assets after Hassett's remarks, indicating a growing concern among investors [2]. - The potential for Powell's dismissal has heightened expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, resulting in an increased yield spread between long-term and short-term U.S. Treasury bonds [5]. Group 2: Legal and Political Context - Legal scholars suggest that Trump cannot easily dismiss Powell, as the Federal Reserve Act stipulates that members can only be removed for "just cause," typically interpreted as serious misconduct [8]. - The recent Supreme Court ruling in "Trump v. Wilcox" may alter the dynamics of presidential power over independent agencies, potentially expanding the president's authority to dismiss officials previously thought insulated from political influence [9]. Group 3: Implications for Financial Markets - Warnings from U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicate that any attempt to remove Powell could lead to severe market turmoil [10]. - Even critics of Powell, such as Senator Elizabeth Warren, have expressed support for the Fed's independence, highlighting the potential for market collapse if the president can dismiss the Fed chair [11]. - Analysts from Goldman Sachs warn that if the Fed succumbs to political pressure and significantly lowers rates without regard for inflation risks, it could lead to a depreciation of the dollar and a surge in gold prices [13].