该国12月经济活动也有所放缓，制造业采购经理人指数增速创下两年低点。 卢比在2025年累计下跌约5%，成为表现最差的亚洲货币，主要受到美国高额关税和投资流入疲弱的压 力。 其2026年的走势将在很大程度上取决于潜在的美印贸易协议进展以及外国证券投资活动，这些因素可能 重塑去年对该货币构成压力的美元资金流。 周五（1月2日）印度卢比跌破每美元90卢比，延续前一交易日跌势，在新年开局不利，因持续的美元需 求超过了央行的干预力度。 国有银行继续代表央行出售美元以支撑本币，但未能阻止汇率跌破90关口。 基础需求依然强劲，这主要受处理托管资金流的外资银行和大型进口商支付的推动，同时外国投资者在 新年伊始成为印度股票的净卖家。 ...

Group 1 - The USD/INR exchange rate is approaching the 90.00 mark, indicating a strengthening of the Indian Rupee, influenced by the upcoming visit of U.S. Deputy Trade Representative Rick Swett to India on December 10-11 to discuss trade issues [1][3] - A key focus for India in the trade talks is to push the U.S. to lower existing tax rates on certain Indian exports, which currently face rates as high as 50%, relatively high among major U.S. trading partners [3] - Foreign institutional investors have shown a declining interest in the Indian market, with a cumulative net sell-off of ₹14,819.29 million since the beginning of December, marking five consecutive months of capital outflow [3] Group 2 - Upcoming economic data, particularly the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) set to be released, is under scrutiny, with expectations of an increase in retail inflation to 0.7% from 0.25% in October, serving as a reference for the domestic economic situation [3] - Market sentiment is cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision, with investors closely watching for indications of future interest rate paths, contributing to the further appreciation of the Indian Rupee against the USD [3][4] - The U.S. Dollar Index has slightly declined, hovering around 99.20, with market expectations leaning towards a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, marking a potential third consecutive cut [4] Group 3 - The USD/INR exchange rate is trading around 90.00, maintaining above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) of 89.6463, indicating a solid trend structure [6] - The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 62, having retreated from previous highs, suggesting strong momentum but a potential easing [6] - Sustaining above the 20-day EMA is crucial for maintaining the current trend, while a close below this level could trigger further adjustments, with market attention shifting to previous highs around 88.97 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Indian Rupee has faced significant depreciation, hitting a historic low against the US Dollar, prompting the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to intervene in the market to stabilize the currency [1][2][4]. Group 1: Currency Depreciation - The Indian Rupee fell below the psychological level of 90 against the US Dollar, reaching a low of 90.058, marking a nearly 5% depreciation for the year, making it the worst-performing currency in Asia [2][4]. - As of October 2023, foreign investors have withdrawn over $17 billion from the Indian stock market, exacerbating the downward pressure on the Rupee [5]. Group 2: Economic Factors - Key reasons for the Rupee's decline include low foreign investment inflows, record trade deficits, and uncertainties surrounding the US-India trade agreement [6][7]. - India's trade deficit surged to $32.15 billion in October, the highest in 13 months, primarily due to a 28.5% drop in exports to the US from May to October [6]. Group 3: RBI's Intervention - The RBI's intervention aims to prevent further depreciation of the Rupee, with analysts expecting the central bank to actively set a ceiling for the USD/INR exchange rate [4][6]. - Despite short-term interventions, analysts suggest that the Rupee may still face further depreciation due to underlying economic pressures, including an expanding current account deficit projected to reach 1.4% of GDP this fiscal year [4][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The RBI Governor indicated that a 3% to 3.5% annual depreciation of the Rupee is normal, focusing on curbing excessive volatility rather than maintaining a specific exchange rate [7]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that if the US-India trade agreement remains delayed, India's GDP growth may slow down, with exports expected to decline by 5.8% in the fiscal year 2026 [7].

本周二，印度卢比兑美元汇率延续了近期的平稳走势，维持在88.85附近窄幅波动。过去一周以来，该货币对始终在这一水平附近徘徊，市场交投略显清 淡。投资者正密切关注美国与印度之间贸易谈判的进展，期待双方能达成一项关键协议。 美印两国谈判代表近期多次释放积极信号，称协商已进入尾声，共识基本成型。然而，由于最终协议尚未正式落地，市场情绪仍偏谨慎，卢比走势受到一定 压制。周一，美国总统特朗普再次表达了对美印即将达成双边贸易协定的信心，并提到未来可能下调对印度商品的关税。不过，他未明确给出具体时间表， 仅表示双方"非常接近"达成一致。这一表态虽提振了市场乐观预期，但缺乏细节内容，使得投资者保持观望。 与此同时，美元指数在99.65附近持稳，整体波动有限。美国参议院近日通过了临时拨款法案，结束了持续数周的政府停摆，这一进展缓解了部分市场不确 定性。众议院议长迈克·约翰逊表示，相关法案预计将于周三获得通过。 随着美国政府机构恢复运转，市场预计一批被推迟的经济数据将陆续公布，美元可能出现较大波动。投资者将重点关注就业市场表现，以判断美联储下一步 政策动向。目前，市场对美联储在12月会议上降息的预期概率为62.4%，显示多数交易 ...

本文来自：华尔街见闻，作者：李丹、房家瑶，原文标题：《美印贸易协议还渺茫？特朗普顾问猛批印 度：赚美国的钱买普京的油》，题图来自：视觉中国 除了对印度施以新关税的"惩罚"，特朗普政府还对印度购买俄油口诛笔伐，美印达成缓和贸易冲突的协 议看来还遥遥无期。 美东时间8月18日周一，白宫贸易顾问纳瓦罗在媒体发表专栏文章，强烈批评印度在俄乌冲突后大幅进 口俄罗斯石油，称这种行为是"机会主义"，"严重破坏"了西方孤立俄方战时经济的努力，直接将矛头指 向印度政府、石油企业以及美印贸易关系。 纳瓦罗是特朗普政府推行全球性关税政策的重要幕后推手，长期持鹰派观点。在上述措辞强硬的文章 中，他将印度的贸易壁垒以及他所认为是对俄罗斯的金融支持联系起来，称这些交易都是以牺牲美国的 利益为代价。文章称： "美国消费者购买印度商品。而印度则用这些美元购买打折的俄罗斯原油。" 任职至今年1月的前驻印美大使Eric Garcetti去年曾表示，印度购买俄油"并不违规"，反而是美国政策"有 意设计的一部分"，因为石油作为大宗商品，美国不希望油价上涨。 纳瓦罗周一的恩州批评道："拜登政府对这种战略和地缘政治上的疯狂行为基本视而不见。特朗普政府 ...