周二（11月18日）亚市早盘中美元指数报99.531，日内涨幅扩大至0.36%，近三日在99.20-99.60区间震 荡偏强运行，已逼近区间上沿。美联储政策分歧主导短期走势，技术面多头结构初现，需重点关注鲍威 尔讲话对99.60阻力位的突破指引，站稳则上看99.80，若回落失守99.40短期支撑或下探99.20关键位。 经济数据方面，美国核心PCE物价指数超预期表现强化了政策谨慎的必要性，也为美元提供了实质支 撑，推动美元指数站稳关键位置。当前市场焦点高度集中于美联储主席鲍威尔的最新讲话，其对利率政 策的表态将成为短期美元指数方向的核心催化剂，指引市场重新锚定政策路径预期。 美元指数技术分析 美元指数自11月3日触及98.865阶段性低点后震荡回升，日线图已站稳20日均线支撑，形成"W底"形态 雏形。截至11月18日，近四个交易日在99.20-99.60区间窄幅整理，17日盘中最高99.477、最低99.245， 蓄势突破特征明显，短期多头结构占优但尚未形成明确趋势。支撑位呈阶梯式分布，首要支撑为99.20 （近期震荡中枢下沿），失守后下看99.10短期多空分水岭，关键强支撑在98.90；阻力端重点关注99. ...

Group 1 - President Trump signed an executive order to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, causing a decline in the US dollar and a significant rise in non-US currencies against the dollar [1][2] - Gold prices surged, reaching a two-week high, with spot gold hitting $3,386 per ounce, the highest level since August 11 [1] - Cook's dismissal marks an unprecedented action as she was the first African American woman to serve on the Federal Reserve Board, with Trump citing alleged misconduct in her mortgage dealings [1][2] Group 2 - The accusation against Cook involves declaring two properties as "primary residences," which could allow for lower mortgage rates, aligning with the Trump administration's recent opposition to diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) initiatives [2] - Trump's actions indicate an escalation in his efforts to reshape the leadership of the Federal Reserve, as he has previously pressured the Fed to lower interest rates, which officials have resisted due to inflation concerns [2] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve on September 17 are currently at 83%, with attention turning to the upcoming core PCE price index for further insights on the interest rate path [2]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts in 2025 are more likely to be driven by inflation rather than unemployment rates, as the labor market may not directly lead to rising unemployment due to immigration policies affecting labor growth [2][3] - The U.S. economy is expected to enter the second half of 2025 on an unstable foundation, with the first quarter's GDP contraction exceeding initial estimates and a low-quality rebound in the second quarter influenced by reduced trade deficits and cautious consumer and business spending [2][3] - The upcoming U.S. core PCE price index is viewed as a critical reference for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, with weak performance potentially reinforcing a dovish stance and increasing downward pressure on the dollar [1][2] Group 2 - If the U.S. adopts more closed trade policies, the Eurozone could become the largest economy outside the U.S., attracting more investment interest towards the Euro [2] - Geopolitical tensions easing have nearly completely offset the temporary support the dollar received as a safe-haven asset, while the Euro is expected to benefit from ongoing pessimism surrounding the dollar [2] - Despite $250 billion to $300 billion in tariff revenues, the rising debt levels in the U.S. are unlikely to be alleviated in the short term, as the government is not expected to implement significant tax increases or spending cuts [3]

Core Insights - The U.S. core PCE price index for March recorded an annual rate of 2.6%, marking the lowest level since June 2024, aligning with expectations [1] - The month-over-month core PCE price index for March showed a rate of 0%, the lowest since April 2020, falling short of the expected 0.1% [1]