周五公布的美国9月核心PCE物价指数年率录得2.8%，低于市场预期2.9%，前值为2.9%。 媒体分析指出，消费者支出的回落表明，在史上持续时间最长的政府关门于10月1日开始之前，美国经济最主要的增长引擎就已经 在放缓。尽管近期数据显示，"黑色星期五"的销售表现稳健，消费者在积极寻找折扣，但人们对就业市场的担忧正在加剧，而当前 的消费增长主要由收入更高的家庭推动。 密歇根大学公布的数据显示，12月消费者信心初值指数从11月的51升至53.3。美国12月密歇根大学1年通胀预期初值4.1%，创下自 今年1月以来的最低水平，预期4.5%，前值4.5%。 全球最大白银etf--iShares Silver Trust持仓报告显示，12月5日白银etf持有量为15925.21吨，较上一交易日减少169.24吨。上周五（12 月5日）现货白银尾盘收于58.28美元/盎司，上涨2.07%，盘中白银价格最高上探至59.32美元/盎司，最低触及56.85美元/盎司。 【市场要闻速递】 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 | | | 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 COMEX 黄金期货跌 0.36%报 4227.7 美元/盎司；COMEX 白银期货涨 2.28%报 58.8 美 | | | | | 元/盎司。沪金收涨 0.15%报 958.72 元/克，沪银涨 2.67%报 13788 元/千克。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、截至 12 月 5 日，全球最大黄金 ETF--SPDR Gold Trust 持仓较上日减少 0.33 吨， | | | | | 当前持仓量为 1050.25 吨。全球最大黄金 ETF--SPDR Gold Trust 持仓较上日减少 | | | | | 0.33 吨，当前持仓量为 1050.25 吨。 | | | | | 2、据 CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储 12 月降息 25 个基点的可能性约为 87%。 | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the recent fluctuations in the US dollar index, driven by Federal Reserve policy disagreements and economic data performance [1][2] - The US dollar index has shown a strong upward movement since hitting a low of 98.865 on November 3, forming a potential "W-bottom" pattern [2] - The market is currently focused on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's upcoming speech, which is expected to be a key catalyst for the dollar index's direction [1] Group 2 - As of November 18, the dollar index is trading within a narrow range of 99.20-99.60, with a recent high of 99.477 and a low of 99.245, indicating a buildup for a potential breakout [2] - The probability of maintaining interest rates in December has risen to 57.1%, while the likelihood of a rate cut has decreased to 42.9%, providing support for the dollar index [1] - Technical indicators show a bullish structure with the RSI reading at 52 and MACD showing signs of a bullish crossover, suggesting a moderate release of bullish momentum [2]

Group 1 - President Trump signed an executive order to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, causing a decline in the US dollar and a significant rise in non-US currencies against the dollar [1][2] - Gold prices surged, reaching a two-week high, with spot gold hitting $3,386 per ounce, the highest level since August 11 [1] - Cook's dismissal marks an unprecedented action as she was the first African American woman to serve on the Federal Reserve Board, with Trump citing alleged misconduct in her mortgage dealings [1][2] Group 2 - The accusation against Cook involves declaring two properties as "primary residences," which could allow for lower mortgage rates, aligning with the Trump administration's recent opposition to diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) initiatives [2] - Trump's actions indicate an escalation in his efforts to reshape the leadership of the Federal Reserve, as he has previously pressured the Fed to lower interest rates, which officials have resisted due to inflation concerns [2] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve on September 17 are currently at 83%, with attention turning to the upcoming core PCE price index for further insights on the interest rate path [2]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts in 2025 are more likely to be driven by inflation rather than unemployment rates, as the labor market may not directly lead to rising unemployment due to immigration policies affecting labor growth [2][3] - The U.S. economy is expected to enter the second half of 2025 on an unstable foundation, with the first quarter's GDP contraction exceeding initial estimates and a low-quality rebound in the second quarter influenced by reduced trade deficits and cautious consumer and business spending [2][3] - The upcoming U.S. core PCE price index is viewed as a critical reference for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, with weak performance potentially reinforcing a dovish stance and increasing downward pressure on the dollar [1][2] Group 2 - If the U.S. adopts more closed trade policies, the Eurozone could become the largest economy outside the U.S., attracting more investment interest towards the Euro [2] - Geopolitical tensions easing have nearly completely offset the temporary support the dollar received as a safe-haven asset, while the Euro is expected to benefit from ongoing pessimism surrounding the dollar [2] - Despite $250 billion to $300 billion in tariff revenues, the rising debt levels in the U.S. are unlikely to be alleviated in the short term, as the government is not expected to implement significant tax increases or spending cuts [3]

Core Insights - The U.S. core PCE price index for March recorded an annual rate of 2.6%, marking the lowest level since June 2024, aligning with expectations [1] - The month-over-month core PCE price index for March showed a rate of 0%, the lowest since April 2020, falling short of the expected 0.1% [1]