Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The overall market sentiment has shown a mixed picture. Overseas, the global risk appetite has cooled to some extent, while in China, the risk appetite has increased due to policy stimulus expectations and the extension of the tariff truce period. Different asset classes have different short - term trends and investment suggestions, and various commodity sectors also face different supply - demand and price situations. [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas, the US dollar reduced its decline after the Fed meeting minutes showed only two policymakers supported last month's rate cut, and the global risk appetite cooled. In China, the economic data in July slowed down and fell short of expectations. The Chinese Premier indicated measures to boost consumption and stabilize the real estate market, and the Sino - US tariff truce was extended by 90 days, increasing domestic risk appetite. For assets, the stock index is expected to oscillate strongly at a short - term high, and it is advisable to be cautious when going long; the treasury bond is expected to oscillate and correct at a high level, and it is advisable to wait and see; for the commodity sector, black metals are expected to correct in the short term, non - ferrous metals to oscillate, energy and chemicals to oscillate weakly, and precious metals to oscillate at a high level, all requiring cautious observation. [2] Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as liquor, semiconductors, and small metals, the domestic stock market rose significantly. The economic data in July was weak, but policy stimulus expectations increased, and the short - term macro - upward driving force strengthened. The market's trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and trade negotiation progress. It is advisable to be cautious when going long in the short term. [3] Precious Metals - Precious metals rose on Wednesday. The Fed meeting minutes showed only two policymakers advocated rate cuts, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September was 83%. Weak employment data and a weakening US dollar index led to the rise of precious metals. The long - term positive logic of precious metals remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to entry opportunities at key points. [4] Black Metals - **Steel**: On Wednesday, the domestic steel futures and spot markets were flat, with prices slightly falling and low trading volume. Demand weakened, and inventories in some areas increased. Supply of rebar was relatively low, and that of plates was stable. There were rumors of production control in Cangzhou, and iron - water production may further decline. It is advisable to view the steel market with a weak - oscillation mindset in the short term. [4][5] - **Iron Ore**: On Wednesday, the futures and spot prices of iron ore continued to be weak. Although steel mill profits were high and iron - water production rebounded slightly last week, with the approaching of important events in early September, production - restriction policies may be further strengthened, and port transportation and ore handling volumes will be affected. The supply side increased, and port inventories were accumulating. Iron ore prices may weaken in the short term. [5] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Wednesday, the spot and futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese fell. Manganese ore prices continued to decline. Manufacturers were actively starting production, and some had plans to increase production. The开工 rate and daily output of both silicon manganese and silicon iron increased. It is advisable to view the ferroalloy market with a weak - oscillation mindset in the short term. [6] - **Soda Ash**: On Wednesday, the main soda - ash contract was weak. The supply - surplus pattern remained unchanged, with new installations expected to be put into operation in the fourth quarter. Demand was weak, and profits decreased week - on - week. Soda ash is likely to fall rather than rise due to high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. [7] - **Glass**: On Wednesday, the main glass contract was weak. Supply changes were small, demand was still weak in the real - estate industry, and although downstream deep - processing orders increased in mid - August, overall demand remained stable. Profits decreased as prices fell. Glass prices follow the real - world logic due to near - month delivery. [7] Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: With the approaching of the Jackson Hole central bank meeting, the expectation of a rate cut has increased, which is short - term positive for copper prices. However, high tariffs and the slowdown of the US economy pose risks. Copper mine production is growing faster than expected, and domestic demand will weaken marginally. The strong copper price is hard to sustain. [8][9] - **Aluminum**: On August 19, the US added 407 product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list. Aluminum prices fell slightly on Wednesday. The fundamentals of aluminum have weakened, with domestic social inventories increasing significantly and LME inventories also rising. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, with limited medium - term upside. [9] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, increasing production costs and causing losses for some regenerative aluminum plants. Demand is weak as it is the off - season. Aluminum alloy prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but the upside is limited. [10] - **Tin**: The combined开工 rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi decreased slightly. The supply of tin ore is tight but improving, and refined tin production has not decreased significantly. Demand is weak, and although inventory decreased this week, downstream procurement is still cautious. Tin prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, and the upside is restricted. [10] - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Wednesday, lithium carbonate futures hit the daily limit down. The prices of lithium carbonate and lithium ore decreased. The industry's profit situation has improved, and production enthusiasm is high. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to oscillate at a high level. [11] - **Industrial Silicon**: On Wednesday, the main industrial - silicon contract fell. The spot price decreased, and the futures price was at a discount. With the weakening of black metals and the oscillation of polysilicon, industrial silicon is expected to oscillate within a range. [11] - **Polysilicon**: On Wednesday, the main polysilicon contract fell slightly. Spot prices were stable, and the number of warehouse receipts increased, indicating increased hedging pressure. The photovoltaic industry is expected to regulate the market, and polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate at a high level, with a possibility of weakening later. [12][13] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: EIA data showed a significant decrease in US crude oil and gasoline inventories last week, leading to a rebound in oil prices. However, Cushing inventory has increased for 7 consecutive weeks. Due to the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks and long - term supply increases, the long - term outlook for oil prices is still bearish, and short - term stability is expected. [14] - **Asphalt**: The processing margin of asphalt is approaching the previous low, but the crude - oil processing margin has rebounded slightly, providing some price support. The spot price has slightly recovered, but inventory de - stocking is limited. With the expected decline of crude oil prices due to OPEC+ production increases, asphalt is expected to remain in a weak - oscillation pattern. [14] - **PX**: The adjustment of upstream refinery capacity in China has strengthened the support for downstream chemicals. Although PX is in a tight supply situation in the short term, it is expected to oscillate as PTA device recovery is limited. [15] - **PTA**: The polyester sector rebounded due to capacity adjustment, and PTA was also lifted. Downstream demand has slightly rebounded, but processing margins are low, limiting supply. PTA prices are expected to oscillate narrowly, with the upside restricted by crude oil prices and terminal orders in September. [15] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The restriction on new capacity and excess raw - material capacity has supported ethylene glycol prices. Although port inventory has decreased slightly, factory inventory is still high, and supply is expected to increase slightly. With the recovery of terminal orders in August, ethylene glycol is expected to maintain an oscillation pattern. [16] - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber price rose slightly due to sector resonance. Terminal orders have increased slightly, but inventory accumulation is limited. It is advisable to short on rallies in the medium term. [16] - **Methanol**: The price of methanol in Taicang followed the futures and strengthened, while the basis weakened. Inland demand increased as some methanol plants restarted, but port inventory increased due to imports and plant overhauls. The price is expected to oscillate and rise in the short term and maintain a weak - oscillation pattern in the medium term. [17] - **PP**: The supply pressure of PP has increased as device开工 rates have risen and new capacity is to be put into operation. Although downstream demand has increased slightly, there is no obvious peak - season stocking. With policy support, PP prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the 09 contract and attention should be paid to the 01 contract for peak - season stocking. [17] - **LLDPE**: The supply pressure of LLDPE remains high, and demand has shown a turning point. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, while the 01 contract is supported by policy expectations, and attention should be paid to demand, stocking, and policy implementation. [18] Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The November soybean contract on the CBOT rose slightly. US soybean growers urged the government to reach a trade agreement with China, and the results of the Midwest crop inspection were mixed. [19] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The pressure of full - stockpiling of soybeans and soybean meal in domestic oil mills has been relieved. Canadian rapeseed imports are restricted, but China's purchase of Australian rapeseed has eased the supply risk. The price of soybean and rapeseed meal has risen, and there is still a risk preference for rapeseed meal. [19] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: ICE rapeseed rebounded after two days of decline. The supply of domestic rapeseed oil is expected to shrink as port inventory decreases and imports are low. The cost of soybean oil is expected to be strong, with high short - term inventory pressure but improved supply - demand in the fourth quarter. [20] - **Palm Oil**: The prices of CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, Malaysian palm - oil futures, and international crude oil rose. The export of Malaysian palm oil in August 1 - 20 increased significantly, but the inverted soybean - palm oil price spread may affect future demand. [20] - **Corn**: The national corn price is slightly weak. With the listing of spring corn, sufficient supply, and the potential impact of state - reserve auctions and rice auctions, the corn market remains weak. [20] - **Pigs**: Pig prices may have a seasonal rebound from late August to September, but the amplitude is limited. The cost of secondary fattening has increased due to stricter transportation inspections. The spot price has stabilized, and attention should be paid to the consumption peak during the start of the school term. [21]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The current industry fundamentals have not changed significantly, but there is an increasing expectation for policy stimulus. Future policies are expected to focus on existing building renovations, old community upgrades, complete community construction, and smart city development, rather than large-scale demolitions and constructions. China Jinmao is highlighted as a key company to watch due to its strong shareholder background and increased land acquisition intensity this year. As of the first half of 2025, Jinmao reported a cumulative contracted sales amount of 53.347 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.77%, indicating potential for continued improvement in operational performance [4][5]. Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Industry Fundamentals Tracking - New home transaction area in 30 major cities last week was 1.2667 million square meters, with a cumulative area of 49.2489 million square meters for the year, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.8%. The average transaction area over the past four weeks was 2.1148 million square meters, down 14.7% year-on-year and 5.6% month-on-month. In first-tier cities, the average transaction area was 58080 square meters, down 18.3% year-on-year and 7% month-on-month [5][13]. - The inventory of available residential properties in 14 cities was 79.8571 million square meters, down 9.75% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.64%. The average de-stocking period for these cities is 17.13 months, with first-tier cities at 12.07 months [15][21]. 2. Market Performance Review - Last week, the A-share Shenwan一级房地产行业 index rose by 6.12%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which increased by 0.82%, by 5.3 percentage points. In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Property Services and Management Index fell by 1.04%, while the Hang Seng Composite Index decreased by 1.09% [28][29]. 3. Key Company Performance - Key A-share real estate stocks that saw significant gains last week included Greenland Holdings (+26.83%), Quzhou Development (+23.67%), and Fuxing Shares (+13.89%). In the Hong Kong market, leading real estate stocks included Greentown China Holdings (+21.62%), Shenzhen Holdings (+15.73%), and Agile Group (+12.94%) [32].

Group 1 - Glass futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 1108.00 yuan, with a current price of 1086.00 yuan, reflecting a rise of 2.16% [1] - Short-term outlook suggests that glass prices may maintain a slight upward trend due to improved market sentiment and reduced inventory levels, despite high inventory compared to last year [2] - The production profit for float glass varies, with coal gas production remaining profitable while oil coke and natural gas production face slight losses, which has not led to significant cold repairs in glass factories [2] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment shows a mixed picture, with June CPI rising by 0.1% and PPI declining by 3.6%, indicating ongoing downward pressure on corporate profits [3] - The supply side of the glass industry remains stable with production levels at the bottom, while demand from the real estate sector continues to weaken, impacting overall market dynamics [3] - Short-term trading strategies suggest buying on dips, while long-term strategies recommend selling on highs due to limited rebound potential in the market [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★☆★, with a certain upward trend [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability [1] - Coke: ★☆★, showing a certain upward trend [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Silicon manganese: No rating provided - Silicon iron: ★☆★, showing a certain upward trend [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - In the steel market, low inventory and positive market sentiment may keep the futures prices strong in the short term, while the focus is on terminal demand and relevant policies at home and abroad [2] - Iron ore prices may remain strong in the short term, but there is a risk of increased price fluctuations [3] - Coke and coking coal prices are mainly driven by the trend of thread steel and may have some upward momentum in the short term [4][6] - Silicon manganese and silicon iron prices mainly follow the trend of thread steel and are expected to have some upward space [7][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Thread steel: This week, both apparent demand and output decreased slightly, and inventory continued to decline slowly [2] - Hot-rolled coil: Demand and output declined, and inventory continued to accumulate slightly [2] - Overall: Low inventory and high iron - water production result in little negative feedback pressure on the market. The focus is on the demand - bearing capacity in the off - season [2] Iron Ore - Supply: Global shipments decreased significantly after the end of the quarterly volume rush, while domestic arrivals rebounded, and there is little pressure on port inventory accumulation in the short term [3] - Demand: Apparent demand for steel weakened slightly in the off - season, and there is still some pressure on iron - water production reduction [3] - Macro: High expectations for the upcoming important meeting and reduced external trade uncertainties have boosted market sentiment [3] Coke - Supply: Coking production has declined from the annual high, and overall inventory has continued to decrease [4] - Demand: Purchasing intentions of traders and steel mills have slightly improved [4] - Price: The price is mainly driven by the trend of thread steel and may have some upward momentum in the short term [4] Coking Coal - Supply: The output of coking coal mines has increased slightly, and the closure of the Sino - Mongolian port during the Naadam Festival has improved the transaction of Mongolian coal [6] - Demand: Iron - water production remains high in the off - season, and the procurement is mainly on - demand [6] - Price: The price is mainly driven by the trend of thread steel and may have some upward momentum in the short term [6] Silicon Manganese - Supply: After continuous production cuts, inventory has decreased, but weekly output has begun to increase, and inventory on the balance sheet has started to rise [7] - Price: The price has broken through the 6750 resistance and is expected to have some upward space [7] Silicon Iron - Supply: Supply has continued to decline, and inventory on the balance sheet has decreased, but production - end inventory has started to accumulate [8] - Demand: Overall demand is fair, with stable export demand and increased production of magnesium [8] - Price: The price is mainly driven by the trend of thread steel, and the expectation of electricity price adjustment has enhanced the upward momentum [8]