Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the given content. Group 2: Core Views of the Reports Polyolefins - Recently, due to more unplanned PP maintenance, the supply recovery pace has slowed; PE maintenance has gradually peaked, and there is an expectation of increased supply. Demand has improved, downstream开工率 has risen, and both inventories are decreasing. The cost side provides strong support, and the weighted profits of PP and PE have narrowed again. In the short - term, driven by macro warming, stronger costs, and expected production cuts due to sanctions, PP and PE have rebounded from low levels. The 01 contract still has inventory pressure, while the 05 contract will have less new production in the future, and long - term low - buying opportunities can be considered [2]. Pure Benzene - Recently, with the restart of some pure benzene plants and the expected new production capacity, domestic supply remains abundant. Most downstream products of pure benzene are in loss, and some secondary downstream products have high inventories. There are more shutdowns and planned maintenance of styrene plants, so demand support is limited. The inventory in East China ports has increased slightly, and the supply pressure has risen. The overall supply - demand outlook is still loose, and price drivers are limited. In the short - term, BZ2603 itself has weak drivers and fluctuates with oil prices and styrene [3]. Styrene - Under the dual pressure of inventory and industry profits, there are more shutdowns and maintenance of styrene plants. Although two new plants have been put into operation, the overall supply pressure still exists. Demand support is limited due to economic conditions and high finished - product inventories. The supply - demand pattern remains weak, and the rebound of styrene is expected to face pressure. EB12 price rebounds should be treated as short - selling opportunities [3]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: Recently, due to unplanned maintenance or load reduction of some PX plants, supply has shrunk compared to expectations. Demand has increased with a new PTA plant's planned operation and improved terminal orders. In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand situation has improved. However, due to the overall weak expectations of oil prices and PX supply - demand, the rebound space is limited. Short - term long positions should be closed at high levels, and short - selling opportunities can be considered when Brent oil exceeds $65 per barrel [4]. - **PTA**: With the recovery of some PTA plant loads and the upcoming operation of new plants, the spot basis is generally weak. But due to improved terminal orders, downstream polyester sales have increased, and the basis has been repaired. In the short - term, the price has been boosted by stronger oil prices and improved PX supply - demand expectations, but the rebound space is limited. TA short - term long positions should be closed when chasing high, and short - selling opportunities can be considered. TA1 - 5 can be treated as a rolling reverse spread [4]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: Recently, due to maintenance of some plants and port closures, the inventory is expected to decrease slightly next week. Cost - side oil and coal prices are strong, driving MEG to rebound. However, the long - term supply structure is weak, and there is high inventory accumulation in November - December, so the upside pressure is large. Out - of - the - money call options can be sold at high levels, and EG1 - 5 can be reversed at high levels [4]. - **Short - fiber**: The weekly supply - demand is stable. Supply remains high, and demand has improved with the decrease in temperature, but the ability of downstream to chase prices is weak, and processing fees have been compressed. The improvement in demand and the strength of the cost side are not sustainable, so the rebound space is limited, but the price support is strong due to low inventory. Unilateral operations are the same as PTA, and the processing fee on the disk is expected to fluctuate between 800 - 1100, and should be shorted when it is above 1000 [4]. - **Bottle - chip**: There is no news of further production cuts in October. In the traditional off - season of demand in the fourth quarter, demand support is insufficient, and it is likely to enter a seasonal inventory - building period. PR fluctuates with the cost side. In the short - term, the processing fee will decline, but attention should be paid to the change of plant load and new production capacity. Unilateral operations are the same as PTA, and the main - contract processing fee on the disk is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [4]. Methanol - This week, the port methanol market is under significant pressure due to high inventory and weak demand. The willingness to hold inventory has weakened, and both price and basis have declined. The decline in the inland market is even deeper. Overseas, many plants have shut down. On the demand side, many MTO plants have reduced their loads due to profit reasons, and more maintenance is expected. The current market is trading on the "weak reality vs. strong expectation" logic, with the core contradiction being the game between high port inventory and potential supply reduction. Although the start - up rate of traditional downstream has increased slightly, the MTO load has decreased significantly, and demand support is insufficient. In the short - term, prices may continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the port de - stocking rhythm and the implementation of overseas gas restrictions [5]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is at a high level, the price of downstream alumina continues to decline, and industry profits are shrinking with increasing losses. So, the demand - side support for caustic soda is weak in the short - term, and the market price lacks support. In the medium - term, as the demand purchase cycle approaches, downstream has restocking needs, and the price is expected to have some support. From the production schedule, there will be more alumina production in the first quarter of next year, so there may be concentrated restocking in the fourth quarter, and the spot liquidity may tighten. In the non - aluminum aspect, after the National Day, there may be purchasing intentions due to low prices as the non - aluminum inventory has decreased. Attention should be paid to non - aluminum restocking. It is recommended to close the previous short positions and track the downstream restocking rhythm [7]. - **PVC**: Last week, the PVC disk stopped falling and stabilized, showing a volatile trend. This week, the supply load is low due to many maintenance plants, but it is expected to increase next week. Domestic downstream start - up rates remain low, and orders are limited, with downstream mainly purchasing on a just - in - time basis. The cost of raw materials (calcium carbide) has been rising, but the space is limited, and the ethylene price may decline next week. The cost side provides bottom support. In the future, the logic of a weak peak season is expected to continue, and the disk will still face pressure, but the absolute price is already low, and short - term trading strategies can be considered [7]. Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Polyolefins - **Price Changes**: L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 prices have declined. The spreads of L2509 - 2601 and PP2509 - 2601 have increased. Some spot prices have changed slightly, and the basis of North China LL and East China pp has increased [2]. - **Inventory and Start - up Rates**: PE and PP inventories have decreased. The PE plant start - up rate has decreased slightly, while the downstream weighted start - up rate has increased. The PP plant start - up rate has decreased, the powder start - up rate has increased, and the downstream weighted start - up rate has also increased [2]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Price Changes**: The prices of some upstream products such as Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and CFR Japan naphtha have changed. The prices of pure benzene and styrene and their related spreads have also changed. The import profits of pure benzene and styrene have changed [3]. - **Inventory and Start - up Rates**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports have increased. The start - up rates of some plants in the pure benzene and styrene industrial chain have changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [3]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price Changes**: The prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and CFR Japan naphtha have changed. The prices of downstream polyester products and their cash flows, as well as PX, PTA, and MEG - related prices and spreads have all changed [4]. - **Inventory and Start - up Rates**: MEG port inventory has increased, and the arrival expectation has decreased. The start - up rates of various plants in the polyester industrial chain have changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [4]. Methanol - **Price Changes**: The prices of MA2601, MA2605, and spot methanol in different regions have changed. The spreads and basis have also changed [5]. - **Inventory and Start - up Rates**: Methanol inventories (enterprise, port, and social) have increased. The start - up rates of upstream and downstream methanol plants have changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [5]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price Changes**: The prices of caustic soda and PVC in different forms and regions have changed. The overseas quotes and export profits of caustic soda and PVC have also changed [7]. - **Inventory and Start - up Rates**: The start - up rates of the caustic soda and PVC industries have changed. The inventories of caustic soda and PVC (factory and social) have decreased slightly [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Polyolefins - The supply of PE is increasing steadily, with significant profit improvement, continuous increase in the operating rate, and limited planned maintenance. Overseas inventory clearance at the end of the year also brings impacts, highlighting long - term supply pressure. PP's valuation has been significantly repaired due to the sharp decline in propane and crude oil. Although there are more recent overhauls in PP, the new device commissioning pressure in October is large, and the demand side lacks bright performance. The supply - demand structure of polyolefins is loose, and the upside space of the 01 contract is limited. Overall, the macro - environment is pessimistic, and the prices of PP and PE face pressure [2]. Methanol - At the port, due to sanctions, some warehouses do not accept sanctioned vessels, increasing the willingness to hold spot goods. Coupled with supply - side disturbances, the port basis has strengthened significantly. Overseas production has declined, and some devices have stopped. In late October, attention should be paid to the expected supply reduction caused by overseas gas restrictions. Inland supply has a certain bottom - support for prices due to a relatively healthy inventory structure. The demand side is weak. Overall, the price may continue to fluctuate under the supply - demand game, and attention should be paid to the port de - stocking rhythm and the implementation effect of overseas gas - restriction expectations [4]. Benzene - Styrene - For pure benzene, although there are device overhauls, there are also new production capacity commissioning expectations, and the domestic supply is expected to remain at a relatively high level. The downstream demand support is limited, and the inventory in East China ports may continue to decline. The price drive is weak in October. For styrene, under the double pressure of inventory and industry profit, some devices are under overhaul, but new devices are about to be commissioned, and the overall supply will remain high. The demand side support is also limited, and the price drive is weak. In the short - term, the price is still under pressure [6]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, the supply has shrunk compared to expectations due to unexpected overhauls or load reductions of some devices, while the demand has increased. However, overall, the supply - demand is still weak, and the price is in a weak oscillation. For PTA, the spot basis continues to weaken, but the downward space is limited. The absolute price is also in a weak oscillation. For short - fiber, the price is supported in the short - term, but the cost - side support is weak. For bottle - chips, it is likely to enter a seasonal inventory accumulation period, and it follows the cost - side fluctuations. For ethylene glycol, the domestic supply is abundant, and it is expected to accumulate inventory in October, with the upper price limit under pressure [7]. PVC and Caustic Soda - For caustic soda, the demand support from the aluminum industry is weak in the short - term, but there may be long - term demand support. The supply is increasing in the short - term, and the price is weak. For PVC, the supply - demand pressure is large, the fundamental contradiction is difficult to resolve, and the price is weak. The cost - side provides bottom support, and short - term short positions can stop profit [8]. Summary by Catalogs Polyolefins Price and Spread - L2601 closed at 6883 yuan/ton on October 21, up 4 yuan or 0.06% from the previous day. PP2601 closed at 6283 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan or 0.27%. The price difference between L2509 - 2601 decreased by 5.48%, and that of PP2509 - 2601 decreased by 24.71% [2]. Inventory - PE enterprise inventory increased by 27.67% to 48.9 (unit unclear), and social inventory decreased by 0.04% to 54.5. PP enterprise inventory increased by 30.96% to 68.1 (unit unclear), and trader inventory increased by 39.48% to 26.1 [2]. Operating Rate - The PE device operating rate decreased by 2.61% to 81.8%, and the downstream weighted operating rate increased by 1.26% to 44.9%. The PP device operating rate increased by 0.6% to 78.2%, the powder operating rate increased by 5.4% to 39.3%, and the downstream weighted operating rate increased by 0.2% to 51.9 [2]. Methanol Price and Spread - MA2601 closed at 2268 yuan/ton on October 21, up 2 yuan or 0.09%. The basis of Taicang decreased by 50.00% to - 33 [4]. Inventory - Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 6.33% to 36.09%, and port inventory decreased by 3.36% to 149.1 million tons [4]. Operating Rate - The domestic upstream operating rate decreased by 1.86% to 76.55%, and the overseas upstream operating rate increased by 2.28% to 73.7%. The downstream MTO device operating rate remained unchanged at 86.28% [4]. Benzene - Styrene Upstream Price and Spread - Brent crude oil (December) was at $61.32/barrel on October 21, up $0.31 or 0.5%. The price of pure benzene (Sinopec East China listed price) decreased by 3.5% to 5450 yuan/ton [6]. Styrene - Related Price and Spread - Styrene East China spot price was 6440 yuan/ton on October 21, up 70 yuan or 1.1%. The EB11 - EB12 spread increased by 81.9% [6]. Inventory - Pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports increased by 10.0% to 0.90 million tons, and styrene inventory increased by 3.1% to 20.25 million tons [6]. Operating Rate - The Asian pure benzene operating rate decreased by 1.1% to 79.2%, and the domestic pure benzene operating rate decreased by 4.8% to 75.5% [6]. Polyester Industry Chain Upstream Price - Brent crude oil (December) was at $61.32/barrel on October 21, up $0.31 or 0.5%. CFR Japan naphtha was at $540/ton, up $3 or 0.6% [7]. PX - Related Price and Spread - CFR China PX was at $784/ton on October 21, up $1 or 0.1%. The PX - naphtha spread was $244/ton, down $2 or 0.8% [7]. PTA - Related Price and Spread - PTA East China spot price was 4320 yuan/ton on October 21, up 5 yuan or 0.1%. The PTA spot processing fee was 122 yuan/ton, up 1.8% [7]. MEG - MEG East China spot price was 4075 yuan/ton on October 21, down 25 yuan or 0.6%. MEG port inventory increased by 7.0% to 57.9 million tons [7]. Operating Rate - The Asian PX operating rate decreased by 2.4% to 78.0%, and the PTA operating rate decreased by 4.3% to 74.4% [7]. PVC and Caustic Soda Price and Spread - Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda converted to 100% price remained unchanged at 2560.0 yuan/ton. V2509 was at 5125.0 yuan/ton on October 21, down 10 yuan or 0.2% [8]. Overseas Quotation and Export Profit - The FOB East China port price of caustic soda was $380/ton on October 16, down $20 or - 5.0%. The export profit of PVC decreased by 81.5% to 19.0 yuan/ton [8]. Operating Rate - The caustic soda industry operating rate decreased by 3.9% to 85.5%, and the PVC total operating rate decreased by 7.0% to 75.1% [8]. Inventory - Liquid caustic soda inventory in East China factories decreased by 1.1% to 19.5, and PVC total social inventory decreased by 0.1% to 55.6 [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views Polyolefin Industry - The current core contradiction in the polyolefin market is not prominent. In the PE market, the current maintenance remains high, and the short - term supply pressure is relatively limited. In the PP market, propane is strong, PDH losses intensify, and short - term unplanned maintenance increases. However, after the new device is put into production in early September, the pressure in East China increases, driving the basis to weaken rapidly, and market transactions are dull [23]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - The supply of pure benzene in September is expected to be more relaxed than expected due to the maintenance of a reforming device in East China, and the weakening demand support will limit the price drive. For styrene, the overall start - up of downstream 3S has rebounded this week, and the port inventory has fallen from a high level. There is an expectation of improvement in supply and demand in the future, but the rebound space is limited due to high port inventory [26]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - The caustic soda market has stabilized slightly in the past two days, and the supply is expected to decline next week. The demand is expected to weaken in the future, but the inventory pressure of caustic soda enterprises is not large, and the spot price may remain firm in the short term. The PVC market has stopped falling and stabilized recently, but the overall pattern of oversupply is difficult to reverse, and there is no obvious sign of improvement in demand [30]. Polyester Industry - PX supply is gradually increasing to a relatively high level, and the supply - demand expectation in September is relatively loose, but the medium - term supply - demand is still expected to be tight. PTA supply - demand is expected to be tight in September, but the basis and processing fees have limited repair drivers. Ethylene glycol supply is strong in the short term and weak in the long term. Short - fiber supply - demand is still weak in the short term. Bottle - chip supply - demand may be balanced in September, and inventory may increase slightly [33]. Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices fell due to concerns about supply surplus overwhelming the premium brought by geopolitical risks. In the short term, oil prices are likely to run weakly, and it is recommended to take a short - side approach [38]. Urea Industry - The urea futures price is running weakly due to the dual pressure of increased supply and weak demand. The domestic urea daily output has rebounded, while agricultural demand is in the off - season, and industrial demand is limited [42]. Methanol Industry - The methanol supply is expected to increase in September as domestic maintenance devices return and foreign start - up reaches a seasonal high. The demand from traditional downstream industries remains weak, and the port inventory has increased significantly, with weak basis performance and prominent pressure [44]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Price Change**: From September 10th to 11th, the closing prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 all decreased, with decreases of 0.24%, 0.43%, 0.13%, and 0.71% respectively. The spreads of L2509 - 2601 and PP2509 - 2601 increased by 28.00% and 42.55% respectively [23]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: PE and PP inventories showed different trends last week, with PE de - stocking and PP stocking. The current maintenance of PE remains high, and short - term supply pressure is limited. For PP, propane is strong, PDH losses intensify, and short - term unplanned maintenance increases, but new devices will increase pressure after being put into production in September [23]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Price Change**: From September 10th to 11th, the prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, CFR China pure benzene, and styrene in East China all changed to varying degrees. For example, the price of Brent crude oil (November) decreased by 1.7%, and the price of styrene in East China increased by 0.3% [26]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports decreased by 3.4%, and the inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased by 10.2%. The supply of pure benzene in September is expected to decrease, and the demand support is weakening. For styrene, there is an expectation of improvement in supply and demand in the future [26]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Price Change**: From September 10th to 11th, the price of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda converted to 100% remained unchanged, the price of East China calcium carbide - based PVC increased by 0.2%, and the price of East China ethylene - based PVC remained unchanged [31]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: The inventory of liquid caustic soda in East China factories decreased by 7.8%, and the total social inventory of PVC increased by 2.1%. The supply of caustic soda is expected to decline next week, and the demand for PVC remains weak [31]. Polyester Industry - **Price Change**: From September 10th to 11th, the prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and various polyester products changed. For example, the price of POY150/48 increased by 0.5%, and the price of FDY150/96 decreased by 0.5% [34]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: The supply of PX is gradually increasing, and the supply - demand in September is expected to be relatively loose. The supply - demand of PTA in September is expected to be tight, but the basis and processing fees have limited repair drivers. Ethylene glycol is expected to be in a short - term supply - demand balance but may face oversupply in the fourth quarter [34]. Crude Oil Industry - **Price Change**: On September 12th compared with September 11th, the prices of Brent, WTI, and various refined oil products decreased. For example, the price of Brent decreased by 1.66%, and the price of NYM RBOB decreased by 0.51% [38]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply of crude oil is expected to be in a record - high surplus next year, and the increase in Saudi Arabia's export quota to China confirms the supply pressure. The increase in the number of initial jobless claims in the United States has raised concerns about economic and demand slowdown [38]. Urea Industry - **Price Change**: From September 10th to 11th, the closing price of the methanol main contract decreased by 0.83%, and the prices of various urea futures contracts and spreads also changed [42]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: The domestic urea daily output has rebounded to 18.44 tons, and the start - up rate has increased month - on - month. Agricultural demand is in the off - season, and industrial rigid - demand procurement is limited. Although export containerization provides some support, the decline in Indian consumption weakens the positive effect [42]. Methanol Industry - **Price Change**: From September 10th to 11th, the closing prices of MA2601 and MA2509 decreased by 0.83% and 2.30% respectively, and the MA91 spread decreased by 22.54% [44]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: The methanol enterprise inventory increased by 0.43%, and the port inventory increased by 8.59%. The domestic maintenance devices are expected to return in early September, and the foreign start - up has reached a seasonal high, while the traditional downstream demand remains weak [44].

需求淡季，表现低迷 能源化工-PX&PTA 宏源期货研究所 王江楠 010-82295006 从业资格证号：F03108382 投资咨询证号：Z0021543 1 一、主要观点 二、价格情况 三、装置运行情况 四、基本面分析 一、主要观点 周内总结 后市预测 1.周内总结 4 本周PX弱势整理。在消化突发事件的冲击后，油价回吐 溢价，成本端对聚酯商品的支撑也逐级减弱。PX本月仍 有部分检修计划，同时社会库存处于历史低位，在产业 链仍处于优势低位。在PX供应端利多不足，下游需求预 期走弱的背景下，即使原料端走势偏强，PX市场整体情 绪仍偏空。 本周PTA弱势整理。周内供应端虽有装置的计划外变动， 但难以给价格带来有效提振。聚酯减产已反映到开工数 据下滑，PTA供需格局环比转弱。周内7-9月差迅速收窄， PTA现货基差快速回落。当前基本面没有明确指引，价 格依旧跟随成本震荡。 2.后市预测 5 • 原油方面：中东地缘风险或再度出现，沙特增产限制上 涨幅度，油价维持区间波动为主。PX方面：中国PX供应 量相对稳定，天津28万吨PX装置检修推迟至7月21日进行， 浙石化200万吨PX装置月内存在停车安排；亚洲其他地区 ...