重要的消息有哪些 1．国务院新闻办公室将于2026年3月5日（星期四）上午11时30分举行吹风会，请《政府工作报告》起草组负责人、国务院研究室主任沈丹阳，《政府工 作报告》起草组成员、国务院研究室副主任陈昌盛解读《政府工作报告》，并答记者问。 2．外交部发言人毛宁3月4日表示，霍尔木兹海峡及其附近水域是重要的国际货物和能源贸易通道，维护这一地区的安全稳定符合国际社会的共同利益。 中方敦促各方立即停止军事行动，避免紧张事态进一步升级，防止局势动荡对全球经济造成更大影响。 3．富时罗素3月4日宣布对富时中国指数系列进行修订调整，调整将于2026年3月20日（星期五）收盘后生效。其中富时中国A50指数纳入中国船舶、天孚 通信、万华化学，剔除光大银行、中国中车、山西汾酒。 4．3月4日，国家统计局服务业调查中心、中国物流与采购联合会联合发布2月份中国采购经理指数。受春节假期等季节性因素影响，当月制造业PMI回落 至49.0%，非制造业商务活动指数微升至49.5%。 5．上期所发布通知，经研究决定，自2026年3月4日（星期三）收盘结算时起，涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例调整如下：燃料油期货fu2605、fu2606、 ...

2026.03. 04 作者 | 第一财经 高雅 随着中东局势持续紧张，全球能源供应链的"咽喉"霍尔木兹海峡运输受阻，并引发能源产品的价 格"狂飙"，较冲突发生前，3月4日的纽约原油（WTI）价格达76美元，上涨超过13%，欧洲天然气 期货价格也暴增40%以上。 由于石油和天然气高度依赖进口，欧洲开始担心这场地缘风险溢价是否会触发能源冲击的"第二轮效 应"，进而扭转欧洲央行（ECB）全年的降息路径。 意大利经济与财政部前首席经济学家、伦敦政治经济学院欧洲研究所实践访问教授科多尼奥 （Lorenzo Codogno）接受第一财经记者采访时表示，欧洲央行目前确实处于观望状态。"若能源 价格（不仅是石油，还包括天然气）飙升仅持续数周，可能无须调整货币政策。但如果冲突持续导致 价格长期高企，则二轮效应风险将触发利率调整。"他表示。 能源冲击有多大 瑞士百达财富管理发给第一财经记者的研究显示，尽管霍尔木兹海峡并未被实际封锁，但在保险公司 宣布提高保费并撤销对途经该区域船舶的承保后，该海峡的航运实际上已陷入停滞。这意味着当前的 主要障碍更多源于心理层面，而非物理阻断，且这种状况预计至少将持续数日。 对于随之而来的能源冲击 ...

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices experienced a significant drop, with various factors contributing to the volatility in the market, including geopolitical tensions and supply-demand dynamics [4][5][20]. Market Dynamics - On Monday, oil prices fell sharply, with WTI crude oil futures closing at $62.14 per barrel, down $3.07 or 4.71%, and Brent crude oil futures at $66.30, down $3.02 or 4.36% [6][22]. - The decline in oil prices was attributed to a combination of easing geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, and a rise in global oil inventories as supply concerns diminished [5][21]. Supply and Demand Factors - Recent data indicated a rebound in global oil inventories, with the impact of North American cold weather subsiding and production at Kazakhstan's Tengiz oil field resuming [5][21]. - The market is expected to remain in a cautious wait-and-see mode as investors anticipate the outcomes of U.S.-Iran negotiations, which could further influence oil prices [21]. Recent Developments - OPEC+ has been monitoring compliance with production quotas, with November's production reported at 37.625 million barrels per day, which is 505,000 barrels below target levels [23]. - The European natural gas futures market saw a significant drop of over 12%, attributed to warmer weather forecasts and improved LNG supply, alleviating short-term supply concerns [24][26]. Price Trends - The European natural gas price fell to approximately €34.3 per megawatt-hour, down from a seven-month high of €40 per megawatt-hour [25][29]. - Despite the recent price drops, European gas storage levels remain low at around 41.1%, indicating ongoing supply vulnerabilities [29].

Market Overview - The market experienced a high opening but quickly fell, with the China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasizing the need for stable and regulated market development, particularly targeting excessive speculation and market manipulation [1] - The Canada-China meeting resulted in significant trade agreements, including the reduction of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles entering Canada from 100% to 6.1%, marking a notable shift in trade relations [1] Semiconductor Industry - The U.S. and Taiwan reached a trade agreement to reduce tariffs on semiconductor exports, with TSMC planning to expand its manufacturing capabilities in the U.S. This includes accelerating the timeline for its second factory in Arizona to late 2027 and applying for permits for a fourth factory [3] - TrendForce reported that DRAM contract prices are expected to increase by 55%-60% in Q1 2026 due to supply constraints driven by AI server demand, making the semiconductor supply chain a target for capital investment [3] - Companies like Zhaoyi Innovation and Cambridge Technology saw significant stock price increases, benefiting from the semiconductor industry's growth [3][4] Emerging Technologies - The application of silicon carbide in emerging fields such as AR glasses and advanced packaging is expanding, leading to long-term growth opportunities for companies like Tianyue Advanced [4] - The CES 2026 showcased a strong presence of Chinese brands in smart glasses, with several companies launching innovative products, indicating a growing market for AR technology [4] Energy Sector - The State Grid of China announced a fixed asset investment of 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan, a 40% increase from the previous plan, aimed at meeting the electricity demand of data centers [5] - Companies like Weisheng Holdings are experiencing rapid growth in their data center business, supported by strategic partnerships and expected revenue increases [5] Consumer Goods - Li Ning is expected to benefit from increased brand exposure during the Milan Winter Olympics and strong growth in running and badminton categories, with stock prices rising significantly [6] - The price of rare earth minerals is anticipated to increase due to supply constraints and export controls, positively impacting companies like Jinchuan Group [6] Natural Gas Market - European natural gas prices are set to experience their largest weekly increase in over two years, driven by cold weather and geopolitical risks, with prices rising over 20% [7] - Companies involved in the energy sector, such as Kunlun Energy and New Hope Energy, are likely to benefit from this price surge [8] Robotics and AI - Sanhua Intelligent Controls is preparing for mass production of humanoid robots, with significant demand for liquid cooling systems driven by AI and data centers [9] - The company is expected to see substantial revenue growth, with a projected net profit increase of 25%-50% for the upcoming fiscal year [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - European natural gas futures prices have stabilized around €28 per megawatt-hour since the beginning of the month, with expectations of a 40% decline by year-end, marking the largest annual drop since 2023 [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Natural gas prices are currently hovering around €27.84 per megawatt-hour, with a recent increase of 1.1% [1] - The market has shifted from initial concerns about low fuel inventories to a more stable outlook due to strong supply and mild weather [1] - Norway's stable gas supply and increased liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports have alleviated market pressures, indicating significant progress since the energy crisis four years ago [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The International Energy Agency predicts that Europe’s LNG imports are set to reach a record high this year [1] - Despite a mild start to the heating season, forecasts indicate a drop in temperatures in parts of Europe by mid-January, with models showing continued below-normal temperatures in Northwestern Europe [1] - Current natural gas inventory levels have decreased to 63%, compared to a five-year average seasonal inventory level of 74% [1] Group 3: Trading Activity - Trading volume was relatively low ahead of the New Year holiday, reflecting cautious market sentiment [1] - Ongoing electricity issues continue to impact natural gas delivery, adding another layer of complexity to the market [1]

Core Viewpoint - European natural gas futures prices have started to rebound after hitting a 20-month low, as traders assess the impact of slowing liquefied natural gas (LNG) flows on supply balance in the region [1] Group 1: LNG Supply and Demand - LNG imports in Northwest Europe and major ports in Italy have seen a slight decline since December compared to the previous month [1] - Mild weather has suppressed heating demand, yet Europe still needs to attract stable fuel inflows, keeping natural gas prices fluctuating within a relatively narrow range this week [1] - Analysts from Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) indicate that due to low inventory levels, Europe will need to continue purchasing LNG this winter, leaving room for slight price increases in the first quarter [1] Group 2: Weather and Inventory Conditions - Weather forecasts predict temperatures will be above seasonal averages for the remainder of the month, although there is a possibility of colder temperatures in January [1] - Current natural gas storage filling rates are below 72%, compared to a five-year average of 81%, although the extraction rate of natural gas has recently slowed [1] Group 3: Market Pricing - As of the latest update, the January 2026 contract price for Dutch TTF natural gas futures rose by 1.3% to €26.96 per megawatt-hour, after previously hitting the lowest point since April 2024 [2]

Core Viewpoint - European natural gas prices continue to decline due to above-average temperatures and weak demand from Asia, which has bolstered market confidence in fuel supply [1][2] Group 1: Weather Impact - Weather forecasts indicate milder and windier conditions next week, which will reduce the demand for natural gas for electricity and heating [1] - Warm weather across the European continent is expected to persist until mid-December [1] Group 2: Supply Factors - Norwegian exports remain relatively stable, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply is abundant and expected to exceed last year's levels [1] - Global competition remains moderate, allowing more shipments to reach Europe [1] Group 3: Price Movement - As of 2 PM Amsterdam time (9 PM Beijing time), the European natural gas benchmark Dutch front-month futures fell by 3.2%, trading at €27.31 per megawatt-hour [1] - This week's prices have dropped to the lowest level since April 2024, entering an oversold territory [2]

Core Insights - European natural gas futures prices have dropped to the lowest level since May 2024, following Ukrainian President Zelensky's agreement to develop a peace plan [1] - Warmer weather forecasts are putting pressure on heating demand, with predictions indicating that temperatures in Northwest Europe will return to or exceed seasonal norms from late November to early December [1] - Despite recent fluctuations in short-term weather forecasts keeping traders cautious, the overall trend is shifting towards warmer conditions [1] - Current cold waves have accelerated the extraction of natural gas, leading to a continuous decline in inventory levels, with European gas storage facilities currently filled to less than 81% [1]

Group 1 - European natural gas futures recorded an 8% increase this week after reversing from a one-year low [1]

Market Overview - The market is facing two major uncertainties: potential U.S. intervention in the Middle East conflict and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision [1] - U.S. stock futures have rebounded slightly, with the S&P 500 futures up approximately 0.2% [1][10] - European stocks have also seen a slight increase, with German and French stocks rising about 0.3% [2] - The MSCI Asia-Pacific index remained flat, indicating minimal changes in the Asia-Pacific region [3] Currency and Commodity Movements - The U.S. dollar index has decreased by about 0.1%, while the euro and yen have increased by approximately 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively [4] - U.S. Treasury yields have risen slightly, with the 10-year Treasury yield increasing by over 1 basis point [5] - Spot gold prices remained stable, while silver rose by about 0.3% [6] - Both WTI and Brent crude oil prices have continued to decline, with daily losses expanding to 1% [7][13] - European natural gas futures have surged over 1.4%, reaching above €40 per megawatt-hour, the highest since early April [8] Geopolitical and Economic Context - The ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel has raised concerns about U.S. military involvement, with speculation about a potential attack discussed in a recent National Security Council meeting [9] - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce its interest rate decision, with the market anticipating no changes in June and July, but betting on nearly two rate cuts later this year [9] - The CEO of EFG Asset Management highlighted the uncertainty faced by the Federal Reserve due to various intertwined factors, including tariffs, energy price fluctuations, geopolitical risks, and the growing U.S. fiscal deficit [9] Investor Sentiment - The VIX index, which measures market volatility, has surpassed the critical level of 20, indicating increased investor anxiety amid the Middle East tensions [11] - Despite the geopolitical situation, the market is already facing numerous risks, including high stock valuations and unaccounted uncertainties such as tariff policies and fiscal uncertainties [11]