Core Viewpoint - European natural gas futures prices have started to rebound after hitting a 20-month low, as traders assess the impact of slowing liquefied natural gas (LNG) flows on supply balance in the region [1] Group 1: LNG Supply and Demand - LNG imports in Northwest Europe and major ports in Italy have seen a slight decline since December compared to the previous month [1] - Mild weather has suppressed heating demand, yet Europe still needs to attract stable fuel inflows, keeping natural gas prices fluctuating within a relatively narrow range this week [1] - Analysts from Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) indicate that due to low inventory levels, Europe will need to continue purchasing LNG this winter, leaving room for slight price increases in the first quarter [1] Group 2: Weather and Inventory Conditions - Weather forecasts predict temperatures will be above seasonal averages for the remainder of the month, although there is a possibility of colder temperatures in January [1] - Current natural gas storage filling rates are below 72%, compared to a five-year average of 81%, although the extraction rate of natural gas has recently slowed [1] Group 3: Market Pricing - As of the latest update, the January 2026 contract price for Dutch TTF natural gas futures rose by 1.3% to €26.96 per megawatt-hour, after previously hitting the lowest point since April 2024 [2]

Core Viewpoint - European natural gas prices continue to decline due to above-average temperatures and weak demand from Asia, which has bolstered market confidence in fuel supply [1][2] Group 1: Weather Impact - Weather forecasts indicate milder and windier conditions next week, which will reduce the demand for natural gas for electricity and heating [1] - Warm weather across the European continent is expected to persist until mid-December [1] Group 2: Supply Factors - Norwegian exports remain relatively stable, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply is abundant and expected to exceed last year's levels [1] - Global competition remains moderate, allowing more shipments to reach Europe [1] Group 3: Price Movement - As of 2 PM Amsterdam time (9 PM Beijing time), the European natural gas benchmark Dutch front-month futures fell by 3.2%, trading at €27.31 per megawatt-hour [1] - This week's prices have dropped to the lowest level since April 2024, entering an oversold territory [2]

Core Insights - European natural gas futures prices have dropped to the lowest level since May 2024, following Ukrainian President Zelensky's agreement to develop a peace plan [1] - Warmer weather forecasts are putting pressure on heating demand, with predictions indicating that temperatures in Northwest Europe will return to or exceed seasonal norms from late November to early December [1] - Despite recent fluctuations in short-term weather forecasts keeping traders cautious, the overall trend is shifting towards warmer conditions [1] - Current cold waves have accelerated the extraction of natural gas, leading to a continuous decline in inventory levels, with European gas storage facilities currently filled to less than 81% [1]

Group 1 - European natural gas futures recorded an 8% increase this week after reversing from a one-year low [1]

Market Overview - The market is facing two major uncertainties: potential U.S. intervention in the Middle East conflict and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision [1] - U.S. stock futures have rebounded slightly, with the S&P 500 futures up approximately 0.2% [1][10] - European stocks have also seen a slight increase, with German and French stocks rising about 0.3% [2] - The MSCI Asia-Pacific index remained flat, indicating minimal changes in the Asia-Pacific region [3] Currency and Commodity Movements - The U.S. dollar index has decreased by about 0.1%, while the euro and yen have increased by approximately 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively [4] - U.S. Treasury yields have risen slightly, with the 10-year Treasury yield increasing by over 1 basis point [5] - Spot gold prices remained stable, while silver rose by about 0.3% [6] - Both WTI and Brent crude oil prices have continued to decline, with daily losses expanding to 1% [7][13] - European natural gas futures have surged over 1.4%, reaching above €40 per megawatt-hour, the highest since early April [8] Geopolitical and Economic Context - The ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel has raised concerns about U.S. military involvement, with speculation about a potential attack discussed in a recent National Security Council meeting [9] - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce its interest rate decision, with the market anticipating no changes in June and July, but betting on nearly two rate cuts later this year [9] - The CEO of EFG Asset Management highlighted the uncertainty faced by the Federal Reserve due to various intertwined factors, including tariffs, energy price fluctuations, geopolitical risks, and the growing U.S. fiscal deficit [9] Investor Sentiment - The VIX index, which measures market volatility, has surpassed the critical level of 20, indicating increased investor anxiety amid the Middle East tensions [11] - Despite the geopolitical situation, the market is already facing numerous risks, including high stock valuations and unaccounted uncertainties such as tariff policies and fiscal uncertainties [11]