Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment outlook for the tire industry, highlighting significant growth potential and opportunities for domestic tire manufacturers to capture market share from foreign brands [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes a substantial replacement opportunity in the tire market, particularly for domestic brands, as they currently hold only 30% market share domestically and 20% internationally. The potential for growth is driven by the increasing demand for cost-effective and high-quality products [3][17]. - The analysis indicates that the tire industry is expected to experience a "Davis double" effect in 2026, where both volume and pricing are anticipated to rise, leading to improved profitability for leading domestic tire manufacturers [3][25]. - The report outlines a multi-faceted approach to market dynamics, focusing on long-term replacement potential, mid-term supply-demand tracking, and short-term monitoring of key variables such as production capacity and cost factors [6][20]. Summary by Sections Research Framework - The long-term perspective indicates a significant replacement space for domestic tire manufacturers, with a focus on supply-demand dynamics and key variables to monitor [6]. 2025 Marginal Changes - The report discusses how changes in trade policies in 2025 will enhance the cost advantages of domestic manufacturers, allowing them to capture more market share from foreign competitors [25]. 2026 Core Changes - It is projected that 2026 will mark a breakthrough year for high-end tire supply, with domestic manufacturers expected to increase their market share in premium segments significantly [25][29]. Stock Recommendations and Focus - The report recommends several domestic tire companies, including Zhongce Rubber, Sailun, and Linglong, while also suggesting to monitor others like Haian Rubber and Triangle for potential investment opportunities [3][29].

Core Insights - The automotive sector is transitioning from a purely domestic demand-driven model to a multifaceted approach that includes overseas expansion, premiumization, and smart technology integration, with a focus on AI as a key growth driver for 2026 [3][10]. Summary by Sections Overall Market Outlook - Domestic demand for passenger vehicles may face pressure, with a projected registration volume of 22.6 million units in 2026, down 3.4% year-on-year. Exports are expected to reach 6.8 million units, up 17.2% year-on-year, while wholesale volume is forecasted at 29.41 million units, a slight increase of 0.7% [6][32]. - Heavy-duty trucks are anticipated to see a domestic retail sales volume of 695,000 units in 2026, down 13.2% year-on-year, with exports of 365,000 units, up 10% [6][40]. - The motorcycle industry is expected to continue its recovery, with total sales projected at 23.44 million units in 2026, reflecting a 7% year-on-year increase [6]. Main Line 1: Overseas Expansion - The overseas market presents significant growth potential, with a focus on electric vehicle (EV) exports. Excluding China, the U.S., and Japan, the potential for EV exports is expected to triple, with a forecast of 3.38 million units exported in 2026 [7]. - Domestic parts manufacturers are leveraging their technological and cost advantages to penetrate global supply chains, particularly benefiting from the growth of the European EV market [7]. - Heavy-duty truck exports are projected to reach 365,000 units in 2026, while bus exports are expected to grow by 15% [7]. Main Line 2: High-End Vehicles and Domestic Substitution - The high-end and luxury passenger vehicle markets are less affected by economic downturns, presenting opportunities for domestic substitution [8]. - The automotive parts sector is expected to benefit from technological advancements, with significant growth anticipated in areas such as magnesium alloys and smart driving components [8]. - The penetration rate of domestic parts in certain categories, such as seats and airbags, is expected to increase from approximately 10% to over 30% [8]. Main Line 3: Embracing AI - The production of humanoid robots is entering a new phase, with significant growth expected in 2026 as Tesla prepares for mass production [9]. - The liquid cooling sector is poised for explosive growth, with strong applicability in both automotive and server cooling systems [9]. - The smart driving market is entering a phase of affordability, with penetration rates expected to accelerate between 10% and 50% [9]. Investment Recommendations - The automotive sector is advised to focus on identifying turning points in domestic demand while leveraging opportunities in overseas markets, high-end vehicle segments, and AI-driven transformations [10].

Group 1 - The U.S. government is considering allowing NVIDIA to sell H200 chips to China, which reflects the global technology competition and presents both challenges and opportunities for domestic GPU companies in China, such as Moore Threads [3] - The recent adjustment in the A-share market, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3900 points, is seen as a buying opportunity rather than a cause for concern, as the underlying fundamentals supporting the market's rise remain unchanged [3] - Analysts suggest focusing on sectors like defensive dividend stocks, technology stocks, innovative pharmaceuticals, military industry, AI computing, storage, and cyclical stocks in basic chemicals and industrial technology for potential investment [3] Group 2 - Advances in solid-state batteries could lead to electric vehicles achieving over 1000 kilometers of range, making related companies in the supply chain worth monitoring [4] - The MSCI China Index has adjusted to include 26 new stocks, which will attract passive fund allocations, signaling potential investment opportunities [4] - The debut of Moore Threads as the first domestic GPU stock presents an opportunity for investors interested in new shares, alongside collaborations in humanoid robotics involving companies like Zhongding and Fourier Intelligence [5] Group 3 - The current market volatility should not deter long-term investors, as companies with genuine technology and growth potential represent good entry points during market adjustments [5] - The focus should remain on long-term trends in technology growth, high-end manufacturing, and renewable energy, as long as the fundamentals are intact [5]

Group 1: Passenger Vehicles - The report anticipates a strong performance in Q3 2025, with a projected wholesale volume of 16.25 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5% and a month-on-month increase of 21% [1] - The sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) are expected to reach 9.3 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 23% and a month-on-month growth of 42% [1] - The market share of domestic brands is projected to increase from 62% in 2024 to 69% in 2025, driven by strong performances from BYD, Geely, and Chery [20][24] Group 2: Motorcycles and Electric Two-Wheelers - The motorcycle industry is focusing on overseas expansion, particularly in Europe, where a high growth period is expected from January to October [2] - The electric two-wheeler market is anticipated to see strong sales growth in Q3, supported by policies and a demand upgrade, with a cumulative replacement volume of 6.5 million units by May 2025 [2][12] - The report highlights that the high-end electric two-wheeler market is becoming increasingly competitive, while the mid-to-low-end market is expected to consolidate, benefiting leading companies like Aima and Yadea [2] Group 3: Auto Parts - The report notes that tariffs are accelerating the globalization of domestic auto parts companies, with a focus on capacity relocation to regions like Mexico and Southeast Asia [3] - The optimization of supplier payment terms to within 60 days is expected to improve the health of the industry chain, particularly benefiting leading auto parts suppliers [3] Group 4: Intelligent Driving and Robotics - The Robo X initiative is gaining momentum, with significant advancements in logistics cost reduction and the commercialization of Robotaxi services [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of technological iterations in the intelligent driving sector, with a notable increase in the penetration rate of high-end driving assistance features in vehicles priced below 200,000 yuan [4][19] - In the robotics sector, the investment paradigm is shifting towards companies that can deliver real orders and have a strong technological and production capacity [5]

Group 1 - The A-share market opened higher with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.04% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 0.33%, driven by sectors such as controllable nuclear fusion, football concepts, and Hainan [1] - Dongwu Securities anticipates June to be a new trading starting point with a focus on the technology sector, which is expected to experience a series of catalytic events, benefiting from a weak dollar environment [1] - Key investment themes and industry trends to watch include AI edge applications (AI smartphones, AI glasses), AI large models, humanoid robots, controllable nuclear fusion, deep-sea technology, and autonomous driving [1] Group 2 - Everbright Securities predicts that the market will maintain a volatile trend in June, leaning towards defensive styles due to internal and external factors, including domestic consumption, domestic substitution, and low fund allocation [2] - The current policy environment is focused on stability, with a lower likelihood of strong economic expectations in the short term, and the market is near early April levels, suggesting limited trading enthusiasm in June [2] - The five-dimensional industry comparison framework indicates that sectors such as coal, public utilities, banking, non-bank financials, construction decoration, and oil and petrochemicals are likely to be of high interest for investors [2] Group 3 - Dongfang Securities notes that recent concerns over tariffs may temporarily suppress market sentiment, but the market is gradually becoming desensitized to these concerns [3] - The recovery in the manufacturing PMI in May indicates resilience in the domestic economic fundamentals, which is expected to provide support for the market [3] - Investment opportunities are anticipated in sectors such as aerospace and military, domestic substitution, and new consumption [3]