Core Insights - The current market has shifted into an era that requires more active exploration of excess returns (α), moving away from the previous low-interest-rate environment where holding assets easily generated coupon income [1] - Asset management institutions are increasingly demanding multi-asset allocation to enhance the stability of investment portfolio returns amid rising global economic uncertainties [1] Group 1: Asset Allocation Strategies - The "fixed income +" strategy still has room for expansion despite narrowing coupon yields in the bond market, with gold prices rising since November 2022 due to central bank allocation behaviors in emerging markets [2] - Gold has risen to become the second-largest reserve asset globally, with a current share of 20% in global official reserves, which amounts to approximately $15 trillion; an increase in gold's share to 23% could lead to significant inflows [2] - The "fixed income + USD" combination has performed well in the past two to three years, benefiting from USD appreciation and changes in the China-US interest rate differential [2] Group 2: Bond Market Insights - China's bond market has considerable development potential, with foreign investors holding only about 3% of the market compared to over 40% in the US [3] - The current yield on China's 10-year government bonds is approximately 1.7%, but for overseas investors, the actual yield can reach 4% or higher due to currency exchange and hedging strategies [3] - Effective use of derivatives is crucial for generating excess returns in a low-interest-rate environment [3] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - The risks associated with the "fixed income + USD" strategy include duration risk, foreign exchange risk, and term risk, with foreign exchange risk being particularly prominent [4] - The current fixed income market exhibits a "bear steepening" characteristic, where short-term bonds show less volatility compared to long-term bonds [4] - The future direction of gold investment is influenced by central bank adjustments in reserve assets, with gold likely to continue appreciating as the US enters a rate-cutting cycle [5] Group 4: Alternative Strategies - Two strategic directions are suggested for current market conditions: global allocation to high-yield bonds in emerging markets and the development of alternative strategies such as asset-backed securities (ABS) and derivatives [5] - The trading volume and open interest in interest rate derivatives, such as China's government bond futures, have increased nearly tenfold over the past five years, indicating rapid growth in this sector [6] - Financial institutions need to focus on precise duration risk management and effective use of interest rate derivatives to achieve differentiated investment risk control [6]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China has released a draft regulation aimed at enhancing the management of interbank market brokerage services, addressing the need for specialized regulatory frameworks in this area [1][2] Group 1: Highlights of the Regulation - The regulation clarifies the types and service scope of brokerage institutions, reinforcing unified supervision to ensure these institutions focus on their core intermediary functions in secondary market liquidity facilitation [1][2] - It strengthens capital adequacy and liquidity requirements for brokerage institutions, mandating the establishment of effective "firewall" systems between brokerage and proprietary trading to enhance risk resilience and market fairness [1][3] - A unified trading process and operational standards are established, along with a regular information disclosure mechanism to improve transaction standardization, effectiveness, and transparency, thereby boosting overall market efficiency and investor trust [1][2] Group 2: Compliance and Operational Requirements - Brokerage institutions are restricted to serving only the interbank secondary market, covering various financial products, and are prohibited from participating in primary bond issuance and over-the-counter bond business [3][4] - Institutions must report to the central bank before entering the market, and non-specialized entities must establish independent departments to strictly separate brokerage activities from proprietary trading [3][4] - Real-time disclosure of optimal buy/sell quotes and transaction information is required, with all communications recorded and retained for at least five years [3][4] Group 3: Compliance Capability Enhancement - Banks must adhere to multiple core compliance requirements, including serving only qualified financial institution investors and signing service agreements to clarify responsibilities and trading terms [4][5] - Discriminatory pricing and misleading pricing practices are prohibited to ensure fair access to market prices for clients [4][5] - Banks are encouraged to deploy AI tools to monitor abnormal trading patterns and shift from reliance on information asymmetry to providing high-value services like liquidity analysis and compliance consulting [4][5][6]

印度央行：政府证券市场、外汇市场和利率衍生品市场的交易时间保持不变。 ...