随着日本央行最新加息举措未能提振汇率，华尔街对日元的看空情绪再度升温，市场正逐渐形成日元将长期疲软的共识。包括摩根大通和BNP Paribas SA在内的主要机构策略师预测，受美日利差高企及负实际利率推动，日元兑美元汇率在2026年底前将跌破160关口，甚至进一步走低。 华尔街对日元前景的悲观预测源于对日本经济基本面的担忧。摩根大通首席日本外汇策略师Junya Tanase持有华尔街最为看空的观点，预测2026 年底日元将跌至164。他指出，日元的基本面相当脆弱，且这一状况在进入明年后不会有太大改变。周期性力量可能转为对日元更为不利，随着市 场定价其他地区更高的利率，日本央行紧缩政策的影响力将受到限制。 BNP Paribas新兴亚洲外汇及利率策略师Parisha Saimbi同样预计日元将在2026年底触及160。她分析称，明年的全球宏观环境对风险情绪相对有 利，这种环境通常利好套利交易策略。鉴于套利需求的韧性、日本央行的谨慎态度以及美联储可能超出预期的鹰派立场，美元兑日元汇率恐将维 持高位。 今年日元兑美元仅录得不足1%的微幅涨幅，结束此前连续四年的下跌走势，但市场原本寄望的日本央行加息与美联储降息组合并 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by the Federal Reserve in managing monetary policy amid persistent inflation and rising debt levels, suggesting a shift towards a "fiscal dominance" scenario that could benefit gold and silver as key investment assets [2][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Challenges - The expectation of returning to a low interest rate environment is unrealistic, as the structural changes in inflation and labor shortages make the 2% inflation target unattainable [2]. - Even if the Federal Reserve initiates rate cuts, the terminal rate is likely to remain above 3%, indicating a need to adapt to a "higher for longer" interest rate environment [2][3]. Group 2: Fiscal Implications - The U.S. faces significant fiscal challenges with a national debt of $38 trillion, projected to reach $41 trillion, leading to exponentially increasing interest payments that could exceed $1 trillion annually [3]. - If interest rates remain above 3.5%, the cost of debt servicing could consume a substantial portion of fiscal revenue, potentially leading to a debt spiral [3]. Group 3: Potential Policy Responses - Historical precedents suggest that the Federal Reserve may prioritize government credit over strict inflation targets, potentially leading to forced rate cuts even if inflation is not fully under control [3]. - This approach could result in "financial repression," where nominal interest rates are kept artificially low, diluting national debt but risking damage to the dollar's credibility and uncontrolled inflation expectations [4]. Group 4: Investment Outlook - Under the described macroeconomic conditions, gold and silver are positioned not just as traditional safe-haven assets but as essential tools against the devaluation of fiat currency, with a potential target price for gold reaching $10,000 [4].