新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 12月18日，在经历了罕见的快速上涨之后，黄金并未出现大幅回调，而是以相对平稳的姿态开启新的周 期。Mhmarkets迈汇认为，这种在高位震荡而非急速回落的表现，反映出市场对黄金价值的重新定位。 对长期配置型资金而言，稳定往往比短期暴涨更具吸引力，也更有利于趋势的延续。 回顾此前走势，黄金在一年内多次刷新历史高点，背后既有全球环境持续不明朗的因素，也离不开央行 和机构投资者的集中配置。Mhmarkets迈汇表示，价格在上涨后逐步企稳，说明市场并未将黄金视为短 线投机品种，而是开始接受其在资产组合中"基础配置"的角色。这种认知变化，使得黄金的上涨逻辑更 加偏向结构性而非情绪驱动。 对于接下来的运行区间，主流机构预计金价将维持在相对宽幅但有支撑的区间内波动，上行节奏可能放 缓，但方向仍偏积极。Mhmarkets迈汇认为，只要价格运行重心保持在此前周期明显抬升后的区间内， 下行风险就相对可控，而时间反而会成为多头的重要朋友。 值得注意的是，投资者对黄金的配置比例正在发生变化。过去较为常见的小比例持仓，正逐步向更高的 战略配置过渡。这一趋势显示，黄金正在从"应急资产"转变为"常 ...

美联储拿到了12月议息会议前的最后一份就业数据。 12月3日，美国薪资处理机构（ADP）发布报告称，美国11月私营企业就业岗位意外减少。当月岗位数 量减少3.2万个，而此前市场预期增加1万个。11月就业数据的下滑，加剧了市场对美国就业前景的担 忧。 由于美国劳工统计局不会再发布因联邦政府停摆而延误的10月就业数据。因此，ADP数据成为美联储12 月议息会议前的重要参考。 美联储多位官员此前曾公开表示，政策制定将重点聚焦劳动力市场状况，随着11月就业岗位低于预期， 12月降息概率进一步增强。芝商所"美联储观察工具"数据显示，市场预计美联储下周将基准利率下调25 个基点的概率已达89%。 此外，美联储新主席的面孔也逐渐清晰。特朗普表示很可能在2026年初公布下任美联储主席提名人选， 以接替将于2026年5月结束任期的现任主席鲍威尔。据最新消息，美国国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈赛特 很可能获得下一任美联储主席的提名，作为特朗普最重要的亲信，哈赛特若担任美联储主席，大概率将 引导更"鸽派"的货币政策，进而动摇美联储独立性。受此影响，市场对未来一年降息的押注进一步提 升。 在美联储降息预期升温的背景下，近期贵金属延续反弹 ...

六大行集体下架5年期大额存单，中小银行策略分化，部分"接棒"营销，部分以特色存款满足需求。 当前，年利率超2%的大额存单极为罕见且抢手，部分银行产品门槛升至千万元级。专家称，不同银行因差异形成不同策略，未来存款利率或长期下行， 投资者应调整策略，构建多元资产组合。 "我们银行还有5年期，请联系我了解详情！"随着六大国有银行集体下架5年期大额存单，部分中小银行客户经理将其视为一个营销窗口，在社交媒体上介 绍起自家长期存款产品。 《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称"每经记者"）注意到，在国有大行引领的5年期大额存单"下架潮"中，中小银行策略出现显著分化，部分选择跟进，部 分"接棒"成为供应主力，部分则以特色存款"迂回"满足客户需求。 据观察，目前年利率超过2%的大额存单已极为罕见且一单难求，少数在售银行普遍设置了更高门槛或面临"秒光"抢购，个别银行的大额存单产品起售门 槛甚至已达千万元级。面对大额存单的额度和利率约束，也有不少银行积极推出利率相近的"特色存款"产品作为"平替"，以较低起存金额吸引更广泛的客 户。 对此，北京财富管理行业协会特约研究员杨海平认为，不同类型银行在市场份额、客户基础、服务网络布局等方面存在差 ...

如何平视固收+相关性 20251203 我们最近发布了一篇关于资产间相关性的报告，旨在探讨 2026 年资产收益率 预期的差异及其对投资组合的影响。我们注意到，尽管市场普遍关注资产收益 率，但资产间相关性这一点往往被忽视。尤其是今年（2025 年）股债之间深 度负相关的格局是否会在明年（2026 年）发生变化，这一点值得关注。 报告 涵盖了六个部分内容。首先，我们定义了资产相关性对组合的贡献，并通过定 量方法进行整理和分析。其次，我们回顾了大类资产之间的相关性，包括股票、 债券、转债、黄金、美债、美股和 REITs 等。在股债这两类资产中，我们进一 步探讨了期限利差和信用利差与股票收益率之间的关系。 我们还发现，通胀水 平对国债相关性的解释力度并不强，而通胀和经济增长波动对股债相关性的解 股债负相关关系自 2018 年以来较为明显，受通胀、流动性和机构行为 等因素驱动，呈现不同周期特征。2020 年以来，股票表现对未来一个 月资产间关联产生单向影响。 高频市场中，股债相关性受宏观政策和投资者结构影响，呈现状态变化。 流动性指标和沃夫指标能有效刻画市场流动性紧张程度及股票波动变化， 从而解释股债间关系。若流动性 ...

Group 1 - The capital market landscape in 2025 is shifting towards diversified asset allocation, moving away from single-asset strategies to include equities, fixed income, and physical assets [1] - Emerging industry leaders and high-rated corporate bonds are becoming mainstream investment options, with a focus on a three-dimensional combination of stocks, bonds, and physical gold [1] - The Hong Kong stock market is showing structural opportunities, with specific stocks in AI healthcare and renewable energy infrastructure benefiting significantly [2] Group 2 - Gold is highlighted as a traditional safe-haven asset, particularly during the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle, showcasing unique allocation value [3] - The combination of physical gold and gold ETFs meets liquidity needs while avoiding trading losses, with gold mining stocks showing a high correlation to gold prices [3] - Risk management strategies are emphasized, including the use of cross-market ETFs to hedge currency risks and volatility index products to manage market risks [5] Group 3 - The rise of smart investment advisory tools is changing allocation methods, allowing for dynamic adjustments based on economic indicators [5] - There is a recommendation to maintain a minimum of 15% gold holdings in portfolios, alongside a focus on consumer recovery stocks and high-yield municipal bonds [5] - The importance of maintaining a balance between algorithmic and actively managed products is noted to enhance portfolio differentiation [5]

Core Insights - The personal pension system in China has been in place for three years, with a significant increase in the number of products available, totaling 1,013 as of April 23, including savings, funds, insurance, and wealth management products [1][3] - Despite the growth in product offerings, banks are lacking in professional investment advisory services, which affects customer engagement and investment decisions [2][4] - There is a notable homogeneity among personal pension products, with limited differentiation in terms of long-term returns and flexibility, which may hinder consumer interest [1][3][5] Product Supply and Demand - The demand for personal pensions is not fully realized, with 68.8% of respondents facing issues such as lack of suitable products and complex purchasing processes [3] - Financial institutions are encouraged to diversify their product offerings to meet varying consumer needs and improve the overall experience of participating in the personal pension system [3][5] Regulatory and Development Initiatives - The Financial Regulatory Authority has issued a plan to enhance the quality of personal pension services, urging banks and insurance companies to develop new and tailored products [4] - There is a call for the establishment of investment advisory teams within financial institutions to provide compliant and effective investment consultation services [4][5] Recommendations for Improvement - Financial institutions should design diverse personal pension products based on different risk preferences and retirement needs, enhancing transparency and stability of returns [5] - Simplifying operational processes and improving service experiences are essential to encourage participation in personal pension schemes [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent shift in asset allocation indicates a transition from an "overweight" position in dollar assets to a more balanced configuration between dollar assets and other currencies, including the euro [1] Group 1: Asset Allocation Changes - The chief economist of the European Central Bank, Lane, noted a reduction in dollar asset allocation in recent portfolio configurations [1] - This change may reflect a move towards a more natural allocation ratio, achieving a balance between dollar and euro assets [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Lane mentioned that since the election of President Trump, the pricing of U.S. assets has already incorporated "perfect expectations" [1] - Recent outflows from U.S. Treasury bonds could be interpreted as a form of reallocation, which may either stabilize or provoke deeper reflections in the market [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite the changes, the weight of dollar assets in most portfolios is expected to remain significantly higher than that of euro assets [1]