◎记者 张欣然 央行下周将开展6000亿元中期借贷便利（MLF）操作，8月MLF净投放将达3000亿元，为连续6个月"加 量续作"。叠加3000亿元买断式逆回购，8月中期流动性净投放总规模已达6000亿元，为今年2月以来的 单月新高。 业内人士表示，此举释放出货币政策操作继续维持宽松、呵护信贷和市场预期的信号。展望后市，年内 降准空间有限，政策重心或转向"落实落细"，在保持流动性充裕的同时，更注重灵活落地与精准传导。 三是央行持续实施中期流动性净投放，也在释放数量型货币政策工具持续加力的政策信号。这意味着， 尽管上半年宏观经济运行稳中偏强，但货币政策仍在延续支持性立场。 多位受访债券投资经理均表示，目前债券市场能够维持相对稳定，主要得益于资金面保持平稳，未面临 明显的赎回压力，央行持续进行流动性调控，也为市场运行提供了重要支撑。 下半年货币政策或更注重灵活落地 展望后市，市场普遍预计央行将继续保持流动性充裕，但政策重点正转向"落实落细"，更关注执行效果 和灵活应对。短期内降准概率不大，四季度或成政策再度加码的关键窗口。 天风证券固定收益首席分析师谭逸鸣表示，近期资金持续宽松主要有两方面原因：一是买断式逆回购操 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) continues to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy in June, providing a suitable liquidity environment to support economic recovery [1] Group 1: Liquidity Tools and Net Injection - In June, the PBOC achieved a net injection of 656 billion yuan through various liquidity tools, with short-term reverse repos contributing 535.9 billion yuan [1] - The MLF (Medium-term Lending Facility) saw a net injection of 118 billion yuan in June, with a total of 2.35 trillion yuan injected in the first half of 2025, all with a one-year term [2] - The PBOC's use of liquidity tools reflects a focus on supporting key sectors such as consumption, manufacturing, foreign trade, private enterprises, and real estate [1] Group 2: MLF and Reverse Repo Operations - The MLF has transitioned from a supplementary liquidity tool to a primary monetary policy tool, with its role evolving over the past decade [2] - The PBOC's short-term reverse repo operations are aimed at maintaining short-end liquidity, with the DR007 rate being a critical indicator of liquidity tightening [3] - The PBOC's buyout reverse repo operations have increased, with a net injection of 200 billion yuan in June, helping to lower funding costs for financial institutions [4] Group 3: Buyout Reverse Repo Implementation - Since the introduction of buyout reverse repos in October 2024, the balance has gradually increased, alleviating pressure on MLF for medium-term liquidity [5] - The regular operation of buyout reverse repos enhances liquidity management and fills the gap between the 7-day reverse repo and the 1-year MLF [5]

Report Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint In the short term, the market may continue to fluctuate as it awaits further confirmation of monetary policy. Subsequently, it is expected to break through the downward space and approach the low point. Although the liquidity in July may remain relatively loose, from the perspective of coordinating fiscal policies and managing market expectations, treasury bond trading may not necessarily occur during this window period. The amplitude and rhythm of the curve opening up space require reasonable assessment [35]. Summary by Directory 1. Stock Market Suppression, Bond Market First Weak then Strong, Curve Slightly Steepened - This week (June 23 - June 27), the cross - quarter and the stock - bond "seesaw" were the main factors influencing the bond market. The stock market's strength in the first half of the week suppressed the bond market, but the central bank's increased liquidity injection and insurance replenishment provided some support. In the second half of the week, the bond market recovered as the stock - bond linkage effect weakened and the stock market declined, along with uncertain industrial enterprise profit data [1][8]. - On a daily basis, the bond market showed different trends each day. By June 27, the yields of 1Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y treasury bonds changed by - 1, + 0.4, + 0.7, and + 1.2 BP respectively compared to June 20, and the curve steepened slightly. Most yields of major - term certificates of deposit (CDs) increased [8]. 2. Cross - quarter Overall Secure, Bank Liability - side Pressure Controllable - This week, the overall funding situation was stable, with increased fluctuations approaching the quarter - end. The 7 - day funding rate rose significantly, and the government bond issuance scale was large in the first half of the week. However, the central bank's intention to support was obvious, with reverse repurchase injections exceeding 2 trillion yuan. CD issuance rates fluctuated slightly, and large - bank lending remained stable around 4 trillion yuan, indicating that cross - quarter funds were generally secure and bank liability - side pressure was relatively controllable [2][13]. - The 7 - day funding rate center increased, and the DR001 still ran below the policy rate. As of June 27, the weekly averages of DR001 and R001 changed by - 0.53 and + 0.58 respectively compared to the previous week, while those of DR007 and R007 changed by + 12.75 and + 24.03 BP respectively. The phenomenon of funding stratification became more prominent, and the funding pressure on non - bank institutions increased during the cross - quarter period [13]. 3. The "Actions" and "Inactions" of Central Bank Monetary Policy - In June, market discussions about whether the central bank would restart treasury bond trading intensified. Since June, large banks' purchases of short - term treasury bonds (especially 1 - 3Y) increased year - on - year and month - on - month, which made the market more likely to associate this with the restart of treasury bond trading operations [19]. - The central bank suspended treasury bond purchases in 2025 mainly due to the improvement of the government bond supply - demand relationship and to avoid creating strong market expectations. After the market adjustment in the first quarter, an expert view in the Financial Times on April 13 suggested that the central bank might buy new treasury bonds in the secondary market if the interest - rate increase pressure from expansionary fiscal policies weakened policy effectiveness [3][25]. - In the first half of 2025, the bond market's funding situation was volatile. Monetary policy showed more characteristics of dynamic equilibrium and contingency decision - making among multiple goals. The central bank's shift from "restraint" to "support" in liquidity injection corresponded to the change in policy goal priority from "risk prevention" to "stable growth" [4][29]. - Currently, the central bank's "inactions" may include: improved flexibility and precision in liquidity regulation in 2025, with June smoothly passing multiple liquidity tests; large banks' purchases of short - term treasury bonds may not directly equal the central bank's purchases; the central bank is still concerned about bond market interest - rate risks; and the government bond supply pressure decreased in June, with the next peak likely in August - September. Therefore, treasury bond trading may not necessarily occur in July, and the market may fluctuate in the short term [30][35]. 4. Next Week's Focus - June 30: China's official manufacturing PMI for June, Eurozone's M1/M2/M3 for May, Germany's CPI for June. - July 1: Eurozone's CPI for June, US ISM manufacturing PMI for June. - July 2: US ADP employment for June. - July 3: US non - farm payrolls for June, US ISM non - manufacturing PMI for June. - July 4: EU PPI for May [38][39].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) shifted from net liquidity injection to net withdrawal, conducting a 454.5 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net withdrawal of 375.5 billion yuan on June 3 [1] - Analysts expect the PBOC to maintain a reasonable liquidity level, utilizing various short- and medium-term liquidity management tools to ensure sufficient liquidity in the banking system as the mid-year approaches [1][2] - Historical trends indicate that June is a significant month for credit issuance, with banks likely to increase reserve requirements seasonally, impacting liquidity [1] Group 2 - The PBOC has room for further monetary policy easing, aiming for "appropriate looseness" while flexibly adjusting the implementation of policies based on domestic and international economic conditions [2] - The PBOC's liquidity management tools are becoming more balanced in terms of duration, allowing for precise liquidity adjustments through various instruments [2] - The PBOC may consider resuming government bond trading operations based on market conditions and yield changes, as indicated in the 2025 Q1 monetary policy report [2] Group 3 - There is limited pressure for tightening liquidity in the future, with the interbank market's 7-day bond repurchase rate expected to fluctuate around 1.5% [3] - The PBOC is committed to implementing an appropriately loose monetary policy while coordinating with fiscal policies to promote high-quality economic development [3]

21世纪经济报道记者余纪昕 上海报道 在央行通过货币政策工具配合应对，连续多个交易日"削峰填谷"操作呵护资金面的支持下，市场流动性 保持平稳，为今年财政政策的提前发力提供了平稳的市场环境。 投资人士普遍表示，当前资金面并不紧张，单日近3000亿元特别国债集中供给带来的流动性压力在资 金"放水"下得到了有效缓解。 4月24日，2025年超长期特别国债和中央金融机构注资特别国债首次发行工作同步启动。 | | 20年期 | 30年期 | 5年期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 超长期特别国债 | 超长期特别国债 | 中央金融机构注资特别国债 | | 发行金额 | 500亿元 | 710亿元 | 1650亿元 | | 中标利率 | 1. 98% | 1.88% | 1. 45% | | 全场倍数 | 3.11 | 3. 66 | 2. 67 | | 边际倍数 | 8. 42 | 3. 43 | 1. 97 | 信息来源：公开资料，21世纪经济报道记者梳理 从市场表现看，本次发行基本符合预期，机构认购情绪符合预期，未出现"发飞"情况，债市投资机构整 体表现出了较强的投标承接能力和意愿。 ...