Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 495.8 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.4%, resulting in a net injection of 325.1 billion yuan on July 28 [1][6][7] - The PBOC's actions are aimed at maintaining liquidity in the market, especially as the end of the month approaches, which typically sees seasonal tightening of funds [8][12] - The bond market has shown signs of recovery following the PBOC's increased liquidity measures, with yields on government bonds declining across various maturities [10][11] Group 2 - The recent increase in liquidity is a response to rising interest rates and tightening market conditions, particularly influenced by the recent surge in commodity prices [7][12] - Analysts expect the PBOC to continue implementing significant net liquidity injections to stabilize market expectations and prevent excessive interest rate increases [12][14] - The bond market has experienced fluctuations, with the 30-year government bond yield rising to 1.98% before the PBOC's interventions led to a decrease in yields [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 1.875 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous level [1] Group 1 - On the same day, 847 billion yuan of reverse repos matured [1] - Throughout the week, the PBOC executed a total of 1.7268 trillion yuan in 7-day reverse repos [1] - This week saw 4.257 trillion yuan in 7-day reverse repos and 1 trillion yuan in 1-year Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) maturing [1] Group 2 - The net injection for the week amounted to 1.2011 trillion yuan [1]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a net injection of 102.8 billion yuan through reverse repos on July 18, 2025, following a total of 1,875 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos, with 847 billion yuan maturing on the same day [1]. Group 1: Reverse Repo Operations - On July 18, 2025, the PBOC executed a reverse repo operation of 1,875 billion yuan for a 7-day term, resulting in a net injection of 102.8 billion yuan after accounting for the 847 billion yuan that matured [1]. - For the week, the PBOC conducted a total of 17,268 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos, with 4,257 billion yuan maturing along with 1,000 billion yuan in 1-year Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), leading to a net injection of 12,011 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Maturity and Interest Rates - The reverse repos conducted on July 18 had an interest rate of 1.4% [4]. - The maturity schedule for reverse repos shows various amounts maturing over the preceding days, with significant amounts such as 4,505 billion yuan on July 17 and 5,201 billion yuan on July 16 [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the adjustments in monetary policy framework, emphasizing the shift towards a more neutral stance on price signals and the management of liquidity, which may lead to a consistent pattern of short-term interest rates declining ahead of long-term rates [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Adjustments - The second quarter monetary policy meeting indicates a shift from "timely reserve requirement and interest rate cuts" to "flexibly grasping the implementation strength and rhythm of policies," reflecting a more neutral approach [1]. - The central bank's cautious stance on broad monetary policy tools aligns with the need to avoid excessive market trading following initial cuts [1]. - The adjustments in liquidity management since mid-2024 show a clear distinction between guiding market pricing and influencing supply-demand dynamics [1][3]. Group 2: Constraints on Monetary Policy - The constraints on broad monetary policy are driven by two main factors: supporting economic growth by lowering financing rates for the real economy and maintaining stability in the financial system, particularly avoiding excessively low long-term bond rates [2]. - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" is influenced by yield differentials, with three key characteristics observed: bond market rates affecting deposit rate adjustments, equity market performance impacting fund outflows, and the dispersed nature of fund outflows [2]. Group 3: Long-term Liquidity Mechanism Changes - Following the dual cuts in May, the pace of liquidity easing has slowed due to changes in the liquidity adjustment framework, highlighting two significant shifts: the opportunity cost of reserve requirement cuts remains high, and the pricing of medium to long-term liquidity is now a "soft connection" with policy rates [3]. Group 4: Long-term Bond Rates Outlook - The potential for long-term bond rates to decline hinges on the performance of one-year time deposits; if these rates drop further, it could lead to a breakthrough in ten-year government bond rates [4]. - The relationship between one-year time deposit rates and ten-year government bond rates remains strong, with expectations that continued declines in deposit rates will facilitate downward movement in long-term bond rates [4].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View - In the short - term, after a strong breakthrough, stock indices are likely to oscillate strongly driven by sentiment and liquidity. Attention should be paid to macro incremental information for direction guidance. In the long - term, the July Politburo meeting will set the policy tone for the second half of the year. Given the possible further deterioration of real estate sales and investment and the overall weakness of consumption, stable domestic demand requires more policy support. Overseas, with the Fed's possible interest - rate cuts and geopolitical changes, there will be trading opportunities for stock indices [6]. 3. Content Summaries Money Market - DR001 closed at 1.51 with a 14.09bp increase, DR007 at 1.91 with a 20.92bp increase, GC001 at 1.46 with a 68.00bp decrease, and GC007 at 1.58 with an 11.00bp decrease. SHBOR 3M was at 1.63 with a 0.20bp decrease, LPR 5 - year remained at 3.50. The 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year Chinese treasury bonds were at 1.34, 1.49, and 1.65 respectively, with changes of - 0.50bp, 0.50bp, and 0.10bp. The 10 - year US treasury bond was at 4.24 with a 5.00bp decrease [3]. - The central bank conducted 1310 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40% yesterday. With 4065 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, there was a net withdrawal of 2755 billion yuan. This week, 20275 billion yuan of reverse repurchases are due, and the central bank will conduct 3000 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations on the 25th, resulting in a net injection of 1180 billion yuan after the 1820 - billion - yuan maturity, and a net injection of 3180 billion yuan in medium - term liquidity considering repurchase operations. In the future, the central bank may continue to supplement liquidity through MLF over - renewal or combined with reverse repurchases [3][4]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, the CSI 300 rose 0.17% to 3942.8, the SSE 50 rose 0.21% to 2717.7, the CSI 500 rose 0.33% to 5934.7, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.28% to 6373.8. The trading volume of the two stock markets was 14660 billion yuan, a decrease of 208 billion yuan. Most industry sectors rose, with glass fiber, chemical pharmaceuticals, and others leading the gains, while diversified finance, software development, etc. led the losses [6]. - The closing prices and changes of stock index futures contracts are as follows: IF当月 closed at 3912 with a 0.1% increase, IH当月 at 2696 with a 0.1% increase, IC当月 at 2868 with a 0.1% increase, and IM当月 at 6287 with a 0.1% increase. The trading volumes of IF, IH, IC decreased by 11.4%, 21.1%, 3.7% respectively, while IM increased by 5.7%. The open interests of IF, IH, IC decreased by 2.4%, 3.1%, 0.2% respectively, while IM increased by 3.3% [5]. - The premium/discount rates of stock index futures contracts are as follows: IF升贴水 for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 16.97%, 9.83%, 6.57%, 5.01% respectively; IH升贴水 are 17.15%, 7.97%, 4.69%, 2.21% respectively; IC升贴水 are 24.12%, 16.00%, 13.07%, 10.61% respectively; IM升贴水 are 29.30%, 20.79%, 17.21%, 14.14% respectively [7].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation of 454.5 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40% on June 3, resulting in a net withdrawal of 375.5 billion yuan due to 830 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day [1] - In May, the PBOC implemented a total of 700 billion yuan in buyout reverse repos, with 400 billion yuan for 3 months and 300 billion yuan for 6 months, leading to a net withdrawal of 200 billion yuan for the month [1] - The PBOC's actions in May included a 0.1 percentage point interest rate cut and a 0.5 percentage point reserve requirement ratio reduction, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in liquidity, indicating a continued supportive stance on liquidity [1] Group 2 - The PBOC is closely monitoring changes in overseas central bank policies and is utilizing various monetary policy tools to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system [2] - In June, there is no overall liquidity gap expected, but fluctuations may occur due to concentrated fiscal spending at the end of the month [2] - The net financing scale for government bonds in June is estimated at 963 billion yuan, a significant decrease from 1.49 trillion yuan in May, but fiscal spending is expected to provide some support to liquidity [3] Group 3 - As of June 3, the weighted average interest rate for 7-day pledged repos (DR007) was 1.5496%, down from 1.6645% on May 30 [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The central bank's attitude has eased, with increased reverse repurchase and MLF投放, and falling interest rates. The downward space for funds is greater than the upward space. The central bank's response to the tariff shock has been calm, and the decline in interest rates has been limited. The weakening fundamentals may drive interest rates down further. There are two possible "broad money" models, and the second model is more likely, with the negative impact of monetary factors on the bond market decreasing [5][6][37]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 4 - Month Review: Lowered Fund Center, but Weak Expectations for Interest Rate Cuts - **Central Bank's Attitude**: The central bank's attitude in April was "stable with a slight easing." Net 7 - day reverse repurchase was 320.8 billion yuan, and 1 - year MLF had a net injection of 50 billion yuan, with a total open - market operation injection of 820.8 billion yuan. However, the net withdrawal of outright reverse repurchase was 50 billion yuan. The central bank's current attitude towards the funds remains stable, but has eased compared to the beginning of the year [2][12]. - **Fund Price**: The central level of fund interest rates for all terms decreased in April compared to March. DR001 and DR007 decreased by 10bp and 15bp to 1.67% and 1.73% respectively; R001 and R007 decreased by 15bp and 19bp to 1.71% and 1.77% respectively. The spread between DR007 and the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate narrowed to 23bp [3][13]. - **Certificate of Deposit**: In April, the issuance volume and price of certificates of deposit decreased. The total issuance volume of inter - bank certificates of deposit by state - owned and joint - stock banks dropped from 2.7 trillion yuan to 1.7 trillion yuan. The weighted average issuance rates of state - owned and joint - stock banks' inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased by 23bp and 22bp respectively, and the yields to maturity of 3M, 6M, and 1Y certificates of deposit decreased by 21bp, 21bp, and 19bp respectively [3][14]. - **Interest Rate Cut Expectations**: The market has not restarted "interest rate cut trading." From the perspectives of IRS:FR007 and FR007 spread, floating - rate and fixed - rate bond YTM spread, and the monetary tightness and looseness expectation index, the expectation of interest rate cuts in the bond market in April was volatile, mainly affected by changing tariff policies and the "determination" of domestic monetary policy [4][15]. 5 - Month Outlook: External and Internal Pressures Cause Disturbances, and There May Be Room for Funds to Go Down - **Central Bank's Attitude and Interest Rate Space**: Compared with the "abnormally high" fund - policy spread in Q1, the central bank's attitude has eased, with increased reverse repurchase and MLF投放, and falling interest rates for two consecutive months. The downward space for funds is greater than the upward space [5][25]. - **Tariff Impact**: The central bank has been "calm" in the face of the tariff shock. The decline in interest rates since the trade friction has been limited compared to historical shock events. From March to April, the spread between DR007 and the policy rate only narrowed by 39bp [5][25][26]. - **Fundamentals**: The fundamentals do not support a trend of rising fund prices. The PMI and building materials composite index have declined, and the negative impact of trade friction on the economy has been reflected in multiple dimensions. If the fundamentals weaken, it may drive interest rates down further [5][29]. - **Government Bond Financing**: In May, the net financing scale of government bonds is expected to increase significantly compared to April. The estimated net financing scale of national bonds is about 970 billion yuan, and that of local bonds is about 450.3 billion yuan, with a total of about 1.4 trillion yuan [32]. - **Liquidity Gap**: The liquidity gap in May may narrow slightly compared to April, mainly due to the lower maturity of outright reverse repurchase. However, attention should be paid to the disturbance of government bond issuance [33][34]. - **Broad Money Path**: There are two possible "broad money" models for the central bank. The second model (first compressing the spread and then cutting the policy rate) shows more signs of implementation, and the negative impact of monetary factors on the bond market is decreasing [6][37].