Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not available Group 2: Core Views - The current low - level capital price reflects the central bank's intention, and the trigger may be the demand for capital protection before the Fourth Plenary Session or the demand for liquidity easing during the repeated Sino - US relations. Capital is expected to remain optimistic until at least the Fourth Plenary Session. It is recommended to allocate 1 - year certificates of deposit (CDs) at a yield above 1.68% [4]. - Considering the central bank's supportive attitude, the forward - looking net investment in outright reverse repurchases has kept the weighted price of DR001 stable at 1.31% since early October. The capital situation is expected to remain optimistic before the Fourth Plenary Session. The 1 - year CD with a current yield of 1.67% can be gradually allocated to obtain riding returns [23]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fund Super - expected Looseness - Last week, the central bank significantly "shortened the short - term and lengthened the long - term", and the capital felt loose. The DR001 capital price remained stable at around 1.31% throughout the week [10]. - The central bank's "shortening the short - term and lengthening the long - term" operation is obvious. On the one hand, it is beneficial to the stability of commercial banks' capital lending, and on the other hand, it helps the central bank strengthen the regulation of the short - term capital market. In October, the central bank continuously withdrew short - term liquidity, while the net investment of outright reverse repurchases reached the highest value since March [16]. - In October, the central bank increased the 3 - month and 6 - month outright reverse repurchases and advanced the investment rhythm, which increased commercial banks' willingness to lend and supported the current capital looseness [18]. - The increase in short - term CD prices is mainly due to supply - side factors. The current low - level capital price represents the central bank's intention. Since October 9, the weighted price of DR001 has been stable at 1.31% [21][22]. 2. Weekly Fund CD Tracking and Key Event Reminders - **Central Bank**: Last week, the central bank had a net withdrawal of reverse repurchases and invested 60 billion yuan in 6 - month outright reverse repurchases. Next week, 67.31 billion yuan of short - term funds will mature, and 130 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase funds and 70 billion yuan of MLF will mature in October [28]. - **Government Bonds**: Last week, the net financing of government bonds was - 2.36 billion yuan, and the cumulative net financing was 1.15455 trillion yuan, with a net financing progress of 83.3%. Next week, the net financing of government bonds is expected to be 44.52 billion yuan, and the cumulative net financing will reach 1.19908 trillion yuan, with a net financing progress of 86.5%. The net payment will be 15.84 billion yuan. Structurally, replacement bonds are close to full issuance, and the issuance progress of new local government bonds is still slower than the seasonal average [28]. - **Bills**: The bill interest rate was oversupplied last week, and the bill interest rate generally increased [28]. - **Exchange Rate**: The RMB depreciated by 0.05% against the US dollar last week. The USDCNH/USDCNY swap points were around 1300/1200 points. The central bank's demand for exchange rate regulation was weak [28]. - **Funds**: The central bank continuously invested, and the net lending of state - owned banks continued to increase. The capital price decreased, the net lending of capital pass - through parties (money market funds + wealth management products) decreased, and the non - bank capital borrowing demand continued to increase. The capital stratification remained at a low level. In terms of leverage, the leverage ratio of commercial banks decreased, while the leverage ratios of other institutions increased. In terms of price perception, the decline of the GC series > the increase of the R series > the increase of the DR series > the decline of the Shibor, and the term and institutional stratification narrowed, and the capital felt loose [28]. - **CDs**: In the primary market, the net financing of bank CDs turned positive last week, and the weighted issuance duration also lengthened. In the secondary market, the activity of CDs continued to decline, the yield center was basically the same as before, and non - bank buying increased significantly. The 1 - year AAA CD yield is currently 1.6725% [28][69][80]. 3. Central Bank: 6 - month Outright Reverse Repurchase Investment of 60 Billion Yuan - Last week, the central bank had a net withdrawal of reverse repurchases and invested 60 billion yuan in 6 - month outright reverse repurchases. The OMO had a net withdrawal of 149.92 billion yuan. Next week, 67.31 billion yuan of short - term funds will mature, and 130 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase funds and 70 billion yuan of MLF will mature in October [31][33]. 4. Government Bonds: Next Week's Net Payment to Rise to 15.84 Billion Yuan - Last week, the net financing of government bonds was - 2.36 billion yuan, and the cumulative net financing was 1.15455 trillion yuan, with a net financing progress of 83.3%. Next week, the net financing of government bonds is expected to be 44.52 billion yuan, and the cumulative net financing will reach 1.19908 trillion yuan, with a net financing progress of 86.5%. The net payment will be 15.84 billion yuan. Structurally, replacement bonds are close to full issuance, and the issuance progress of new local government bonds is still slower than the seasonal average. On October 20, a 149 - billion - yuan 10 - year treasury bond will be issued, and the peak of the government bond payment for the whole week will be on October 21, with an amount of 366.6 billion yuan [36][43]. 5. Bills: This Week's Bill Trend Generally Upward - The bill interest rate was oversupplied this week, and the bill trend generally increased. As of October 17, the 3 - month national - share direct discount rate, 3 - month national - share transfer discount rate, 6 - month national - share direct discount rate, and 6 - month national - share transfer discount rate were 0.57%, 0.43%, 0.75%, and 0.76% respectively, up 7BP, 8BP, 3BP, and 2BP from October 10 [45]. 6. Exchange Rate: RMB Exchange Rate Depreciated - The RMB depreciated by 0.05% against the US dollar this week. The USDCNH/USDCNY swap points were around 1300/1200 points. The central bank's demand for exchange rate regulation was weak. On October 17, the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.0949, and the inverse cycle factor was - 242pip. The central bank did not announce or issue offshore central bank bills this week [49][51][52]. 7. Market Capital Supply and Demand: Net Lending of State - owned Banks Continued to Recover - The central bank continuously invested, and the net lending of state - owned banks continued to increase. The capital price decreased, the net lending of capital pass - through parties (money market funds + wealth management products) decreased, and the non - bank capital borrowing demand continued to increase. The capital stratification remained at a low level. The leverage ratio of commercial banks decreased, while the leverage ratios of other institutions increased. The decline of the GC series > the increase of the R series > the increase of the DR series > the decline of the Shibor, and the term and institutional stratification narrowed, and the capital felt loose [54][61][67]. 8. CDs: Net Financing of State - owned Bank CDs Turned Positive, and the Weighted Issuance Duration Lengthened 8.1 Primary Issuance Market - The net financing of bank CDs turned positive last week, with a net financing scale of 22.466 billion yuan, and the average issuance interest rate decreased to 1.6315%. Next week, about 61.789 billion yuan of CDs will mature. Structurally, the net financing of state - owned bank CDs turned negative, and the weighted issuance duration lengthened. In terms of different entities, the net financing of national - share banks turned negative, the proportion increased, and the overall subscription success rate decreased. In terms of different terms, the weighted issuance duration of CDs increased to 6.07 months, and the proportion of long - term CD issuance by national - share banks decreased. In terms of price, the issuance interest rates of CDs at all terms decreased to varying degrees, with short - duration varieties declining more [69][73][75]. 8.2 Secondary Trading Market - The activity of CDs continued to decline last week, the yield center was basically the same as before, and non - bank buying increased significantly. The CD yield first increased and then decreased, and the weekly center increased by 0.03BP compared with last week, basically remaining the same. The bank system was a net seller as a whole, while non - banks except securities firms were net buyers, among which the strength of money market funds, wealth management products, and insurance significantly recovered. The 1 - year AAA CD yield is currently 1.6725% [80][83].

Core Viewpoint - The central bank has resumed 14-day reverse repo operations after an 8-month hiatus, indicating a moderately accommodative monetary policy stance to ensure liquidity ahead of the upcoming holidays [1][2]. Group 1: Central Bank Operations - The central bank conducted a 300 billion yuan 14-day reverse repo operation and a 240.5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation, aimed at providing liquidity before the holiday [1]. - The initiation of the 14-day reverse repo operation is earlier than in previous years, which helps alleviate the preventive funding needs of institutions before the quarter-end and holiday [2]. - The 14-day reverse repo operation has shifted to a "American-style bidding" process, allowing for fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multiple price bids, which is expected to enhance liquidity management [2][3]. Group 2: Market Liquidity and Challenges - Despite the central bank's efforts to inject liquidity, the market still faces significant liquidity pressure due to large-scale fund expirations and various disruptive factors [4]. - The upcoming week will see 1.83 trillion yuan in expiring funds, with significant expirations on specific days, which may impact overnight funding rates [4]. - Additional liquidity pressures arise from the listing of a new entity, expected to freeze around 600 billion yuan, and the expiration of a 300 billion yuan 1-year MLF [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Experts anticipate that the central bank will flexibly combine long, medium, and short-term operations to smooth out liquidity injection and absorption rhythms, leading to more precise and efficient liquidity management [6]. - The frequency of 14-day reverse repo operations is expected to normalize, potentially reducing the weighted cost of bank liabilities [6]. - The central bank is likely to continue using various policy tools, including reverse repos and MLF, to inject medium-term liquidity and limit the upward pressure on mid-to-long-term market interest rates [6].

Monetary Policy Operations - The People's Bank of China conducted a 288.4 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase and a 600 billion yuan 1-year MLF operation, resulting in a net injection of 621.9 billion yuan into the market after 266.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured on the same day [1] Interbank Offered Rates - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) showed mixed movements on August 25, with the overnight Shibor decreasing by 6.20 basis points to 1.3560%, while the 7-day Shibor increased by 2.10 basis points to 1.4840% [2][3] - The 14-day Shibor fell by 2.60 basis points to 1.5550% [2] Repo Market Activity - In the interbank pledged repo market, overnight and 14-day rates decreased, while the 7-day rates increased. The weighted average rates for DR001 and R001 fell by 6.3 basis points and 5.7 basis points, respectively, while DR007 and R007 rose by 5.4 basis points and 7.7 basis points [4] Funding Conditions - The overall funding conditions remained balanced and slightly loose throughout the day, with overnight rates for pledged deposits trading around 1.40%-1.42% and 7-day rates around 1.55% [10] - A total of 77 interbank certificates of deposit were issued, with an actual issuance amount of 167.53 billion yuan [10] Secondary Market Trends - The secondary market for certificates of deposit showed a downward trend, with 3-month and 1-year yields slightly decreasing compared to the previous trading day [11]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 495.8 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.4%, resulting in a net injection of 325.1 billion yuan on July 28 [1][6][7] - The PBOC's actions are aimed at maintaining liquidity in the market, especially as the end of the month approaches, which typically sees seasonal tightening of funds [8][12] - The bond market has shown signs of recovery following the PBOC's increased liquidity measures, with yields on government bonds declining across various maturities [10][11] Group 2 - The recent increase in liquidity is a response to rising interest rates and tightening market conditions, particularly influenced by the recent surge in commodity prices [7][12] - Analysts expect the PBOC to continue implementing significant net liquidity injections to stabilize market expectations and prevent excessive interest rate increases [12][14] - The bond market has experienced fluctuations, with the 30-year government bond yield rising to 1.98% before the PBOC's interventions led to a decrease in yields [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 1.875 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous level [1] Group 1 - On the same day, 847 billion yuan of reverse repos matured [1] - Throughout the week, the PBOC executed a total of 1.7268 trillion yuan in 7-day reverse repos [1] - This week saw 4.257 trillion yuan in 7-day reverse repos and 1 trillion yuan in 1-year Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) maturing [1] Group 2 - The net injection for the week amounted to 1.2011 trillion yuan [1]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a net injection of 102.8 billion yuan through reverse repos on July 18, 2025, following a total of 1,875 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos, with 847 billion yuan maturing on the same day [1]. Group 1: Reverse Repo Operations - On July 18, 2025, the PBOC executed a reverse repo operation of 1,875 billion yuan for a 7-day term, resulting in a net injection of 102.8 billion yuan after accounting for the 847 billion yuan that matured [1]. - For the week, the PBOC conducted a total of 17,268 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos, with 4,257 billion yuan maturing along with 1,000 billion yuan in 1-year Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), leading to a net injection of 12,011 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Maturity and Interest Rates - The reverse repos conducted on July 18 had an interest rate of 1.4% [4]. - The maturity schedule for reverse repos shows various amounts maturing over the preceding days, with significant amounts such as 4,505 billion yuan on July 17 and 5,201 billion yuan on July 16 [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the adjustments in monetary policy framework, emphasizing the shift towards a more neutral stance on price signals and the management of liquidity, which may lead to a consistent pattern of short-term interest rates declining ahead of long-term rates [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Adjustments - The second quarter monetary policy meeting indicates a shift from "timely reserve requirement and interest rate cuts" to "flexibly grasping the implementation strength and rhythm of policies," reflecting a more neutral approach [1]. - The central bank's cautious stance on broad monetary policy tools aligns with the need to avoid excessive market trading following initial cuts [1]. - The adjustments in liquidity management since mid-2024 show a clear distinction between guiding market pricing and influencing supply-demand dynamics [1][3]. Group 2: Constraints on Monetary Policy - The constraints on broad monetary policy are driven by two main factors: supporting economic growth by lowering financing rates for the real economy and maintaining stability in the financial system, particularly avoiding excessively low long-term bond rates [2]. - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" is influenced by yield differentials, with three key characteristics observed: bond market rates affecting deposit rate adjustments, equity market performance impacting fund outflows, and the dispersed nature of fund outflows [2]. Group 3: Long-term Liquidity Mechanism Changes - Following the dual cuts in May, the pace of liquidity easing has slowed due to changes in the liquidity adjustment framework, highlighting two significant shifts: the opportunity cost of reserve requirement cuts remains high, and the pricing of medium to long-term liquidity is now a "soft connection" with policy rates [3]. Group 4: Long-term Bond Rates Outlook - The potential for long-term bond rates to decline hinges on the performance of one-year time deposits; if these rates drop further, it could lead to a breakthrough in ten-year government bond rates [4]. - The relationship between one-year time deposit rates and ten-year government bond rates remains strong, with expectations that continued declines in deposit rates will facilitate downward movement in long-term bond rates [4].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View - In the short - term, after a strong breakthrough, stock indices are likely to oscillate strongly driven by sentiment and liquidity. Attention should be paid to macro incremental information for direction guidance. In the long - term, the July Politburo meeting will set the policy tone for the second half of the year. Given the possible further deterioration of real estate sales and investment and the overall weakness of consumption, stable domestic demand requires more policy support. Overseas, with the Fed's possible interest - rate cuts and geopolitical changes, there will be trading opportunities for stock indices [6]. 3. Content Summaries Money Market - DR001 closed at 1.51 with a 14.09bp increase, DR007 at 1.91 with a 20.92bp increase, GC001 at 1.46 with a 68.00bp decrease, and GC007 at 1.58 with an 11.00bp decrease. SHBOR 3M was at 1.63 with a 0.20bp decrease, LPR 5 - year remained at 3.50. The 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year Chinese treasury bonds were at 1.34, 1.49, and 1.65 respectively, with changes of - 0.50bp, 0.50bp, and 0.10bp. The 10 - year US treasury bond was at 4.24 with a 5.00bp decrease [3]. - The central bank conducted 1310 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40% yesterday. With 4065 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, there was a net withdrawal of 2755 billion yuan. This week, 20275 billion yuan of reverse repurchases are due, and the central bank will conduct 3000 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations on the 25th, resulting in a net injection of 1180 billion yuan after the 1820 - billion - yuan maturity, and a net injection of 3180 billion yuan in medium - term liquidity considering repurchase operations. In the future, the central bank may continue to supplement liquidity through MLF over - renewal or combined with reverse repurchases [3][4]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, the CSI 300 rose 0.17% to 3942.8, the SSE 50 rose 0.21% to 2717.7, the CSI 500 rose 0.33% to 5934.7, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.28% to 6373.8. The trading volume of the two stock markets was 14660 billion yuan, a decrease of 208 billion yuan. Most industry sectors rose, with glass fiber, chemical pharmaceuticals, and others leading the gains, while diversified finance, software development, etc. led the losses [6]. - The closing prices and changes of stock index futures contracts are as follows: IF当月 closed at 3912 with a 0.1% increase, IH当月 at 2696 with a 0.1% increase, IC当月 at 2868 with a 0.1% increase, and IM当月 at 6287 with a 0.1% increase. The trading volumes of IF, IH, IC decreased by 11.4%, 21.1%, 3.7% respectively, while IM increased by 5.7%. The open interests of IF, IH, IC decreased by 2.4%, 3.1%, 0.2% respectively, while IM increased by 3.3% [5]. - The premium/discount rates of stock index futures contracts are as follows: IF升贴水 for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 16.97%, 9.83%, 6.57%, 5.01% respectively; IH升贴水 are 17.15%, 7.97%, 4.69%, 2.21% respectively; IC升贴水 are 24.12%, 16.00%, 13.07%, 10.61% respectively; IM升贴水 are 29.30%, 20.79%, 17.21%, 14.14% respectively [7].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation of 454.5 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40% on June 3, resulting in a net withdrawal of 375.5 billion yuan due to 830 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day [1] - In May, the PBOC implemented a total of 700 billion yuan in buyout reverse repos, with 400 billion yuan for 3 months and 300 billion yuan for 6 months, leading to a net withdrawal of 200 billion yuan for the month [1] - The PBOC's actions in May included a 0.1 percentage point interest rate cut and a 0.5 percentage point reserve requirement ratio reduction, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in liquidity, indicating a continued supportive stance on liquidity [1] Group 2 - The PBOC is closely monitoring changes in overseas central bank policies and is utilizing various monetary policy tools to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system [2] - In June, there is no overall liquidity gap expected, but fluctuations may occur due to concentrated fiscal spending at the end of the month [2] - The net financing scale for government bonds in June is estimated at 963 billion yuan, a significant decrease from 1.49 trillion yuan in May, but fiscal spending is expected to provide some support to liquidity [3] Group 3 - As of June 3, the weighted average interest rate for 7-day pledged repos (DR007) was 1.5496%, down from 1.6645% on May 30 [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The central bank's attitude has eased, with increased reverse repurchase and MLF投放, and falling interest rates. The downward space for funds is greater than the upward space. The central bank's response to the tariff shock has been calm, and the decline in interest rates has been limited. The weakening fundamentals may drive interest rates down further. There are two possible "broad money" models, and the second model is more likely, with the negative impact of monetary factors on the bond market decreasing [5][6][37]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 4 - Month Review: Lowered Fund Center, but Weak Expectations for Interest Rate Cuts - **Central Bank's Attitude**: The central bank's attitude in April was "stable with a slight easing." Net 7 - day reverse repurchase was 320.8 billion yuan, and 1 - year MLF had a net injection of 50 billion yuan, with a total open - market operation injection of 820.8 billion yuan. However, the net withdrawal of outright reverse repurchase was 50 billion yuan. The central bank's current attitude towards the funds remains stable, but has eased compared to the beginning of the year [2][12]. - **Fund Price**: The central level of fund interest rates for all terms decreased in April compared to March. DR001 and DR007 decreased by 10bp and 15bp to 1.67% and 1.73% respectively; R001 and R007 decreased by 15bp and 19bp to 1.71% and 1.77% respectively. The spread between DR007 and the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate narrowed to 23bp [3][13]. - **Certificate of Deposit**: In April, the issuance volume and price of certificates of deposit decreased. The total issuance volume of inter - bank certificates of deposit by state - owned and joint - stock banks dropped from 2.7 trillion yuan to 1.7 trillion yuan. The weighted average issuance rates of state - owned and joint - stock banks' inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased by 23bp and 22bp respectively, and the yields to maturity of 3M, 6M, and 1Y certificates of deposit decreased by 21bp, 21bp, and 19bp respectively [3][14]. - **Interest Rate Cut Expectations**: The market has not restarted "interest rate cut trading." From the perspectives of IRS:FR007 and FR007 spread, floating - rate and fixed - rate bond YTM spread, and the monetary tightness and looseness expectation index, the expectation of interest rate cuts in the bond market in April was volatile, mainly affected by changing tariff policies and the "determination" of domestic monetary policy [4][15]. 5 - Month Outlook: External and Internal Pressures Cause Disturbances, and There May Be Room for Funds to Go Down - **Central Bank's Attitude and Interest Rate Space**: Compared with the "abnormally high" fund - policy spread in Q1, the central bank's attitude has eased, with increased reverse repurchase and MLF投放, and falling interest rates for two consecutive months. The downward space for funds is greater than the upward space [5][25]. - **Tariff Impact**: The central bank has been "calm" in the face of the tariff shock. The decline in interest rates since the trade friction has been limited compared to historical shock events. From March to April, the spread between DR007 and the policy rate only narrowed by 39bp [5][25][26]. - **Fundamentals**: The fundamentals do not support a trend of rising fund prices. The PMI and building materials composite index have declined, and the negative impact of trade friction on the economy has been reflected in multiple dimensions. If the fundamentals weaken, it may drive interest rates down further [5][29]. - **Government Bond Financing**: In May, the net financing scale of government bonds is expected to increase significantly compared to April. The estimated net financing scale of national bonds is about 970 billion yuan, and that of local bonds is about 450.3 billion yuan, with a total of about 1.4 trillion yuan [32]. - **Liquidity Gap**: The liquidity gap in May may narrow slightly compared to April, mainly due to the lower maturity of outright reverse repurchase. However, attention should be paid to the disturbance of government bond issuance [33][34]. - **Broad Money Path**: There are two possible "broad money" models for the central bank. The second model (first compressing the spread and then cutting the policy rate) shows more signs of implementation, and the negative impact of monetary factors on the bond market is decreasing [6][37].