在2025年12月22日至12月26日当周，第一财经研究院中国金融条件日度指数均值为-2.25，基本与前一 周持平。从指数的成分指标来看，上周货币和股市指标指向宽松，债券指标指向紧缩。从货币指标来 看，央行维持稳定的货币投放，市场资金面平稳有序，主要货币市场利率低位运行。从债券市场来看， 利率债与信用债收益率同步下降，信用利差小幅扩张。从股市指标来看，A股市盈率与成交量同步上 升。 12月24日，人民银行货币政策委员会2025年第四季度例会内容公布。会议内容延续了12月中旬中央经济 工作会议针对货币政策的描述，释放出一系列关键政策信号，我们的解读如下： （1）在判断国内外经济金融形势方面，会议指出"当前外部环境变化影响加深，世界经济增长动能不 足，贸易壁垒增多，主要经济体经济表现有所分化，通胀走势和货币政策调整存在不确定性。我国经济 运行总体平稳、稳中有进，高质量发展取得新成效，但仍面临供强需弱矛盾突出等问题和挑战。"会议 延续了中央经济工作会议对于我国经济目前"供强需弱"的描述，这也是政策促进物价合理回升的着力 点。 （2）会议指出，"要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，更好发挥货币政 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 482.3 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous rate, resulting in a net injection of 415 billion yuan after 67.3 billion yuan of reverse repos matured [1] - In the previous week, the net withdrawal from 7-day reverse repos was 34.8 billion yuan, while the PBOC conducted a 1-year Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation of 400 billion yuan, exceeding the previous amount by 100 billion yuan [1] - The average rate of DR001 is expected to drop below 1.3% for the month, indicating a continued loose monetary environment despite potential year-end disturbances [2] Group 2 - The PBOC's monetary policy committee emphasized the need for continued moderate easing and enhanced counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to support stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery [3] - Analysts predict that the first quarter of 2026 will see a path of easing through reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and structural interest rate reductions, with a potential RRR cut of 50 basis points releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in liquidity [3] - The focus of monetary policy will shift towards ensuring the smooth transmission of interest rates and adjusting the relationships between various asset rates, aiming for an overall moderate easing goal [3]

研报强调传统的拉长久期获取资本利得策略难度大幅上升，不同类型机构需要调整操作思路——交易性 资金应转向中短久期套息加杠杆策略，配置型资金需要耐心等待保险资金入场带来的买点，而年初以来 的套牢盘则应把握反弹机会逐步减仓。 定价权转移的宏观逻辑 申万宏源指出债券市场的定价权正在经历2022年以来的首次重大逆转。 在2022年之前，30年国债并非主流品种，长债与超长债的定价权牢牢掌握在配置盘手中。 但2022年后，随着新旧动能切换、信用收缩加剧和物价低迷预期深化，拉久期成为市场主流策略。大量 中长债基金发行，叠加交易性机构深度参与，债市定价权逐渐被交易盘主导。 进入2025年，市场环境再次发生根本性变化。 央行降准降息幅度保持克制，反内卷提振物价、存款搬家资产配置再平衡、资产荒压力缓解等新的宏观 叙事正在形成。 申万宏源认为中国债券市场的定价权正在发生深刻转移。 12月15日，申万宏源黄伟平团队发表研报，指出尽管10月以来国内经济数据边际回落、央行重启买债等 利好因素出现，债券利率下行幅度却相当有限，市场呈现利多出尽态势。 申万宏源认为这背后反映的是长债和超长债的定价权正从交易盘向配置盘转移。 央行流动性投放能够保 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not available Group 2: Core Views - The current low - level capital price reflects the central bank's intention, and the trigger may be the demand for capital protection before the Fourth Plenary Session or the demand for liquidity easing during the repeated Sino - US relations. Capital is expected to remain optimistic until at least the Fourth Plenary Session. It is recommended to allocate 1 - year certificates of deposit (CDs) at a yield above 1.68% [4]. - Considering the central bank's supportive attitude, the forward - looking net investment in outright reverse repurchases has kept the weighted price of DR001 stable at 1.31% since early October. The capital situation is expected to remain optimistic before the Fourth Plenary Session. The 1 - year CD with a current yield of 1.67% can be gradually allocated to obtain riding returns [23]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fund Super - expected Looseness - Last week, the central bank significantly "shortened the short - term and lengthened the long - term", and the capital felt loose. The DR001 capital price remained stable at around 1.31% throughout the week [10]. - The central bank's "shortening the short - term and lengthening the long - term" operation is obvious. On the one hand, it is beneficial to the stability of commercial banks' capital lending, and on the other hand, it helps the central bank strengthen the regulation of the short - term capital market. In October, the central bank continuously withdrew short - term liquidity, while the net investment of outright reverse repurchases reached the highest value since March [16]. - In October, the central bank increased the 3 - month and 6 - month outright reverse repurchases and advanced the investment rhythm, which increased commercial banks' willingness to lend and supported the current capital looseness [18]. - The increase in short - term CD prices is mainly due to supply - side factors. The current low - level capital price represents the central bank's intention. Since October 9, the weighted price of DR001 has been stable at 1.31% [21][22]. 2. Weekly Fund CD Tracking and Key Event Reminders - **Central Bank**: Last week, the central bank had a net withdrawal of reverse repurchases and invested 60 billion yuan in 6 - month outright reverse repurchases. Next week, 67.31 billion yuan of short - term funds will mature, and 130 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase funds and 70 billion yuan of MLF will mature in October [28]. - **Government Bonds**: Last week, the net financing of government bonds was - 2.36 billion yuan, and the cumulative net financing was 1.15455 trillion yuan, with a net financing progress of 83.3%. Next week, the net financing of government bonds is expected to be 44.52 billion yuan, and the cumulative net financing will reach 1.19908 trillion yuan, with a net financing progress of 86.5%. The net payment will be 15.84 billion yuan. Structurally, replacement bonds are close to full issuance, and the issuance progress of new local government bonds is still slower than the seasonal average [28]. - **Bills**: The bill interest rate was oversupplied last week, and the bill interest rate generally increased [28]. - **Exchange Rate**: The RMB depreciated by 0.05% against the US dollar last week. The USDCNH/USDCNY swap points were around 1300/1200 points. The central bank's demand for exchange rate regulation was weak [28]. - **Funds**: The central bank continuously invested, and the net lending of state - owned banks continued to increase. The capital price decreased, the net lending of capital pass - through parties (money market funds + wealth management products) decreased, and the non - bank capital borrowing demand continued to increase. The capital stratification remained at a low level. In terms of leverage, the leverage ratio of commercial banks decreased, while the leverage ratios of other institutions increased. In terms of price perception, the decline of the GC series > the increase of the R series > the increase of the DR series > the decline of the Shibor, and the term and institutional stratification narrowed, and the capital felt loose [28]. - **CDs**: In the primary market, the net financing of bank CDs turned positive last week, and the weighted issuance duration also lengthened. In the secondary market, the activity of CDs continued to decline, the yield center was basically the same as before, and non - bank buying increased significantly. The 1 - year AAA CD yield is currently 1.6725% [28][69][80]. 3. Central Bank: 6 - month Outright Reverse Repurchase Investment of 60 Billion Yuan - Last week, the central bank had a net withdrawal of reverse repurchases and invested 60 billion yuan in 6 - month outright reverse repurchases. The OMO had a net withdrawal of 149.92 billion yuan. Next week, 67.31 billion yuan of short - term funds will mature, and 130 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase funds and 70 billion yuan of MLF will mature in October [31][33]. 4. Government Bonds: Next Week's Net Payment to Rise to 15.84 Billion Yuan - Last week, the net financing of government bonds was - 2.36 billion yuan, and the cumulative net financing was 1.15455 trillion yuan, with a net financing progress of 83.3%. Next week, the net financing of government bonds is expected to be 44.52 billion yuan, and the cumulative net financing will reach 1.19908 trillion yuan, with a net financing progress of 86.5%. The net payment will be 15.84 billion yuan. Structurally, replacement bonds are close to full issuance, and the issuance progress of new local government bonds is still slower than the seasonal average. On October 20, a 149 - billion - yuan 10 - year treasury bond will be issued, and the peak of the government bond payment for the whole week will be on October 21, with an amount of 366.6 billion yuan [36][43]. 5. Bills: This Week's Bill Trend Generally Upward - The bill interest rate was oversupplied this week, and the bill trend generally increased. As of October 17, the 3 - month national - share direct discount rate, 3 - month national - share transfer discount rate, 6 - month national - share direct discount rate, and 6 - month national - share transfer discount rate were 0.57%, 0.43%, 0.75%, and 0.76% respectively, up 7BP, 8BP, 3BP, and 2BP from October 10 [45]. 6. Exchange Rate: RMB Exchange Rate Depreciated - The RMB depreciated by 0.05% against the US dollar this week. The USDCNH/USDCNY swap points were around 1300/1200 points. The central bank's demand for exchange rate regulation was weak. On October 17, the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.0949, and the inverse cycle factor was - 242pip. The central bank did not announce or issue offshore central bank bills this week [49][51][52]. 7. Market Capital Supply and Demand: Net Lending of State - owned Banks Continued to Recover - The central bank continuously invested, and the net lending of state - owned banks continued to increase. The capital price decreased, the net lending of capital pass - through parties (money market funds + wealth management products) decreased, and the non - bank capital borrowing demand continued to increase. The capital stratification remained at a low level. The leverage ratio of commercial banks decreased, while the leverage ratios of other institutions increased. The decline of the GC series > the increase of the R series > the increase of the DR series > the decline of the Shibor, and the term and institutional stratification narrowed, and the capital felt loose [54][61][67]. 8. CDs: Net Financing of State - owned Bank CDs Turned Positive, and the Weighted Issuance Duration Lengthened 8.1 Primary Issuance Market - The net financing of bank CDs turned positive last week, with a net financing scale of 22.466 billion yuan, and the average issuance interest rate decreased to 1.6315%. Next week, about 61.789 billion yuan of CDs will mature. Structurally, the net financing of state - owned bank CDs turned negative, and the weighted issuance duration lengthened. In terms of different entities, the net financing of national - share banks turned negative, the proportion increased, and the overall subscription success rate decreased. In terms of different terms, the weighted issuance duration of CDs increased to 6.07 months, and the proportion of long - term CD issuance by national - share banks decreased. In terms of price, the issuance interest rates of CDs at all terms decreased to varying degrees, with short - duration varieties declining more [69][73][75]. 8.2 Secondary Trading Market - The activity of CDs continued to decline last week, the yield center was basically the same as before, and non - bank buying increased significantly. The CD yield first increased and then decreased, and the weekly center increased by 0.03BP compared with last week, basically remaining the same. The bank system was a net seller as a whole, while non - banks except securities firms were net buyers, among which the strength of money market funds, wealth management products, and insurance significantly recovered. The 1 - year AAA CD yield is currently 1.6725% [80][83].

Core Viewpoint - The central bank has resumed 14-day reverse repo operations after an 8-month hiatus, indicating a moderately accommodative monetary policy stance to ensure liquidity ahead of the upcoming holidays [1][2]. Group 1: Central Bank Operations - The central bank conducted a 300 billion yuan 14-day reverse repo operation and a 240.5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation, aimed at providing liquidity before the holiday [1]. - The initiation of the 14-day reverse repo operation is earlier than in previous years, which helps alleviate the preventive funding needs of institutions before the quarter-end and holiday [2]. - The 14-day reverse repo operation has shifted to a "American-style bidding" process, allowing for fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multiple price bids, which is expected to enhance liquidity management [2][3]. Group 2: Market Liquidity and Challenges - Despite the central bank's efforts to inject liquidity, the market still faces significant liquidity pressure due to large-scale fund expirations and various disruptive factors [4]. - The upcoming week will see 1.83 trillion yuan in expiring funds, with significant expirations on specific days, which may impact overnight funding rates [4]. - Additional liquidity pressures arise from the listing of a new entity, expected to freeze around 600 billion yuan, and the expiration of a 300 billion yuan 1-year MLF [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Experts anticipate that the central bank will flexibly combine long, medium, and short-term operations to smooth out liquidity injection and absorption rhythms, leading to more precise and efficient liquidity management [6]. - The frequency of 14-day reverse repo operations is expected to normalize, potentially reducing the weighted cost of bank liabilities [6]. - The central bank is likely to continue using various policy tools, including reverse repos and MLF, to inject medium-term liquidity and limit the upward pressure on mid-to-long-term market interest rates [6].

Monetary Policy Operations - The People's Bank of China conducted a 288.4 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase and a 600 billion yuan 1-year MLF operation, resulting in a net injection of 621.9 billion yuan into the market after 266.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured on the same day [1] Interbank Offered Rates - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) showed mixed movements on August 25, with the overnight Shibor decreasing by 6.20 basis points to 1.3560%, while the 7-day Shibor increased by 2.10 basis points to 1.4840% [2][3] - The 14-day Shibor fell by 2.60 basis points to 1.5550% [2] Repo Market Activity - In the interbank pledged repo market, overnight and 14-day rates decreased, while the 7-day rates increased. The weighted average rates for DR001 and R001 fell by 6.3 basis points and 5.7 basis points, respectively, while DR007 and R007 rose by 5.4 basis points and 7.7 basis points [4] Funding Conditions - The overall funding conditions remained balanced and slightly loose throughout the day, with overnight rates for pledged deposits trading around 1.40%-1.42% and 7-day rates around 1.55% [10] - A total of 77 interbank certificates of deposit were issued, with an actual issuance amount of 167.53 billion yuan [10] Secondary Market Trends - The secondary market for certificates of deposit showed a downward trend, with 3-month and 1-year yields slightly decreasing compared to the previous trading day [11]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 495.8 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.4%, resulting in a net injection of 325.1 billion yuan on July 28 [1][6][7] - The PBOC's actions are aimed at maintaining liquidity in the market, especially as the end of the month approaches, which typically sees seasonal tightening of funds [8][12] - The bond market has shown signs of recovery following the PBOC's increased liquidity measures, with yields on government bonds declining across various maturities [10][11] Group 2 - The recent increase in liquidity is a response to rising interest rates and tightening market conditions, particularly influenced by the recent surge in commodity prices [7][12] - Analysts expect the PBOC to continue implementing significant net liquidity injections to stabilize market expectations and prevent excessive interest rate increases [12][14] - The bond market has experienced fluctuations, with the 30-year government bond yield rising to 1.98% before the PBOC's interventions led to a decrease in yields [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 1.875 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous level [1] Group 1 - On the same day, 847 billion yuan of reverse repos matured [1] - Throughout the week, the PBOC executed a total of 1.7268 trillion yuan in 7-day reverse repos [1] - This week saw 4.257 trillion yuan in 7-day reverse repos and 1 trillion yuan in 1-year Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) maturing [1] Group 2 - The net injection for the week amounted to 1.2011 trillion yuan [1]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a net injection of 102.8 billion yuan through reverse repos on July 18, 2025, following a total of 1,875 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos, with 847 billion yuan maturing on the same day [1]. Group 1: Reverse Repo Operations - On July 18, 2025, the PBOC executed a reverse repo operation of 1,875 billion yuan for a 7-day term, resulting in a net injection of 102.8 billion yuan after accounting for the 847 billion yuan that matured [1]. - For the week, the PBOC conducted a total of 17,268 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos, with 4,257 billion yuan maturing along with 1,000 billion yuan in 1-year Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), leading to a net injection of 12,011 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Maturity and Interest Rates - The reverse repos conducted on July 18 had an interest rate of 1.4% [4]. - The maturity schedule for reverse repos shows various amounts maturing over the preceding days, with significant amounts such as 4,505 billion yuan on July 17 and 5,201 billion yuan on July 16 [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the adjustments in monetary policy framework, emphasizing the shift towards a more neutral stance on price signals and the management of liquidity, which may lead to a consistent pattern of short-term interest rates declining ahead of long-term rates [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Adjustments - The second quarter monetary policy meeting indicates a shift from "timely reserve requirement and interest rate cuts" to "flexibly grasping the implementation strength and rhythm of policies," reflecting a more neutral approach [1]. - The central bank's cautious stance on broad monetary policy tools aligns with the need to avoid excessive market trading following initial cuts [1]. - The adjustments in liquidity management since mid-2024 show a clear distinction between guiding market pricing and influencing supply-demand dynamics [1][3]. Group 2: Constraints on Monetary Policy - The constraints on broad monetary policy are driven by two main factors: supporting economic growth by lowering financing rates for the real economy and maintaining stability in the financial system, particularly avoiding excessively low long-term bond rates [2]. - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" is influenced by yield differentials, with three key characteristics observed: bond market rates affecting deposit rate adjustments, equity market performance impacting fund outflows, and the dispersed nature of fund outflows [2]. Group 3: Long-term Liquidity Mechanism Changes - Following the dual cuts in May, the pace of liquidity easing has slowed due to changes in the liquidity adjustment framework, highlighting two significant shifts: the opportunity cost of reserve requirement cuts remains high, and the pricing of medium to long-term liquidity is now a "soft connection" with policy rates [3]. Group 4: Long-term Bond Rates Outlook - The potential for long-term bond rates to decline hinges on the performance of one-year time deposits; if these rates drop further, it could lead to a breakthrough in ten-year government bond rates [4]. - The relationship between one-year time deposit rates and ten-year government bond rates remains strong, with expectations that continued declines in deposit rates will facilitate downward movement in long-term bond rates [4].