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信用分析周报:科创债行情深化演绎-20250720
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan· 2025-07-20 11:45
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the central bank achieved a net injection of 1.2611 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3534 points, with equities showing strong performance, but the Treasury bond yields did not weaken significantly. The 10Y Treasury bond yield fluctuated narrowly around 1.66%, and the 1Y Treasury bond yield decreased slightly by about 2BP during the week. The end of the tax period did not bring obvious loosening of the capital side [3][41]. - Most credit spreads in different industries compressed to varying degrees this week, with only a small number of industries seeing a slight widening. The credit spreads of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and bank secondary and perpetual bonds all compressed slightly overall [3][4][41]. - The buying frenzy of science and technology innovation bond component securities has entered the second half. With the concentrated listing of science and technology innovation bond ETFs this week, the market's enthusiastic subscription has pushed the component securities market towards the end. It is recommended that funds that have participated in this round of the market may consider taking profits and exiting [4][42]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Primary Market 1.1 Net Financing Scale - This week, the net financing of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) was 173.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 54.4 billion yuan compared to last week. The total issuance was 400.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 59 billion yuan, and the total repayment was 227.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.6 billion yuan. The net financing of asset - backed securities was 18.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.2 billion yuan compared to last week [9]. - In terms of product types, the net financing of urban investment bonds was 32.1 billion yuan, an increase of 11.4 billion yuan; the net financing of industrial bonds was 61.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 51.2 billion yuan; and the net financing of financial bonds was 79.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.6 billion yuan [9]. 1.2 Issuance Cost - The weighted average issuance rates of AA and AA+ industrial and urban investment bonds this week were in the range of 2.2% - 2.5%, and the overall issuance rate of financial bonds was relatively low. The issuance rate of AA industrial bonds decreased by 37BP compared to last week, mainly due to the low issuance coupons of some bonds, while the fluctuations of other bonds were within 10BP [18]. 2. Secondary Market 2.1 Transaction Situation - The trading volume of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) decreased by 32.1 billion yuan compared to last week. The trading volume of urban investment bonds was 203.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 24.3 billion yuan; the trading volume of industrial bonds was 357.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.2 billion yuan; the trading volume of financial bonds was 460.3 billion yuan, an increase of 6.4 billion yuan. The trading volume of asset - backed securities was 16.7 billion yuan, an increase of 5.1 billion yuan [19]. - The turnover rates of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds decreased compared to last week, while that of financial bonds increased slightly. The turnover rate of urban investment bonds was 1.32%, a decrease of 0.16pct; the turnover rate of industrial bonds was 2.05%, a decrease of 0.09pct; the turnover rate of financial bonds was 3.15%, an increase of 0.02pct; the turnover rate of asset - backed securities was 0.48%, an increase of 0.15pct [20]. 2.2 Yield - The yield of AA ultra - long - term credit bonds over 10Y decreased significantly by 11BP, and the yields of other credit bonds with different terms and ratings mostly compressed by no more than 3BP compared to last week [23]. - Taking AA+ 5Y bonds of each type as an example, the yields of most bonds decreased to varying degrees. The yields of private - placement industrial bonds and renewable industrial bonds decreased by 2BP and 3BP respectively; the yield of AA+ 5Y urban investment bonds decreased by 1BP; the yield of commercial bank ordinary bonds remained unchanged, and the yield of secondary capital bonds decreased by 2BP; the yield of AA+ 5Y asset - backed securities decreased by 2BP [25]. 2.3 Credit Spreads - Overall, most credit spreads in different industries compressed to varying degrees this week, with only a small number of industries seeing a slight widening. Specifically, the credit spreads of AA+ leisure services and machinery increased by 6BP each, the credit spread of AA+ pharmaceutical and biological decreased by 7BP, and the credit spread of AAA leisure services decreased by 7BP. The fluctuations of other bonds were within 5BP [4][25]. 2.3.1 Urban Investment Bonds - In terms of terms, the credit spreads of urban investment bonds compressed slightly overall this week. The credit spreads of 0.5 - 1Y, 1 - 3Y, 3 - 5Y, 5 - 10Y, and over 10Y urban investment bonds compressed by less than 1BP, 1BP, 1BP, 2BP, and less than 1BP respectively [30]. - In terms of regions, the credit spread of AA urban investment bonds in Liaoning compressed significantly, while the fluctuations in other regions were within 5BP. The top five regions with the highest AA - rated urban investment bond credit spreads were Guizhou, Jilin, Yunnan, Gansu, and Liaoning; the top five regions for AA+ were Guizhou, Qinghai, Shaanxi, Yunnan, and Liaoning; and the top five regions for AAA were Liaoning, Yunnan, Tianjin, Jilin, and Inner Mongolia [31][32]. 2.3.2 Industrial Bonds - The credit spreads of industrial bonds compressed overall this week, with only a small number of terms and ratings seeing a slight widening. The credit spreads of 1Y AAA - and AA+ private - placement industrial bonds compressed by 1BP each, and the credit spreads of 10Y AAA -, AA+, and AA private - placement industrial bonds compressed by 3BP, 3BP, and 5BP respectively. The credit spreads of 1Y AAA -, AA+, and AA renewable industrial bonds widened by no more than 2BP, and the credit spreads of 10Y AAA -, AA+, and AA renewable industrial bonds compressed by 3BP, 4BP, and 5BP respectively. The fluctuations of other industrial bonds were within 3BP [34]. 2.3.3 Bank Capital Bonds - The credit spreads of bank secondary and perpetual bonds compressed slightly overall this week, with the compression amplitude of different terms and ratings within 3BP. The 3Y and 5Y credit spreads of AA bank perpetual bonds compressed by 3BP each, and the compression amplitudes of other bonds were no more than 2BP [37]. 3. This Week's Bond Market Sentiment - This week, the implied ratings of "HPR Huayu A" and "H20 Huayu B" issued by Chongqing Yerui Real Estate Development Co., Ltd. were downgraded; the implied ratings of 5 bond issues by Chongqing State - owned Cultural Assets Management Co., Ltd. were downgraded; Jiangshan Oupai Door Industry Co., Ltd. was placed on the watchlist, and its "Jiangshan Convertible Bond" was also placed on the watchlist; the implied ratings of "20 Guohua Life 01" and "21 Guohua Life 01" issued by Guohua Life Insurance Co., Ltd. were downgraded; the entity rating of Changde Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd. was downgraded, and the rating of its "21 Changde Rural Commercial Secondary" bond was also downgraded [3][39]. 4. Investment Recommendations - Overall, most credit spreads in different industries compressed this week. Investment strategies suggest being bullish on long - duration urban investment and capital bonds, strongly recommending the perpetual bonds of Minsheng, Bohai, and Hengfeng Banks, and paying attention to the opportunities of insurance sub - bonds [41]. - For science and technology innovation bonds, it is recommended that funds that have participated in this round of the market may consider taking profits and exiting [42].
债市调整中信用相对强势1Y期收益率逆势下行
Xinda Securities· 2025-07-12 13:22
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report In the bond market adjustment, credit bonds were relatively strong, with the yields of 1Y - term varieties declining against the trend. The yields of interest - rate bonds rose across the board this week due to the increased risk appetite brought by the rise in the equity market. Credit bond yields generally followed the interest - rate increase but showed relative strength. Credit spreads mostly declined, and the spreads of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds also showed various downward trends, while the performance of secondary perpetual bonds was weaker than that of ordinary credit bonds, and the excess spreads of industrial perpetual bonds remained flat while those of urban investment bonds increased slightly [2]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Credit bonds were relatively strong in the bond market adjustment, and the yields of 1Y - term varieties declined against the trend - Affected by the increased risk appetite from the equity market, the yields of interest - rate bonds rose across the board this week. The yields of 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y term China Development Bank bonds rose by 5BP, 4BP, 5BP, 3BP, and 3BP respectively. Credit bond yields generally followed the interest - rate increase, but 1Y - term and some 10Y - term varieties had declining yields. The yields of 1Y - term credit bonds of all ratings declined by 1 - 2BP [2][5]. - Credit spreads mostly declined, with high - grade 7Y - term varieties rising slightly. Rating spreads and term spreads mostly remained flat or declined [2][5]. 2. The spreads of urban investment bonds declined across the board, and medium - and low - grade varieties performed better - The credit spreads of external - rated AAA, AA +, and AA - grade urban investment platforms declined by 3BP, 4BP, and 5BP respectively. The spreads of most AAA - grade platforms declined by 2 - 4BP, with Inner Mongolia down 8BP; the spreads of most AA + - grade platforms declined by 3 - 5BP, with Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, and Tibet having relatively large declines; the spreads of most AA - grade platforms declined by 4 - 6BP, with Yunnan down 9BP and Guizhou down 12BP [2][9]. - By administrative level, the credit spreads of provincial, prefecture - level, and district - county - level platforms declined by 3BP, 4BP, and 4BP respectively [2][15]. 3. Most spreads of industrial bonds declined, and the spreads of AAA - grade coal bonds declined significantly - This week, the spreads of central and local state - owned enterprise real - estate bonds declined by 5 - 6BP, the spreads of mixed - ownership real - estate bonds declined by 1BP, and the spreads of private - enterprise real - estate bonds rose by 2BP. Longfor's spreads declined by 20BP, Midea Real Estate's by 5BP, Vanke's by 5BP, and Gemdale's by 4BP, while CIFI's rose by 151BP [2][13]. - The spreads of AAA, AA +, and AA - grade coal bonds declined by 13BP, 5BP, and 3BP respectively; the spreads of AAA and AA + - grade steel bonds declined by 5BP and 2BP respectively; the spreads of all - grade chemical bonds declined by 4 - 6BP [2][13]. 4. The performance of secondary perpetual bonds was weaker than that of ordinary credit bonds, and the spreads of 3Y - term varieties rose - Affected by the increase in certificate of deposit prices, the performance of secondary perpetual bonds was weaker than that of ordinary credit bonds this week, and the spreads of 3Y - term varieties rose. The yields of 1Y - term secondary perpetual bonds of all ratings rose by 3 - 4BP, and the spreads compressed by 1 - 2BP. The yields of 3Y - term AAA - grade secondary capital bonds rose by 6BP, and those of other ratings rose by 4BP, with spreads rising by 0 - 2BP; the yields of all - grade perpetual bonds rose by 5BP, and the spreads rose by 1BP [2][25][27]. 5. The excess spreads of industrial perpetual bonds remained flat, and the excess spreads of urban investment bonds increased slightly - This week, the excess spreads of 3Y - term AAA industrial perpetual bonds remained flat at 3.82BP, at the 0.95% quantile since 2015; the 5Y - term excess spreads remained flat at 8.51BP, at the 6.38% quantile. The excess spreads of 3Y - term AAA urban investment perpetual bonds rose by 0.64BP to 4.40BP, at the 0.59% quantile; the 5Y - term excess spreads rose by 0.21BP to 10.12BP, at the 10.27% quantile [2][29]. 6. Credit spread database compilation instructions - Market - wide credit spreads, commercial bank secondary perpetual spreads, and urban investment/industrial perpetual bond credit spreads are calculated based on ChinaBond Medium - and Short - Term Notes and ChinaBond Perpetual Bonds data, with historical quantiles since the beginning of 2015. Urban investment and industrial bond - related credit spreads are compiled and statistically analyzed by Cinda Securities R & D Center, with historical quantiles since the beginning of 2015 [35]. - Industrial and urban investment individual - bond credit spreads = individual - bond ChinaBond valuation (exercise) - same - term China Development Bank bond yield to maturity (calculated by linear interpolation method), and then the credit spreads of industries or regional urban investments are obtained by the arithmetic mean method [35]. - Excess spreads of bank secondary capital bonds/perpetual bonds = credit spreads of bank secondary capital bonds/perpetual bonds - credit spreads of bank ordinary bonds of the same rating and term; excess spreads of industrial/urban investment perpetual bonds = credit spreads of industrial/urban investment perpetual bonds - credit spreads of medium - term notes of the same rating and term [35].
短久期信用债利差显著压缩,二永债跟随利率调整
Xinda Securities· 2025-05-17 12:23
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Long - term credit bonds adjusted with interest rates, while short - term credit bond spreads significantly compressed. This week, affected by the easing of Sino - US trade tariff policies, market interest rates fluctuated upward. Credit bond trends were differentiated, with long - end yields adjusting with interest rates and medium - short - end yields falling. Credit spreads of various types of credit bonds compressed, with short - term varieties having a larger decline [2][5]. - Urban investment bond spreads declined. Spreads of urban investment bonds generally decreased this week, with different levels of decline for platforms of different external subject ratings and in different regions and administrative levels [2][9]. - Industrial bond spreads generally declined, and the spreads of mixed - ownership real estate bonds significantly compressed. Central and local state - owned real estate bond spreads decreased, mixed - ownership real estate bond spreads dropped significantly, and private real - estate bond spreads slightly increased. Spreads of coal, chemical, and steel bonds also declined [2][19]. - Secondary and perpetual bond spreads were generally stable, and their overall performance was weaker than that of ordinary credit bonds. Most yields of secondary and perpetual bonds followed the interest rate upward, with only some weakly - qualified varieties slightly falling [2][29]. - Industrial perpetual excess spreads were basically flat, and urban investment perpetual excess spreads slightly declined [2][32]. Summary by Directory 1. Long - term credit bonds adjusted with interest rates, short - term credit bond spreads significantly compressed - Market interest rates fluctuated upward. 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y maturity China Development Bank bond yields increased by 3BP, 3BP, 6BP, 6BP, and 5BP respectively [2][5]. - Credit bond trends were differentiated. 1Y maturity credit bond yields of all grades decreased by 3 - 6BP, 3Y maturity yields decreased by 0 - 2BP, 5Y maturity yields increased by 1 - 2BP, and 7Y and 10Y maturity yields increased by 2 - 3BP [2][5]. - Credit spreads compressed. 1Y maturity credit bond spreads of all grades decreased by 6 - 9BP, 3Y, 5Y, and 7Y maturity spreads decreased by 3 - 5BP, and 10Y maturity spreads decreased by 2BP. Rating spreads and term spreads were differentiated [2][5]. 2. Urban investment bond spreads declined - Spreads of different rating platforms declined. AAA - rated platform credit spreads decreased by 7BP, while AA+ and AA - rated platform spreads decreased by 8BP [2][9]. - Regional spreads showed different declines. In different provinces, spreads of AAA - rated platforms mostly decreased by 6 - 8BP, AA+ - rated platforms mostly decreased by 7 - 9BP, and AA - rated platforms mostly decreased by 6 - 8BP. Different regions had different decline amplitudes [9][11][12]. - Spreads of different administrative levels declined. Provincial, municipal, and district - county - level platform credit spreads decreased by 7BP, 7BP, and 8BP respectively [2][15]. 3. Industrial bond spreads generally declined, mixed - ownership real estate bond spreads significantly compressed - Real estate bond spreads varied. Central and local state - owned real estate bond spreads decreased by 6 - 7BP, mixed - ownership real estate bond spreads decreased by 104BP, and private real - estate bond spreads increased by 4BP. Spreads of some real - estate companies like Longfor and Vanke also changed [2][19]. - Spreads of other industrial bonds declined. Spreads of coal, chemical, and steel bonds decreased, with coal and chemical bonds decreasing by 7BP and steel bonds decreasing by 8BP [2][19]. 4. Secondary and perpetual bond spreads were generally stable, overall performance was weaker than that of ordinary credit bonds - Yields and spreads of different terms and grades changed. 1Y maturity secondary capital bonds and AA+ and above perpetual bonds' yields increased by 2 - 3BP, with spreads decreasing by 0 - 1BP; AA - rated perpetual bond yields decreased by 1BP, with spreads decreasing by 4BP. Similar changes occurred in 3Y and 5Y maturity bonds [2][29]. 5. Industrial perpetual excess spreads were basically flat, urban investment perpetual excess spreads slightly declined - Industrial perpetual excess spreads were stable. The AAA3Y excess spread was 11.71BP, at the 20.54% quantile since 2015, and the AAA5Y excess spread was 9.22BP, at the 9.54% quantile [2][32]. - Urban investment perpetual excess spreads declined slightly. The AAA3Y urban investment perpetual bond excess spread decreased by 0.03BP to 7.25BP, at the 3.45% quantile; the AAA5Y excess spread decreased by 0.89BP to 10.56BP, at the 9.68% quantile [2][32]. 6. Credit Spread Database Compilation Instructions - Market credit spreads and related excess spreads were calculated based on ChinaBond medium - short - term notes and perpetual bonds data, with historical quantiles starting from the beginning of 2015. Credit spreads of urban investment and industrial bonds were compiled and statistically analyzed by the R & D center of Cinda Securities, also with historical quantiles starting from 2015 [38]. - Calculation methods were provided for industrial and urban investment individual bond credit spreads, bank secondary capital bond/perpetual bond excess spreads, and industrial/urban investment perpetual bond excess spreads [38][39]. - Sample selection criteria were given, including selecting medium - term notes and public corporate bonds, excluding guaranteed and perpetual bonds, and removing bonds with remaining maturities below 0.5 years or above 5 years. Different rating types were used for different bond types [40].