1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The scale of bond ETFs has significantly increased, with credit - bond ETFs contributing the main increment. Last week, the net inflow of funds into interest - rate bond ETFs, credit - bond ETFs, and convertible - bond ETFs was 3.145 billion yuan, 19.669 billion yuan, and - 1.336 billion yuan respectively, with a total net inflow of 21.479 billion yuan in the bond ETF market [1][4]. - The scale trend of convertible - bond ETFs is differentiated, and science - innovation bond ETFs have received a large inflow of funds. Last week, the convertible - bond ETFs had a net redemption of 1.336 billion yuan, while the science - innovation bond ETFs had a net inflow of 12.058 billion yuan [1][5]. - After the end of the quarter, attention should be focused on the change of the liquidity center in April. Due to the upcoming tax period in April, combined with the rhythm of fiscal expenditure and the supply pressure of the bond market, there is a need to be vigilant about the disturbance of the short - and medium - duration products caused by the structural tightness of funds. The bond ETF market may maintain the current duration strategy, and the scale may tilt towards defensive varieties [1][6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 各类债券 ETF 资金净流入情况 - The scale of bond ETFs has grown significantly, and credit - bond ETFs contribute the main increment. As of March 27, 2026, the bond ETF fund scale was 748.058 billion yuan, up 3.13% from the previous week's closing, down 9.79% from the beginning of the year, and accounting for 14.84% of the total market ETF scale, with a 62bp increase from the previous weekend [1][4]. - The convertible - bond ETFs had a net redemption of 1.336 billion yuan last week, with the inflows of Convertible Bond ETF Haifutong and Convertible Bond ETF Boshi being + 528 million yuan and - 1.864 billion yuan respectively. The science - innovation bond ETFs had a net inflow of 12.058 billion yuan, followed by short - term financing ETFs and urban investment bond ETFs, with net inflows of 4.33 billion yuan and 2.786 billion yuan respectively last week [1][5]. 3.2 各类债券 ETF 份额走势 - As of the close on March 27, 2026, the shares of various types of bond ETFs such as treasury bond, policy - financial bond, local bond, benchmark market - making credit bond, science - innovation bond, corporate bond, short - term financing, urban investment bond, and convertible - bond ETFs were 601.05 million shares, 358.51 million shares, 163.16 million shares, 986.20 million shares, 2716.21 million shares, 339.96 million shares, 797.53 million shares, 3614.38 million shares, and 5417.95 million shares respectively, with changes of 1.0%, 2.0%, 0.9%, - 0.1%, 3.1%, 0.1%, 3.7%, 4.9%, - 0.3% compared with March 20, 2026, and the total share of bond - type ETFs changed by + 1.9%. Compared with the end of last month, the total share of bond - type ETFs changed by 3.5% [11]. 3.3 各基准做市信用债 ETF 份额及净值走势 - Among the existing 8 credit - bond ETFs, the share of Corporate Bond ETF Southern led the increase. As of the close on March 27, 2026, the shares of these 8 ETFs were 99.46 million shares, 80.41 million shares, 97.44 million shares, 96.47 million shares, 184.72 million shares, 203.30 million shares, 89.00 million shares, and 141.32 million shares respectively, with changes of no change, - 2.43%, - 2.01%, no change, 5.66%, - 0.10%, - 1.11%, no change compared with March 20, 2026 [17]. - The net value of these 8 credit - bond ETFs continued to rise. As of the close on March 27, 2026, the net values were 1.0217, 1.0210, 1.0195, 1.0198, 1.0148, 1.0179, 1.0187, and 1.0178 respectively, with changes of 0.05%, 0.06%, 0.07%, 0.06%, 0.07%, 0.07%, 0.07%, 0.07% compared with March 20, 2026, and changes of 0.24%, 0.25%, 0.25%, 0.25%, 0.25%, 0.26%, 0.24%, 0.25% compared with the end of last month [20]. 3.4 各科创债 ETF 份额及净值走势 - The net subscription shares of science - innovation bond ETFs turned positive significantly, and funds were concentrated in AAA - rated science - innovation bond products. Among the 24 existing science - innovation bond ETFs, the share had a net inflow of 119.91 million shares last week, up 4.55% from the previous week. The top three products in terms of share as of March 27, 2026, were Science - Innovation Bond ETF Harvest, Science - Innovation Bond ETF Huaxia, and Science - Innovation Bond ETF Penghua, with 278.00 million shares, 210.14 million shares, and 189.81 million shares respectively. The top three in terms of net inflow of shares were Science - Innovation Bond ETF Harvest, Science - Innovation Bond ETF Southern, and Science - Innovation Bond ETF Huaxia, all of which are products tracking the AAA science - innovation bond index [23]. - The net value increase of science - innovation bond ETFs widened. As of the close on March 27, 2026, the top - ranked products in terms of net value among the 24 science - innovation bond ETFs were Science - Innovation Bond ETF Wanjia, Science - Innovation Bond ETF Invesco Great Wall, and Science - Innovation Bond ETF Huatai - Peregrine, with net values of 1.0114, 1.0112, and 1.0112 respectively. The median net values of the first - batch and second - batch science - innovation bond ETFs last week were 1.0066 and 1.0096 respectively, up 0.06% from the previous week's closing. The median net values of products tracking the AAA science - innovation bond, Shanghai AAA science - innovation bond, and Shenzhen AAA science - innovation bond were 1.0089, 1.0074, and 1.0113 respectively, up 0.06% from the previous week's closing [31]. 3.5 上周单只债券 ETF 市场表现情况 - The net values of all bond ETF products rose last week. Convertible Bond ETF Boshi and Convertible Bond ETF Haifutong led the increase, up 1.22% and 0.81% respectively from the previous week, followed by 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF Penghua and 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF Boshi, up 0.54% and 0.51% respectively [38]. - In terms of the premium - discount rate, Science - Innovation Bond ETF Harvest, Urban Investment Bond ETF Haifutong, and Convertible Bond ETF Haifutong led with premium rates of + 0.036%, + 0.039%, and + 0.035% respectively. In terms of scale change, Science - Innovation Bond ETF Harvest (+ 6.171 billion yuan), Short - Term Financing ETF Haifutong (+ 4.33 billion yuan), and Science - Innovation Bond ETF Southern (+ 3.245 billion yuan) had the largest net inflows, while Convertible Bond ETF Boshi had a relatively large net outflow of - 1.864 billion yuan last week [38]. 3.6 基准做市信用债和科创债 ETF 的 PCF 清单边际变化 - For the PCF list of benchmark market - making credit - bond ETFs last week, among the products tracking the Shanghai market - making credit - bond index, Corporate Bond ETF Southern and Credit - Bond ETF Haifutong added 14 and 11 bonds to their PCF lists respectively, with the average modified durations of the newly added bonds being 3.65 years and 3.42 years respectively. Bond 21 Yuegao 01 was repeatedly removed from the PCF list of benchmark market - making credit - bond ETFs because it was about to mature, and Bond 25 Guolian K1 was included in the PCF lists of multiple products, with a modified duration of 3.9360 years [40]. - For the PCF list of science - innovation bond ETFs last week, the average duration of the newly added bonds of Science - Innovation Bond ETF Tianhong was relatively large, at 7.74 years. Science - Innovation Bond ETF Southern added a total of 144 bonds to its PCF list throughout the week due to a large inflow of funds (+ 3.245 billion yuan) [41]. - Bond 23 Gan Jiao K1 and other 2 bonds were repeatedly removed from the PCF lists of science - innovation bond ETFs, and 19 bonds such as 26 Yue Huan GK1 were included in the PCF lists of multiple science - innovation bond ETFs [44]. 3.7 债券 ETF 基金运营管理规则变更汇总 - In terms of the cash - substitution flag, Science - Innovation Bond ETF Huaxia changed all the cash - substitution flags of its PCF list to "must" on March 24 and March 25, 2026, and the net outflow amount of the product was 30 million yuan on both days [45].

Core Viewpoint - The ETF market is transitioning from a focus on individual product sales to a comprehensive ecosystem approach, emphasizing brand recognition and service capabilities to meet evolving investor demands [1][9]. Group 1: ETF Ecosystem Development - Fund companies are increasingly investing in building ETF ecosystems, marking a fundamental shift in competition logic within the ETF industry [2][4]. - Major fund companies like Jiashi Fund, China Merchants Fund, and Southern Fund are actively enhancing their ETF ecosystems through product family development, brand IP creation, and service system upgrades [4][5]. Group 2: Trends in ETF Ecosystem Construction - The ETF ecosystem is evolving in four distinct trends: product differentiation, service enhancement, educational engagement, and operational synergy [10][11]. - Product ecosystems are shifting towards combination and differentiation, with leading public funds focusing on creating diverse product matrices rather than just popular single products [11][12]. - Service ecosystems are extending towards "refined, full-process" offerings, with public institutions increasing service investments to provide comprehensive support for investors [13]. Group 3: Brand Recognition and Competitive Advantage - The branding of ETFs is becoming crucial, as the industry moves towards a unified naming convention that emphasizes the fund manager's brand, thereby increasing its influence on investor decisions [6][5]. - The transition to an ecosystem approach is not merely a marketing tactic but a long-term strategy aimed at fostering investor loyalty through integrated product, service, and educational offerings [15].

Core Viewpoint - The ETF industry is transitioning from a focus on individual product sales to a comprehensive ecosystem approach, emphasizing brand recognition and service capabilities to meet evolving investor demands [1][2][7]. Group 1: ETF Ecosystem Development - Fund companies are increasingly investing in building ETF ecosystems, with notable actions from firms like Jiashi Fund, CMB Fund, Southern Fund, and Ping An Fund, focusing on product family enhancement, brand IP creation, and service system upgrades [3][4]. - Jiashi Fund has created an immersive investment education ecosystem, exemplified by the successful "Jiashi Super Index Festival," which integrates product promotion and investor education [3]. - Ping An Fund has launched a brand renewal initiative, aiming to create a one-stop ETF investment ecosystem in collaboration with Ping An Securities, highlighting the importance of brand recognition in investment decisions [4]. Group 2: Shift in Competitive Logic - The ETF market is moving from a competition based on "first-mover advantage" to one focused on building a comprehensive ecosystem that includes products, services, and investor education [5][7]. - The traditional model of competing through individual products is becoming less sustainable as the market expands and product homogenization increases, leading to a need for a more integrated approach [6][7]. Group 3: Trends in ETF Ecosystem Construction - The construction of the ETF ecosystem is showing four distinct trends: product differentiation, service enhancement, operational synergy, and educational innovation [8]. - Leading public funds are shifting towards creating diversified product matrices rather than focusing solely on popular single products, which allows for more effective competition [8][9]. - The service ecosystem is evolving to provide comprehensive, fine-tuned support for investors, with many firms launching dedicated service applications to enhance user experience [10][11]. Group 4: Educational Innovations - The educational approach within the ETF ecosystem is becoming more engaging and scenario-based, moving away from traditional methods to include interactive and immersive experiences [10][11]. - The emphasis on brand building is not merely about renaming products but involves a deep integration of product features, service capabilities, and educational efforts to foster investor loyalty [11].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes a defensive strategy in a volatile market, with a preference for short-duration products, as evidenced by the net inflows into various bond ETFs [2][5][6] - Last week, the net inflows for interest rate bond ETFs, credit bond ETFs, and convertible bond ETFs were -1.457 billion, 5.023 billion, and -2.241 billion respectively, leading to a total net inflow of 1.325 billion for bond ETFs [5][6] - The total scale of bond ETFs reached 725.34 billion as of March 20, 2026, reflecting a decrease of 0.10% from the previous week and a 12.53% decline since the beginning of the year [5][6] Group 2 - Short-term products, such as short-term financing and urban investment bond ETFs, have seen significant net inflows of 5.230 billion and 1.537 billion respectively, indicating a strong market preference for these assets [6][7] - The report forecasts a gradual increase in government bond supply due to a positive fiscal policy stance for 2026, while the pace of interest rate cuts may be delayed due to inflation concerns and strong economic data from early 2026 [7] - Caution is advised regarding the accumulation of long-duration products, with a focus on defensive products that offer stable coupon yields and liquidity advantages [7] Group 3 - The report notes that the net inflow of short-duration products is driven by a "deposit substitution" effect due to stricter self-discipline in interbank interest rates [6][7] - The net outflows from convertible bond ETFs were significant, totaling -2.241 billion, as the equity market showed no clear signs of reversal [6][7] - The report highlights that the recent adjustments in the PCF list for credit bond ETFs indicate a focus on bonds with shorter durations, with average modified durations of 3.03 years and 3.84 years for newly added bonds [6][7][46]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The report tracks bond ETFs, showing that there is a differentiation between short - and long - end bonds, and credit - bond ETFs continue to experience outflows. It also presents data on the net inflows and outflows, net value performance, and duration of different types of bond ETFs [1][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fund Flows - As of March 13, 2026, bond - type ETFs had a total net outflow of 11.575 billion yuan in the past week. Interest - rate, credit, and convertible - bond ETFs had net outflows of 3.67 billion yuan, 5.141 billion yuan, and 2.764 billion yuan respectively. In credit - type ETFs, short - term financing, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds had net inflows of 2.212 billion yuan, 0.199 billion yuan, and 0.721 billion yuan respectively, while market - making credit bonds and science - innovation bonds had net outflows of 3.206 billion yuan and 5.066 billion yuan respectively. Since 2025, interest - rate, credit, and convertible - bond ETFs have had cumulative net inflows of 52.486 billion yuan, 464.916 billion yuan, and 34.751 billion yuan respectively, with a total of 552.152 billion yuan [4] 3.2 Net Value Performance - Throughout the week, the net value trends of various types of bond ETF products were differentiated. As of March 13, 2026, the 30 - year Treasury bond ETF performed weakly, falling 1.49% for the week, while the China Development Bank bond ETF and the China Development ETF rose 0.05% and 0.04% respectively. The convertible - bond ETF and the Shanghai Stock Exchange convertible - bond ETF fell 1.09% and 1.13% respectively last week [5] 3.3 Performance of Credit - Bond ETFs and Science - Innovation Bond ETFs - As of March 13, 2026, the median unit net values of credit - bond ETFs and science - innovation bond ETFs were 1.0178 and 1.0054 respectively. The credit - bond ETFs remained flat for the week, while the science - innovation bond ETFs fell 0.01%. Among credit - bond ETFs, GF Credit - Bond ETF performed relatively well, rising 0.01% for the week. Among science - innovation bond ETFs, Invesco Science - Innovation Bond ETF and Yongying Science - Innovation Bond ETF performed relatively well. As of March 13, 2026, the median discount rate of credit - bond ETFs was 9 basis points, and that of science - innovation bond ETFs was 11 basis points [6] 3.4 Duration Tracking of Credit - Type ETFs - As of March 13, 2026, the holding durations of short - term financing ETFs, corporate - bond ETFs, and urban - investment - bond ETFs were 0.30 years, 1.99 years, and 2.02 years respectively. Among market - making credit - bond ETFs, the median holding durations of products tracking the Shanghai Market - Making Corporate Bond Index and the Shenzhen Market - Making Corporate Bond Index were 3.40 years and 2.81 years respectively. Among science - innovation bond ETFs, the median holding durations of products tracking the AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index, the Shanghai AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index, and the Shenzhen AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index were 3.24 years, 3.23 years, and 3.12 years respectively [9] 3.5 Report Summary - Last week, the ChinaBond New Composite Index fell 0.08% for the week. Short - term pure - bond and medium - and long - term pure - bond funds rose 0.03% and fell 0.01% respectively. The ChinaBond AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Benchmark Market - Making Corporate Bond Index rose 0.02% and 0.03% respectively [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report about the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The scale of the Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF has been declining for eight consecutive weeks, with most product scales basically stabilizing. Only 5 out of 24 Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETFs had a decline in scale last week, while the rest had a slight increase or remained stable [1]. - The scale of the Benchmark Market - Making Credit Bond ETF stopped falling and rebounded slightly, with an increase of 2 billion yuan to 104.1 billion yuan on March 6 [1]. - Among other credit bond ETFs, the Urban Investment Bond ETF and Short - Term Financing ETF of Haifutong Fund had relatively large increases, contributing the main increment to the credit bond ETF this week. The total scale of credit bond ETFs reached 524.4 billion yuan, with a weekly increase of 17 billion yuan [1]. - The weighted duration of most credit bond ETFs on March 6 was basically the same as that on February 27, with the median durations of the Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF and the Benchmark Market - Making Credit Bond ETF being 3.2 years and 3.1 years respectively [2]. - The median static yield of the credit bond ETF portfolio reached 1.85%, about 2bp lower than the previous week [2]. - The Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF mainly increased its holdings of new bonds issued in 2026, with a preference for bonds with maturities of 2 - 3 years and 4 - 5 years. The Benchmark Market - Making Credit Bond ETF had relatively shorter - term increases and decreases in holdings, mainly within 2 years [2]. - The median "non - component bond - component bond" spread of the Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF dropped to 2.6bp, narrowing by 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous week, reaching a new low since listing. The trading enthusiasm of the Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF is still low, and there is room for improvement in trading activity [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Scale of ETFs - As of March 6, the scale of the Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF was 271.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 3 billion yuan compared to February 27. The scale of the Benchmark Market - Making Credit Bond ETF was 104.1 billion yuan, an increase of 2 billion yuan. The total scale of credit bond ETFs was 524.4 billion yuan, an increase of 17 billion yuan [1]. 3.2 Duration and Yield of ETFs - The weighted duration of most credit bond ETFs on March 6 was basically the same as that on February 27, with the median durations of the Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF and the Benchmark Market - Making Credit Bond ETF being 3.2 years and 3.1 years respectively. The median static yield of the credit bond ETF portfolio was 1.85%, about 2bp lower than the previous week [2]. 3.3 Bond Holdings of ETFs - The Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF mainly increased its holdings of new bonds issued in 2026, with a preference for bonds with maturities of 2 - 3 years and 4 - 5 years. The industries involved include military, environmental protection, and urban investment. The bonds with reduced holdings also mainly had maturities of 2 - 3 years and 4 - 5 years, with a preference for central enterprise bonds in the construction, building materials, and machinery industries [2]. - The Benchmark Market - Making Credit Bond ETF had relatively shorter - term increases and decreases in holdings, mainly within 2 years. It mainly increased its holdings of local state - owned enterprise bonds with maturities of 1 - 2 years, involving industries such as transportation, environmental protection, and leasing. It mainly reduced its holdings of short - term bonds within 1 year, involving industries such as comprehensive investment and machinery [2]. 3.4 Spread and Trading Activity - The median "non - component bond - component bond" spread of the Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF dropped to 2.6bp, narrowing by 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous week, reaching a new low since listing. From March 2 - 6, the number of transactions of the Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF component bonds accounted for 6.3% of the credit bonds, still in a low - level shock. There is room for improvement in trading activity [3].

Group 1 - The capital market in December 2025 sees "hard technology" as the biggest trend, with investments focusing on high-growth sectors such as commercial aerospace, military industry, communication equipment, and robotics [1] - There is a clear shift in funding towards sectors with significantly improved fundamentals and low valuations, represented by non-ferrous metals and the chemical industry [1] - The bond market shows a high-level fluctuation in yields, with a slight increase in the 10-year government bond yield by 0.6 basis points to 1.85%, and a notable rise of 8 basis points in the 30-year government bond yield [1] Group 2 - As of the end of December 2025, there are 46,292 bank wealth management products in the market, an increase of 934 from November, with 22,871 being open-ended products [1] - Fixed-income products dominate the market, totaling 39,723, which is an increase of 829 from the previous month [1] - In December, 3,274 new wealth management products were launched, up by 507 from November, with wealth management subsidiaries accounting for 76.94% of the total issuance [1] Group 3 - The overall risk level of the products on the list has significantly increased compared to November, with 40% of products rated at level three (medium risk) and 2.86% at level four (medium-high risk) [12] - The competition among "fixed income plus" wealth management products is intense, with a further decline in retention rates for these products compared to November [13] - The investment strategies of the listed products reflect a dual focus on "growth + cycle," with significant allocations to both high-growth "hard technology" sectors and undervalued cyclical industries [17][18]

Group 1: Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is not provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The report tracks the bond ETFs, focusing on the capital outflow and duration decline of credit - type ETFs. It analyzes the capital flow, net value performance, and duration of different types of bond ETFs [1][5][6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Capital Flow - As of January 9, 2026, bond - type ETFs had a total net outflow of 64.352 billion yuan in the past week. Interest - rate, credit - type, and convertible - bond - type ETFs had a net outflow of 10.454 billion yuan, 59.224 billion yuan, and a net inflow of 5.325 billion yuan respectively. Among credit - type ETFs, short - term financing bonds, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds had a net outflow of 8.394 billion yuan, a net inflow of 0.242 billion yuan, and a net outflow of 0.006 billion yuan respectively. Market - making credit bonds and science and technology innovation bonds had a net outflow of 7.071 billion yuan and 43.995 billion yuan respectively. Since 2025, interest - rate, credit - type, and convertible - bond ETFs had cumulative net inflows of 65.923 billion yuan, 501.041 billion yuan, and 23.151 billion yuan respectively, with a total of 590.115 billion yuan [5]. Net Value Performance - Throughout the week, the net value trends of different types of bond ETF products were divergent. As of January 9, 2026, the 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF Boshi performed weakly, with a weekly decline of 1.05%. The 0 - 4 Local Bond ETF rose 0.04%, and the 5 - year Local Bond ETF rose 0.01%. The Convertible Bond ETF and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond ETF rose 4.30% and 3.39% respectively last week [6]. Performance of Credit Bond ETF and Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF - As of January 9, 2026, the median unit net values of credit bond ETF and science and technology innovation bond ETF were 1.0119 and 1.0003 respectively, with a weekly decline of 0.01% each. Among credit bond ETFs, the Haifutong Credit Bond ETF performed relatively well, with a weekly decline of 0.01%. Among science and technology innovation bond ETFs, the Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF Yin Hua and the Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF Wan Jia performed relatively well. The median discount rates of credit bond ETF and science and technology innovation bond ETF were 28BP and 22BP respectively [7]. Credit - type ETF Duration Tracking - As of January 9, 2026, the holding durations of short - term financing ETF, corporate bond ETF, and urban investment bond ETF were 0.36 years, 1.58 years, and 2.15 years respectively. Among market - making credit bond ETFs, the median holding durations of products tracking the Shanghai Market - making Corporate Bond Index and the Shenzhen Market - making Corporate Bond Index were 3.59 years and 2.81 years respectively. Among science and technology innovation bond ETFs, the median holding durations of products tracking the AAA Science and Technology Innovation Bond Index, the Shanghai AAA Science and Technology Innovation Bond Index, and the Shenzhen AAA Science and Technology Innovation Bond Index were 3.32 years, 3.26 years, and 3.17 years respectively [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report focuses on the main characteristics of bond ETF premiums and discounts and their impact on component bonds. It analyzes the influence mechanism of bond ETF premiums and discounts on component bonds, the characteristics and influencing factors of premiums and discounts, the volume - price changes of component bonds during premium and discount periods, and provides corresponding conclusions and insights [8][61]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond ETF Premium and Discount Impact Mechanism on Component Bonds - The premium - discount rate is used to measure the deviation between the bond ETF price and the net value. In the discount stage, investors redeem shares in the primary market and sell ETFs in the secondary market, leading to a decline in the ETF price and net value. Arbitrage behavior can repair the discount to some extent. In the premium stage, investors subscribe for shares in the primary market and buy ETFs in the secondary market, causing the ETF price and net value to rise, and arbitrage can repair the premium. Different redemption mechanisms (physical redemption and cash redemption) have different impacts on ETFs [9][10][12]. 3.2 Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Bond ETF Premiums and Discounts 3.2.1 When Do Premiums and Discounts Occur? - Local - government bond ETFs had continuous deep discounts from 2022 - 2023, mainly due to low trading activity. Since 2024, they have maintained a slight premium. Credit - type ETFs had discounts from September 2022 to April 2023 and in the second half of 2025, and slight premiums in 2024 and the second quarter of 2025. The physical redemption mode often has a deeper discount than the cash redemption mode [17][20][21]. 3.2.2 How Do Turnover, Share, and Net Value Change During Premium and Discount Stages? - Turnover: In the deep - discount stage, turnover is prone to peak, but the correlation has weakened since 2025 [28][29][40]. - Share: There is synchronicity between short - term deep discounts and share redemptions [33][34][36]. - Net Value: In the deep - discount stage, the ETF net value often recovers before the price [38]. - Summary: In the deep - discount stage, the underlying asset liquidity of the ETF is extremely restricted. Turnover is prone to peak, but it does not necessarily correspond to continuous large - scale redemptions. Since 2025, the correlation between the premium - discount rate and turnover, share, and net - value changes has weakened [40]. 3.3 Volume - Price Change Characteristics of ETF Component Bonds During Premium and Discount Stages 3.3.1 Volume: Trading Activity - The trading activity is measured by the ratio of the number of bonds with transactions to the number of bonds without transactions. The trading activity of component bonds in different indexes responds differently to ETF premiums and discounts. The urban investment index shows an anti - intuitive phenomenon, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen market - making indexes conform to the theoretical mechanism [43][44][46]. 3.3.2 Price: Credit Spread - The credit spread is measured by the difference between the bond's yield to maturity and the yield of the same - term China Development Bank bond. In the deep - discount stage of the urban investment index, the credit spread of non - component bonds widens more significantly. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen market - making indexes, the credit spread of component bonds widens significantly during premium and discount periods, indicating higher price - discovery efficiency [53][54][56]. 3.4 Main Conclusions and Insights - In the deep - discount stage, the underlying asset liquidity is restricted, and large - scale redemptions often occur during short - term discounts in the continuous premium stage. Different indexes have different response patterns to ETF premiums and discounts. When selecting bonds in the discount stage, it is necessary to judge the source of the discount. The lack of liquidity in the credit - bond market is a major constraint, and bond ETFs should improve market efficiency and provide protection during market adjustments [62][63].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the 城投债ETF (511220.SH) experienced a slight decline of 0.11% on December 29, 2025, with significant net outflows of main funds amounting to 125 million yuan, ranking it first in the market [1] - Over the past four days, the fund has seen accelerated outflows of main funds totaling 313 million yuan, also placing it at the top tier of the market [1] - The latest trading volume for the fund was 52.4613 million units, with the latest transaction amount falling below 540 million yuan, and the net outflow of main funds accounted for 23.36% of the transaction amount on that day [1]