研究院 新能源&有色组 研究员 封帆 联系人 王育武 投资咨询号：Z0022466 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 陈思捷 师橙 期货研究报告|新能源&有色专题 2025-10-14 河南铝产业调研 报告摘要 矿端价格依旧处于博弈阶段，北方地区国产矿受降雨影响开采，但氧化铝厂面临 亏损，因此难以给予矿端溢价。几内亚雨季进入尾声，但到港量尚未恢复，港口库存 小幅回落，进口矿价格表现较为坚挺。由于工厂成本核算并不依照实时情况，而 9 月 长单月均价尚未面临亏损，叠加生产过程中少量的锂副产品收入，当前氧化铝厂并未 触发减产。后期关注进口矿价波动情况，若矿价不降，现金流亏损的局面难以长期维 持，河南地区国产矿保证不足的企业将会面临更大困境。 从河南角度出发，消费端并无利空，整体开工率同比虽有回落，但产量呈现同比 上涨，且上涨增速大于全国。受产能扩张的影响，当地加工企业可能面临订单不足开 工率不高加工费低迷的局面，但实际生产中通过增加废料添加量以及增加规模降低成 本等方式，并未呈现现金流亏损，整体产量方面仍有保障。 1、河南地区氧化铝建成产能 1307 万吨，运行产能 890 万吨，开工率 68% ...

铝类产业日报 2025/9/11 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议， 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 | 项目类别 数据指标 | | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | | 20,915.00 | +125.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 2,945.00 | +12.00↑ | | | 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | 5.00 | -5.00↓ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | -17.00 | +28.00↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 204,582.00 | +8142.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 273,3 ...

铝类产业日报 2025/9/2 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 项目类别 | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 20,720.00 | +75.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 3,022.00 | +14.00↑ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | 30.00 | 0.00 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | -23.00 | -2.00↓ | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 213,947.00 | -7232.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 242,297.00 | -5508.00↓ | | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 12,300.00 | 0.00 库存:氧化铝:合计(周,万吨) | 119,212.00 | +15848.00↑ | LME电解铝三个月报价（日，美元/吨） | 2,619.50 | +0.50↑ LME铝库存（日，吨） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina fundamentals may be in a stage where supply growth slows down and demand remains relatively stable, with industrial expectations gradually improving under policy guidance. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum fundamentals may be in a stage where supply remains at a high level but the growth rate slows down, and demand is weak due to the off - season. The long - term expectation is still positive after policy - guided optimization. Option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The cast aluminum fundamentals may be in a stage where supply slightly converges and demand weakens in the off - season. The operation suggestion is to conduct oscillating trades with a light position, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai aluminum contract is 20,650 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the closing price of the main alumina futures contract is 3,241 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan. The main contract positions of Shanghai aluminum and alumina decreased by 1008 and 6436 hands respectively. LME aluminum cancelled warrants increased by 1575 tons, and LME aluminum inventory increased by 2300 tons. The Shanghai - London ratio is 8.05, up 0.05 [2]. - The closing price of the main cast aluminum alloy contract is 20,075 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan, and its main contract position increased by 38 hands [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum price is 20,630 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum price is 20,560 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan. The alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 3,220 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of cast aluminum alloy decreased by 635 yuan to 75 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum increased by 20 yuan to - 20 yuan. The Shanghai Wuma aluminum premium and discount is - 40 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the LME aluminum premium and discount is 0.12 dollars/ton, up 0.5 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national alumina开工率 is 84.01%, up 1.52 percentage points; the alumina production is 774.93 million tons, up 26.13 million tons. The demand for alumina in the electrolytic aluminum part decreased by 23.83 million tons to 696.19 million tons [2]. - The import of alumina increased by 3.38 million tons to 10.13 million tons, and the export decreased by 4 million tons to 17 million tons. The average price of broken primary aluminum in Foshan and Shandong metal scrap markets remained unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 1 million tons to 49.70 million tons. The electrolytic aluminum total production capacity is 4,523.20 million tons, up 2.50 million tons, and the electrolytic aluminum开工率 is 97.78%, up 0.10 percentage points [2]. - The aluminum product production is 587.37 million tons, up 11.17 million tons. The export of unforged aluminum and aluminum products decreased by 6 million tons to 49 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 61.89 million tons, up 0.29 million tons. The export of aluminum alloy increased by 0.16 million tons to 2.58 million tons [2]. - The national real estate climate index is 93.60, down 0.11. The automobile production is 280.86 million vehicles, up 16.66 million vehicles [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum increased by 0.12 percentage points to 9.61%, and the 40 - day historical volatility decreased by 0.54 percentage points to 8.77%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the main Shanghai aluminum contract decreased by 0.0085 to 8.63%, and the call - put ratio decreased by 0.0107 to 1.21 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In June, the US merchandise and services trade deficit shrank by 16% month - on - month to $60.2 billion, the lowest since September 2023, mainly due to companies cutting purchases after a large - scale import wave at the beginning of the year [2]. - Seven departments including the central bank encourage long - term funds to support digital infrastructure construction. The Passenger Car Association raised the full - year sales forecast for 2025 to 24.35 million vehicles, a 6% year - on - year increase [2]. - The State Council executive meeting proposed consumption and service industry loan subsidy policies. In July, the China Logistics Prosperity Index was 50.5%, down 0.3 percentage points month - on - month [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The alumina market may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and stable demand. The electrolytic aluminum market may be in a stage of stable supply and temporarily weak demand. The cast aluminum alloy market may be in a situation of weak supply and demand [2]. - For all three markets (alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and cast aluminum alloy), the operation suggestion is to conduct light - position oscillating trading, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 20,790 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 3,355 yuan/ton, down 158 yuan; the LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation is 2,652 dollars/ton, up 11 dollars; the closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract is 20,155 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The position of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 327,482 lots, down 3,415 lots; the position of the alumina main contract is 193,941 lots, down 17,703 lots; the position of the cast aluminum alloy main contract is 9,938 lots, unchanged [2]. - **Inventory**: LME aluminum注销仓单 is 9,975 tons, up 2,425 tons; the total inventory of alumina is 44,664 tons, down 15,000 tons; the Shanghai Aluminum SHFE inventory is 108,822 tons, up 5,625 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum is 20,850 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingot nationwide is 20,250 yuan/ton, unchanged; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 3,215 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of cast aluminum alloy is 95 yuan/ton, down 615 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is 60 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the basis of alumina is - 140 yuan/ton, up 163 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Alumina**: The production is 774.93 million tons, up 26.13 million tons; the demand is 696.19 million tons, down 23.83 million tons; the supply - demand balance is 27.14 million tons, up 52.40 million tons [2]. - **Aluminum Scrap**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan is 16,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price in Shandong is 15,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; China's import volume is 155,616.27 tons, down 4,084.65 tons; the export volume is 64.33 tons, down 8.11 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Aluminum Supply - Demand Balance**: The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance is 27.72 million tons, down 1.79 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 44.10 million tons, down 30,781 tons; the total electrolytic aluminum production capacity is 4,520.70 million tons, up 0.50 million tons [2]. - **Production and Export**: The production of aluminum products is 587.37 million tons, up 11.17 million tons; the export volume of unforged aluminum and aluminum products is 49.00 million tons, down 6.00 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy is 2.58 million tons, up 0.16 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Production**: The production of aluminum alloy is 166.90 million tons, up 2.40 million tons; the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 61.89 million tons, up 0.29 million tons; the automobile production is 280.86 million vehicles, up 16.66 million vehicles [2]. - **Indices**: The national real estate prosperity index is 93.60, down 0.11 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - **Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum is 10.31%, up 0.27%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 10.08%, down 0.02%; the implied volatility of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract at - the - money is 11.84%, up 0.0046% [2]. - **Ratio**: The call - put ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options is 1.09, down 0.0309 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The US Treasury Secretary mentioned that the new round of China - US negotiations may discuss China's purchase of oil from Russia and Iran. The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded on tariff issues, hoping that the US and China would promote the stable, healthy and sustainable development of bilateral relations through dialogue [2]. - The Fed Governor emphasized the importance of the Fed's independence in monetary policy and the responsibility to maintain transparency and accountability [2]. - At the end of the second quarter, the balance of RMB real estate loans was 53.33 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 0.4%; the balance of real estate development loans was 13.81 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 0.3%; the balance of individual housing loans was 37.74 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.1% [2]. - Since this year, over 66 million consumers have purchased over 109 million units of 12 categories of home appliances through trade - in programs, over 69 million consumers have purchased over 74 million mobile phones and other digital products, and 82,000 sales stores across the country have carried out trade - in programs for electric bicycles, with a total of 9.056 million new vehicles exchanged [2]. 3.8 Alumina View Summary - **Fundamentals**: The port inventory of domestic bauxite is gradually rising, the domestic supply is relatively sufficient, and the bauxite price is stable. The production willingness of smelters has increased, and the operating capacity has grown. The short - term domestic alumina supply is expected to be relatively sufficient. The high aluminum price provides profits for smelters, and the demand for alumina is supported [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 60 - minute MACD has double lines above the 0 - axis and the green bars are expanding [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Conduct light - position oscillating trading and control the rhythm and risks [2]. 3.9 Electrolytic Aluminum View Summary - **Fundamentals**: The electrolytic aluminum capacity replacement project is advancing steadily, the operating capacity is at a high level, but due to the off - season of consumption, the ingot production has increased and the industrial inventory has accumulated. The downstream consumption is affected by the off - season, and the spot market trading is cautious [2]. - **Options**: The call - put ratio is 1.09, down 0.0309, and the implied volatility has slightly increased, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 60 - minute MACD has double lines above the 0 - axis and the green bars are expanding [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Conduct light - position oscillating trading and control the rhythm and risks [2]. 3.10 Casting Aluminum Alloy View Summary - **Fundamentals**: The supply of scrap aluminum is still tight, and the domestic cast aluminum production is affected by raw material supply and the off - season, with the operating rate declining. The low demand restricts the spot price of cast aluminum, and the industrial inventory is gradually accumulating [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 60 - minute MACD has double lines above the 0 - axis and the green bars are expanding [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Conduct light - position oscillating trading and control the rhythm and risks [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Alumina**: The fundamentals are in a stage of relatively high supply and stable demand. The previous optimistic sentiment in the market has cooled, and it is gradually returning to the reality of fundamentals. It is recommended to lightly short on rallies, controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The fundamentals are in a situation of slightly increasing supply and weak demand. The upside space may be limited due to the off - season and trade uncertainties. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a range - bound manner, controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The fundamentals are in a situation of weak supply and demand. However, due to the tight supply of scrap aluminum, the cost support is strong. The upside space may be limited in the short term. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a range - bound manner, controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Directory **Futures Market** - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 20,415 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the closing price of the Alumina futures main contract is 3,089 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan; the closing price of the Casting Aluminum Alloy main contract is 19,845 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation is 2,575.50 US dollars/ton, down 7.50 US dollars [2]. - **Position and Inventory**: The main contract position of Shanghai Aluminum increases by 74,084 hands to 268,542 hands; the main contract position of Alumina decreases by 15,471 hands to 223,893 hands; the main contract position of Casting Aluminum Alloy decreases by 114 hands to 8,279 hands. The LME aluminum inventory is 423,525 tons, up 6,550 tons; the Shanghai Aluminum SHFE inventory is 103,197 tons, up 8,565 tons [2]. **Spot Market** - **Price**: The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum is 20,570 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum is 20,550 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the Alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 3,150 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of Casting Aluminum Alloy is 155 yuan/ton, down 555 yuan; the basis of Electrolytic Aluminum is 155 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the basis of Alumina is 61 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan [2]. **Upstream Situation** - **Production and Utilization**: The Alumina production is 774.93 million tons, up 26.13 million tons; the Alumina capacity utilization rate is 80.93%, down 1.17 percentage points [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: The demand for Alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) is 720.02 million tons, up 26.32 million tons; the supply - demand balance of Alumina is - 25.26 million tons, down 15.33 million tons [2]. **Industry Situation** - **Supply and Inventory**: The electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 44.80 million tons, up 3.60 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum total capacity is 4,520.70 million tons, up 0.50 million tons [2]. - **Production and Trade**: The electrolytic aluminum production is stable with a slight increase; the aluminum products production is 587.37 million tons, up 11.17 million tons; the export of unforged aluminum and aluminum products is 48.90 million tons, down 6.10 million tons [2]. **Downstream and Application** - **Production**: The aluminum alloy production is 166.90 million tons, up 2.40 million tons; the automobile production is 280.86 million vehicles, up 16.66 million vehicles [2]. - **Indicator**: The National Housing Prosperity Index is 93.60, down 0.11 [2]. **Option Situation** - **Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum is 8.74%, down 0.08 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum is 9.28%, down 0.06 percentage points [2]. - **Ratio**: The put - call ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options is 1.11, down 0.0362 [2]. **Industry News** - **Domestic**: From July 1 - 13, the retail sales of the national passenger car market are 57.1 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7% and a month - on - month decrease of 5%; the retail sales of the new energy passenger car market are 33.2 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 26% and a month - on - month decrease of 4% [2]. - **International**: The US PPI in June is flat month - on - month, and the core PPI is also flat, with the smallest year - on - year increase since the end of 2023 [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina market is in a stage of relatively high supply and stable demand, with the previous optimistic sentiment on the disk gradually calming down and the market returning to the fundamental reality. The electrolytic aluminum market has a situation of slightly increasing supply and weak demand, and its upward space may be limited due to the off - season and trade uncertainties. The casting aluminum alloy market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, but the cost support logic is relatively strong, and its upward space in the short term may be limited [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20,415 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 3,145 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan. The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation was 2,602 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars. The closing price of the casting aluminum alloy main contract was 19,805 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan [2] - The main contract positions of Shanghai Aluminum decreased by 32,657 hands, and those of alumina decreased by 10,712 hands. The main contract positions of casting aluminum alloy decreased by 558 hands [2] - LME aluminum inventories increased by 4,550 tons to 400,275 tons, and Shanghai Aluminum's SHFE inventories increased by 8,565 tons to 103,197 tons. The total alumina inventory decreased by 5,347 tons to 59,664 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 20,470 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 20,000 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous AOO aluminum was 20,760 yuan/ton, down 310 yuan [2] - The alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 3,140 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The basis of casting aluminum alloy, electrolytic aluminum, and alumina all weakened [2] Upstream Situation - The alumina production in the current month was 748.80 million tons, an increase of 16.50 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 720.02 million tons, an increase of 26.32 million tons. The supply - demand balance of alumina was - 25.26 million tons, a decrease of 15.33 million tons [2] - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap was 16,050 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; in Shandong metal scrap, it was 15,700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [2] - The export volume of alumina was 21.00 million tons, a decrease of 5.00 million tons; the import volume was 6.75 million tons, an increase of 5.68 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 41.20 million tons, a decrease of 1.20 million tons; the total electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 4,520.70 million tons, an increase of 0.50 million tons [2] - The primary aluminum import volume was 223,095.59 tons, a decrease of 27,381.21 tons; the export volume was 32,094.07 tons, an increase of 18,421.29 tons [2] - The aluminum product production was 576.20 million tons, a decrease of 0.20%; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 48.90 million tons, a decrease of 6.10 million tons [2] Downstream and Application - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.89 million tons, an increase of 0.29 million tons; the aluminum alloy production was 164.50 million tons, an increase of 11.70 million tons [2] - The automobile production was 264.20 million vehicles, an increase of 3.80 million vehicles. The National Housing Prosperity Index was 93.72, a decrease of 0.13 [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum increased by 1.40% to 9.69%, and the 40 - day historical volatility increased by 0.68% to 9.35%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money IV of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract decreased slightly [2] Industry News - The global trade pattern is at a critical turning point. The US tariff policy has promoted the global trade system to develop towards true diversification. The influence of the US is gradually weakening, and developing countries and emerging economies are becoming new growth points [2] - The proportion of new energy vehicles in China is expected to exceed 50% this year, and the sales volume is expected to reach 16 million [2] Alumina Viewpoint Summary - The domestic bauxite supply is sufficient, and the alumina supply is relatively abundant. The demand for alumina from electrolytic aluminum is stable. The market is gradually returning to the fundamental reality. It is recommended to trade with a light position and control risks [2] Electrolytic Aluminum Viewpoint Summary - The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is stable with a slight increase, the demand is weak due to the off - season, and the upward space is limited. It is recommended to trade with a light position and control risks [2] Casting Aluminum Alloy Viewpoint Summary - The supply and demand of casting aluminum alloy are both weak, but the cost support is strong. The market is in a game between cost support and weak fundamentals, and the upward space in the short term is limited. It is recommended to trade with a light position and control risks [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina market is in a stage of relatively sufficient supply and stable demand, with cost support for spot prices. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile manner [2]. - The Shanghai aluminum market is in a situation of relatively stable supply, seasonal decline in demand, and increasing inventory. Due to the support of the macro - environment, the industry outlook remains positive. Option market sentiment is bullish [2]. - The cast aluminum alloy market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with seasonal inventory accumulation. The long - term industry outlook and cost support may provide some support for prices. It is also recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile manner [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,700 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 3,208 yuan/ton, up 78 yuan. The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quote was 2,602 US dollars/ton, up 25 US dollars [2]. - The main contract positions of Shanghai aluminum increased by 5,534 hands to 255,633 hands, while those of alumina decreased by 4,110 hands to 244,546 hands. The positions of the cast aluminum alloy main contract increased by 242 hands to 8,813 hands [2]. - The LME aluminum inventory increased by 6,450 tons to 390,800 tons, and the Shanghai aluminum inventory on the previous 20 net positions increased by 10,629 hands to 27,332 hands. The Shanghai - London ratio was 7.96, down 0.01 [2]. Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum price was 20,820 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 3,120 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 20,100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2]. - The basis of cast aluminum alloy decreased by 550 yuan to 160 yuan/ton, and the basis of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 25 yuan to 120 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium and discount decreased by 10 yuan to - 60 yuan/ton, and the LME aluminum premium and discount increased by 2.77 US dollars to - 0.60 US dollars/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The alumina production in the month was 748.80 million tons, up 16.50 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) in the month was 720.02 million tons, up 26.32 million tons. The supply - demand balance of alumina was - 25.26 million tons, down 15.33 million tons [2]. - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap increased by 50 yuan to 16,250 yuan/ton, and that in Shandong metal scrap increased by 50 yuan to 15,800 yuan/ton. China's import volume of aluminum scrap decreased by 30,651.64 tons to 159,700.92 tons, and the export volume increased by 35.90 tons to 72.44 tons [2]. - The export volume of alumina decreased by 5 million tons to 21 million tons, and the import volume increased by 5.68 million tons to 6.75 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased by 0.50 million tons to 4,520.70 million tons, and the production capacity utilization rate was 97.68%, up 0.03 percentage points. The production of aluminum products decreased by 0.20 million tons to 576.20 million tons, and the export volume of unforged aluminum and aluminum products increased by 3 million tons to 55 million tons [2]. - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 0.29 million tons to 61.89 million tons, and the export volume of aluminum alloy increased by 0.76 million tons to 2.42 million tons [2]. Downstream and Application - The built - in production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 1.10 million tons to 126 million tons, and the national real estate climate index was 93.72, down 0.13 [2]. - The production of aluminum alloy increased by 11.70 million tons to 164.50 million tons, and the production of automobiles increased by 3.80 million vehicles to 264.20 million vehicles [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum increased by 0.22 percentage points to 8.30%, and the 40 - day historical volatility decreased by 0.34 percentage points to 8.76%. The implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main contract at - the - money IV increased by 0.0049 percentage points to 8.77%, and the put - call ratio was 1.11, down 0.0425 [2]. Industry News - The Fed's June meeting minutes showed differences among officials on interest - rate prospects. Trump said Sino - US relations had improved [2]. - The State Council issued new employment - stabilization support policies. The NDRC said China's economy had an average annual growth rate of 5.5% from 2021 to 2024, with domestic demand contributing 86.4% on average [2]. - In June, the CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year and decreased by 0.1% month - on - month; the PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month [2]. - The relationship between multinational enterprises and the Chinese market has shifted to "two - way empowerment", and the globalization of Chinese new - energy vehicles is an opportunity to build global brands [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Alumina**: The alumina market is in a stage of relatively high supply and stable demand. The price of bauxite provides some cost support. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows an upward - moving trend. It is recommended to conduct light - position trading and control risks [2]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum market has relatively stable supply. Short - term demand is affected by the off - season, but long - term demand is expected to improve. The option market sentiment is bullish. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows a potential downward trend. It is suggested to conduct light - position short - term long trading at low prices and control risks [2]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The cast aluminum alloy market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with continuous inventory accumulation. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows a weakening upward trend. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trading at low prices and control risks [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Futures Market** - **Aluminum Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 20,635 yuan/ton, with a flat change. The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quote is 2,602 dollars/ton, up 4.5 dollars. The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.93, down 0.01 [2]. - **Alumina Futures**: The closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 3,071 yuan/ton, up 126 yuan. The main contract position decreased by 4,814 hands [2]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy Futures**: The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract is 19,885 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan. The main contract position increased by 391 hands [2]. **Spot Market** - **Aluminum Spot**: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum is 20,810 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The Yangtze River Non - ferrous market AOO aluminum price is 20,720 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan. The basis of electrolytic aluminum is 175 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. - **Alumina Spot**: The spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 3,080 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of alumina is 9 yuan/ton, down 126 yuan [2]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy Spot**: The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots in the country is 20,100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of cast aluminum alloy is 215 yuan/ton, down 495 yuan [2]. **Upstream Situation** - **Alumina**: The production volume is 748.80 million tons, up 16.50 million tons. The demand is 720.02 million tons, up 26.32 million tons. The supply - demand balance is - 25.26 million tons, down 15.33 million tons. The import volume is 6.75 million tons, up 5.68 million tons, and the export volume is 21.00 million tons, down 5.00 million tons [2]. - **Aluminum Scrap**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan is 16,350 yuan/ton, unchanged. China's import volume of aluminum scrap is 159,700.92 tons, down 30,651.64 tons, and the export volume is 72.44 tons, up 35.90 tons [2]. **Industry Situation** - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The total production capacity is 4,520.20 million tons, up 2.00 million tons. The production volume is not mentioned separately. The import volume is 223,095.59 tons, down 27,381.21 tons, and the export volume is 32,094.07 tons, up 18,421.29 tons. The social inventory is 42.20 million tons, down 0.20 million tons [2]. - **Aluminum Products**: The production volume is 576.20 million tons, down 0.20 million tons. The export volume of un - wrought aluminum and aluminum products is 55.00 million tons, up 3.00 million tons [2]. **Downstream and Application** - **Automobile**: The production volume is 264.20 million vehicles, up 3.80 million vehicles [2]. - **Real Estate**: The national real estate prosperity index is 93.72, down 0.13 [2]. **Option Situation** The purchase - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options is 1.25, up 0.0183 compared with the previous period. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of Shanghai aluminum main contract is 9.69%, up 0.0056 [2]. **Industry News** - China's light industry has achieved growth in the first five months of this year. The manufacturing PMI in June has rebounded [2]. - Automobile sales in June showed different trends among different brands [2]. - The Fed Chairman mentioned the possibility of interest - rate cuts, and the US manufacturing PMI in June was still in the contraction range [2].