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1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, the market presents a situation of relatively high supply and stable demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - For electrolytic aluminum, the supply is stable while the demand weakens slightly due to the off - season. It is advisable to conduct light - position short - long trading at low prices and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the supply is contracting and the demand is slightly decreasing. It is suggested to conduct light - position short - long trading at low prices and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Aluminum - related Contracts**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 21,455 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,720 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan. The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quote was 2,801 dollars/ton, down 12 dollars. The LME aluminum inventory was 543,725 tons, down 2,225 tons. The Shanghai - London ratio was 7.66, up 0.03 [2]. - **Other Aluminum Products**: The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 20,695 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The main - second - contract spread of cast aluminum alloy was - 110 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum price was 21,400 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,770 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 21,350 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of cast aluminum alloy was 655 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 55 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The basis of alumina was 50 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Raw Materials**: The average price of crushed primary aluminum in Foshan metal scrap was 16,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price in Shandong metal scrap was 16,550 yuan/ton, unchanged. China's import volume of aluminum scrap was 158,360.01 tons, up 2,945.61 tons; the export volume was 32.46 tons, down 36.08 tons [2]. - **Alumina**: The alumina production was 786.50 million tons, down 13.40 million tons; the demand for alumina in the electrolytic aluminum part was 730.23 million tons, up 25.92 million tons. The export volume of alumina was 18.00 million tons, down 7.00 million tons; the import volume was 18.93 million tons, up 12.93 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The import volume of primary aluminum was 248,261.37 tons, up 4,462 tons; the export volume was 24,573.56 tons, down 4,396.36 tons. The electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 4,523.20 million tons, unchanged; the operating rate was 98.24%, down 0.12% [2]. - **Aluminum Products**: The aluminum product output was 569.40 million tons, down 20.60 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 50.00 million tons, down 2.00 million tons. The output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 60.83 million tons, down 4.82 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy was 3.09 million tons, up 0.74 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Automobile**: The automobile production was 327.90 million vehicles, up 5.25 million vehicles [2]. - **Real Estate**: The National Housing Prosperity Index was 92.43, down 0.34 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - **Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 11.23%, down 0.26%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 10.35%, down 0.04%. The implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main - contract at - the - money IV was 9.02%, down 0.0079% [2]. - **Ratio**: The call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options was 1.63, up 0.1021 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - **Data and Energy**: The National Data Bureau launched the first batch of 12 state - owned enterprise data resource development and utilization pilots. In October, the national power market trading volume was 563.8 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 15.6% [2]. - **Automobile Market**: In October, European car sales increased by 4.9% year - on - year to 1.09 million vehicles. Tesla's new car registrations decreased by 48%, BYD's increased by 195%, SAIC Group's increased by 56%, and Toyota's decreased by 10.8% [2]. - **Economic News**: A Fed governor called for significant interest rate cuts. US PPI and retail sales data showed inflation resurgence and a slowdown in consumption growth. The China - US presidential call had a positive atmosphere [2].

Market Overview - The A-share market saw a majority of indices decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.07% closing at 4000.14 points, the Shenzhen Component down 0.36% at 13240.62 points, the Sci-Tech 50 down 0.58% at 1379.45 points, and the ChiNext Index down 0.39% at 3122.03 points [1][10] - Overall, there were 1756 stocks that rose and 3561 that fell, with a total market turnover of 19450 billion yuan, a decrease of 485 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the top gainers included household appliances (up 1.22%), comprehensive (up 1.05%), textile and apparel (up 0.87%), petroleum and petrochemicals (up 0.84%), and pharmaceutical and biological (up 0.61%) [1] - The leading decliners were in the sectors of electric equipment (down 2.10%), machinery equipment (down 1.23%), computers (down 1.04%), national defense and military industry (down 0.87%), and automobiles (down 0.81%) [1] Concept Sector Performance - The concept sectors with the highest gains included insurance selection, lithium battery electrolyte, blood products, stem cells, SPD, in vitro diagnostics, genetic testing, white household appliances selection, aluminum industry, three-child policy, industrial metals selection, synthetic biology, satellite internet, weight loss drugs, and central enterprise banks [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The alumina market may face slightly reduced supply and a steady increase in demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum market may have stable supply and slightly reduced demand, with a small accumulation of industrial inventory. It is suggested to conduct light - position oscillating trades and control trading risks [2]. - The casting aluminum alloy market may experience a slowdown in the growth rate of supply and demand, with an accumulation of industrial inventory. Light - position oscillating trades are recommended, along with risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Directory a. Futures Market - **Price Movements**: The closing prices of the main contracts of Shanghai aluminum, alumina, and casting aluminum alloy decreased, while the LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation increased. The spot prices of Shanghai - colored A00 aluminum and Yangtze River - colored AOO aluminum increased, and the alumina spot price also rose [2]. - **Inventory Changes**: The LME aluminum inventory decreased, while the inventory of alumina increased. The Shanghai aluminum inventory and the inventory of casting aluminum alloy showed different changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [2]. - **Position Changes**: The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum increased, and the position of the main contract of casting aluminum alloy also increased, while the position of the main contract of alumina decreased [2]. b. Upstream Situation - **Production and Demand**: The alumina production increased, but the demand decreased. The import of aluminum scrap decreased, while the export increased. The export of alumina increased, and the import decreased [2]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of alumina improved, and the WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance also showed an improvement trend [2]. c. Industry Situation - **Production and Capacity**: The production of primary aluminum, aluminum products, and some aluminum - related products changed. The total capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained stable, and the production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots also remained unchanged [2]. - **Inventory and Export**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased, and the export of some aluminum products decreased [2]. d. Downstream and Application - **Production and Index**: The production of automobiles increased, while the national real - estate prosperity index decreased. The production of some aluminum - related products in the downstream also changed [2]. e. Option Situation - **Volatility and Ratio**: The historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum increased, the implied volatility of the main at - the - money option of Shanghai aluminum decreased slightly, and the option purchase - put ratio increased slightly [2]. f. Industry News - **Fed's Stance**: Fed Governor Milan supports further interest rate cuts, and San Francisco Fed President Daly suggests discussing further rate cuts [2]. - **Automobile Industry**: In October, the production and retail of passenger cars and new - energy vehicles showed different growth trends. From January to October, there were also significant growth rates in the production and retail of these vehicles [2]. - **Policy**: The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued a document on new - energy development and utilization [2].

Core Insights - In November, certain low-priced, high-recognition stocks have shown significant performance, with "Ma" stocks averaging a nearly 2% increase, surpassing the Shanghai Composite Index's performance during the same period, with multiple stocks rising over 10% [1] Group 1: Stock Characteristics - The analysis identifies 16 potential strong stocks for the year-end, focusing on those priced between 5 to 15 yuan per share and with a market capitalization below 5 billion yuan [1] - These stocks are predicted to have a net profit growth rate exceeding 30% for both 2025 and 2026, according to institutional consensus [1] - The companies involved are engaged in trending sectors such as quantum technology, AI, and lithium batteries [1] Group 2: Potential Stocks Summary - The table lists various stocks with their latest closing prices, market values, and projected net profit growth rates for 2025 and 2026, along with their associated hot concepts [2] - For instance, "Aoto Electronics" (002587) has a closing price of 6.42 yuan and a market value of 4.183 billion yuan, with a projected net profit growth of 193.43% for 2025 and 111.11% for 2026, focusing on Douyin Doubao [2] - "Liujin Technology" (920021) shows a closing price of 6.87 yuan and a market value of 2.123 billion yuan, with a projected net profit growth of 203.78% for 2025 and 96.00% for 2026, involved in 5G applications [2]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.22% to close at 3922.41 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index also increasing by 0.22% to 13025.45 points. However, the Sci-Tech 50 Index fell by 0.30% to 1401.26 points, while the ChiNext Index saw a slight increase of 0.09% to 3062.16 points. Overall, 2991 stocks rose, 2301 fell, and 143 remained unchanged, with a total trading volume of 16439 billion yuan, a decrease of 239.47 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1][2]. Industry Performance - Among the primary industries, coal, oil and petrochemicals, social services, non-ferrous metals, non-bank financials, and media sectors experienced the highest gains. Conversely, the telecommunications, real estate, building materials, electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and national defense industries faced the most significant declines [1][2]. Sector Highlights - The leading sectors in terms of growth included ice and snow tourism, lithium mining, central enterprise coal, near-term new stocks, short drama games, lithium extraction from salt lakes, quantum technology, selected chemical fibers, cybersecurity, operating systems, cross-strait integration, selected coal mining, Kimi, aluminum industry, and lithium battery electrolyte sectors [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The ore price is still in a game stage. Domestic mines in northern China are affected by rainfall, and alumina plants are facing losses, so it is difficult to give a premium to the ore end. The rainy season in Guinea is coming to an end, but the port arrival volume has not recovered, the port inventory has slightly declined, and the price of imported ore is relatively firm. Currently, alumina plants have not triggered production cuts. Later, attention should be paid to the fluctuation of imported ore prices. If the ore price does not fall, the situation of cash - flow losses cannot be maintained for a long time, and enterprises in Henan with insufficient domestic ore supply will face greater difficulties. From the perspective of Henan, there is no negative impact on the consumption end. Although the overall operating rate has declined year - on - year, the output has increased year - on - year, and the growth rate is higher than the national average. Affected by capacity expansion, local processing enterprises may face problems such as insufficient orders, low operating rates, and low processing fees, but in actual production, they have not shown cash - flow losses through methods such as increasing the amount of scrap added and increasing scale to reduce costs, and the overall output is still guaranteed [2]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Henan Alumina in Operation with Imported Ore Capacity Faces Pressure - Henan's alumina built - in capacity is 13.07 million tons, operating capacity is 8.9 million tons, with an operating rate of 68%, the lowest in the country where the national average is 85.6%. There are currently only 5 alumina factories in production, all of which are large - scale group enterprises [9]. - The production cost in Henan is also the highest in the country. The current cash cost of producing with domestic ore is 2,940 yuan/ton, and with imported ore is 3,100 yuan/ton. According to the current market price, domestic ore production breaks even, while imported ore production faces cash - flow losses [9]. - The reason why production cuts have not been triggered is not that the price is too low, but mainly because the loss period is not long enough. Calculated according to the cash cost and the alumina website quotation, the production with imported ore in Henan started to lose money in mid - to - early September, and the three - network average price of the long - term agreement in September is 3,100 yuan/ton. From the factory's perspective, cash losses will start in October, so production cuts have not been triggered at present [9]. - Alumina winter storage has no impact on Henan. The monthly alumina output in Henan is 650,000 tons, while the monthly electrolytic aluminum output is only 150,000 tons. The local alumina supply is sufficient and the transportation distance is short. Even in case of extreme weather in winter, the impact is extremely limited. Moreover, the relocation of electrolytic aluminum production capacity in Henan is the mainstream trend [10]. 2. Research on Enterprises in Henan's Alumina Industry - Enterprise 1: A Henan alumina plant with a built - in capacity of 2.6 million tons. It has 4 roasting furnaces, with 3 in operation at present, with a daily output of 1,800 tons. The annual sales of non - metallurgical alumina and aluminum hydroxide reach 1.7 million tons. It uses more than 100,000 tons of domestic ore per month, accounting for about 25%, which is a relatively low level in Henan. The bauxite inventory is 1.5 months. There is no cash - flow loss in September, and the high cost is mainly due to the high - priced ore in the previous period in the current bauxite inventory [11]. - Enterprise 2: A Henan alumina plant with a built - in capacity of 1.4 million tons. It shut down a 400,000 - ton imported ore production line in the first half of the year and has no plan to resume production. Currently, all 1 million tons use local domestic ore from its own mines, and the probability of further shutdown is very low. It may reduce production due to environmental protection factors such as natural gas in winter, but the impact is limited. Lithium extraction has been carried out in the production process, with an annual output of more than 1,000 tons of lithium, and the cost is higher than that of lithium extraction from salt lakes [11]. - Enterprise 3: A Henan electrolytic aluminum plant with a built - in capacity of 360,000 tons operating at full capacity. 70,000 tons of production capacity has been transferred to Ningxia, and the remaining capacity will also be transferred later. It sells 100% of its products through long - term agreements. The alumina raw material inventory is 5 days, but the tailings are not very useful, and the actual available inventory is 2 days. It does not carry out winter storage, and the nearest alumina plant is only 20 kilometers away, so it can ensure supply even in case of extreme weather [11]. 3. Henan's Processing Enterprises' Dilemma Does Not Equal Poor Consumption - The supply of aluminum elements and the supply of aluminum processed products are in two different dimensions. Since September, it has entered the traditional seasonal consumption peak season. From the perspective of aluminum elements, the supply of electrolytic aluminum has increased by 1.14% year - on - year, the daily output has increased by 0.08% month - on - month, and the proportion of molten aluminum has increased by 2.54% year - on - year and 1.23% month - on - month, which is the main reason for the decline in the operating rate and processing fees felt by processing plants [24]. - Aluminum rods and aluminum strips and foils are the most mainstream primary processed products, accounting for a large proportion of aluminum consumption. As of now, the output of aluminum rods in 2025 is about 13.65 million tons, with a year - on - year growth rate of 5.8%. The cumulative output of aluminum strips and foils from January to August is 9.637 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.2%. The cumulative output of aluminum strips and foils in Henan from January to August is 4.023 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year growth of 2.9%, and the year - on - year growth rate in August is 3.7% [24]. - Henan is a concentrated area for aluminum strip production in China, accounting for 39% of the national output. Currently, the operating rate of local enterprises is generally lower than in previous years, and enterprise profitability is difficult. However, this is not due to poor consumption. The output growth rate of aluminum strips and foils in Henan has long been higher than the national average, but the processing fees need to compete with integrated electrolytic aluminum processing plants, resulting in a poor feeling for Henan's processing plants [24]. 4. Research on Henan's Aluminum Processing Enterprises - Enterprise 3: An aluminum strip processing enterprise. It purchases 40% of the molten aluminum from local aluminum plants at a discount of 120 yuan/ton to the Yangtze River price, and the remaining 60% is aluminum ingots for easy adjustment of production. Its built - in capacity is 70,000 - 80,000 tons, and the current operating rate is over 60%, which has increased compared with the off - season, but was 100% in the same period last year. The overall operating rate of aluminum strip and foil enterprises in Gongyi is 50% - 60%, which is difficult for factories to make a profit. The discount for molten aluminum procurement has been narrowing year by year, and electrolytic aluminum plants are in a strong position in sales. If aluminum ingots are remelted, about 40 cubic meters of natural gas are needed, and it is rare for the discount of aluminum ingot procurement in Gongyi to exceed 200 yuan/ton. There are also losses in remelting, and the electrolyte loss for purchasing molten aluminum is about 150 yuan/ton. 20% of the downstream consumption is exported through traders, and the normal finished product inventory is 1,000 tons. If the inventory exceeds the normal level, the operating rate will be considered to be reduced [25]. - Enterprise 2: An aluminum rod processing enterprise. It purchases 100% of the molten aluminum from surrounding electrolytic aluminum plants at a discount of 120 yuan/ton to the Yangtze River price. Previously, the discount could reach 200 yuan/ton. Due to long - term agreements, it cannot adjust production and operates at 100% throughout the year. The electrolyte loss is 0.5%, and the total loss in the production process is 1.2%. The maximum annual loss is 100 - 200 yuan/ton, and currently it is at the break - even point. Since there are no costs such as bank interest, depreciation, and land, it still makes a profit. There were originally 4 aluminum rod processing enterprises in the park, and now only this one remains. It needs to compete with integrated electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rod plants in Inner Mongolia and Shandong, so the competition is difficult. Local downstream processing enterprises often expand production through loans to reduce costs, but the processing profit has been declining year by year, and the method of blind expansion is unsustainable [26]. 5. Summary Alumina - Henan's alumina built - in capacity is 13.07 million tons, operating capacity is 8.9 million tons, with an operating rate of 68%, the lowest in the country where the national average is 85.6% [37]. - The production cost in Henan is also the highest in the country. The current cash cost of producing with domestic ore is 2,940 yuan/ton, and with imported ore is 3,100 yuan/ton. According to the current market price, domestic ore production breaks even, while imported ore production faces cash - flow losses [37]. - The three - network average price of the long - term agreement in September is 3,100 yuan/ton. From the factory's perspective, cash losses will start in October, so production cuts have not been triggered at present [37]. Downstream Consumption - Since September, it has entered the traditional seasonal consumption peak season. From the perspective of aluminum elements, the supply of electrolytic aluminum has increased by 1.14% year - on - year, the daily output has increased by 0.08% month - on - month, and the proportion of molten aluminum has increased by 2.54% year - on - year and 1.23% month - on - month, which is the main reason for the decline in the operating rate and processing fees felt by processing plants [38]. - Henan is a concentrated area for aluminum strip production in China, accounting for 39% of the national output. Currently, the operating rate of local enterprises is generally lower than in previous years, and the overall operating rate is about 60%. However, the cumulative output of aluminum strips and foils from January to August is 4.023 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year growth of 2.9%, and the year - on - year growth rate in August is 3.7% [38].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Alumina's fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and stable demand, suggesting light - position short - term long trades at low prices [2]. - Electrolytic aluminum's fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and gradually recovering demand, with positive consumption expectations and a possible inventory inflection point, recommending light - position bullish trading [2]. - Cast aluminum's fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly decreasing supply and slowly recovering demand, suggesting light - position range - bound trading [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Aluminum - related Contracts**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20,915 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,945 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan. The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quote was 2,622 dollars/ton, down 5.5 dollars [2]. - **Contract Spreads and Positions**: The main - second - consecutive contract spread of Shanghai Aluminum was 5 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; that of alumina was - 17 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan. The main contract positions of Shanghai Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy were 204,582 hands, 273,311 hands, and 8,251 hands respectively, with changes of + 8142 hands, - 2825 hands, and + 272 hands [2]. - **Inventories**: LME aluminum inventories remained unchanged at 485,275 tons; Shanghai Aluminum's SHFE inventory was 124,078 tons, down 1518 tons; alumina's total inventory was 130,104 tons, up 10,892 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 20,860 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 3,005 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 20,950 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of cast aluminum alloy was 475 yuan/ton, down 235 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 55 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the basis of alumina was 60 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Alumina Production and Demand**: Alumina production was 756.49 million tons, down 18.44 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 722.07 million tons, up 25.88 million tons. The supply - demand balance of alumina was 16.32 million tons, down 10.82 million tons [2]. - **Aluminum Scrap Trade**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan and Shandong metal scrap markets increased. China's import and export quantities of aluminum scrap and chips both increased [2]. - **Alumina Trade**: Alumina exports were 23 million tons, up 6 million tons; imports were 12.59 million tons, up 2.47 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Aluminum Supply and Demand Balance**: The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance was 18.31 million tons, down 9.41 million tons. The import quantity of primary aluminum was 248,198.71 tons, down; the export quantity was 40,987.71 tons, up [2]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 57.60 million tons, up 55,884.22 tons; the total production capacity was 4,523.20 million tons, up 0.40 million tons. The production of electrolytic aluminum was 548.37 million tons, down 39 million tons [2]. - **Aluminum Products**: The production of aluminum products was 548.37 million tons, down 39 million tons; the export of unforged aluminum and aluminum products was 53.40 million tons, down 0.60 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Aluminum Alloy Production**: The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.32 million tons, up 0.43 million tons; the production of aluminum alloy was 153.60 million tons, down 13.30 million tons [2]. - **Related Industries**: The national real estate prosperity index was 93.34, down 0.25; automobile production was 251.02 million vehicles, down 29.84 million vehicles [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day and 40 - day historical volatilities of Shanghai Aluminum increased. The put - call ratio was 1.13, up 0.047, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market, and the implied volatility decreased slightly [2] 3.7 Industry News - US August PPI inflation unexpectedly declined, providing data support for the Fed to cut interest rates [2]. - China's August CPI was flat month - on - month and down 0.4% year - on - year, while PPI's decline narrowed [2]. - The government will use proactive fiscal policies to support employment, foreign trade, and economic development [2]

Report Overview - The report is an aluminum industry daily report dated September 2, 2025 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The aluminum industry presents different trends across various segments. Alumina may see a small increase in supply and stable demand, with an expected improvement as the traditional peak season approaches. Shanghai aluminum is likely to have a stable and slightly increasing supply and gradually rising demand, with a positive industry outlook. Cast aluminum may experience a slight reduction in supply and rising demand [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 20,720 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 3,022 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan. The main - second - consecutive contract spread of Shanghai aluminum is 30 yuan/ton, unchanged; that of alumina is -23 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan. The main contract positions of Shanghai aluminum and alumina both decreased [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Nonferrous Network A00 aluminum price is 20,710 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Nonferrous is 3,135 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The basis of cast aluminum alloy weakened, while that of electrolytic aluminum strengthened [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national alumina production in the month is 756.49 million tons, down 18.44 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is 84.75%, up 0.45%. The demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) is 722.07 million tons, up 25.88 million tons. The supply - demand balance of alumina decreased by 10.82 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The total electrolytic aluminum production capacity is 4,523.20 million tons, up 2.50 million tons, and the operating rate is 97.78%, up 0.10%. The production of aluminum products is 548.37 million tons, down 39.00 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 62.32 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The production of aluminum alloy is 153.60 million tons, down 13.30 million tons. The national real - estate climate index is 93.34, down 0.25 [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum for 20 days is 6.12%, up 0.10%; for 40 days is 7.89%, down 0.07%. The implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main contract at - the - money IV increased slightly, and the call - put ratio increased [2] 3.7 Industry News - The eurozone's August manufacturing PMI reached a three - year high; the personal consumption loan fiscal subsidy policy was implemented; the ECB said the inflation target was achieved; new energy vehicle brands had good August sales; China announced plans at the SCO summit [2] 3.8 Alumina View - The alumina main contract shows a volatile trend with reduced positions, spot premium, and weakening basis. The supply of bauxite is expected to decline, but domestic alumina supply may increase slightly and stably due to sufficient port inventories and good smelter profits. Demand is stable. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile manner [2] 3.9 Shanghai Aluminum View - The Shanghai aluminum main contract rebounded slightly with reduced positions, spot discount, and strengthening basis. The supply of alumina is relatively loose, and the electrolytic aluminum smelting profit is good. The domestic supply is expected to increase slightly and stably, and demand is expected to rise. The option market sentiment is bullish. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile manner [2] 3.10 Cast Aluminum Alloy View - The cast aluminum main contract first rose and then fell with reduced positions, spot premium, and weakening basis. High raw material costs support prices but erode profits, leading to potential production cuts. Demand is expected to pick up with the peak season and government subsidies. It is recommended to short at high levels with a light position [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina fundamentals may be in a stage where supply growth slows down and demand remains relatively stable, with industrial expectations gradually improving under policy guidance. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum fundamentals may be in a stage where supply remains at a high level but the growth rate slows down, and demand is weak due to the off - season. The long - term expectation is still positive after policy - guided optimization. Option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The cast aluminum fundamentals may be in a stage where supply slightly converges and demand weakens in the off - season. The operation suggestion is to conduct oscillating trades with a light position, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai aluminum contract is 20,650 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the closing price of the main alumina futures contract is 3,241 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan. The main contract positions of Shanghai aluminum and alumina decreased by 1008 and 6436 hands respectively. LME aluminum cancelled warrants increased by 1575 tons, and LME aluminum inventory increased by 2300 tons. The Shanghai - London ratio is 8.05, up 0.05 [2]. - The closing price of the main cast aluminum alloy contract is 20,075 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan, and its main contract position increased by 38 hands [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum price is 20,630 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum price is 20,560 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan. The alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 3,220 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of cast aluminum alloy decreased by 635 yuan to 75 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum increased by 20 yuan to - 20 yuan. The Shanghai Wuma aluminum premium and discount is - 40 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the LME aluminum premium and discount is 0.12 dollars/ton, up 0.5 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national alumina开工率 is 84.01%, up 1.52 percentage points; the alumina production is 774.93 million tons, up 26.13 million tons. The demand for alumina in the electrolytic aluminum part decreased by 23.83 million tons to 696.19 million tons [2]. - The import of alumina increased by 3.38 million tons to 10.13 million tons, and the export decreased by 4 million tons to 17 million tons. The average price of broken primary aluminum in Foshan and Shandong metal scrap markets remained unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 1 million tons to 49.70 million tons. The electrolytic aluminum total production capacity is 4,523.20 million tons, up 2.50 million tons, and the electrolytic aluminum开工率 is 97.78%, up 0.10 percentage points [2]. - The aluminum product production is 587.37 million tons, up 11.17 million tons. The export of unforged aluminum and aluminum products decreased by 6 million tons to 49 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 61.89 million tons, up 0.29 million tons. The export of aluminum alloy increased by 0.16 million tons to 2.58 million tons [2]. - The national real estate climate index is 93.60, down 0.11. The automobile production is 280.86 million vehicles, up 16.66 million vehicles [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum increased by 0.12 percentage points to 9.61%, and the 40 - day historical volatility decreased by 0.54 percentage points to 8.77%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the main Shanghai aluminum contract decreased by 0.0085 to 8.63%, and the call - put ratio decreased by 0.0107 to 1.21 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In June, the US merchandise and services trade deficit shrank by 16% month - on - month to $60.2 billion, the lowest since September 2023, mainly due to companies cutting purchases after a large - scale import wave at the beginning of the year [2]. - Seven departments including the central bank encourage long - term funds to support digital infrastructure construction. The Passenger Car Association raised the full - year sales forecast for 2025 to 24.35 million vehicles, a 6% year - on - year increase [2]. - The State Council executive meeting proposed consumption and service industry loan subsidy policies. In July, the China Logistics Prosperity Index was 50.5%, down 0.3 percentage points month - on - month [2].