Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders has shown steady growth, with a year-on-year increase of 0.78% for the first three quarters of 2025, and a quarterly growth of 1.15% in Q3. Revenue has decreased by 3.18% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed compared to the first half of the year [5] - The bank's loan and advance total increased by 1.60% compared to the end of the previous year, with a 4.17% increase in corporate loans, while personal loans decreased by 1.89% [5] - Asset quality has improved marginally, with a non-performing loan ratio remaining low at 0.97%, and the provision coverage ratio increased by 3.55 percentage points to 340.10% [5] - The report forecasts revenue for 2025-2027 to be 264.80 billion, 276.00 billion, and 293.31 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -0.60%, 4.23%, and 6.27% respectively. Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 124.84 billion, 126.93 billion, and 132.31 billion yuan, with growth rates of 1.59%, 1.68%, and 4.24% respectively [5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's revenue decreased by 3.18%, a slight improvement from the 3.4% decline in the first half of the year. The net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 0.78% year-on-year, with Q3 showing a 1.15% increase [5] - Interest income decreased by 5.05% year-on-year, but the decline was less severe than in the first half of the year due to effective cost management [5] Loan and Deposit Growth - As of the end of Q3 2025, the total loans and advances increased by 1.60% compared to the end of the previous year, with corporate loans up by 4.17% and personal loans down by 1.89% [5] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 0.97%, and the proportion of special mention loans increased by 4 basis points to 1.81% [5] - The provision coverage ratio improved to 340.10%, reversing a declining trend observed since September 2023 [5] Earnings Forecast - The forecast for revenue from 2025 to 2027 is 264.80 billion, 276.00 billion, and 293.31 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of -0.60%, 4.23%, and 6.27% [6] - The projected net profit for the same period is 124.84 billion, 126.93 billion, and 132.31 billion yuan, with growth rates of 1.59%, 1.68%, and 4.24% [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Postal Savings Bank of China (601658) with a target price of 8.10 CNY / 7.72 HKD, compared to the current price of 5.91 CNY / 5.73 HKD [4][8]. Core Insights - The bank's revenue and profit continue to show steady growth, with non-interest income performing strongly. For the first nine months of 2025, total revenue reached 265.08 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 1.82%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 76.56 billion CNY, up 0.98% year-on-year [2][8]. - The bank's asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 0.94% and a provision coverage ratio of 240.21% [2][8]. - The bank's total assets and loans grew by 8.90% and 8.33% respectively compared to the beginning of the year, driven by strong corporate lending [8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, net interest income decreased by 2.07% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed compared to the first half of the year. Non-interest income, particularly from fees and commissions, grew by 11.48% [8]. - The bank's cost control measures have been effective, with business and management expenses decreasing by 2.66% year-on-year, leading to a cost-to-income ratio improvement [8]. Business Segments - Corporate lending remains a strong growth driver, with a year-to-date increase of 653.54 billion CNY, representing a growth rate of 17.91% [8]. - Retail lending growth has shown resilience, with personal loans increasing by 1.90% year-to-date, although the growth rate has slowed due to risk management adjustments [8]. Capital and Risk Management - The bank's core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio improved by 1.09 percentage points to 10.65%, enhancing its capacity for sustainable growth [8]. - The report indicates that the bank's risk management strategies are evolving, particularly in response to pressures in the retail loan sector, with measures in place to stabilize asset quality [8]. Future Outlook - The report forecasts revenue growth rates of 2.4%, 3.5%, and 5.7% for 2025-2027, with net profit growth rates of 1.8%, 3.8%, and 5.1% for the same period [8]. - The current stock price corresponds to a 2026E valuation of 0.66x price-to-book (PB), with a target PB of 0.90x based on the bank's growth potential and market conditions [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) with a target price not specified [6]. Core Views - The company has shown improvement in both revenue and profit, with a slight decline in revenue of 0.51% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, but a profit increase of 0.52% year-on-year [2]. - The net interest margin remains resilient at 1.87%, with a slight decrease of 1 basis point compared to the first half of 2025 [2]. - Non-interest income has shown overall improvement, with net fee and commission income increasing by 0.9% year-on-year [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating income of approximately 2514.2 billion yuan, with net interest income of 1600.42 billion yuan (YoY +1.74%) and non-interest income of 913.78 billion yuan (YoY -4.23%) [2]. - The company’s total interest-earning assets reached 12.26 trillion yuan, growing by 8.58% year-on-year, with loans and financial investments increasing by 5.78% and 21.17% respectively [3]. - The non-performing loan ratio stands at 0.91%, showing a slight improvement, while the loan provision coverage ratio is at 405.9% [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to see a net profit growth of 0.80%, 3.44%, and 4.85% for the years 2025 to 2027 respectively, with corresponding book values per share of 48.54, 54.91, and 60.26 yuan [5]. - The projected operating income for 2025 is 3384 billion yuan, with a slight growth rate of 0.28% [19].

Core Viewpoint - The report anticipates that listed banks will see a cumulative revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders growth of 0.4% and 1.1% respectively in the first three quarters of 2025, with improvements attributed to a narrowing decline in interest margins and a decrease in impairment provisions [1]. Revenue Analysis - Interest net income and net income from fees and commissions are expected to continue improving, with year-on-year growth rates rebounding further compared to mid-year reports. However, other non-interest income may experience a significant decline due to bond market volatility and high base effects, potentially leading to a slight positive growth in cumulative revenue for the first three quarters [2]. - The growth rate of interest net income is projected to decrease by 0.6 percentage points to 9.2% compared to mid-year reports, with new RMB loans from financial institutions in Q3 2025 amounting to 1.83 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 920 billion yuan. The net interest margin is expected to narrow from 14 basis points to 12 basis points year-on-year, remaining stable at 1.41% quarter-on-quarter [2]. Profitability Insights - The asset quality remains stable, with expectations for credit costs to continue declining, smoothing out profit fluctuations. Banks are likely to maintain a prudent operating style, with excess impairment provisions set aside in the first half of the year to address uncertainties. As the economy stabilizes in the second half, the space for reducing provisions will gradually increase, leading to a potential sequential rise in net profit growth [3]. - The banking sector has disposed of over 14.5 trillion yuan in non-performing assets from 2021 to the first half of 2025, with retail banking risks having peaked. For instance, the retail non-performing loan generation rate for a major bank in Q2 2025 was 1.65%, lower than levels seen in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025. The non-performing loan ratio is expected to remain stable compared to mid-year reports, with a slight decrease in the provision coverage ratio and a year-on-year decline in credit costs of approximately 4 basis points to 0.40% [3]. Investment Recommendations - As the mid-term dividend timeline for banks approaches, there may be opportunities for the sector to catch up if market sentiment shifts towards balance as the year-end approaches [4].

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector is expected to maintain positive growth in revenue and profit for the first three quarters of the year, with a narrowing decline in net interest income and a marginal increase in fee income, while other non-interest income shows a slowdown [1][4] Revenue and Profit - The estimated cumulative revenue growth for Q3 2025 is +0.4%, with city commercial banks leading in performance, while large banks are also expected to achieve positive revenue growth [4] - The projected net profit growth for Q3 2025 is around +1.1%, with city commercial banks expected to have the highest net profit growth [4] Interest Income - Net interest income is projected to decline by -0.6% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, with a continued narrowing of the decline [1] - The industry is expected to stabilize its net interest margin in Q3 2025, with a slight increase of +0.7 basis points quarter-on-quarter [1] Non-Interest Income - Fee income is expected to recover, with a projected growth rate of +3.7% year-on-year for Q3 2025, despite pressures from fund and insurance fee rate adjustments [2] - Other non-interest income is projected to grow by +2.7% year-on-year in Q3 2025, supported by diversified income from large banks [2] Asset Quality - The asset quality is expected to remain stable, with improvements in corporate loans and a slowdown in retail loan exposure [3] - The retail loan non-performing rate is estimated at 1.27% for the first half of 2025, showing a gradual increase compared to the end of 2024, indicating a stable trend [3] Investment Recommendations - The banking sector is transitioning from a "pro-cyclical" to a "weak cycle" phase, with a focus on the stability and sustainability of the sector [4] - Investment suggestions include focusing on city commercial banks with growth potential and low valuations, particularly in regions like Jiangsu, Shanghai, Chengdu-Chongqing, Shandong, and Fujian [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Changshu Bank [1] Core Views - Changshu Bank's revenue and profit continue to show double-digit growth, with a 5.5 percentage point increase in the dividend payout ratio [6][21] - The bank's operating income for 2025 is projected to be 12,465 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.0% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 3,280 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.5% [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Changshu Bank's revenue increased by 10.1% year-on-year, while net profit rose by 13.6% [6] - Net interest income grew by 0.8% year-on-year, and non-interest income surged by 57.2% [6] - The annualized net interest margin decreased by 10 basis points to 2.45% [6] Asset and Liability Management - The bank's credit demand remains weak, with new loans in Q2 2025 totaling 1.83 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.86 billion yuan year-on-year [6] - Total deposits increased by 1.7 billion yuan in Q2 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 2.49 billion yuan [6] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio remains stable at 0.76%, with a slight increase in the overdue rate to 1.62% [20] - The provision coverage ratio stands at 489.32%, indicating strong asset quality management [20] Dividend Policy - The interim dividend for 2025 is set at 0.15 yuan per share, totaling 497 million yuan, which is 25.27% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [6][21] Valuation Metrics - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is 6.56, with a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.85 [1] - The bank's return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 14.31% in 2025 [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Changshu Bank, with a target price of 9.59 CNY, compared to the current price of 7.87 CNY [2][7]. Core Views - Changshu Bank's performance remains strong, with a year-on-year revenue growth of 10.10% to 6.062 billion CNY and a net profit growth of 13.51% to 1.969 billion CNY in the first half of 2025 [2][6]. - The bank's non-performing loan ratio remains stable at 0.76%, with a provision coverage ratio of 489.53% [2][6]. - The bank has initiated a mid-term dividend with a payout ratio of 25.3%, reflecting a commitment to returning value to shareholders [2][6]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2025 is projected to reach 12.028 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.20% [8]. - Net profit for 2025 is estimated at 4.320 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 13.30% [8]. - The bank's total assets are expected to grow to 406.872 billion CNY by 2025, with a loan total of 255.314 billion CNY [9][12]. Asset Quality Summary - The non-performing loan ratio is projected to remain stable at 0.77% for 2025, with a provision coverage ratio expected to decrease to 441.60% [10][11]. - The bank's credit impairment losses are anticipated to increase by 11.2% to 1.494 billion CNY [6][10]. Dividend and Capital Management - The bank has announced a cash dividend of 0.15 CNY per share, totaling 4.97 billion CNY, which represents 25.27% of the net profit for the first half of 2025 [6][7]. - The bank's capital management strategy includes a potential redemption of convertible bonds, which could support capital replenishment and facilitate healthy credit issuance [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - Ningbo Bank reported strong performance in the first half of 2025, with both revenue and profit growth showing a quarter-on-quarter increase despite external uncertainties in the second quarter [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Ningbo Bank achieved a revenue growth rate of 7.9%, which is an increase of 2.3 percentage points compared to the previous quarter [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 8.2%, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter improvement of 2.5 percentage points [1]. Asset Quality and Risk Management - The bank maintained a low non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 0.76%, stable compared to the first quarter [2]. - The provision coverage ratio increased to 374.16%, up by 3.62 percentage points from the previous quarter, marking the first quarter-on-quarter increase since the end of 2022 [2]. Market Position and Strategy - Ningbo Bank has adopted an aggressive strategy, focusing on high-quality operational areas and achieving loan growth rates above the industry average [3]. - Despite a recent slowdown in performance due to declining nominal GDP growth and increased risk exposure of existing high-yield assets, the bank's proactive management of non-performing loans and strong provision levels provide a solid foundation for future performance [3]. Outlook - Looking ahead to 2025, with anticipated fiscal stimulus and improved macroeconomic conditions, the bank's performance growth is expected to return to double digits, positioning it back among industry leaders [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Nanjing Bank is "Buy" [9] Core Insights - Nanjing Bank's performance in terms of growth rate, revenue structure, and asset quality has exceeded expectations, with core revenue growing rapidly and asset quality continuing to improve [1] - In Q1 2025, Nanjing Bank's revenue grew by 6.5% year-on-year, while profit increased by 7.1%, although both growth rates showed a decline compared to 2024 [2][3] - The bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 0.83% as of Q1 2025, consistent with the end of 2024, while the provision coverage ratio decreased to 324% [2][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Nanjing Bank's net interest income improved significantly, increasing by 17.8% year-on-year, driven by higher asset growth and stable interest margins [3] - The bank's interest-earning assets grew by 19.4% year-on-year, with both loan and bond scales accelerating [3][5] - The bank's non-interest income also saw a substantial increase of 18% year-on-year, primarily due to strong performance in wealth management and agency sales [3] Asset Quality - The static indicators show that the NPL ratio was 0.83% and the attention rate was 1.15%, with the latter decreasing by 5 basis points [6] - The dynamic indicators indicate an improvement in the NPL generation rate, which fell to 1.46% for the trailing twelve months, showing a year-on-year improvement [6] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Nanjing Bank is expected to maintain a mid-to-high single-digit growth rate in profits, with projected net profit growth rates of 8.09%, 7.03%, and 6.80% for 2025-2027 [7][14] - The target price is set at 14.26 CNY per share, corresponding to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.91, indicating a potential upside of 37% from the current price [7]