证 券 研 究 报 告 邮储银行（601658）2025 年三季报点评 推荐（维持） 非息支撑营收提速，对公零售均衡发展 事项： ❖ 10 月 30 日晚，邮储银行披露 2025 年三季报，1-9 月实现营业收入 2,650.80 亿 元，同比增长 1.82%（上半年+1.50%）；归母净利润 765.62 亿元，同比增长 0.98%（上半年+0.85%）。不良率 0.94%，环比上升 2bp；拨备覆盖率 240.21%， 环比下降 20.2pct。 评论： 公司研究 国有大型银行Ⅲ 2025 年 10 月 31 日 目标价：8.10 元/7.72 港元 当前价：5.91 元/5.73 港元 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：贾靖 邮箱：jiajing@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040004 证券分析师：徐康 电话：021-20572556 邮箱：xukang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518060005 证券分析师：林宛慧 邮箱：linwanhui@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524110001 公司基本数据 | 总股本(万股) | 12,009,505.35 | | ...

公司报告 | 季报点评 净息差保持韧性。2025 前三季度，招商银行净息差录得 1.87%，较 25H1 小幅下行 1bp。其中，生息资产收益率录得 3.08%，较 2025 年中下行 6bp； 计息负债成本率持续改善，较 2025 年中压降 4bp 至 1.31%。 非息收入整体改善。1-3Q25 公司手续费及佣金净收入 562.02 亿元， YoY+0.9%，较 2025 上半年提升 2.79pct，呈改善态势。此外，1-3Q25 投资净收益 302.52 亿元，YoY+22.67%，浮盈兑现力度加大。 资产端：截止 2025 第三季度，招商银行生息资产总计 12.26 万亿元，同 比增长 8.58%。其中，贷款、金融投资、同业及拆放、存放央行分别同比 +5.78%、+21.17%、-3.85%、-13.37%。从结构细分来看，贷款、金 融投资、同业及拆放、存放央行占生息资产比重分别为 56.06%、33.09%、 6.40%、4.45%，贷款占比较 2025 年中提升 0.31pct。 负债端：截止 2025 第三季度，招商银行计息负债余额 10.86 万亿元，同 比+1.05%。其中，存款、发行债券、 ...

我们预计上市银行 2025 年前三季度累计营收及归母净利润分别同比增长 0.4% 、 1.1% ，增速较中报 -0.6pct 、 +0.3pct 。 主要得益于息差同比降幅收 窄和减值计提下降让渡空间，但债市宽幅震荡拖累其他非息收入不确定性上升，个股投资收益表现取决于银行跨期摆布策略选择（至 25Q2 末上市银行 OCI 浮盈达 1871 亿元，相当于 2024 年归母净利润的 8.5% ， AC 账户浮盈或更丰厚）。板块内城商行业绩增速有望保持领先，国有行营收同比正增承压，但 净利润增速大概率转正。 营收端，利息净收入和手续费及佣金净收入有望延续年初以来改善态势、同比增速较中报进一步回升，但其他非息收入受债市波动和高基数拖累，单季同比负 增幅度或超两位数、拖曳前三季度累计营收增速微正。 利息净收入方面，生息资产同比增速 25Q2 冲高后回落，我们预计较中报下降 0.6pct 至 9.2% ； 25Q3 金融机构新增人民币贷款 18,300 亿元、同比少增 9,200 亿元，上市银行难以独善其身，预计 25Q3 同比增速较中报放缓 0.3pct 至 7.8% 。但三季 报净息差同比降幅有望较中报的 14bp ...

智通财经APP获悉，中泰证券发布研报称，预计上市银行行业前三季度营收利润增速仍能维持正增。其 中净利息收入降幅收窄，手续费增速边际向上，其他非息收入增速放缓。全年趋势延续。资产质量维持 平稳，对公持续优化，零售不良暴露速度预计有放缓。银行股从"顺周期"到"弱周期"，看好板块的稳健 性和持续性。在目前环境下，从兼顾成长与防御的角度，建议关注有成长性且估值低的城农商行。 手续费：增速继续修复。24年受基金、保险费率下调影响，手续费增长承压，费率调整完毕以后，低基 数下全年手续费预计同样延续逐季改善态势。测算上市银行3Q25手续费同比增速修复至+3.7%左右。净 其他非息：三季度债市利率波动上行，预计其他非息有压力，但浮盈仍可兑现平滑。测算3Q25其他非 息同比+2.7%，主要是大行多元化其他非息收入支撑。虽然Q3债市利率上行，但Q4开始至今利率又有 所下行，在OCI有支撑的情况下，预计全年其他非息收入对业绩不会有较大拖累。 资产质量趋势延续：对公改善、零售暴露、总体稳健，零售暴露速度预计放缓。 对公端国家信用支撑客群占比高，零售继续暴露但预计暴露幅度收窄。零售不良暴露平稳：测算1H25 上市银行零售贷款不良率1. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Changshu Bank [1] Core Views - Changshu Bank's revenue and profit continue to show double-digit growth, with a 5.5 percentage point increase in the dividend payout ratio [6][21] - The bank's operating income for 2025 is projected to be 12,465 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.0% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 3,280 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.5% [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Changshu Bank's revenue increased by 10.1% year-on-year, while net profit rose by 13.6% [6] - Net interest income grew by 0.8% year-on-year, and non-interest income surged by 57.2% [6] - The annualized net interest margin decreased by 10 basis points to 2.45% [6] Asset and Liability Management - The bank's credit demand remains weak, with new loans in Q2 2025 totaling 1.83 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.86 billion yuan year-on-year [6] - Total deposits increased by 1.7 billion yuan in Q2 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 2.49 billion yuan [6] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio remains stable at 0.76%, with a slight increase in the overdue rate to 1.62% [20] - The provision coverage ratio stands at 489.32%, indicating strong asset quality management [20] Dividend Policy - The interim dividend for 2025 is set at 0.15 yuan per share, totaling 497 million yuan, which is 25.27% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [6][21] Valuation Metrics - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is 6.56, with a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.85 [1] - The bank's return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 14.31% in 2025 [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Changshu Bank, with a target price of 9.59 CNY, compared to the current price of 7.87 CNY [2][7]. Core Views - Changshu Bank's performance remains strong, with a year-on-year revenue growth of 10.10% to 6.062 billion CNY and a net profit growth of 13.51% to 1.969 billion CNY in the first half of 2025 [2][6]. - The bank's non-performing loan ratio remains stable at 0.76%, with a provision coverage ratio of 489.53% [2][6]. - The bank has initiated a mid-term dividend with a payout ratio of 25.3%, reflecting a commitment to returning value to shareholders [2][6]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2025 is projected to reach 12.028 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.20% [8]. - Net profit for 2025 is estimated at 4.320 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 13.30% [8]. - The bank's total assets are expected to grow to 406.872 billion CNY by 2025, with a loan total of 255.314 billion CNY [9][12]. Asset Quality Summary - The non-performing loan ratio is projected to remain stable at 0.77% for 2025, with a provision coverage ratio expected to decrease to 441.60% [10][11]. - The bank's credit impairment losses are anticipated to increase by 11.2% to 1.494 billion CNY [6][10]. Dividend and Capital Management - The bank has announced a cash dividend of 0.15 CNY per share, totaling 4.97 billion CNY, which represents 25.27% of the net profit for the first half of 2025 [6][7]. - The bank's capital management strategy includes a potential redemption of convertible bonds, which could support capital replenishment and facilitate healthy credit issuance [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - Ningbo Bank reported strong performance in the first half of 2025, with both revenue and profit growth showing a quarter-on-quarter increase despite external uncertainties in the second quarter [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Ningbo Bank achieved a revenue growth rate of 7.9%, which is an increase of 2.3 percentage points compared to the previous quarter [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 8.2%, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter improvement of 2.5 percentage points [1]. Asset Quality and Risk Management - The bank maintained a low non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 0.76%, stable compared to the first quarter [2]. - The provision coverage ratio increased to 374.16%, up by 3.62 percentage points from the previous quarter, marking the first quarter-on-quarter increase since the end of 2022 [2]. Market Position and Strategy - Ningbo Bank has adopted an aggressive strategy, focusing on high-quality operational areas and achieving loan growth rates above the industry average [3]. - Despite a recent slowdown in performance due to declining nominal GDP growth and increased risk exposure of existing high-yield assets, the bank's proactive management of non-performing loans and strong provision levels provide a solid foundation for future performance [3]. Outlook - Looking ahead to 2025, with anticipated fiscal stimulus and improved macroeconomic conditions, the bank's performance growth is expected to return to double digits, positioning it back among industry leaders [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Nanjing Bank is "Buy" [9] Core Insights - Nanjing Bank's performance in terms of growth rate, revenue structure, and asset quality has exceeded expectations, with core revenue growing rapidly and asset quality continuing to improve [1] - In Q1 2025, Nanjing Bank's revenue grew by 6.5% year-on-year, while profit increased by 7.1%, although both growth rates showed a decline compared to 2024 [2][3] - The bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 0.83% as of Q1 2025, consistent with the end of 2024, while the provision coverage ratio decreased to 324% [2][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Nanjing Bank's net interest income improved significantly, increasing by 17.8% year-on-year, driven by higher asset growth and stable interest margins [3] - The bank's interest-earning assets grew by 19.4% year-on-year, with both loan and bond scales accelerating [3][5] - The bank's non-interest income also saw a substantial increase of 18% year-on-year, primarily due to strong performance in wealth management and agency sales [3] Asset Quality - The static indicators show that the NPL ratio was 0.83% and the attention rate was 1.15%, with the latter decreasing by 5 basis points [6] - The dynamic indicators indicate an improvement in the NPL generation rate, which fell to 1.46% for the trailing twelve months, showing a year-on-year improvement [6] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Nanjing Bank is expected to maintain a mid-to-high single-digit growth rate in profits, with projected net profit growth rates of 8.09%, 7.03%, and 6.80% for 2025-2027 [7][14] - The target price is set at 14.26 CNY per share, corresponding to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.91, indicating a potential upside of 37% from the current price [7]