1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current supply of hot-rolled coils has slightly increased, and the demand is stable and resilient. The overall supply and demand are in a tight balance. Pre-holiday winter storage is an important support for current demand. The social inventory of the total inventory has decreased month-on-month, and the pressure on factory inventory is controllable. The overall inventory risk has been marginally improved. In summary, the tight balance between supply and demand and inventory reduction support the price. After the holiday, attention should be paid to the strength of demand recovery. Currently, the macro-loose expectation supports the price. Today, it has re-stepped on the 5-day and 30-day moving averages, maintaining a generally bullish outlook [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market行情回顾 - **Futures Price**: On Thursday, the trading volume of the main hot-rolled coil futures contract was 434,547 lots, an increase from the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,277 yuan, and the high was 3,313 yuan. It increased in price with increased positions during the day. From the perspective of the daily moving average, it briefly crossed above the 5-day and 30-day moving averages in the short term, closing at 3,308 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan or 0.79% [1] - **Spot Price**: The price of hot-rolled coils in Shanghai, a mainstream region, was reported at 3,280 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the previous trading day [2] - **Basis**: The basis between futures and spot was -28 yuan, with futures slightly at a premium to the spot [3] 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 29, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils increased by 38,000 tons month-on-month to 3.0921 million tons. This week's output is at a moderately high level in recent years, indicating that steel mills are still maintaining a high production pace before the Spring Festival, with increased production enthusiasm [4] - **Demand**: As of January 29, the weekly apparent consumption increased by 14,500 tons month-on-month to 3.1141 million tons. This week's apparent consumption slightly increased and is at a relatively good level compared to the same period in previous years [4] - **Inventory**: As of January 22, the total inventory decreased by 22,200 tons week-on-week to 3.5558 million tons (social inventory decreased by 28,100 tons week-on-week, while steel mill inventory increased by 6,100 tons). The total inventory decreased month-on-month, and the inventory pressure was marginally relieved. The overall inventory is in a destocking phase [4] - **Policy**: A new regulation on the export license management of steel products has been introduced. In the short term, it will cause fluctuations in exports, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness enhancement. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December proposed an active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. In 2026, in - depth rectification of involution - style competition was listed as a key task, which is beneficial to prices and industry profits. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [4][5] 3.3 Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: Expectation of the start of winter storage demand, rush - to - export market, policy support ("14th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore as a furnace charge [6] - **Bearish Factors**: The resumption of production by steel mills in January exceeded expectations, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6]

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 地缘反复扰动，油价短线反弹。地缘：中东地缘反复，油价反弹；核心驱 动：淡季供给过剩，消费淡季叠加 OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓 | | 原油 | 空头反弹 | 以及在途原油激增，美国原油和成品油库存均累库，原油供给过剩压力逐 | | ★ | | 渐上升；关注变量：美国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及中东地缘进展。 | | | | 中东地缘反复，跟随成本端反弹。成本端油价短期受地缘扰动反弹，当前 | | LPG | 空头反弹 | 原油仍过剩，中枢或继续下移；供需方面，液化气商品量出现下降，PDH | | ★ | | 开工率维持在 70%上方，下游化工需求存在韧性；库存端利多，港口库存 | | | | 环比下降。 | | L | | 短期跟随天然气偏强震荡，标品供应回升抑制反弹空间，关注寒潮和地缘 | | | 空头反弹 | 变动。两油石化库存暂无明显压力，上游出厂价偏强。近期线性排产继续 | | ★ | | 回升，农膜需求淡季，终端补库意愿不足，基本面供强需弱存累库预期， | ...

1. Report's Overall Industry Investment Rating - Cautious view on the overall energy - chemical industry, including cautious short - term views on some commodities and a wait - and - see attitude towards potential risks. Some commodities are rated as "cautious to buy on dips", "cautious to chase up", and "cautious to go short" [4] 2. Report's Core Views - The geopolitical situation repeatedly disturbs the energy market, causing short - term price rebounds in oil and related products. However, in the medium to long term, factors such as supply - demand imbalances and seasonal effects still put pressure on prices [1][9] - Different commodities have different supply - demand fundamentals. For example, some have over - supply problems, while others have weak demand during the off - season, which affects their price trends [1][14] 3. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - Core view: Short - term rebound due to geopolitical disturbances and cold - wave - driven gas price increases, but long - term pressure from over - supply [1][9] - Market performance: On January 23, WTI rose 2.88%, Brent rose 1.58%, and SC fell 1.55% [7][8] - Fundamental analysis: Supply is affected by geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East and potential short - term supply decline in the US due to cold waves. Demand from Japan decreased in December 2025. US crude and product inventories increased [10] - Strategy recommendation: In the medium to long term, OPEC+ production increase may push oil prices down. Short - term rebound, with SC focusing on the [445 - 455] range [11] LPG - Core view: Rebound following the cost - end oil price, but long - term downward pressure due to over - supply of upstream crude oil [1][14] - Market performance: On January 23, the PG main contract closed at 4151 yuan/ton, up 0.75%. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China decreased [12][13] - Fundamental analysis: Supply increased slightly in the week of January 23. Downstream chemical demand weakened, and port inventory decreased while refinery inventory increased [14] - Strategy recommendation: In the medium to long term, the price center may continue to move down. Pay attention to the [4200 - 4300] range [15] L (Linear Low - Density Polyethylene) - Core view: Rebound driven by the cold - wave - induced increase in ethane cost, but limited by strong supply and weak demand [16][19] - Market performance: L05 rose 0.7% on January 23 [17] - Fundamental analysis: Cold - wave in North America improved cost support, but linear production increased, and it is the off - season for agricultural film demand, with weak terminal replenishment willingness [19] - Strategy recommendation: Cautious to chase up, focus on the [6800 - 7000] range [19] PP (Polypropylene) - Core view: Rebound due to improved cost support, but limited by the off - season demand [20][23] - Market performance: PP05 rose on January 23 [21] - Fundamental analysis: Total commercial inventory pressure eased, but terminal factories are on holiday, downstream replenishment is weak. PDH profit is low, increasing maintenance expectations [23] - Strategy recommendation: Cautious to chase up, focus on the [6600 - 6800] range [23] PVC - Core view: Short - term rebound due to export rush, but long - term supply - demand may weaken [24][27] - Market performance: V05 rose 1.5% on January 23 [25] - Fundamental analysis: Short - term export orders increased, but long - term supply - demand is expected to weaken, and the high - inventory structure is difficult to reverse [27] - Strategy recommendation: Focus on monthly positive - spread trading, focus on the [4850 - 5000] range [27] PTA - Core view: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, with positive expectations [28][29] - Market performance: TA05 closed at 5018 yuan/ton on January 23 [28] - Fundamental analysis: Valuation is not low, supply is affected by planned plant maintenance, demand is seasonally weak, and cost - end PX is in a weak balance. There is slight inventory accumulation in January - February [29] - Strategy recommendation: Short - term driving force is limited. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for TA05 in the [5350 - 5480] range [30] MEG (Ethylene Glycol) - Core view: Short - term rebound due to domestic production cuts and overseas plant disturbances, but long - term pressure from inventory accumulation [31][32] - Market performance: EG05 was at 3614 yuan/ton on January 23 [31] - Fundamental analysis: Valuation is low, supply is affected by domestic and overseas plant changes, demand is seasonally weak, and inventory is expected to accumulate in January - February [32] - Strategy recommendation: Pay attention to the opportunity to short on the rebound, focus on the [3860 - 4050] range for EG05 [33] Methanol - Core view: Weak current situation vs. strong expectations, limited rebound height [34][36] - Market performance: Spot prices in Europe and the US rebounded, and domestic Taicang price increased [37] - Fundamental analysis: Absolute valuation is not low, supply is under pressure with high domestic and overseas imports in January, demand is slightly weak, and cost support is weak and stable [36][37] - Strategy recommendation: Long positions can be held due to the resurgence of geopolitical conflicts. Focus on the [2300 - 2360] range for MA05 [38] Urea - Core view: Short - term rebound due to cost support and strong supply - demand, but weakening support in the off - season [39][40] - Market performance: The main contract price rose [39] - Fundamental analysis: Absolute valuation is not low, supply is increasing with high daily output, demand is strong in the short - term but may weaken in the holiday off - season, and social inventory is relatively high [40][41] - Strategy recommendation: Cautious to chase up, focus on the [1770 - 1800] range for UR05 [42] LNG - Core view: Price rise due to increased heating demand caused by cold air in North America, but limited upward space due to sufficient supply [43][45] - Market performance: On January 23, the NG main contract fell 1.64%, and the US Henry Hub spot price increased [43][44] - Fundamental analysis: Cold air boosts demand, supply is relatively sufficient, and US natural gas inventory decreased [45] - Strategy recommendation: Pay attention to the [3.689 - 4.354] range for NG [46] Asphalt - Core view: Price rise following the cost - end oil price [47][50] - Market performance: On January 23, the BU main contract fell 0.19%, and spot prices in some regions increased [48][49] - Fundamental analysis: Cost support comes from the change in Venezuelan crude oil discounts. Supply is expected to decrease in February, and inventory increased [50] - Strategy recommendation: Pay attention to geopolitical risks, focus on the [3250 - 3350] range for BU [51] Glass - Core view: Low - level rebound following market sentiment, but limited by weak supply - demand [52][55] - Market performance: FG05 rose 0.7% on January 23 [53] - Fundamental analysis: Supply - demand is in a weak balance, inventory is high, demand is in the off - season, and supply reduction is needed to digest inventory [55] - Strategy recommendation: Cautious to chase up, focus on the [1040 - 1090] range for FG [55] Soda Ash - Core view: Bearish consolidation due to high - supply operation [56][59] - Market performance: SA05 rose 1.1% on January 23 [57] - Fundamental analysis: Spot price increase lags behind, demand from the real estate and photovoltaic industries is weak, supply is under pressure with increased production capacity utilization, and inventory is slowly decreasing [59] - Strategy recommendation: Bearish view until further maintenance intensifies. Focus on the [1170 - 1220] range for SA [59]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Reports Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices oscillated weakly due to concerns about global crude oil supply surplus and seasonal demand decline. OPEC+ relaxing production cuts and non - OPEC+ countries increasing production led to higher supply expectations. While refinery profits are good currently, the approaching end of the US summer driving season reduces gasoline demand expectations. Geopolitical factors offer some support but the overall market sentiment is bearish, with a high probability of short - term weak oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see on the single - side and look for opportunities to widen spreads on the option side after volatility increases [1]. Polyester Industry - PX: Supply is increasing as检修 devices restart, and downstream PTA has many unplanned shutdowns due to low processing fees. Although the "Golden September and Silver October" demand expectation exists, terminal load declined this week, and the demand support is limited. PX11 should focus on the support around 6800, and the strategy of widening the PX - SC spread should exit at high levels [43]. - PTA: In August - September, supply - demand situation has improved compared to expectations due to more unplanned shutdowns. However, terminal load declined this week, and demand support is limited. TA should focus on the support around 4750 and adopt a rolling reverse spread strategy for TA1 - 5 [43]. - Ethylene Glycol: Domestic supply is increasing as devices resume production, and port inventory is at a low level. With the approaching of the demand peak season, it is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term. Sellers of the short - put option EG2601 - P - 4350 can hold [43]. - Short - fiber: Supply load remains high, demand is uncertain, and it mainly follows raw material fluctuations. The single - side strategy is the same as PTA, and the processing fee on the disk oscillates between 800 - 1100 with limited upward and downward drivers [43]. - Bottle chips: In August, it is the peak consumption season, and inventory is slowly decreasing. The processing fee has support at the bottom, but it is suppressed by the short - term strengthening of the cost side. The PR single - side strategy is the same as PTA, and the main - contract processing fee on the disk is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [43]. Methanol - Port inventory is increasing significantly, the basis is weak, and imports in September remain high. The supply side has high domestic and rising overseas non - Iranian production. The demand side is weak due to the off - season, but there is an expectation of MTO device restart in September. Future attention should be paid to the inventory inflection point [72][74]. Urea - The rebound of the urea futures is driven by short - term supply contraction due to more device shutdowns for maintenance. Although daily production is still higher than last year, the expected production reduction supports the market. Downstream restocking also strengthens the supply - contraction expectation. However, the market is still in a state of inventory accumulation, and the rebound strength may be limited. Future attention should be paid to device restart progress, port collection, and industrial demand in North China before the parade [85]. Polyolefins - PP: Devices scheduled for restart next week will increase production. The price center is moving down, and the weighted profit is compressed. PP achieves inventory reduction with both supply and demand increasing. - PE: High - level maintenance will continue until September. It shows a stable - to - downward trend. Supply decreases while demand increases, with upstream inventory reduction and mid - stream inventory accumulation. Before mid - September, the overall supply pressure is not large, and the LP01 spread should be held [88]. Chlor - Alkali - Caustic Soda: The futures price is slightly falling, and the previous high - level resistance is obvious. Although the spot market was strong before, with good demand from Shandong's downstream alumina plants and inventory reduction, the supply is expected to increase as some plants resume production. The demand is growing, but the short - term futures pressure may be transmitted to the spot market, and short - selling can be considered [91]. - PVC: The futures price is weakening, and the spot price is also decreasing. Supply is expected to increase as new production capacity is put into use and maintenance decreases. Demand from downstream products is weak, and export pressure increases due to the Indonesian anti - dumping tax. Previous short positions can be held [91]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure Benzene: There is an expectation of supply - demand improvement in the third quarter, but as previous maintenance devices resume and there will be a concentrated arrival of pure benzene at the terminal in the second half of the month, the fundamental advantage is weakening. It oscillates weakly, and BZ2603 should follow the fluctuations of oil prices and styrene [94]. - Styrene: Downstream 3S load declined slightly this week. The industry is in a loss, supply is high, and port inventory is high, so the short - term drive is weak. However, there are more maintenance plans in September - October, and export expectations increase, so the supply - demand situation may improve. EB10 short positions should be closed at low levels, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [94]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 29, Brent crude was at $68.62/barrel (up $0.57 or 0.84% from August 28), WTI was at $64.19/barrel (down $0.41 or - 0.63%), and SC was at 500.10 yuan/barrel (up 6.60 yuan or 1.34%). Different price spreads also showed various changes [1]. - **Product Oil**: NYM RBOB increased by 2.34%, NYM ULSD decreased by 0.71%, and ICE Gasoil decreased by 0.04%. Different product oil spreads also changed on August 29 compared to August 28 [1]. - **Crack Spreads**: Crack spreads in different regions and for different products showed different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing [1]. Polyester Industry - **Upstream Prices**: Brent and WTI crude oil prices increased, CFR Japan naphtha increased, CFR China MX decreased, etc. [43]. - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: Prices of POY, FDY, DTY, etc. showed different changes, and cash flows also varied [43]. - **PX - Related**: CFR China PX, PX futures prices, and various PX spreads all changed [43]. - **PTA - Related**: PTA spot and futures prices decreased, and processing fees also changed [43]. - **MEG - Related**: MEG prices, basis, and cash flows showed different trends, and port inventory was at a low level [43]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 increased slightly, MA2509 decreased, and the MA91 spread and various regional spreads changed [72]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories all increased [73]. - **Upstream and Downstream开工率**: Domestic upstream开工率 decreased slightly, overseas upstream开工率 increased slightly, and downstream开工率 showed different trends [74]. Urea - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: Different futures contracts showed different price changes, and contract spreads also changed [80][81]. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices in different regions showed small fluctuations [84]. - **Supply and Demand**: Daily and weekly production, inventory, and开工率 all changed, with production slightly decreasing and inventory increasing [85]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 all decreased, and various spreads and basis changed [88]. - **Inventory**: PE and PP enterprise and trade - related inventories showed different trends [88]. - **Upstream and Downstream开工率**: PE and PP装置开工率 and downstream加权开工率 changed slightly [88]. Chlor - Alkali - **PVC and Caustic Soda Prices**: Prices of different types of caustic soda and PVC in the spot and futures markets showed small changes [91]. - **Supply and Demand**:开工率 of caustic soda and PVC industries, downstream开工率 of caustic soda and PVC products, and inventory all changed [91]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Prices**: Crude oil, naphtha, and ethylene prices changed, and pure benzene - related prices and spreads also varied [94]. - **Styrene - Related Prices**: Styrene spot and futures prices, spreads, and cash flows changed [94]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports changed [94]. - **产业链开工率**:开工率 of different parts of the pure benzene and styrene industry chain changed [94].