1月29日，A股各大指数走势两极分化，沪指窄幅震荡，创业板指冲高回落，科创50指数跌超3%，而上证 50指数涨超1%，截至收盘，沪指涨0.16%，报4157.98点，深成指跌0.3%，报14300.08点，创业板指跌 0.57%，报3304.51点，科创50指数跌3.03%，报1507.64点。沪深京三市成交额32594亿元，较上日放量2671 亿元，超3500只个股飘绿。 从板块来看，色金属板块反复活跃，金属铜、贵金属（核心股）领涨，西部黄金7天4板，中国黄金5连 板，北方铜业2连板创历史新高。油气股延续强势，洲际油气7天5板，准油股份2连板，中曼石油4天3板。 房地产（核心股）板块震荡反弹，大悦城、三湘印象、我爱我家涨停。 午后持续白酒（核心股）板块走高泸州老窖、水井坊、舍得酒业、皇台酒业、酒鬼酒涨停。 午后保险板块震荡走强，新华保险涨超3%，创历史新高，中国太保涨近5%，中国平安、中国人寿、中国 人保涨幅靠前。消息面上，华创证券表示，分红险持续深化带动结构改善，银保渠道网点拓张赋能新单增 长，"报行合一"细化有望持续贡献价值率增量，预计2026年上市险企合计新业务价值增速或在15%+的水 平。 另一方面 ...

据蒲祖林介绍，年初财政政策前置发力和货币政策宽松给市场带来了增量流动性。此外，2026年居民定 期存款到期量为近5年最高水平，且一季度到期规模占比超60%，预计银行定期存款利率将降至 1%~1.5%，叠加股市赚钱效应较好，部分居民存款或选择配置收益率更高的保险、银行理财和基金等产 品，给股市注入源源不断的增量资金。 2026年年初，A股及股指市场在经历一轮上涨后，转入震荡调整格局。分析人士表示，前期基于政策与 流动性的乐观预期在很大程度上已被市场定价，后续运行方向需看经济修复强度和企业盈利改善情况。 不过，蒲祖林表示，股市很大程度上会放大盈利预期的波动，2025年股市上涨既有盈利改善的带动，也 有流动性和风险偏好提升的催化，这表现为市场对科技行业的乐观预期而提前定价高估值，但对传统行 业的预期相对温和。随着"反内卷"的推进，2025年四季度以来，部分顺周期行业龙头公司已展开一轮盈 利复苏的预期行情，如近期航空公司、化工、建材等细分行业表现亮眼，但盈利的改善或许在2026年下 半年才有所体现。 "开年股指强势上行，月中随着政策给市场投机情绪降温，股指震荡调整。1月14日，沪深北三家交易所 宣布自1月19日起提高 ...

图虫创意/供图 证券时报记者 裴利瑞 在成长风格的另一端，以有色为代表的周期风格正在成为基金经理的新宠。 近日，公募基金2025年四季报密集披露，证券时报记者注意到，在市场热点此起彼伏的同时，多位 知名基金经理却在2025年四季度"不谋而合"地对有色板块进行了重点加仓，而深耕该领域的基金经理更 是在季报中用仓位和持股表达了自己的看好。 多位基金经理认为，在宏观经济温和复苏、全球商品周期持续以及降息预期等多重因素共振下，有 色板块仍具备显著的吸引力，价格景气周期远未结束。 多位知名基金经理加仓有色 最新披露的2025年四季报显示，众多全行业配置的基金在去年四季度加仓以有色为代表的资源股， 其中不乏多位知名基金经理。 比如，高楠管理的永赢睿信混合在去年四季度新进重仓五矿资源、宏创控股，神爱前管理的平安兴 奕成长新进重仓了云铝股份，王崇管理的交银新兴产业和焦巍管理的银华富裕主题新进重仓了紫金矿 业。此外，焦巍管理的银华富饶精选三年持有更是在去年四季度同时新进重仓了紫金矿业、藏格矿业、 洛阳钼业、云铝股份、西部矿业、紫金黄金国际、江西铜业等多只有色股。 除了上述全行业配置的基金，一些深耕资源股投资的基金经理，也在20 ...

在成长风格的另一端，以有色为代表的周期风格正在成为基金经理的新宠。 近日，公募基金2025年四季报密集披露，证券时报记者注意到，在市场热点此起彼伏的同时，多位知名 基金经理却在2025年四季度"不谋而合"地对有色板块进行了重点加仓，而深耕该领域的基金经理更是在 季报中用仓位和持股表达了自己的看好。 多位基金经理认为，在宏观经济温和复苏、全球商品周期持续以及降息预期等多重因素共振下，有色板 块仍具备显著的吸引力，价格景气周期远未结束。 神爱前指出，自己管理的基金在2025年四季度加仓了电解铝及有色金属板块，略减仓了科技板块，主要 是因为宏观政策加力推动需求温和复苏，叠加"反内卷"政策，有望重塑周期制造板块供需格局。他认 为，2026年PPI有望同比逐渐回升，库存周期有望步入主动补库阶段，进而对盈利修复带来更大弹性， 并带动周期行业盈利实质性回升，重点看好供给约束良好、需求温和复苏的周期品种，如化工和电解铝 等工业金属及其他品种。 最新披露的2025年四季报显示，众多全行业配置的基金在去年四季度加仓以有色为代表的资源股，其中 不乏多位知名基金经理。 比如，高楠管理的永赢睿信混合在去年四季度新进重仓五矿资源、宏创控 ...

在成长风格的另一端，以有色为代表的周期风格正在成为基金经理的新宠。 近日，公募基金2025年四季报密集披露，券商中国记者注意到，在市场热点此起彼伏的同时，多位知名 基金经理却在去年四季度"不谋而合"地对有色板块进行了重点加仓，而深耕该领域的基金经理更是在季 报中用仓位和持股表达了自己的坚定看好。 多位基金经理认为，在宏观经济温和复苏、全球商品周期持续以及降息预期等多重因素共振下，有色板 块仍具备显著的吸引力，价格景气周期远未结束。 多位知名基金经理加仓有色 最新披露的2025年四季报显示，众多全行业配置的基金在去年四季度加仓以有色为代表的资源股，其中 不乏多位知名基金经理。 比如，高楠管理的永赢睿信混合在去年四季度新进重仓五矿资源、宏创控股，神爱前管理的平安兴奕成 长新进重仓了云铝股份，王崇管理的交银新兴产业和焦巍管理的银华富裕主题新进重仓了紫金矿业，此 外，焦巍管理的银华富饶精选三年持有更是在去年四季度同时新进重仓了紫金矿业、藏格矿业、洛阳钼 业、云铝股份、西部矿业、紫金黄金国际、江西铜业等多只有色股。 除了上述全行业配置的基金外，一些深耕资源股投资的基金经理，也在去年四季度继续用持仓表达了对 有色的看好。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing fluctuations, with the ChiNext Index dropping over 1% and the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.07%, while the Hongli Low Volatility ETF (512890) has seen a decline of 0.77% [1][11]. Fund Performance - The Hongli Low Volatility ETF (512890) is currently priced at 1.161 CNY, with a trading volume of 7.57 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 2.86% [1][11]. - Over the past five trading days, the fund has seen a net inflow of 297 million CNY, with a total net inflow of 1.808 billion CNY over the last 20 days and 5.172 billion CNY over the last 60 days [4][10]. - The fund's total return as of January 7, 2026, is 133.70%, outperforming its benchmark, ranking 98th among 502 funds [6][13]. Market Context - Morgan Stanley predicts that the CSI 300 Index will reach a target of 5200 points in 2026, indicating a potential increase of approximately 13.5% [6][13]. - The current market phase is transitioning from liquidity-driven growth to profit improvement-driven growth, suggesting a favorable environment for cyclical stocks [6][13]. - New regulations are expected to benefit sectors such as banking, public utilities, and coal, which are part of the dividend sector [6][13]. Top Holdings - The top ten holdings of the Hongli Low Volatility ETF include companies like COFCO Sugar, Nanjing Bank, and Agricultural Bank of China, with varying performance among these stocks [3][8].

Group 1 - The market is expected to undergo a rebalancing process in the fourth quarter, with a shift towards cyclical styles and a recovery in previously lagging sectors [2] - The technology sector is transitioning from a focus on upstream computing hardware to a broader growth pattern across various AI-related segments [2] - Huabao Fund has launched three major broad-based ETFs tracking the China A-share market, providing investors with diverse options for exposure [2] Group 2 - The top three sectors with net capital inflow are retail, defense, and comprehensive industries, with inflows of 135.86 billion, 91.49 billion, and 90.69 billion respectively [2] - The overall market saw a trading volume of 2.18 trillion yuan, an increase of 199 billion from the previous day [1] - The A-share market experienced a mixed performance, with 2,655 stocks rising, 2,572 stocks falling, and 201 stocks remaining unchanged [1]

Core Viewpoint - The investment outlook is optimistic for cyclical sectors, particularly in non-ferrous metals, driven by multiple factors including global capital expenditure cycles, manufacturing recovery, monetary policy shifts, and improved domestic macroeconomic expectations [1][3]. Group 1: Non-Ferrous Metals Sector - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown strong performance, with leading companies' stock prices doubling, but there is a mismatch between current valuations and fundamentals [2][3]. - The core logic for non-ferrous metals includes their role as globally priced commodities, entering a long-term supply-tight price upcycle due to sustained demand and supply constraints [3]. - Factors such as ongoing global manufacturing investment cycles, strategic metal resource demand, and monetary expansion are expected to drive further demand for non-ferrous metals [3]. Group 2: Strategic Asset Allocation - The investment strategy emphasizes a strategic allocation to cyclical assets, focusing on sectors with strong demand-side logic [4]. - The first tier of allocation includes industrial metals, minor metals, and precious metals, with copper and aluminum highlighted for their robust long-term demand and profitability [5]. - The second tier focuses on traditional midstream cyclical leaders like chemicals, steel, coal, and financial sectors, which have low valuations and maintain decent return on equity [6]. - The third tier includes post-cyclical sectors such as general machinery and real estate, which may require time to realize their potential as the macroeconomic cycle progresses [6].

Core Viewpoint - The cyclical sectors, particularly non-ferrous metals, have shown strong performance in 2023 due to supply-side constraints, expectations of global liquidity easing, and domestic "anti-involution" policies driving demand [7][8]. Factors Driving Cyclical Stock Performance - Domestic economic recovery and potential global monetary easing have positively impacted cyclical assets [8]. - Supply-side constraints and industrial cycle expectations have led to strong performance in non-ferrous metals like copper and aluminum [8]. - Strategic small metal varieties, such as rare earths, have seen optimistic market expectations due to policy and supply-side reductions [8]. - Traditional industries like coal, steel, and chemicals have benefited from the "anti-involution" policy, resulting in structural rebounds [8][11]. Valuation and Market Sentiment - Despite significant price increases in non-ferrous metals, valuations remain reasonable, with some stocks still undervalued [12][13]. - The recovery in company earnings has provided a solid foundation for stock price increases, with overall valuations still within a reasonable range [12][13]. - The cyclical industry is in a recovery phase, with many companies experiencing high growth rates from a low base, but not yet at peak profitability [14][15]. Investment Strategy and Focus - The investment strategy is leaning towards a pro-cyclical approach, focusing on sectors with strong demand logic [17]. - Key sectors for investment include industrial metals, small metals, and precious metals, with traditional cyclical leaders also being prioritized [17]. - A balanced approach of defensive and offensive strategies is recommended, with a focus on stocks that have strong fundamentals and reasonable valuations [17][18]. Challenges Ahead - Potential challenges for the cyclical industry include demand-side risks, particularly in sectors like copper and aluminum, which are closely tied to economic expectations [19]. - The recovery pace of midstream industries like steel and chemicals may lag behind due to their dependence on the real estate market and overall demand [19].

Group 1: Regulatory and Industry Developments - The State Council's Food Safety Office is actively promoting the establishment of national standards for pre-prepared dishes and advocating for clear labeling in the catering sector to better protect consumer rights [1] - The market supervision administration reported that the box office for the film "731" exceeded 1.067 billion yuan, making it the box office champion for September in Chinese film history [1] Group 2: Company News - Sunflower announced plans for a major asset restructuring involving the acquisition of 100% of Zhangzhou Xipu Material Technology Co., Ltd. and 40% of Zhejiang Beid Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., with the stock set to resume trading on September 22 [3] - Guanzhong Ecological announced that its controlling shareholder is planning a change in control, leading to a suspension of trading for its stock and convertible bonds starting September 22 [4] - Taimushi's stock has experienced significant price fluctuations, with a cumulative increase of over 20% in the last two trading days, indicating potential market volatility [4][5] - Zhenlei Technology reported that its chairman is currently under investigation, but the company's control has not changed as of the announcement date [5] Group 3: Market Insights - Dongwu Securities suggests a market rebalancing in Q4, with a shift towards cyclical stocks and a focus on AI-related sectors, recommending investments in AI data center infrastructure and applications [6] - Huatai Securities maintains that gold has long-term investment value due to ongoing economic concerns and geopolitical risks, suggesting a buy on dips strategy [6]