昨晚给大家写了《电力股为何大跌？》的原因，今天仍然有资金从电力行业出逃导致电力股股价继续下跌，华能国际-3.8%，华电国际-2.4%，国电电 力-3%。 昨晚有朋友问了，电价下跌，利好谁呢？非常好的问题，而且这里面也确实蕴含非常巨大的投资机会，今晚我们就来聊一聊。 首先，对居民是没啥影响的，居民用电一直都很便宜，电价下跌主要影响的是工业。哪个行业平时用电多了，那么电价下跌受益自然最多。 接着利好是钢铁行业。相比传统高炉炼钢（烧焦炭），电弧炉炼钢主要消耗电力和废钢。但钢铁行业的主要问题是下游主要需求---地产低迷。钢铁主要用于 房子的主体结构建设。但由于过去几年，全国房屋新开工面积从高峰期腰斩，导致用钢量需求大幅减少。这些年靠着造船、新能源、钢结构厂房等新兴制造 业拉动部分钢铁需求，对冲地产需求下降的影响，但地产行业占钢铁整体需求依然有25%左右。 电价下降对其他行业的影响就比较少了，虽然电费成本也是减少的，但电价并不是其他行业的主要成本。就好像我们公司，主要的经营成本是佐罗的工资， 而不是电费 PS：以上内容我让AI做了个总结图，方便大家理解 补充其他信息： 1、传近期特斯拉机器人的供应商们赶往美国，与特斯拉 ...

12月中旬，电石价格持续下跌。其中乌海地区个别厂家出厂价在近一周内跌幅达100元/吨。供需层面来 看，受前期电石价格持续上行的原因，电石厂家开工积极性提升，市场货源供应增多，厂家库存压力增 大。下游PVC行业运行弱稳，行业开工下降，对电石需求一般。 2026年价格方面来看，电石价格受多种因素影响，包括原材料成本、生产成本、下游需求、政策调控 等。电石价格呈现稳中偏弱的态势，主要受到下游需求疲软和上游原材料价格下行的影响。2026年，随 着下游PVC、BDO等行业的产能扩张和需求增长，电石价格或保持震荡筑底态势运行。2026年电石市 场将处于一个复杂的博弈之中：向上有顶：主要下游PVC和BDO自身盈利困难，缺乏为高价电石买单 的能力，这构成了电石价格上行的天花板。向下有底：能源成本高企和持续的供给侧约束，为电石价格 提供了坚实的成本底。中间波动：需求端的季节性变化、区域性的电力政策或环保限产、以及BDO新 产能投产的节奏，都会不断扰动脆弱的供需平衡，造成价格的频繁震荡。因此，电石价格大概率将在这 一上、下限之间反复波动，以寻找新的市场均衡点，即"震荡筑底"。（金联创塑料分析师：王悦） 展望未来，2026年供需层 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that liquidity easing and supply-side constraints will continue to be the main investment themes in the energy and materials sectors, benefiting precious metals, industrial metals, and certain chemicals like chromium and refrigerants [1] Group 1: Market Overview - From early 2025 to the present, the non-ferrous metal index has significantly outperformed the broader market, primarily due to strong performances in precious and rare metals [2] - Basic chemicals and steel indices have performed similarly to the market, while coal and oil & petrochemical indices have underperformed [2] Group 2: Precious Metals and Copper - Despite a recent high-level pullback in gold prices, the ongoing Fed rate cut cycle is expected to support gold prices, with a projected range of $4,000 to $5,000 per ounce for 2026 [3] - Silver is anticipated to have strong price elasticity due to an expanding supply-demand gap, with a projected price range of $50 to $60 per ounce for 2026 [3] - Copper remains a key investment direction in the metals sector, with a projected price range of $10,000 to $12,000 per ton for 2026, benefiting from liquidity easing and tightening supply [3] Group 3: Supply Constraints and Chemical Products - Supply-side constraints are expected to strengthen, with aluminum supply growth slowing and cobalt prices likely to rise due to severe supply shortages [4] - The projected price for aluminum in 2026 is set at 21,500 RMB per ton, while cobalt is expected to range between 400,000 to 450,000 RMB per ton [4] - Chromium and refrigerants are also expected to see price increases due to tight supply conditions influenced by environmental regulations [4] Group 4: Strategic Metals and US-China Relations - The ongoing US-China geopolitical tensions are enhancing the investment value of strategic metals, particularly rare earths and tungsten, with stable demand growth in defense and advanced manufacturing sectors [5] - The projected price range for praseodymium-neodymium oxide in 2026 is expected to rise to 550,000 to 650,000 RMB per ton, while tungsten is projected to be between 300,000 to 350,000 RMB per ton [5] Group 5: High Demand for Lithium and Potash - Lithium prices are expected to rise due to stronger-than-expected demand from energy storage batteries, with a projected price range of 80,000 to 100,000 RMB per ton for 2026 [6] - Potash prices are also expected to increase, driven by delayed production expansions in major producing regions and strong demand growth in Southeast Asia [6] Group 6: Coal, Steel, Silicon, and Oil - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to support price recoveries in coal, steel, and silicon materials, with projections for slight price increases in thermal coal, coking coal, and silicon materials in 2026 [7] - The steel industry is anticipated to reach a turning point in 2025, with ongoing supply constraints and improved profit distribution trends [7] - Oil supply and demand are expected to shift from a loose to a balanced state, with Brent crude oil prices projected to rise to $65 to $70 per barrel [7]

Core Viewpoint - The cyclical sectors, particularly non-ferrous metals, have shown strong performance in 2023 due to supply-side constraints, expectations of global liquidity easing, and domestic "anti-involution" policies driving demand [7][8]. Factors Driving Cyclical Stock Performance - Domestic economic recovery and potential global monetary easing have positively impacted cyclical assets [8]. - Supply-side constraints and industrial cycle expectations have led to strong performance in non-ferrous metals like copper and aluminum [8]. - Strategic small metal varieties, such as rare earths, have seen optimistic market expectations due to policy and supply-side reductions [8]. - Traditional industries like coal, steel, and chemicals have benefited from the "anti-involution" policy, resulting in structural rebounds [8][11]. Valuation and Market Sentiment - Despite significant price increases in non-ferrous metals, valuations remain reasonable, with some stocks still undervalued [12][13]. - The recovery in company earnings has provided a solid foundation for stock price increases, with overall valuations still within a reasonable range [12][13]. - The cyclical industry is in a recovery phase, with many companies experiencing high growth rates from a low base, but not yet at peak profitability [14][15]. Investment Strategy and Focus - The investment strategy is leaning towards a pro-cyclical approach, focusing on sectors with strong demand logic [17]. - Key sectors for investment include industrial metals, small metals, and precious metals, with traditional cyclical leaders also being prioritized [17]. - A balanced approach of defensive and offensive strategies is recommended, with a focus on stocks that have strong fundamentals and reasonable valuations [17][18]. Challenges Ahead - Potential challenges for the cyclical industry include demand-side risks, particularly in sectors like copper and aluminum, which are closely tied to economic expectations [19]. - The recovery pace of midstream industries like steel and chemicals may lag behind due to their dependence on the real estate market and overall demand [19].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the anticipation of supply-side constraints being implemented, which is expected to impact the steel industry positively [1] Price Data Summary - The SW Steel Index is at 2,169, with a weekly increase of 1.8% and a year-to-date increase of 3.2% [3] - The price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) is 3,150 CNY/ton, showing a weekly decrease of 1.6% and a year-to-date decrease of 7.6% [3] - The price of hot-rolled coil is 3,200 CNY/ton, with a weekly decrease of 1.2% and a year-to-date decrease of 6.4% [3] - The iron ore price index is at 98 USD/ton, reflecting a weekly increase of 1.1% and a year-to-date decrease of 2.0% [3] Inventory Summary - The total social inventory of five major steel products is 1,032 million tons, with a weekly decrease of 4.7% and a year-to-date increase of 1.36% [5] - The total inventory at steel mills is 443 million tons, with a weekly decrease of 1.6% and a year-to-date increase of 26.5% [5] - The port inventory of iron ore is 14,235 million tons, with no weekly change and a year-to-date increase of 4.2% [5] Supply and Demand Summary - The weekly output of five major steel products is projected to be 1,000 million tons [9] - The average daily molten iron production is expected to be around 230 million tons [9]