Group 1 - A-shares have accelerated upward, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking the high of 3731.69 points from February 2021, reaching 3741.29 points, marking a new high since August 2015 [1] - Since the beginning of 2025, global stock markets have shown strong performance, with the Korean Composite Index rising by 32.4%, the Hang Seng Index by 25.6%, and the German DAX by 22.1% [1] - The current low-risk interest rate environment, with the 10-year government bond yield between 1.65% and 1.80%, has driven A-share market performance, supported by dividend advantages and policy-driven capital inflows [1] Group 2 - The dynamic price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the CSI 300 Index and the SSE 50 Index are currently 13.5 times and 11.6 times, respectively, which are at the 75% to 85% historical percentile levels [2] - Compared to major overseas indices, A-share core indices have relatively low absolute P/E ratios, with the S&P 500 at 28.6 times and the FTSE 100 at 20 times [2] - The ChiNext Index and the STAR 50 Index have P/E ratios of 37.1 times and 149.5 times, respectively, indicating that domestic technology and growth sectors do not have a significant valuation advantage compared to overseas counterparts [2] Group 3 - The risk premium for the CSI 300 Index is currently at 5.6%, which is at a high historical percentile of 64.7%, indicating a favorable investment return compared to government bonds [3] - The dividend yield for the CSI 300 Index is 2.69%, which is at the 68.1% historical percentile, suggesting attractive dividend returns for core A-share assets [3] - Historical trends show that a declining dividend yield often accompanies a strengthening market, and the current yield remains significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield [4] Group 4 - The current low interest rate environment enhances the attractiveness of A-shares for institutional investors seeking stable returns, with potential for significant upward movement in the CSI 300 Index if valuations align with overseas markets [4] - If the dividend yield of the CSI 300 Index approaches the current risk-free rate of around 1.75%, it could correspond to an index level of 6500 points, indicating substantial upside potential [4] - The analysis suggests that the current A-share market rally is primarily driven by valuation, with strong dividend appeal and policy support for capital inflows [4]

对"7亏2平1赚"这个说法非常质疑，但绝大部分都会信用，感觉这像是某些机构想让投资者心里沾沾自 喜而有意搞出来的说法。 lookniu770 现在中证2000创新高的时候你来讨论盈亏比，等到潮水推去的时候才知道谁买单。 FirePlan 这东西有人专门研究，清华大学2022年的文章Wealth redistribution in bubbles and crashes，统计了大量的 账户，结论是最有钱的0.5%的交易者赚了2500亿，没钱的大部分交易者（占比85%）正好差不多赔了 2500亿。统计时间是2014年7月到2015年年底，一波牛市的开始到结束。 老婆饼 说明现在是牛市。 宿不移 721是从一个较长的时间，比如十年，或至少两个牛熊周期以便更多的排除运气因素。并且数字也只是 概数，表示大多数。比如百花齐放，你偏要说不对，这公园里总共也就60多种植物，哪来的百花？斩获 无数，你说不对，总共才5万敌军，怎能用无数？这样就无法交流了。 再说平，也没个准确说法。十年前10万，现在依然10万，算平还是亏？收益率与N年定期持平，算平还 是亏？721针对的是股票，风险溢价率至少得5%吧，收益率小于十年间国债平均收益 ...