[Table_Page] 宏观经济|定期报告 2026 年 2 月 1 日 证券研究报告 1 / 27 972918116公共联系人2026-02-01 17:17:37 [Table_Title] 全球叙事切换：杯弓蛇影还是未雨绸缪？ 宏观周度述评系列（2026.01.26-01.31） [报告摘要 Table_Summary：] | [Table_Author] 分析师： | 郭磊 | | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 | | | SFC CE No. BNY419 | | | 021-38003572 | | | guolei@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 陈礼清 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260523080003 | | | 021-38003809 | | | chenliqing@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 陈嘉荔 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260523120005 | | | 021-38003674 | | | gfchenjiali@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 钟林楠 | | | SAC 执证 ...

广发宏观周度述评（第49期） 广发宏观周度述评 （ 第1-48期，复盘必读 ） 内容 第一，全球叙事切换：杯弓蛇影还是未雨绸缪 ？ 2025 年全球宏观面有五大核心宏观叙事：美元信用弱化、黄金是新一轮货币体系的定价锚、全球产业链供应链重 塑、人工智能是新一轮产业链的基础设施、有色金属是 AI 时代的原油。这一系列叙事带来贵金属、有色金属、新兴市场、 AI 产业链等资产的领先表现。 2026 年 1 月底，特朗普宣布将提名沃什担任下届美联储主席，引发了贵金属的剧烈调整。 我们理解这一反应背后的逻辑是：美国为推动再工业化和 AI 领先而产生大规模财政赤字，这逻辑上一则带来美元信用下降；二则需要美联储通过宽松政策来容纳 债务，即所谓的 " 美联储看跌期权 " （ Fed Put ），于是市场定价对冲美元资产风险（新兴市场）、信用货币受损（贵金属）、新产业和资源品竞争（ AI 产业 链、有色金属）。沃什的政策倾向会让这一链条存在明显的隐忧：市场假设美联储是被动与财政联动，但沃什的理念是货币是货币、财政是财政，货币要有货币纪 律、财政要有财政纪律。沃什主张缩表，不再主动压低收益率来帮助政府廉价借贷，这在逻辑上有助于重塑 ...

Group 1 - Ukrainian President Zelensky has made a significant compromise by accepting a bilateral security guarantee instead of direct NATO membership, which is a core demand of Ukraine but lacks support from the US and some European countries [2] - The ongoing discussions between the US and Ukraine have shown "significant progress," focusing on the "peace plan," economic agenda, territorial issues, and frozen Russian central bank assets [2] Group 2 - The US has announced the lifting of sanctions on Belarusian potash fertilizer, which had been imposed in response to alleged election manipulation, significantly impacting Belarus's economy [4] - The discussions between US officials and Belarusian President Lukashenko have been described as productive, marking an important milestone in US-Belarus relations [6] Group 3 - A major shift is anticipated in the Federal Reserve's operations, with indications that the Fed may restart asset purchases to support US Treasury spending and stabilize market fluctuations [8] - The evolving relationship between the US Treasury and the Federal Reserve suggests a merging of their balance sheets, with the Treasury Secretary playing a crucial role in this new structure [8] Group 4 - Gold prices have shown strong performance, with a significant inflow of $5.2 billion into global physical gold ETFs in November, marking six consecutive months of inflows [10] - The recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold, contributing to its price support [11] - Long-term factors driving gold prices include central bank de-dollarization and ongoing geopolitical conflicts, with expectations of continued interest in gold from global investors [12]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in spot gold prices are influenced by easing US-China relations, mutual tariff reductions, and political developments in the US, leading to a marginal stabilization in gold prices despite ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties [1][2]. Group 1: Economic and Policy Environment - The US government shutdown may lead to a lack of critical economic data, creating uncertainty for Federal Reserve decision-making [1]. - The potential for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut cycle, combined with increasing global macroeconomic policy uncertainties and a trend towards de-dollarization, is expected to support gold prices in the medium to long term [1][2]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Investment Trends - Trump's fluctuating policy positions have heightened market uncertainty and increased risk aversion, providing additional support for gold prices [1]. - The recent signing of the GENIUS Act by Trump, which legalizes stablecoins, could have lasting implications for US dollar credibility and, consequently, gold prices [2]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The backdrop of monetary expansion and fiscal deficit monetization challenges the US dollar credit system, while global geopolitical tensions drive diversification in asset reserves, increasing demand for gold as a safe asset [2]. - The trend of de-dollarization may position gold as a new pricing anchor, potentially enhancing the upward momentum for precious metals [2].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.46%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.05%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.29% [1] - Key sectors that led the gains included precious metals, non-ferrous metals, innovative pharmaceuticals, CPO, and storage chips [1] Gold and Mining ETFs Performance - The Gold Stock ETF (517400) closed with a significant increase of 8.41% [2] - The Mining ETF (561330) also saw a notable rise, closing up by 4.04% [3] Reasons for Market Uptrend - The anticipation of interest rate cuts has been a driving factor for the market's upward movement [4] - On August 28, Federal Reserve Governor Waller made dovish comments, indicating support for a 25 basis point rate cut in September and potential further cuts in the next three to six months if economic data shows significant weakness [5] - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have increased due to Trump's interventions, which may lead to a more dovish stance from the Fed [5] Precious Metals Outlook - In a loose monetary environment, there is optimism for precious metals and resource stocks [6] - The demand for gold as a safe asset is expected to rise due to challenges to the dollar credit system and ongoing geopolitical tensions [6] - China's central bank has been increasing its gold reserves, with the latest data showing a rise to 73.96 million ounces as of the end of July, marking the ninth consecutive month of increases [6] Industrial Metals and Other Resources - The second half of the year may see limited deterioration in supply-demand dynamics for industrial metals, supported by anticipated Fed rate cuts and domestic stimulus policies [7] - The copper consumption off-season is nearing its end, and pre-holiday stocking may provide price support [7] - The outlook for aluminum remains strong due to limited impact from U.S. tariffs and fundamental support [7] Investment Opportunities - Investors are encouraged to consider the Mining ETF (561330) and the Non-Ferrous 60 ETF (159881), which track indices focused on the non-ferrous metals sector [8] - The Mining ETF focuses on companies with non-ferrous metal resources, highlighting the value of domestic mineral resources amid global competition [8]