Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in spot gold prices are influenced by easing US-China relations, mutual tariff reductions, and political developments in the US, leading to a marginal stabilization in gold prices despite ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties [1][2]. Group 1: Economic and Policy Environment - The US government shutdown may lead to a lack of critical economic data, creating uncertainty for Federal Reserve decision-making [1]. - The potential for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut cycle, combined with increasing global macroeconomic policy uncertainties and a trend towards de-dollarization, is expected to support gold prices in the medium to long term [1][2]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Investment Trends - Trump's fluctuating policy positions have heightened market uncertainty and increased risk aversion, providing additional support for gold prices [1]. - The recent signing of the GENIUS Act by Trump, which legalizes stablecoins, could have lasting implications for US dollar credibility and, consequently, gold prices [2]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The backdrop of monetary expansion and fiscal deficit monetization challenges the US dollar credit system, while global geopolitical tensions drive diversification in asset reserves, increasing demand for gold as a safe asset [2]. - The trend of de-dollarization may position gold as a new pricing anchor, potentially enhancing the upward momentum for precious metals [2].

Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - As of October 8, London spot gold closed at $4040.42 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of $281.64 per ounce since September 26, representing a 7.49% rise [1] - The price of gold reached a historical high of $4059.31 per ounce during the National Day holiday, with a low of $3819.10 per ounce [1] - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has heightened macroeconomic uncertainty, leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold [1][9] Group 2: U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for September was reported at 49.1, indicating resilience in manufacturing despite a decline in new orders [2] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model indicates a projected annualized growth rate of 3.8% for Q3 [3] - The ADP reported a decrease of 3,200 jobs in September, falling short of market expectations, reflecting a sluggish labor market [3][4] Group 3: Political and Economic Uncertainty - The U.S. government shutdown, which began on October 1, has resulted from political disagreements over budget issues, particularly concerning healthcare subsidies [5][6] - The shutdown has led to delays in the release of key economic data, including the September non-farm payroll report, contributing to market uncertainty [7] - Political instability in France, highlighted by the resignation of Prime Minister Le Cornu, may also impact financial markets [8] Group 4: Long-term Outlook for Gold - The combination of a potential Fed rate cut cycle, increasing macroeconomic policy uncertainty, and a global trend towards "de-dollarization" is expected to support gold prices in the medium to long term [1][9] - Central banks, including China's, continue to increase gold reserves, indicating a sustained demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [11]

Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - As of October 8, London spot gold closed at $4040.42 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of $281.64 per ounce since September 26, representing a rise of 7.49% [1] - The recent surge in gold prices was driven by the U.S. government shutdown, which has heightened macroeconomic uncertainty and increased demand for safe-haven assets [1][9] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the Israel-Palestine conflict, and the trend of "de-dollarization" globally are expected to support gold prices in the medium to long term [9][11] Group 2: U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for September was reported at 49.1, indicating resilience in manufacturing, although new orders showed a decline [2] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model indicates a projected annualized GDP growth rate of 3.8% for Q3, while consumer spending remains robust with a 3.2% growth forecast [3] - Job market indicators show a mixed picture, with the ADP reporting a decrease in employment of 3,200 jobs in September, below market expectations [3][4] Group 3: Political and Economic Uncertainty - The U.S. government has been shut down since October 1 due to budget disagreements, which has led to delays in key economic data releases, further contributing to market uncertainty [5][7] - Political instability in France, highlighted by the resignation of Prime Minister Le Cornu, adds to the uncertainty in European markets [8] - The ongoing political polarization in the U.S. raises concerns about fiscal sustainability and could lead to prolonged market disruptions [7][9] Group 4: Federal Reserve Outlook - Market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve have increased, with a nearly 95% probability of a cut in October, driven by the government shutdown and labor market slowdown [6][9] - Some Federal Reserve officials express concerns about potential inflationary pressures, particularly in the services sector, which may influence future monetary policy decisions [6][9] Group 5: Central Bank Gold Purchases - China's central bank continues to increase its gold reserves, reaching 7,406 million ounces by the end of September, marking the eleventh consecutive month of gold accumulation [11] - The trend of central banks purchasing gold is expected to continue, driven by the need for asset diversification amid geopolitical and economic uncertainties [11]

Group 1: Gold Market Overview - As of last Friday (September 26), London spot gold closed at $3,758.78 per ounce, with a weekly increase of $74.13 per ounce, representing a 2.01% rise. The gold price reached a high of $3,791.08 and a low of $3,683.28 during the week [1] - The first interest rate cut has been implemented, and although there are differing opinions among Federal Reserve officials, the overall stance remains dovish, with expectations for further rate cuts [1][5] - Geopolitical risks are increasing, and the U.S. government faces a potential short-term shutdown, which may drive gold prices higher [1][5] Group 2: Economic Data and Market Dynamics - In the U.S., the Markit manufacturing PMI for September fell to 52, slightly below the expected 52.2, while the services PMI was at 53.9, also below the expected 54. The composite PMI initial value was 53.6, indicating a relatively high level [2] - The second revision of Q2 GDP in the U.S. was adjusted upward by 0.5 percentage points to 3.8%, with consumption and investment also revised upward, showing stronger economic resilience than previously expected [2] - The unemployment claims decreased to 218,000, below the expected 235,000, indicating a stable job market [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Outlook - Federal Reserve officials have shown a divide in their views, with some calling for significant rate cuts, while others do not support further reductions. The overall sentiment leans towards the necessity of additional cuts due to increasing risks in the job market [3][4] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model indicates a projected GDP growth rate of 3.9% for Q3, reflecting strong consumer spending and improving real estate data [3] Group 4: Geopolitical and Policy Impacts - The potential government shutdown in the U.S. could negatively impact GDP by approximately 0.1 percentage points per week, but most losses are expected to be recouped once the government reopens [4] - Trump's policies, including tariffs, have contributed to inflationary pressures and increased market uncertainty, which may support gold prices [6] - The recent signing of the GENIUS Act legalizing stablecoins could have lasting effects on dollar credit, potentially influencing gold prices depending on the stability of these digital currencies [6] Group 5: Long-term Gold Outlook - The ongoing trend of "de-dollarization" and increased demand for gold as a safe asset is expected to provide upward momentum for gold prices [7] - China's central bank has continued to increase its gold reserves, reaching 74.02 million ounces by the end of August, indicating a sustained trend in central bank gold purchases [7]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have shown an upward trend, reaching a new high, driven by factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, geopolitical risks, and potential U.S. government shutdowns [1][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of September 26, gold prices closed at $3,758.78 per ounce, with a weekly increase of $74.13 per ounce, marking a 2.01% rise [1]. - The Federal Reserve has initiated a rate-cutting cycle, with officials expressing differing views but leaning towards dovish stances, which supports the outlook for gold prices [1][3]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Russia, NATO, and conflicts in the Middle East, are contributing to the upward pressure on gold prices [5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy shows resilience, with the second quarter GDP revised up to 3.8%, driven by stronger consumer and investment growth [2]. - The U.S. unemployment claims decreased to 218,000, indicating a stable job market, which may influence the Federal Reserve's future decisions [3]. - The potential U.S. government shutdown could impact GDP, with estimates suggesting a 0.1 percentage point drag per week [4]. Group 3: Long-term Trends - The trend of "de-dollarization" globally is expected to support gold as a new pricing anchor, increasing demand for gold as a safe asset [7]. - Central banks, including China's, continue to increase gold reserves, with China's reserves reaching 74.02 million ounces, reflecting a sustained trend of gold accumulation [7]. - The introduction of stablecoin regulations may influence the demand for gold, depending on the stability and credibility of the U.S. dollar [6].

Market Overview - As of last Friday (August 1), London spot gold closed at $3362.64 per ounce, with a weekly increase of $26.42 per ounce, representing a 0.79% rise [1] - The highest gold price reached $3362.64 per ounce, while the lowest dipped to $3275.05 per ounce during the week [1] - The market is currently experiencing fluctuations in gold prices, with potential benefits if a rate cut is initiated [1] Economic Data - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for July was below expectations, with an increase of 73,000 jobs compared to the anticipated 104,000 [2] - Significant downward revisions were made to the May and June data, totaling a reduction of 258,000 jobs [2] - The labor force participation rate in July was 62.2%, lower than expected, while the unemployment rate was 4.2%, in line with expectations but higher than the previous value [2] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate at 4.25%-4.5% during the July FOMC meeting, with a hawkish tone from Chairman Powell [4] - The Fed's statement acknowledged economic uncertainty and the need to monitor inflation risks, while not providing a clear response regarding a potential rate cut in September [4] Long-term Trends - The trend of "de-dollarization" globally is expected to support gold prices, as central banks continue to increase their gold reserves [7] - China's central bank reported an increase in gold reserves to 73.9 million ounces, marking the eighth consecutive month of gold accumulation [7] - The potential impact of the U.S. government's legalization of stablecoins may influence the demand for gold as a hedge against currency depreciation [6]

Group 1: Market Overview - As of last Friday (August 1), London spot gold closed at $3362.64 per ounce, with a weekly increase of $26.42 per ounce, representing a 0.79% rise [1] - The gold price fluctuated last week, reaching a high of $3362.64 per ounce and a low of $3275.05 per ounce [1] - The market is currently experiencing expectations of a rate cut in September due to disappointing non-farm payroll data, which has led to a decline in the dollar and U.S. stocks, subsequently boosting gold prices [1][5] Group 2: Economic Data - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for July showed an increase of 73,000 jobs, falling short of the expected 104,000, with significant downward revisions for May and June, totaling a reduction of 258,000 jobs [2] - The labor force participation rate in July was 62.2%, below expectations and previous values, while the unemployment rate was 4.2%, meeting expectations but higher than the previous figure [2] - The U.S. second-quarter GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3%, exceeding expectations of 2.6% and the previous value of 0.5% [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.5% during the July FOMC meeting, with a hawkish tone from Chairman Powell emphasizing the need for more data before making decisions on rate cuts [4] - The Fed's statement acknowledged economic uncertainty and risks, particularly in the labor market, while maintaining a focus on price stability and maximum employment [4] Group 4: Long-term Trends - The trend of "de-dollarization" globally is expected to support gold prices, as central banks, including China's, continue to increase their gold reserves [7] - China's central bank reported a gold reserve of 73.9 million ounces as of the end of June, marking an increase of 70,000 ounces, continuing a trend of accumulation for eight consecutive months [7] - The potential impact of the U.S. government's legalization of stablecoins may influence the dollar's credibility and subsequently affect gold prices, depending on the development of credit risks associated with stablecoins [6][7]