全球央行去美元化

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香港第一金PPLI:黄金暴拉破3700创历史新高!美联储决议前夕的多头狂欢与操作全攻略
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-17 04:10
今日操作建议与关键点位 在当前高位震荡格局下,操作上需要更加谨慎。日内关键阻力位在3702-3705美元区域,如果突破则可能进一步上攻3715-3725美元阻力区。下方支撑首先关 注3680美元,其次是3670-3674美元区域。操作上建议采用回落做多为主思路,可在3680-3690美元区域轻仓做多,止损设在3670下方,目标看向3700-3710美 元。对于激进型交易者,如果金价反弹至3705-3715美元区域且出现受阻信号,可以轻仓尝试短空,止损设在3720上方,目标回看3680-3690美元。需要注意 的是,在美联储决议前,市场波动可能加剧,务必控制仓位大小,严格设置止损,避免意外波动造成重大损失。 明日走势预测与后市展望 明日黄金走势几乎完全取决于美联储利率决议的结果。如果美联储如预期降息25个基点并释放鸽派信号,金价很可能突破3725美元阻力,向3740-3750美元 区域发起冲击。如果意外降息50个基点,金价可能出现爆炸性上涨,直接挑战3750-3800美元区域。然而需要警惕"买预期卖事实"的风险,如果降息落地但 政策指引不及市场预期的鸽派,或者点阵图显示未来降息路径更为平缓,金价可能出现短线获利 ...
伊以冲突再升级,撩拨大宗商品琴弦
和讯· 2025-06-18 10:23
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the Israel-Iran conflict, on international oil and gold prices, highlighting the potential for price fluctuations due to supply concerns and market sentiment [1][2]. Oil Market Analysis - Since the onset of the Israel-Iran conflict on June 13, international oil prices have risen, with Brent crude oil prices increasing by over 9% [2]. - Concerns regarding oil supply stem from Iran's current production of approximately 3.4 million barrels per day and an export volume of about 1.5 million barrels per day, predominantly to China [2]. - The potential for conflict escalation raises fears of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20 million barrels of oil are transported daily, accounting for 75% of oil transport in the region [2]. - Despite these concerns, the global oil supply situation remains manageable, with OPEC in a production increase cycle and an estimated 4-5 million barrels per day of idle capacity available [2][3]. - Long-term projections suggest that international oil prices may stabilize around $65 per barrel, influenced by inflationary pressures in the U.S. and geopolitical dynamics [3][4]. Gold Market Analysis - International gold prices have surged due to the heightened tensions in the Middle East, currently hovering around $3,400 per ounce [5]. - Over the past month, gold prices have rebounded from below $3,200 per ounce, with a potential challenge to the previous high of $3,500 per ounce [5]. - The increase in gold prices is attributed to rising risk aversion amid geopolitical instability and a declining U.S. dollar index, which enhances the valuation of dollar-denominated gold [5]. - Long-term trends indicate that gold prices are influenced by the global monetary system, central bank policies, and inflation expectations, with potential for prices to reach $3,700-$3,800 per ounce if they surpass the $3,500 mark [6].
ETO Markets市场洞察:黄金多头惨遭“空袭”,CPI数据或成“救命稻草”?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-13 10:21
在经历前一日的剧烈波动后,国际金价于本周二展现韧性反弹。现货黄金价格自隔夜低点3207.73美元/ 盎司企稳回升,盘中一度触及3260.47美元/盎司,日内涨幅达0.8%,目前围绕3250美元/盎司关口展开震 荡。这一波动轨迹不仅反映了市场情绪的快速切换,更揭示了地缘政治与宏观经济数据交织下的复杂博 弈。ETO Markets分析师团队指出,当前黄金市场正处于多空力量重新定价的关键阶段,投资者需警惕 短期波动中的结构性风险。 尽管贸易局势缓和削弱了避险买盘,但黄金市场迅速显现逢低承接力量。ETO Markets研究团队认为, 当前反弹主要受三大因素驱动: 经济增长预期修正:关税削减或缓解全球供应链压力,但欧美制造业PMI持续疲软显示经济复苏仍需货 币宽松支持,限制了金价下行空间。 美元技术性回调:美债收益率曲线陡峭化趋势放缓,叠加美联储官员对降息时点的谨慎表态,美元指数 短期承压,间接提振黄金。 通胀数据扰动:市场对美联储政策路径的预期持续摇摆,CPI数据将成为验证"通胀粘性"与否的关键变 量。 贸易格局突变:避险资产遭遇"逆风" 本轮金价剧烈震荡的核心导火索,源于中美贸易关系的突破性进展。日内瓦经贸磋商中, ...