黑天鹅理论

Search documents
比麦肯锡更落地,比巴菲特更懂创造价值的公司和模式是谁?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-09 18:17
| 关键财务指标 | | | 1991—2000 2001—2010 2011—2020 2021—2024 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 企业价值与营业 收入比 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 7.5 | | 企业价值倍数 | 11.5 | 13.0 | 14.3 | 22.4 | | 市盈率(倍) | 26.5 | 23.5 | 23.6 | 36.8 | | 毛利率(%) | 32.0 | 43.0 | 54.0 | 60.0 | | 息税前利润率(%) | 11.0 | 15.0 | 17.0 | 搜狐写句单仁行 | 在2024年《财富》世界500强榜单,美的集团位列第246位,而丹纳赫集团排名第161位。 在30多年时间中,丹纳赫保持了持续的增长,毛利率净利率翻倍,连续30年自由现金流超过净利润,每股收益平均每年实现两位数的增长,年均复合股东 回报率高达22%。 如果不是深入研究美的公司的商业系统MBS,我可能就错过了美的学习对象,美国丹纳赫这家公司。 这样的表现不仅远超其他多元化集团通用电气、霍尼韦尔和3M等,也超过了股神巴菲特执掌的伯克希尔。 ...
十一长假充电指南:5类投资好书助你逆袭“财富认知”
雪球· 2025-10-03 07:58
Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of financial literacy and developing a proper money mindset as the first step towards wealth freedom, especially for beginners who feel they have "no money to manage" [4][5][6] - It introduces engaging and easy-to-understand books like "The Rich Dad Poor Dad" and "The Little Money Dog" to help readers build a new understanding of wealth and financial management [5][6] - The article highlights the significance of value investing, founded by Benjamin Graham, which focuses on finding stocks priced below their intrinsic value for long-term gains [8][9] Group 2 - "The Intelligent Investor" is presented as a foundational text in value investing, introducing the concept of "margin of safety" to protect against market volatility [9] - "Warren Buffett's Letters to Shareholders" provides insights into Buffett's investment philosophy, emphasizing the importance of long-term competitive advantages and intrinsic value over short-term price fluctuations [10] - Practical methods for applying value investing principles in stock selection and asset allocation are discussed, including industry analysis and financial metrics [11][12] Group 3 - The article discusses the basics of technical analysis, which helps investors make informed decisions based on historical price and volume data [15][16] - "Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques" is recommended for understanding market trends and buy/sell signals through candlestick patterns [16] - "Market Trend Analysis" is highlighted as a comprehensive guide to identifying market trends and managing risk through various technical indicators [17][18] Group 4 - The importance of a systematic trading approach is emphasized, with "The Turtle Trading Rules" providing a framework for disciplined trading based on clear entry and exit rules [20] - "The Simplest Thing in Investing" offers localized strategies for the A-share market, focusing on finding undervalued stocks and understanding pricing power [21] Group 5 - The article stresses the psychological aspects of investing, highlighting the need for a rational mindset to navigate market volatility [22][23] - "Poor Charlie's Almanack" is recommended for its insights into multi-disciplinary thinking and investment philosophy [24] - "The Most Important Thing" by Howard Marks emphasizes understanding market cycles and risk management as key components of successful investing [25] Group 6 - The article addresses the impact of human psychology on investment decisions, suggesting strategies to overcome emotional biases [26][27] - "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" illustrates the influence of fear and greed on trading behavior through the life of Jesse Livermore [27] - "Fooled by Randomness" warns against cognitive biases and emphasizes the importance of risk management in unpredictable markets [28] Group 7 - The article provides a reading strategy for efficiently absorbing investment knowledge during holidays, suggesting a mix of short and long reading sessions [30][31] - It encourages practical application of learned concepts by identifying actionable insights from each book read [34][35] - The importance of verifying investment theories against current market conditions is highlighted to avoid blind adherence to strategies [36]
现场聆听塔勒布、罗杰斯洞见!7月新加坡调研行邀您探访知名金融机构
华尔街见闻· 2025-07-08 10:44
Group 1 - Singapore has become a key destination for enterprises and individuals looking to expand internationally, with foreign direct investment (FDI) reaching a record high of $143.4 billion in 2024 [1] - Numerous prominent Chinese companies, including Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance, and Ant Group, have established a presence in Singapore to access the ASEAN market of nearly 700 million people [1] - The number of family offices in Singapore has surged by over 40% within a year, surpassing 2,000, attracting global billionaires such as Ray Dalio, Sergey Brin, and Mukesh Ambani [1] Group 2 - Singapore is recognized as a leading hub in financial technology and digital assets, providing unique value in global asset allocation [2] - A global research trip to Singapore is organized to explore the advantages of Singapore in global asset allocation and to understand the latest trends in financial technology and digital assets [2] - The trip includes visits to major financial institutions and fintech companies, as well as interviews with key players in the industry [2] Group 3 - On August 1, a global wealth management summit hosted by Noah Holdings will feature insights from renowned financial experts, including Nassim Taleb and Jim Rogers [3] - The summit aims to provide a comprehensive examination of the financial market through discussions and networking opportunities with industry leaders [3]
现场聆听塔勒布、罗杰斯洞见!7月新加坡调研行邀您一起探访知名金融机构
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-07-07 11:21
Group 1 - Singapore is increasingly chosen by businesses and individuals as a key gateway for international expansion, particularly into the ASEAN market with a population of nearly 700 million [1] - In 2024, Singapore's foreign direct investment (FDI) is projected to reach a record high of $143.4 billion, ranking second globally only to the United States [1] - Major Chinese companies such as Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance, Ant Group, and Huawei Cloud have established a presence in Singapore [1] Group 2 - The number of family offices in Singapore has surged by over 40% within a year, surpassing 2,000, attracting global billionaires like Ray Dalio, Sergey Brin, and Mukesh Ambani [1] - Singapore is recognized as a leading hub for fintech and digital assets, providing unique value in global asset allocation [2] - A global research trip to Singapore is organized to explore its financial institutions and gain insights from prominent figures in finance, including Nassim Taleb and Jim Rogers [2]