上 市 公 司 商贸零售 2025 年 08 月 25 日 天虹股份 (002419) ——三大业态升级，AI 赋能数字化转型 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 | 市场数据： | 2025 年 08 月 25 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 5.93 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 6.60/3.93 | | 市净率 | 1.7 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 1.01 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 6,930 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,883.56/12,441.07 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | 08-26 09-26 10-26 11-26 12-26 01-26 02-26 03-26 04-26 05-26 06-26 07-26 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 天虹股份 沪深300指数 (收益率) 相关研究 《天虹股份（002419）点评：业态持续转 型升级，AI+零售技术迭代赋能》 2025/04/27 《天虹股份（002419）点评：24 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue growth slowdown in H1 2025, focusing on high-quality growth and improving gross margins in AI value-added services [4][5]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.078 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.8%, which is a slowdown compared to 2024 [4]. - AI retail solutions generated revenue of 490 million yuan, up 16.2% year-on-year, while AI retail value-added services reached 590 million yuan, growing 15.0% year-on-year [4]. - The company turned a profit in H1 2025 with a net profit of 62.174 million yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [6]. Group 2: Cost Management and Efficiency - The gross margin for AI value-added services improved to 13.7% in H1 2025 from 9.0% in H1 2024, despite a significant drop in revenue growth due to reduced labor outsourcing income [5]. - The company reduced R&D and administrative expense ratios to 17.6% and 12.9%, respectively, contributing to the improved net profit margin [6]. Group 3: Strategic Partnerships and Growth Initiatives - The company has been expanding its domestic and international partnerships, signing contracts with benchmark clients such as Shanghai Sugar and Wine Group and Xinjiang Huijia Times [7]. - Collaborations with retailers like Pang Donglai and Lawson are expected to enhance operational efficiency and accelerate customer acquisition [7].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 1.078 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.8%, although the growth rate has slowed compared to 2024 [1][2] Revenue Performance - AI retail solutions generated revenue of 490 million yuan, up 16.2% year-on-year, while AI retail value-added services brought in 590 million yuan, increasing by 15.0% year-on-year [1] - The revenue growth rate for AI value-added services significantly decreased due to a drop in labor outsourcing income and costs, but the gross margin improved to 13.7% from 9.0% in the previous year [1][2] Profitability - The company achieved a net profit of 62.174 million yuan, marking a turnaround from losses, with adjusted profit from continuing operations at 77.012 million yuan, a 152.5% increase year-on-year [2] - The net profit margin improved due to a reduction in R&D and administrative expense ratios, with R&D expense ratio at 17.6%, down 4.1 percentage points, and administrative expense ratio at 12.9%, down 1.3 percentage points [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company is expanding domestic and international collaborations, partnering with notable clients like Pang Donglai and Shanghai Sugar and Wine Group, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency and customer acquisition [2] - The implementation of AI productivity tools has led to significant cost reductions and efficiency improvements, contributing to the company's profitability [2] Future Outlook - The company maintains revenue forecasts of 2.17 billion yuan, 2.54 billion yuan, and 2.96 billion yuan for 2025-2027, respectively, while net profit forecasts have been adjusted upwards to 130 million yuan, 280 million yuan, and 420 million yuan for the same period [3] - The current price-to-sales ratios are projected at 4.4x, 3.7x, and 3.2x for 2025-2027, with a "buy" rating maintained [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected investment return exceeding 15% over the next 6-12 months [5][23]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 1.078 billion CNY in H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.8%, although the growth rate has slowed compared to 2024 [1]. - The revenue from AI retail solutions reached 490 million CNY, growing by 16.2%, while AI retail value-added services generated 590 million CNY, with a growth of 15.0% [1]. - The company focuses on high-quality growth, with an emphasis on cost reduction and efficiency improvement through AI productivity tools, leading to a significant decrease in expense ratios and a return to profitability [2][3]. Revenue and Profitability - The company reported a net profit of 62.17 million CNY in H1 2025, marking a turnaround from previous losses, with an adjusted profit of 77.01 million CNY, up 152.5% year-on-year [3]. - The gross margin for AI value-added services improved to 13.7% from 9.0% in H1 2024, while the gross margin for core AI retail solutions decreased to 68.3% from 76.8% due to increased costs associated with project deliveries [2]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 2.169 billion CNY, 2.542 billion CNY, and 2.960 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 16.7%, 17.2%, and 16.4% [4]. - The net profit projections for the same period have been revised upwards to 130 million CNY, 280 million CNY, and 419 million CNY, reflecting increases of 6.5%, 3.5%, and 2.7% respectively [4]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is actively expanding its domestic and international partnerships, including collaborations with notable clients such as Shanghai Sugar and Wine Group and expanding its cooperation with retailers like Pinduoduo and Lawson [3]. - The focus on digital transformation in the retail sector is expected to drive accelerated customer order growth, particularly through the implementation of successful pilot programs [4].

Summary of Multi-Point Intelligence Conference Call Company Overview - Multi-Point Intelligence, established in 2015, is the largest retail digital solution provider in China and a leading player in Asia, offering comprehensive operational solutions for retail enterprises [6][9] - The company has served 591 clients, including major retailers like Metro China and Lawson, showcasing its expansion capabilities and potential in digital solutions [4][15] Industry and Market Dynamics - The global retail market exceeded 100 trillion yuan by 2023, with significant growth potential for Multi-Point Intelligence as a key participant [9] - The retail digitalization market in Asia is projected to reach nearly 100 billion yuan by 2029, indicating substantial future market space for Multi-Point Intelligence [10] Financial Performance - For 2024, Multi-Point Intelligence reported revenue of 1.859 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of nearly 20% [2][7] - The company recorded a net loss of 2.19 billion yuan, but after excluding non-operating losses, it achieved a turnaround to profitability [7][8] - The gross margin has been steadily increasing, and the cost structure has significantly improved, laying a solid foundation for sustained performance growth [8] Strategic Initiatives - Multi-Point Intelligence has formed a strategic partnership with HASTK to explore digital asset trading, Web 3 technology, and blockchain ecosystem development, which may benefit from the overall market performance of virtual currencies [2][3] - The company is planning to apply for a renminbi license to enhance cross-border payment efficiency and reduce costs, aligning with its retail payment systems [2][4] - The company has introduced AI technology solutions, such as the AI agent series, which have been successfully implemented in clients like Wumart, resulting in significant cost savings and improved client attraction [2][12] Collaborations and Partnerships - A deep collaboration with the well-known retail brand Fat Donglai has integrated its management philosophy into Multi-Point Intelligence's systems, creating a replicable model for digital transformation in retail [2][13] - The company has also partnered with notable international clients, including DFI and SM Group, and is expanding its presence in Southeast Asia and Europe [17][18] Future Outlook - Multi-Point Intelligence is optimistic about its future growth, particularly in the stablecoin sector, which is expected to synergize with its business development [5][20] - The company aims to enhance its international business, focusing on Asia and Europe, where the retail industry's digitalization is relatively underdeveloped [19] - The subscription and commission-based SaaS model has shown strong customer retention, with a net revenue retention rate of 114% in 2024, indicating robust future growth potential [10][11] Investment Highlights - The company is well-positioned in the retail SaaS sector, leveraging AI technology to enhance product competitiveness and market influence [9][10] - Multi-Point Intelligence's strategic initiatives and partnerships are expected to drive significant growth and investment value in the coming years [20]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Juewei Foods (603517.SH), demonstrated resilience and market competitiveness in the first quarter of 2025, achieving a revenue of 1.501 billion yuan and a net profit of 120 million yuan despite structural adjustments in the consumer market and intensified industry competition [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Juewei Foods reported a revenue of 1.501 billion yuan and a net profit of 120 million yuan, reflecting the challenges in the current consumer market [1]. - The company utilized 294 million yuan of its own funds for share repurchase and cancellation in 2024 to maintain market stability and enhance investor confidence [2]. - The annual dividend plan for 2024 included a cash dividend of 3.3 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 200 million yuan, along with a mid-term dividend of 3 yuan per 10 shares, highlighting the company's commitment to shareholder interests [2]. Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - Juewei Foods is accelerating its digital transformation strategy, partnering with Tencent Smart Retail to leverage AI, cloud technology, and big data for enhancing retail operations [3]. - The company has implemented a comprehensive digital strategy across various platforms, including offline stores, takeout services, and social media, with AI-driven initiatives like "Xiao Huo Ya" improving customer engagement and decision-making speed [3]. - The AI applications have led to a 39% increase in store operational efficiency and significant improvements in marketing effectiveness, with click-through rates rising over 40% and conversion rates increasing by 25% [3]. Group 3: Targeting Young Consumers - Juewei Foods is focusing on the preferences of Generation Z, employing flexible product strategies and brand rejuvenation to strengthen its influence among young consumers [4]. - The company utilizes social media to enhance its youthful brand image, engaging in "listening to advice" marketing and collaborating with popular cultural IPs to resonate with younger audiences [4]. - In 2025, Juewei Foods plans to continue exploring AI and retail synergies while deepening its digital layout and expanding consumption scenarios targeted at younger demographics [4].

Core Viewpoint - The application of AI technology in the retail industry is enhancing efficiency, reducing costs, and improving customer experience through various solutions such as visual recognition and real-time monitoring [2][5][9]. Group 1: AI Technology in Retail - AI technology, including visual recognition and multi-modal AI, is becoming standard in retail, significantly improving self-checkout efficiency and reducing the likelihood of item scanning errors [2][5]. - The integration of AI solutions has enabled retailers to address issues such as employee cost increases and operational inefficiencies, with labor costs often exceeding 30% of total expenses [3][4]. - AI applications are evolving from basic functions to more complex systems that can analyze customer emotions and provide personalized services, enhancing the overall shopping experience [9][10]. Group 2: Challenges in Retail Operations - Retailers face significant challenges related to employee costs and operational efficiency, particularly in the checkout process where human error can lead to substantial losses [3][4]. - Self-checkout systems present unique challenges, including management difficulties and the risk of undetected scanning errors, which can result in financial losses for retailers [4][5]. - Inventory management remains a critical pain point, with traditional methods relying on human experience leading to inefficiencies and potential stock issues [4]. Group 3: AI Solutions and Their Impact - Companies like Zhongke Yingtai and Haishi Commercial are developing AI-driven loss prevention solutions that utilize real-time monitoring and alerts to enhance self-checkout processes [6][7]. - The deployment of AI solutions in various retail scenarios, such as bakeries and cafeterias, has shown significant improvements in checkout speed and accuracy, reducing customer wait times [6][7]. - AI technology is also being applied to supply chain management, enabling data-driven decision-making that optimizes inventory and reduces stockouts by up to 50% [8]. Group 4: Future Directions of AI in Retail - The future of AI in retail is focused on creating systems that not only enhance operational efficiency but also provide emotional value to customers, fostering a deeper connection between retailers and consumers [9][10]. - The evolution of AI capabilities is expected to lead to more sophisticated systems that can handle multiple recognition tasks simultaneously, ultimately improving customer service and satisfaction [9][10]. - Retailers are increasingly leveraging AI for data analysis to optimize product placement and promotional strategies, resulting in improved sales performance [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.27 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decline of 2.2%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 150 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.2%. The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 130 million yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 6.2% [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company experienced a slight decline in revenue despite a 13.8% increase in customer traffic. The sales revenue reached 10.06 billion yuan, up 1.8% year-on-year. However, the revenue from self-operated comparable stores fell by 2.7% [12]. - The company operates 46 shopping centers, 59 department stores, and 108 supermarkets, with a net change of 1, 0, and -2 stores respectively. The overall store layout remains stable [12]. - The gross profit margin for Q1 was 36.2%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, while the supermarket gross margin increased by 0.7 percentage points to 23.5%, contributing to a 20% year-on-year increase in supermarket profit [12]. Business Transformation - The company is actively pursuing digital transformation and enhancing operational efficiency through AI and retail technology upgrades. The revenue from its digital operations grew by 22.9% in 2024 and 30.5% in Q1 2025 [12]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its business structure and accelerating the transformation of its retail operations, which is expected to improve profitability in the medium to long term [12]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to reach 0.11 yuan, 0.15 yuan, and 0.19 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating potential profit elasticity as new business formats mature [12].

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba's first reduction of its stake in Sanjiang Shopping indicates a clear signal of capital retreat from traditional retail, marking a new phase in its strategic contraction in this sector [1][3][10]. Shareholder Holdings Overview - As of the announcement date, Alibaba's subsidiary, Hangzhou Alibaba Zeta Information Technology Co., holds 175,257,088 shares in Sanjiang Shopping, accounting for 32% of the total share capital, making it the second-largest shareholder [2]. Reduction Plan Details - Alibaba plans to reduce its holdings by up to 16,430,352 shares, representing 3% of the total share capital, with an estimated cash-out of approximately 194 million yuan based on the closing price on April 22 [1][3][11]. Financial Performance of Sanjiang Shopping - In its 2024 annual report, Sanjiang Shopping reported total revenue of 3.875 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.53% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 3.51% to 143 million yuan [4][6]. Historical Context of the Partnership - Alibaba's investment in Sanjiang Shopping in 2016 was seen as a key move following the introduction of the "New Retail" concept, aiming to leverage online and offline synergies [7][8]. Challenges Faced by Sanjiang Shopping - Sanjiang Shopping has struggled with revenue stagnation, with total revenue hovering around 4 billion yuan from 2016 to 2023, and net profit showing significant fluctuations [9][12]. Industry Trends and Shifts - The reduction of Alibaba's stake reflects broader changes in the retail industry, including a shift from aggressive expansion to refined operations, with a focus on core business areas [10][14]. Future Prospects for Sanjiang Shopping - Post-reduction, Sanjiang Shopping may explore localized strategies, leveraging its cold chain logistics and community services to adapt to changing consumer demands [13][15].

公司 1Q2025综合毛利率下降0.70个百分点，期间费用率增长0.03个百分点 1Q2025公司综合毛利率为36.25%，同比下降0.70个百分点。2024年公司综合毛利率为36.89%，同比下降 1.38个百分点。 1Q2025公司期间费用率为31.12%，同比增长0.03个百分点。其中，销售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别为 27.53%/2.67%/0.74%/0.17%，同比分别变化+0.33/-0.32/+0.15/-0.12个百分点。2024年公司期间费用率为 35.94%，同比下降1.10个百分点。其中，销售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别为31.21%/3.51% /0.78%/0.45%， 同比分别变化-0.92/+0.36/+0.11/-0.65个百分点。 业务升级转型，强化数字化能力 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因 ...