Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report maintains a bullish outlook on copper prices in the medium - term, as copper fundamentals show limited supply and increasing demand. The current global consumption of copper is strong, and although the pre - Spring Festival inventory accumulation in China may be faster than expected, the post - festival inventory depletion could also be rapid [1]. - For aluminum, the LME 0 - 3M spread has returned to negative, but the overseas active restocking supports the aluminum price. The domestic internal demand has short - term support, and the overall market is in a high - level oscillation with a slight decline [2]. - In the zinc market, the domestic fundamentals are average, but the market is optimistic about zinc's potential for price increase due to limited long - term capital expenditure and potential supply disturbances from Iranian zinc mines. Attention should be paid to reverse - arbitrage opportunities [8]. - Nickel's short - term fundamental situation is weak, with a slight decline in pure nickel production, weak overall demand, and a high - level decline in Jinchuan premium. There is a short - term game between policies and fundamentals [12]. - Stainless steel's fundamentals remain weak, mainly following the nickel price. The steel mill production is maintained at a high level, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the inventory has a slight reduction from a high level [14]. - For lead, it is expected to oscillate in the range of 17,100 - 17,600 next week. The supply - demand contradiction has been alleviated, and it is recommended to try short - selling at high prices in the short term [15]. - Tin can be considered as a long - position allocation for non - ferrous metals in the first quarter. In the long - term, if there is a macroeconomic inflection point, the price may fluctuate downward significantly in the second half of 2026 [16]. - Industrial silicon's price is expected to oscillate with costs in the short term and at the cycle bottom with seasonal marginal cost as the anchor in the long term, as the supply is shrinking and the short - term demand is approaching a balance [19]. - Lithium carbonate's short - term supply and demand are close to balance in January. If the market expectation cools down or the intermediate inventory reaches a low level, a resonance between the futures and spot markets may occur [21]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Categories Copper - From January 23 to 29, 2026, the spot import profit increased by 1893.13, and the three - month import profit increased by 397.55. The LME copper inventory increased by 2150, and the LME注销仓单 decreased by 1100. The copper price tested the 99,000 support level during the week and then rose sharply on the Friday night session [1]. Aluminum - During the same period, the price of Shanghai aluminum ingots increased by 600, and the aluminum LME inventory decreased by 2250. The aluminum锭基差 and downstream processing fees are still at a low level, and the apparent demand for aluminum ingots and aluminum products has rebounded [1][2]. Zinc - The spot premium decreased by 20, and the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 50. The supply of domestic and imported zinc concentrates has tightened, and the demand is seasonally weak. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation, and the market is optimistic about zinc's price increase in the long - term [6][8]. Nickel - The pure nickel production decreased slightly, and the demand was weak. The domestic inventory had a slight increase, and the LME inventory remained stable. There is a short - term game between the Indonesian policy and the fundamentals [11][12]. Stainless Steel - The prices of 304 cold - rolled coils, 304 hot - rolled coils, 201 cold - rolled coils, 430 cold - rolled coils, and waste stainless steel remained unchanged. The fundamentals are weak and mainly follow the nickel price [13][14]. Lead - The supply - side production is expected to increase by 1 - 1.5 tons in January. The demand is expected to weaken, and the inventory has started to accumulate for the second week. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 17,100 - 17,600 next week [15]. Tin - The tin price oscillated upward this week. The supply - side recovery in the first quarter is controversial, and the demand - side downstream restocking willingness varies. The domestic inventory increased slightly, and the overseas LME inventory oscillated upward. It can be a long - position allocation in the first quarter [16]. Industrial Silicon - The monthly supply continued to shrink, and the short - term demand was close to a balance. The price is expected to oscillate with costs in the short term and at the cycle bottom in the long term [19]. Lithium Carbonate - The SMM electric carbon price decreased by 4000, and the SMM industrial carbon price also decreased by 4000. The short - term supply and demand are close to balance in January, and there may be a resonance between the futures and spot markets in the future [21].

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2026/01/29 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2026/01/22 -350 4773 213515 143173 -498.98 -11.07 22.0 22.0 -82.84 168250 47100 2026/01/23 -350 5022 225937 146793 -590.48 192.15 22.0 22.0 -66.06 171700 46275 2026/01/26 -370 5164 225937 145314 -803.91 -329.61 22.0 22.0 -71.07 170525 44725 2026/01/27 -380 4809 225937 144908 -698.50 290.46 22.0 22.0 -93.80 172350 45075 2026/01/28 -350 5489 225937 148038 -67.63 4.13 20.0 20.0 -101.09 17 ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2026/01/28 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2026/01/21 -350 5002 213515 145581 -1047.36 -10.15 22.0 22.0 -29.11 159400 46825 2026/01/22 -350 4773 213515 143173 -498.98 -11.07 22.0 22.0 -82.84 168250 47100 2026/01/23 -350 5022 225937 146793 -590.48 192.15 22.0 22.0 -66.06 171700 46275 2026/01/26 -370 5164 225937 145314 -803.91 -329.61 22.0 22.0 -71.07 170525 44725 2026/01/27 -380 4809 225937 144908 -698.50 290.46 22.0 22.0 -93.80 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report Core Views - For copper, the price pulled back in the second half of the week, and the market sentiment cooled. In the short - term, negative factors are released, but the price is expected to rise in the medium - term as the fundamentals feature limited supply and increasing demand [1] - For aluminum, the basis and downstream processing fees are low, with continuous inventory accumulation. Domestic demand has short - term support, and overseas active restocking may support the price [1] - For zinc, the domestic fundamentals are average, but the market is optimistic about its allocation flexibility, and attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage and positive arbitrage opportunities [2] - For nickel, the short - term fundamentals are weak, and there is a game between short - term policies and fundamentals [3] - For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain weak, and the price is mainly driven by nickel price in the short - term [3] - For lead, the price oscillates at a high level. Supply is expected to increase, demand is weakening, and the price is expected to oscillate between 17100 - 17600 next week [5] - For tin, the price fluctuates greatly, and is affected by capital sentiment. Short - term volatility may decline, and attention can be paid to internal - external positive arbitrage opportunities [8] - For industrial silicon, the supply - demand is balanced and loose. The price is expected to oscillate with cost in the short - term and at the bottom of the cycle in the medium - to long - term [11] - For lithium carbonate, the short - term supply - demand is close to balance. The absolute price is affected by futures market expectations and sentiment, and a spot - futures resonance market may occur [13] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory**: The copper price pulled back in the second half of the week. The LME inventory increased by 3100, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2612 [1] - **Market Analysis**: US tariff issues and high inventories in the US triggered concerns. In the short - term, negative factors are released, and the inventory may accumulate faster before the Spring Festival but decline quickly after the festival. The medium - term outlook is positive [1] Aluminum - **Price and Inventory**: The aluminum price declined. The LME inventory increased by 24175, and the SHFE inventory remained unchanged [1] - **Market Analysis**: The basis and processing fees are low, and the inventory is accumulating. Domestic demand has short - term support from photovoltaic, and overseas active restocking may support the price [1] Zinc - **Price and Inventory**: The zinc price decreased. The LME inventory decreased by 450, and the SHFE inventory remained unchanged [2] - **Market Analysis**: Supply is affected by TC decline and smelter operations, and demand is weak. The market is optimistic about its allocation flexibility, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [2] Nickel - **Price and Inventory**: The nickel price dropped. The LME inventory decreased by 72 [3] - **Market Analysis**: Supply decreased slightly, demand is weak, and there is a game between short - term policies and fundamentals [3] Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory**: The stainless steel price declined slightly. The inventory decreased slightly from a high level [3] - **Market Analysis**: Supply is high, demand is mainly for rigid needs. The price is mainly driven by nickel price in the short - term [3] Lead - **Price and Inventory**: The lead price oscillated at a high level. The inventory increased by 1.3 tons to 3.25 tons [5] - **Market Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase, demand is weakening, and the price is expected to oscillate between 17100 - 17600 next week [5] Tin - **Price and Inventory**: The tin price fluctuated greatly. The LME inventory increased by 250 [8] - **Market Analysis**: The price is affected by capital sentiment. Short - term volatility may decline, and attention can be paid to internal - external positive arbitrage opportunities [8] Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory**: The basis of different grades changed, and the warehouse receipts increased by 384 [11] - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand are balanced and loose. The price is expected to oscillate with cost in the short - term and at the bottom of the cycle in the medium - to long - term [11] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory**: The price fluctuated. The warehouse receipts increased by 975 [13] - **Market Analysis**: The short - term supply - demand is close to balance. The absolute price is affected by futures market expectations and sentiment, and a spot - futures resonance market may occur [13]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - For copper, the price callback happened in the second half of this week. In the medium - term, the report maintains a bullish view on copper prices as the fundamentals show limited supply and increasing demand. Although there may be more pre - Spring Festival inventory accumulation this year, the post - festival inventory clearance may be faster [1]. - For aluminum, the basis of aluminum ingots and downstream processing fees are still low, and the consumption is weak. However, the growth of photovoltaic installation and the expectation of export rush provide short - term support for domestic demand. Overseas, the tight spot liquidity and the possible active restocking may support the aluminum price [1]. - For zinc, the domestic fundamentals are average, but the market is optimistic about its allocation flexibility. Attention can be paid to the reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and overseas markets and the positive arbitrage opportunities in the monthly spread [2]. - For nickel, the short - term fundamental situation is weak, and the game between short - term policies and fundamentals continues [3]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain weak, and the price is mainly driven by the news of Indonesian quotas and follows the nickel price in the short term [3][4]. - For lead, the price fluctuates at a high level following the macro trend. The supply - demand contradiction is alleviated, and the inventory starts to accumulate. It is expected that the price will oscillate between 17,100 - 17,600 next week, and short - selling on rallies is recommended in the short term [6]. - For tin, the price is greatly affected by capital sentiment. There are supply risks in major supply countries, but the smelters are willing to deliver to warehouses at high prices. It is recommended to wait and see or pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunities between domestic and overseas markets [9]. - For industrial silicon, the supply - demand is in a balanced and slightly loose state, and the price is expected to oscillate with the cost. In the long - term, the price will oscillate at the bottom of the cycle [12]. - For lithium carbonate, the short - term supply - demand is close to balance, and the inventory accumulation in January is expected to be about 1,400 tons per month. The absolute price is greatly affected by the futures market, and a resonance between futures and spot may occur [14]. Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - **Price and Inventory**: From January 14th to 20th, the Shanghai copper spot price decreased by 25, the waste - refined copper spread decreased by 315, and the LME inventory increased by 8,875 [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The price callback was due to US tariff disturbances and high inventory in the US. In the short term, the negative factors are released, but the price is expected to rise in the medium - term [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory**: From January 14th to 20th, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 190, and the LME inventory decreased by 2,000 [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The basis and processing fees are low, and the consumption is weak. However, the growth of photovoltaic and export rush support the price, and overseas restocking may also support the price [1]. Zinc - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic and imported TC is declining, and the domestic zinc ore is tightening. The production increased by 15,000 tons in January. The domestic demand is seasonally weak, and the overseas demand in Europe is average. The export window was opened in December [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The domestic fundamentals are average, but the market is optimistic about its allocation flexibility. Pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [2]. Nickel - **Supply, Demand and Inventory**: The pure nickel production decreased slightly, the demand is weak, and the domestic inventory accumulation slowed down [3]. - **Market Analysis**: The short - term fundamentals are weak, and the game between policies and fundamentals continues [3]. Stainless Steel - **Supply, Demand and Inventory**: The steel mill production is high, the demand is mainly for rigid needs, the cost is stable, and the inventory decreased slightly [3][4]. - **Market Analysis**: The fundamentals are weak, and the price is driven by the news of Indonesian quotas and follows the nickel price [3][4]. Lead - **Supply and Demand**: The production of primary lead is expected to increase by 15,000 tons in January, and the production of recycled lead is expected to increase by 12,000 tons. The demand is expected to weaken, and the inventory increased by 13,000 tons to 32,500 tons [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The price is expected to oscillate between 17,100 - 17,600 next week, and short - selling on rallies is recommended in the short term [6]. Tin - **Supply and Demand**: There are differences in the recovery expectation of low - grade tin in the first quarter. The supply in major countries is disturbed, and the demand has different responses to price changes. The LME inventory oscillates [9]. - **Market Analysis**: The price is affected by capital sentiment, and it is recommended to wait and see or pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities [9]. Industrial Silicon - **Supply and Demand**: Some factories in Sichuan and Inner Mongolia are under maintenance, and the supply - demand is balanced and slightly loose [12]. - **Market Analysis**: The price is expected to oscillate with the cost and at the cycle bottom in the long - term [12]. Lithium Carbonate - **Supply and Demand**: The short - term supply - demand is close to balance, and the inventory accumulation in January is expected to be about 1,400 tons per month [14]. - **Market Analysis**: The absolute price is affected by the futures market, and a resonance between futures and spot may occur [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For copper, the price pulled back in the second half of the week. In the medium - term, the report maintains a bullish view on copper prices as the fundamentals are characterized by limited supply and increasing demand. Although the inventory may accumulate faster than expected before the Spring Festival, the destocking speed may also be rapid after the holiday [1]. - For aluminum, the basis of aluminum ingots and downstream processing fees are still at low levels. Domestic demand has short - term support, and overseas active restocking may support the aluminum price [1]. - For zinc, the domestic fundamentals are average, but the market is optimistic about its allocation flexibility, and it is difficult for the price to fall sharply. Attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and overseas markets and positive arbitrage opportunities in monthly spreads [3]. - For nickel, the short - term real - world fundamentals are weak, and there is a continued game between short - term policies and fundamentals [4]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain relatively weak, and the price is mainly driven by nickel price in the short term [4]. - For lead, the price is expected to oscillate between 17,100 and 17,600 next week, and it is recommended to try short - selling at high prices in the short term [6]. - For tin, the short - term price is mainly affected by capital sentiment and may experience a phased reduction in volatility. It is recommended to wait and see or focus on positive arbitrage opportunities between domestic and overseas markets [9]. - For industrial silicon, the supply and demand are in a balanced and slightly loose state. In the medium - to - long term, the price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [12]. - For lithium carbonate, the short - term supply and demand are close to balance, and the subsequent market may see a resonance between futures and spot prices [14]. 3. Summary by Metal Type Copper - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From January 12 to 16, 2026, the spot price of Shanghai copper decreased by 280, the waste - refined copper spread decreased by 152, the SHFE inventory increased by 32,972, and the LME inventory increased by 2,450 [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The copper price pulled back due to US tariff disturbances, a negative CL spread, and high US inventories. In the medium - term, the supply is limited, and the demand has increments [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From January 12 to 16, 2026, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 170, and the domestic social inventory increased by 42,051 [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The basis and downstream processing fees are low, and the consumption is weak. Domestic demand has short - term support, and overseas active restocking may support the price [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From January 12 to 16, 2026, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 610, and the SHFE inventory increased by 2,459 [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of domestic and imported zinc concentrates is tightening, and the demand is seasonally weak. The overseas LME inventory has increased, and the premium has turned into a discount [3]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and overseas markets and positive arbitrage opportunities in monthly spreads [3]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From January 12 to 16, 2026, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 2,450, and the LME inventory increased by 450 [4]. - **Market Analysis**: The short - term fundamentals are weak, and there is a game between policies and fundamentals [4]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From January 12 to 16, 2026, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil remained unchanged, and the inventory decreased slightly [4]. - **Market Analysis**: The fundamentals are weak, and the price is mainly driven by the nickel price in the short term [4]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From January 12 to 16, 2026, the lead price fluctuated with the macro environment, and the SHFE inventory increased by 6,933 [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The inventory is accumulating, and the refined - scrap spread has narrowed [6]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to oscillate between 17,100 and 17,600 next week, and it is recommended to try short - selling at high prices in the short term [6]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From January 12 to 16, 2026, the tin price fluctuated greatly, and the LME inventory increased by 10 [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply in major producing countries is disturbed, and the downstream restocking willingness varies when the price drops. The price is mainly affected by capital sentiment [9]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see or focus on positive arbitrage opportunities between domestic and overseas markets [9]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From January 12 to 16, 2026, the basis of 421 silicon in Yunnan and Sichuan increased by 125, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 144 [12]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply and demand are in a balanced and slightly loose state, and the price is expected to oscillate with the cost [12]. - **Outlook**: In the medium - to - long term, the price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [12]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From January 12 to 16, 2026, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 1,000, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 253 [14]. - **Supply and Demand**: The short - term supply and demand are close to balance, and the inventory accumulation in January is expected to be about 1,400 tons per month [14]. - **Outlook**: The subsequent market may see a resonance between futures and spot prices [14].