1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices stabilized slightly. The US ISM manufacturing index in January reached 52.6, exceeding expectations and hitting a new high since February 2022. China's RatingDog manufacturing PMI in January rose to a three - month high of 50.3. LME copper inventory decreased by 300 tons, Comex inventory increased by 1,859 tons, and SHFE copper warrants increased by 1,676 tons. The market is in rigid procurement, but the willingness to buy has increased with price adjustments. The copper market faces short - term downward pressure, but long - term fundamentals support price increases [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina trended stronger, while Shanghai aluminum trended weaker. Spot alumina prices fell, and aluminum ingot spot discounts widened. Supply disruptions have led alumina into a narrow - range recovery, but inventory is gradually accumulating. Attention should be paid to the development of the US - Iran situation [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel prices fell. LME and SHFE nickel inventories decreased. Although market sentiment has dragged down prices, cost support remains solid. There may be opportunities to go long lightly near the cost line [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: The US economic data improved, alleviating market concerns. In China, manufacturing data also showed positive signs. Inventory changes were mixed. The copper market faces short - term pressure due to weak spot fundamentals, inventory accumulation, and low demand around the Spring Festival, but long - term factors support price increases [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina prices fluctuated, and aluminum prices were affected by various factors such as supply disruptions, downstream demand, and market sentiment. Attention should be paid to geopolitical factors [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Market sentiment led to price declines, but the cost of nickel ore and nickel - iron is rising, providing support for prices. Demand in some sectors is expected to decline seasonally [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Prices of various copper products decreased, and inventory changes were diverse. The import window was closed, and the LME 0 - 3 premium decreased [1][4]. - **Lead**: Lead prices decreased, and inventory increased slightly. The import profit and loss situation changed [4]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices decreased, and inventory increased. The spot discount widened, and the import profit and loss situation worsened [2][5]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices decreased, and inventory changes were mixed. The import profit and loss situation deteriorated significantly [3][5]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices decreased, and inventory increased. The import profit and loss situation improved [7]. - **Tin**: Tin prices decreased significantly, and inventory increased. The import profit and loss situation improved [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [12]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [13]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [19]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [25]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series steel [31]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the historical trends of copper concentrate index, crude copper processing fees, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin [38]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience and professional qualifications in the non - ferrous metals field, and have won many awards [45][46].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the reports Group 2: Core Views - For copper, prices pulled back in the second half of the week due to US tariff concerns, but the medium - term view remains bullish as fundamentals show limited supply and increasing demand, with faster post - holiday destocking expected [1] - For aluminum, the basis and downstream processing fees are low, with continuous inventory accumulation. While auto consumption is weak, PV installation and export expectations support domestic demand, and overseas active restocking may support prices [1] - For zinc, the domestic fundamentals are average, but long - term capital investment is limited and there are supply disturbances. It's difficult for prices to fall deeply. There are potential reverse arbitrage and positive arbitrage opportunities [2][3] - For nickel, the short - term fundamentals are weak with a slight decline in production, weak demand, and slow inventory accumulation in China. Policy and fundamentals are in a short - term game [3] - For stainless steel, the fundamentals are weak, and the price is mainly driven by nickel price and Indonesian quota news [3] - For lead, prices are oscillating at a high level. Supply is increasing, demand is weakening, and inventory is accumulating. Prices are expected to oscillate between 17100 - 17600 next week, and short - selling on high prices is recommended [5] - For tin, prices fluctuate greatly, affected by capital sentiment. There are supply disturbances in major producing countries, and it is recommended to wait and see or look for positive arbitrage opportunities [8] - For industrial silicon, the supply - demand is balanced and slightly loose, and prices are expected to oscillate with costs in the short - term and at the cycle bottom in the long - term [11] - For lithium carbonate, the short - term supply - demand is close to balance with a 1.4 - thousand - ton monthly inventory accumulation in January. Prices are affected by futures market sentiment, and a spot - futures resonance may occur later [13] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Price: Pulled back in the second half of the week due to US tariff concerns [1] - Inventory: LME inventory increased by 8850, and SHFE inventory decreased by 2408 [1] - Outlook: Medium - term bullish, with faster post - holiday destocking expected [1] Aluminum - Price: Aluminum ingot prices increased slightly, and alumina prices decreased slightly [1] - Inventory: Domestic inventory was flat, and LME inventory increased by 2100 [1] - Outlook: Domestic demand has short - term support, and overseas restocking may support prices [1] Zinc - Price: Zinc ingot prices increased slightly [2] - Supply: Domestic and imported TC is declining, and production increased in January [2] - Demand: Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and exports increased in December [2] - Strategy: Look for reverse and positive arbitrage opportunities [2][3] Nickel - Price: Nickel prices decreased slightly, and nickel ore prices increased [3] - Supply: Pure nickel production decreased slightly [3] - Demand: Overall demand is weak [3] - Outlook: Short - term fundamentals are weak, and there is a policy - fundamentals game [3] Stainless Steel - Price: Prices increased slightly [3] - Supply: Mill production is at a high level [3] - Demand: Demand is mainly for rigid needs [3] - Outlook: Fundamentals are weak, and prices follow nickel prices [3] Lead - Price: Prices oscillated at a high level [5] - Supply: Production is expected to increase, and raw materials are getting tight [5] - Demand: Battery demand is weakening [5] - Inventory: Inventory increased by 1.3 - 3.25 million tons [5] - Outlook: Prices are expected to oscillate between 17100 - 17600, and short - selling on high prices is recommended [5] Tin - Price: Prices fluctuated greatly [8] - Supply: There are supply disturbances in major producing countries [8] - Demand: Downstream restocking willingness is divided [8] - Outlook: Prices may have reduced volatility, and it is recommended to wait and see or look for arbitrage opportunities [8] Industrial Silicon - Price: Basis decreased, and prices are expected to oscillate with costs [11] - Supply: Some factories may reduce production, and some may resume production [11] - Demand: Downstream polysilicon production is affected [11] - Outlook: Supply - demand is balanced and slightly loose, and long - term prices will oscillate at the cycle bottom [11] Lithium Carbonate - Price: Prices increased, and the market was volatile [13] - Supply: Upstream enters the maintenance cycle [13] - Demand: Downstream is cautious about high prices [13] - Inventory: Inventory accumulation is expected to be 1.4 thousand tons in January [13] - Outlook: Supply - demand is close to balance, and spot - futures resonance may occur [13]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report Core Views - For copper, the price pulled back in the second half of the week, and the market sentiment cooled. In the short - term, negative factors are released, but the price is expected to rise in the medium - term as the fundamentals feature limited supply and increasing demand [1] - For aluminum, the basis and downstream processing fees are low, with continuous inventory accumulation. Domestic demand has short - term support, and overseas active restocking may support the price [1] - For zinc, the domestic fundamentals are average, but the market is optimistic about its allocation flexibility, and attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage and positive arbitrage opportunities [2] - For nickel, the short - term fundamentals are weak, and there is a game between short - term policies and fundamentals [3] - For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain weak, and the price is mainly driven by nickel price in the short - term [3] - For lead, the price oscillates at a high level. Supply is expected to increase, demand is weakening, and the price is expected to oscillate between 17100 - 17600 next week [5] - For tin, the price fluctuates greatly, and is affected by capital sentiment. Short - term volatility may decline, and attention can be paid to internal - external positive arbitrage opportunities [8] - For industrial silicon, the supply - demand is balanced and loose. The price is expected to oscillate with cost in the short - term and at the bottom of the cycle in the medium - to long - term [11] - For lithium carbonate, the short - term supply - demand is close to balance. The absolute price is affected by futures market expectations and sentiment, and a spot - futures resonance market may occur [13] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory**: The copper price pulled back in the second half of the week. The LME inventory increased by 3100, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2612 [1] - **Market Analysis**: US tariff issues and high inventories in the US triggered concerns. In the short - term, negative factors are released, and the inventory may accumulate faster before the Spring Festival but decline quickly after the festival. The medium - term outlook is positive [1] Aluminum - **Price and Inventory**: The aluminum price declined. The LME inventory increased by 24175, and the SHFE inventory remained unchanged [1] - **Market Analysis**: The basis and processing fees are low, and the inventory is accumulating. Domestic demand has short - term support from photovoltaic, and overseas active restocking may support the price [1] Zinc - **Price and Inventory**: The zinc price decreased. The LME inventory decreased by 450, and the SHFE inventory remained unchanged [2] - **Market Analysis**: Supply is affected by TC decline and smelter operations, and demand is weak. The market is optimistic about its allocation flexibility, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [2] Nickel - **Price and Inventory**: The nickel price dropped. The LME inventory decreased by 72 [3] - **Market Analysis**: Supply decreased slightly, demand is weak, and there is a game between short - term policies and fundamentals [3] Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory**: The stainless steel price declined slightly. The inventory decreased slightly from a high level [3] - **Market Analysis**: Supply is high, demand is mainly for rigid needs. The price is mainly driven by nickel price in the short - term [3] Lead - **Price and Inventory**: The lead price oscillated at a high level. The inventory increased by 1.3 tons to 3.25 tons [5] - **Market Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase, demand is weakening, and the price is expected to oscillate between 17100 - 17600 next week [5] Tin - **Price and Inventory**: The tin price fluctuated greatly. The LME inventory increased by 250 [8] - **Market Analysis**: The price is affected by capital sentiment. Short - term volatility may decline, and attention can be paid to internal - external positive arbitrage opportunities [8] Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory**: The basis of different grades changed, and the warehouse receipts increased by 384 [11] - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand are balanced and loose. The price is expected to oscillate with cost in the short - term and at the bottom of the cycle in the medium - to long - term [11] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory**: The price fluctuated. The warehouse receipts increased by 975 [13] - **Market Analysis**: The short - term supply - demand is close to balance. The absolute price is affected by futures market expectations and sentiment, and a spot - futures resonance market may occur [13]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The copper price in overseas markets slightly corrected in the second half of the week due to the holiday in the domestic market. The willingness of domestic downstream buyers to accept high prices has significantly decreased. Attention should be paid to the support when the price approaches the psychological price of downstream buyers. The continuous high export of domestic electrolytic copper in the past three months has led to an unobvious inventory accumulation rate in China. In the future, macro-level factors such as the change of domestic risk appetite and the Fed's actions, as well as industrial-level factors such as the contraction of the New York spread and the maintenance of high premiums in non-US regions, should be monitored [1]. - The import volume of primary aluminum has declined significantly, while the exports of primary aluminum, aluminum products, and semi-finished products have all increased. The actual domestic apparent demand is weaker than previously expected. The automobile terminal sales are poor and are expected to decline further after the subsidy is withdrawn in 2026, but the month-on-month recovery of photovoltaic installation volume is better than expected. The inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum products has increased, and the apparent demand has decreased. Although there are signs of weakening in both domestic apparent demand and terminal consumption and the basis is at a multi-year low, the high price can still be supported by strong expectations due to the low inventory level [1]. - The LME zinc 0 - 3M contango has been fluctuating, which eases the overseas supply - demand contradiction. On the supply side, the domestic and imported TC has accelerated its decline. The domestic zinc concentrate supply will be tight from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. As the winter storage approaches, domestic smelters are competing for zinc concentrate inventory. Currently, the profit is acceptable, but attention should be paid to the impact of sulfuric acid and silver prices on the total profit. On the demand side, domestic demand is seasonally weak, and the downstream orders at the end of the year are weak; overseas, the demand in Europe is average, and the import of zinc ingots in the United States has recently increased. As the export window gradually opens, the domestic social inventory has declined in an oscillatory manner, and the domestic spot is tight. Affected by the decline in zinc price, the premium has remained high. There is a trend of Guangdong's zinc supply flowing to East China. The low inventory in the overseas LME has increased, and the premium has turned into a contango. In terms of strategy, the domestic fundamental situation of zinc is poor, but there will be a phased reduction in supply at the end of the year, so it is difficult for the price center to decline significantly. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading; for the domestic - overseas market, pay attention to the reverse arbitrage opportunity; for the calendar spread, pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity [2]. - On the supply side, the output of pure nickel has declined slightly month - on - month. On the demand side, the overall demand is weak, but the premium of Jinchuan nickel is strong. On the inventory side, the inventory accumulation in China has slowed down this week, and the LME has slightly increased its inventory. The short - term fundamental situation is weak. According to the Indonesian Nickel Association (a non - official organization), the quota plan for next year is 250 million tons (a 34% decrease compared to 2025). Although there may be a difference between the actual quota and the association's statement, it is difficult to disprove it in the short term. From the perspective of odds, more investors are going long, and the game between policy and fundamentals has intensified [4]. - On the supply side, steel mills maintain a high production schedule. On the demand side, the demand is mainly for rigid needs. In terms of cost, the price of nickel iron has slightly stabilized, and the price of ferrochrome has remained unchanged. In terms of inventory, the inventory remains at a high level, and the warehouse receipts are also maintained. The overall fundamental situation is weak. The Indonesian policy has a certain motivation to support the price, and the news of the quota cut by the Indonesian Nickel Association (a non - official organization) has driven a short - term price rebound [7]. - The lead price has risen following the macro - trend. On the supply side, the primary lead production is driven by profit, and the maintenance is expected to reduce production by 1 - 1.5 tons. The operation rate of concentrate mines has declined seasonally, and the concentrate supply has become tight, with no hope of a TC rebound; the secondary lead production has resumed, and the output has increased. Recyclers have shown an intention to support the price, and the maintenance within the month has affected 1.5 tons. On the demand side, the monthly battery finished product inventory has increased, and the demand is expected to weaken. Since the end of September, the lead ingot market has tightened, and the supply - demand mismatch has been serious. Currently, the resumption of secondary lead production has alleviated the supply - demand contradiction, but it is difficult for battery factories to accumulate inventory due to their high operation rate, and downstream buyers' replenishment at low prices provides support. The implementation of the new national standard has suppressed the consumption of two - wheeled vehicle batteries, and the procurement and sales are sluggish at the end of the year. The primary lead supply in November - December is expected to remain flat. This week, the resumption of secondary lead production and the maintenance of primary lead have offset each other, but the lead ingot spot is still in short supply, and the inventory is at a low level. The refined - scrap price difference has fallen back to - 50 with the increase in lead price, and the primary lead ingot spot has support. The social inventory in five regions remains at a low level of 18,400 tons, and there is still a risk of warehouse receipt contradiction. It is expected that the domestic and overseas lead prices will remain volatile next week, and attention should be paid to the risk of low warehouse receipts [9]. - The tin price has fluctuated and declined this week. On the supply side, the domestic tin ingot output remains flat. Overseas, the output recovery in Low - Bang is slow due to the slow adjustment of pumping equipment, but the high price has stimulated the export of a large amount of inventory ore recently. If the tin price remains high, it may also accelerate the solution of the mine water accumulation problem, and the problem of imported ore has been slightly alleviated to a normal level. At the end of the year, there is an export rush. In November, the Indonesian President announced that the tin ingot export will exceed 6,000 tons in 2026. In the first quarter of next year, the temporary peace agreement between Congo (Kinshasa) and Rwanda has been reached, and the short - term risk disturbance has been alleviated. On the demand side, the downstream replenishment willingness is strong when the price drops, and the domestic inventory has declined; a large amount of inventory has been delivered overseas, and the LME inventory has increased significantly. In the short term, the supply side may fluctuate greatly under the stimulation of high prices; in the long term, there is a risk of marginal over - supply exceeding expectations. The fundamental situation shows signs of marginal weakening. If the macro - situation shows a systematic decline, the demand will determine the upside space. Tin can be a long - position allocation for non - ferrous metals in the first quarter. 2026 is a year with a large - scale recovery in the supply side. If the macro - situation is worse than expected, the downward fluctuation will also be large [12]. - A large factory in Xinjiang has reduced production this week and currently maintains 88 units. As large factories gradually enter the maintenance period, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are approaching balance. In the short term, the supply and demand of industrial silicon were in balance in December, and the price is expected to fluctuate with the cost. In the long term, the current over - capacity of industrial silicon is still high, and the operation rate is low. The price trend is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle with the seasonal marginal cost as the anchor [15]. - Recently, the production scheduling of the downstream cathode segment has fallen short of expectations, and the futures price has quickly corrected. Then, the new energy vehicle subsidy policy has been implemented, and the expectation of the passenger car market has slightly improved, which has provided support for the price. On the raw material side, the currently circulating supply is still tight, and lithium salt factories have limited acceptance of high - priced ore, resulting in a relatively light trading volume. On the lithium salt side, currently, upstream factories mainly focus on long - term contracts, and the spot sales are limited. The factory inventory continues to decline. On the downstream side, the current trading is mainly for the rigid needs of enterprises. After the significant correction of the futures price, the downstream trading has improved, and there are many post - point - price settlements at low prices. The overall basis quotation and trading have strengthened slightly [19]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory**: From December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026, the Shanghai copper spot price fluctuated, and the inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 3,203 tons. The LME copper inventory decreased by 2,850 tons [1]. - **Market Outlook**: The domestic downstream demand is weak due to high prices. Attention should be paid to macro and industrial factors in the future [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory**: The aluminum ingot price in Shanghai, Yangtze River, and Guangdong regions has increased. The domestic alumina price has decreased slightly. The LME aluminum inventory has decreased by 2,500 tons [1]. - **Market Outlook**: The domestic apparent demand and terminal consumption are weak, but the low inventory and strong expectations support the high price [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory**: The zinc ingot price in Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangdong regions has fluctuated. The LME zinc inventory has decreased by 275 tons [2]. - **Market Outlook**: The domestic supply will have a phased reduction at the end of the year, and the price is difficult to decline significantly. Pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [2]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory**: The price of Shanghai nickel has increased, and the LME nickel inventory has increased by 20,088 tons [3]. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term fundamental situation is weak, and the game between policy and fundamentals has intensified [4]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory**: The prices of 304 cold - rolled, 304 hot - rolled, 201 cold - rolled, 430 cold - rolled, and scrap stainless steel have increased [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The overall fundamental situation is weak, and the Indonesian policy has supported the price in the short term [7]. Lead - **Price and Inventory**: The lead price has risen, and the LME lead inventory has decreased by 2,925 tons [8][9]. - **Market Outlook**: The lead ingot spot is still in short supply, and the price is expected to be volatile. Pay attention to the risk of low warehouse receipts [9]. Tin - **Price and Inventory**: The tin price has declined, and the LME tin inventory has decreased by 15 tons [12]. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term supply may fluctuate, and the long - term supply may be in marginal over - supply. The demand will determine the upside space [12]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory**: The basis of industrial silicon has changed, and the warehouse receipts have increased by 112 [15]. - **Market Outlook**: The supply and demand are approaching balance in the short term, and the price will fluctuate with the cost. In the long term, the price will fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory**: The prices of SMM electric - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate have increased, and the warehouse receipts have increased by 2,039 [19]. - **Market Outlook**: The downstream demand has slightly improved, and the price has support. The upstream inventory is decreasing [19].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For copper, the domestic market's downstream purchasing willingness has significantly declined, but there is support when the price approaches the downstream's psychological level. The continuous high export of domestic electrolytic copper has made the domestic inventory accumulation rate not obvious. In the future, attention should be paid to the domestic risk preference and the Fed's actions, as well as changes in the New York spread and non - US high premiums [1]. - For aluminum, the domestic apparent demand and terminal consumption are showing signs of weakness, and the basis is at a multi - year low. However, the low inventory and strong expectations can support the current high price [1]. - For zinc, the domestic fundamentals are poor, but there is a phased reduction in supply at the end of the year, so the price may not fall deeply. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and foreign markets, and positive arbitrage opportunities in the month - spread [2]. - For nickel, the short - term real - world fundamentals are weak, but the policy and fundamentals are in a more intense game due to Indonesia's nickel quota plan [3][4]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals are generally weak, but the news of Indonesia's nickel quota reduction has driven a short - term price rebound [7]. - For lead, it is expected that the lead price at home and abroad will remain volatile next week, and attention should be paid to the risk of low warehouse receipts [8][9]. - For tin, the short - term supply may fluctuate greatly, and there is a risk of marginal over - supply in the long - term. The fundamentals are showing signs of marginal weakening, and it can be a long - position allocation for non - ferrous metals in the first quarter [12]. - For industrial silicon, in the short - term, the price is expected to fluctuate with costs, and in the long - term, it will mainly oscillate at the cycle bottom [15][16]. - For lithium carbonate, the downstream positive electrode production is less than expected, but the new energy vehicle subsidy policy has provided support for the price. The raw material supply is tight, and the downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs [20]. Group 3: Summary of Each Metal Copper - From December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, the spot premium of Shanghai copper decreased by 85, the scrap - refined copper spread increased by 860, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 2,989 [1]. - In the second half of this week, the domestic market was closed for holidays, and the overseas copper price slightly corrected. The downstream's willingness to receive goods has declined significantly due to high prices [1]. Aluminum - From December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 600, the domestic alumina price decreased by 7, and the aluminum LME inventory decreased by 2,500 [1]. - In November, the import of primary aluminum decreased significantly, and the export of primary aluminum, aluminum products increased. The domestic apparent demand is weaker than previously expected [1]. Zinc - From December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 370, the spot import profit decreased by 145.98, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 75 [2]. - The LME zinc 0 - 3M backwardation maintained a shock this week, which alleviated the overseas supply - demand contradiction. The supply of domestic zinc ore is tightening, and the demand is seasonally weak [2]. Nickel - From December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 5,100, the spot import return decreased by 853.03, and the LME inventory increased by 192 [3]. - The supply of pure nickel decreased slightly, the demand was weak, and the inventory accumulation slowed down in China and increased slightly in the LME [4]. Stainless Steel - From December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil increased by 50, and the price of waste stainless steel increased by 50 [7]. - The steel mill's production is at a high level, the demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the inventory is at a high level. The Indonesian policy has a certain motivation to support the price [7]. Lead - From December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, the spot premium decreased by 30, the spot import return decreased by 196.43, and the LME inventory decreased by 10,925 [8]. - The lead price rose with the macro - environment this week. The supply and demand are in a state of mismatch, but the recovery of recycled lead production has alleviated the contradiction [9]. Tin - From December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, the spot import return decreased by 8,480.77, the LME C - 3M decreased by 35, and the LME inventory increased by 5 [12]. - The tin price fluctuated and declined this week. The supply may be adjusted greatly in the short - term, and there is a risk of marginal over - supply in the long - term [12]. Industrial Silicon - From December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 170, the 421 Sichuan basis decreased by 170, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 456 [15]. - A large factory in Xinjiang reduced production this week. The supply and demand of industrial silicon are approaching balance, and the price will fluctuate with costs in the short - term and oscillate at the cycle bottom in the long - term [15][16]. Lithium Carbonate - From December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 8,000, the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 7,250, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 2,860 [20]. - The downstream positive electrode production is less than expected, but the new energy vehicle subsidy policy has supported the price. The raw material supply is tight, and the downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For copper, the domestic market's downstream purchasing willingness has declined significantly due to high prices, and the support near key price points should be noted. In the future, macro and industrial factors need to be monitored [1]. - For aluminum, domestic apparent demand and terminal consumption show signs of weakening, but low inventory levels and strong expectations support the current high prices [1]. - For zinc, the domestic fundamentals are poor, but there is a temporary reduction in supply at the end of the year, so the price may not fall deeply. Attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage and positive arbitrage opportunities [2]. - For nickel, the short - term fundamentals are weak, and there is a game between policy and fundamentals due to the Indonesian nickel association's quota plan [4]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain weak, but the price rebounds in the short term due to the Indonesian policy [7]. - For lead, the lead price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the risk of low warehouse receipts [9]. - For tin, the short - term supply may fluctuate greatly, and the fundamentals show signs of weakening. It can be a long - position allocation in the first quarter of 2026 [12]. - For industrial silicon, the short - term price is expected to fluctuate with costs, and the medium - to - long - term price will oscillate at the bottom of the cycle [15][16]. - For lithium carbonate, the downstream positive electrode production is lower than expected, but the new energy vehicle subsidy policy supports the price. The raw material supply is tight, and the downstream demand shows signs of improvement [19]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 25 to 31, 2025, the spot price of Shanghai copper decreased by 45, the waste - refined copper spread decreased by 408, the SHFE inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 10,037 [1]. - **Market Outlook**: The domestic market's downstream purchasing willingness has declined significantly due to high prices. Attention should be paid to the support near key price points. In the future, monitor domestic risk appetite, Fed's actions, the contraction of the New York spread, and the maintenance of high premiums in non - US regions [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 25 to 31, 2025, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 280, the Yangtze River aluminum ingot price increased by 280, and the Guangdong aluminum ingot price increased by 290. The domestic alumina price decreased by 1. The SHFE social inventory remained unchanged, and the aluminum exchange inventory remained unchanged [1]. - **Market Outlook**: The import of primary aluminum decreased in November, while the export of primary aluminum, aluminum products, and semi - finished products increased. Domestic apparent demand is weaker than expected. The automobile terminal sales are poor, but the photovoltaic installation volume has rebounded better than expected. The inventory of aluminum ingots and products has increased, and the apparent demand has decreased [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 25 to 31, 2025, the spot premium remained unchanged, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 20, the Tianjin zinc ingot price increased by 40, and the Guangdong zinc ingot price increased by 40. The zinc social inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE zinc exchange inventory remained unchanged [2]. - **Market Outlook**: The LME zinc 0 - 3M backwardation maintained a volatile trend, alleviating the overseas supply - demand contradiction. The supply of domestic and imported zinc concentrates is tightening, and the output of some smelters has decreased. The domestic demand is seasonally weak, and the overseas demand is average [2]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 25 to 31, 2025, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 3,300, the Jinchuan premium increased by 350, and the Russian nickel premium remained unchanged [3]. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term fundamentals are weak. The Indonesian nickel association's quota plan has increased the motivation to go long, and there is a game between policy and fundamentals [4]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 25 to 31, 2025, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil remained unchanged, the price of 304 hot - rolled coil increased by 150, the price of 201 cold - rolled coil remained unchanged, the price of 430 cold - rolled coil remained unchanged, and the price of scrap stainless steel increased by 120 [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The supply is at a high level, the demand is mainly for rigid needs, the cost is relatively stable, and the inventory is at a high level. The Indonesian policy has a certain price - supporting motivation [7]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 25 to 31, 2025, the spot premium increased by 10, the Shanghai - Henan price difference decreased by 25, the Shanghai - Guangdong price difference decreased by 25, and the 1 secondary lead price difference remained unchanged. The social inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE inventory remained unchanged [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The lead price followed the macro trend to rise. The supply - demand contradiction has been alleviated to some extent, but the battery factory's high - level production makes it difficult to accumulate inventory. The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the risk of low warehouse receipts [9]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 25 to 31, 2025, the spot import profit increased by 16,004.33, the spot export profit decreased by 14,232.80, the tin position decreased by 6,427, the LME C - 3M decreased by 5, the LME inventory increased by 90, and the LME cancelled warehouse receipts remained unchanged [12]. - **Market Outlook**: The tin price fluctuated and declined. The short - term supply may fluctuate greatly, and the fundamentals show signs of weakening. It can be a long - position allocation in the first quarter of 2026 [12]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 25 to 31, 2025, the 421 Yunnan basis increased by 55, the 421 Sichuan basis increased by 55, the 553 East China basis increased by 55, the 553 Tianjin basis increased by 55, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 204 [15]. - **Market Outlook**: A large factory in Xinjiang reduced production. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate with costs, and the medium - to - long - term price will oscillate at the bottom of the cycle [15][16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 25 to 31, 2025, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 500, the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 500, the main contract basis increased by 500, the near - month contract basis increased by 40, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 790 [19]. - **Market Outlook**: The downstream positive electrode production is lower than expected, but the new energy vehicle subsidy policy supports the price. The raw material supply is tight, and the downstream demand shows signs of improvement [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market is influenced by long - term bullish beliefs and short - term consumption concerns, with prices oscillating between 85,000 - 88,000 yuan [1]. - The aluminum and alumina market shows short - term lack of industrial highlights, but the medium - term oscillatory upward trend remains unbroken [2]. - The zinc market is supported by exports and costs, with prices consolidating at the low level of 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton, and there are opportunities for cross - market reverse arbitrage [3]. - The lead market faces significant short - term correction pressure, with support levels at 17,100 yuan/ton and the 60 - day moving average [4]. - The nickel and stainless steel market is in a downward channel, with nickel prices showing a weak trend [5]. - The tin market needs to focus on domestic capital changes, and mid - to long - term short positions can be held around 295,000 yuan [6]. - The lithium carbonate market shows a strengthening trend in futures prices, with prices expected to be in the range of 80,000 - 105,000 yuan/ton [7]. - The industrial silicon market is expected to oscillate in the short term due to limited supply and demand improvement [8]. - The polysilicon market is also expected to oscillate in the short term, with its price influenced by policy expectations and related themes [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Sentiment**: The market has a "strong belief" in long - term copper price increases, but end - of - year consumption strength is a concern [1]. - **Domestic Supply and Demand**: It continues the situation of "weak supply and demand", and the industry is concerned about the processing fee negotiation at the Shanghai Copper Annual Meeting. The traditional demand sectors have lower operating rates than last year, and the SMM inventory has decreased [1]. - **Overseas**: A landslide accident occurred in a copper mine in the Congo (Kinshasa), and the province has suspended all artisanal mining activities [1]. - **Trend**: The copper price oscillates between 85,000 - 88,000 yuan. Short positions at last week's high can be held around 88,000 yuan, and put options with an exercise price of 84,000 yuan can be considered [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The domestic operating capacity is 95.8 million tons, and the price is in a downward trend. The industry inventory is increasing, and it is expected to be weak until large - scale production cuts occur [2]. - **Supply**: The operating capacity is temporarily stable, and a new 240,000 - ton capacity project of Tianshan Aluminum is progressing steadily [2]. - **Demand**: The overall operating rate of downstream aluminum processing leading enterprises has increased slightly [2]. - **Inventory and Policy**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods has increased, and the spot premium and discount have shown small - amplitude fluctuations [2]. - **Trend**: The medium - term oscillatory upward trend remains unbroken, but short - term attention should be paid to capital movements [2]. Zinc - **Market**: The LME zinc has risen by 1.7%, and the Shanghai zinc main contract has risen by 1.3% [3]. - **Spot and Supply**: The export window for zinc is open, the LME inventory has increased, and the import zinc concentrate TC has declined. Domestic zinc smelters' profits are under pressure, and there are cross - market reverse arbitrage opportunities [3]. - **Consumption**: The consumption is affected by environmental protection and high prices, and the domestic consumption expectation is average [3]. - **Trend**: The zinc price is expected to consolidate at the low level of 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton, and there are opportunities for cross - market reverse arbitrage [3]. Lead - **Market**: The LME lead inventory has increased sharply, and the price has risen and then fallen. The Shanghai lead has a weak fundamental turn - weak expectation [4]. - **Spot and Supply**: The overseas lead concentrate is being consumed, and the domestic lead concentrate supply is tight. The production of primary and secondary lead has different trends, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation [4]. - **Consumption**: The consumption is expected to weaken, and the short - term correction pressure is increasing [4]. - **Trend**: The Shanghai lead faces significant short - term correction pressure, with support at 17,100 yuan/ton and the 60 - day moving average [4]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market**: The Shanghai nickel and stainless steel prices have declined, and the market trading is weak [5]. - **Macro and Demand**: The inclusion of stainless steel in the list by the UK Department of Commerce has suppressed the demand expectation, and the market remains weak [5]. - **Spot and Supply**: The premiums of different nickel products vary, and the inventories of nickel and stainless steel have increased [5]. - **Trend**: The nickel price is in a weak trend, with the center of gravity shifting downward [5]. Tin - **Market**: The Shanghai tin has increased significantly, and the multi - empty game is intense due to uncertain supply in the short and long terms [6]. - **Supply**: The tin exports from Indonesia have decreased in October, and the African concentrate exports may be affected by the rainy season. The market is uncertain about the long - term supply [6]. - **Consumption**: The demand in traditional and photovoltaic fields at the end of the year is average, and the inventory has increased [6]. - **Trend**: Attention should be paid to domestic capital changes, and mid - to long - term short positions can be held around 295,000 yuan [6]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures**: The price has risen again, and the trading is active [7]. - **Spot**: The spot price of Shanghai lithium carbonate has continued to rise, and the production capacity of lithium salt plants has been fully released [7]. - **Demand**: The production of downstream material plants is active, and the order demand is strong [7]. - **Supply**: The total market inventory has decreased, with different trends in smelter, downstream, and trading inventories [7]. - **Trend**: The futures price is strengthening, and the price range is expected to be 80,000 - 105,000 yuan/ton [7]. Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The price has declined, and the market trading is average [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply is constrained by the dry season in the southwest, and the demand in the polysilicon and organic silicon industries is expected to decline. The possibility of production cuts by monomer plants is uncertain [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory has decreased [8]. - **Trend**: It is expected to oscillate in the short term due to limited supply and demand improvement [8]. Polysilicon - **Futures**: The price has rebounded after reaching a high, and the market sentiment is affected by policy expectations [9]. - **Spot**: The spot price has continued to rise, and the production capacity of lithium salt plants has been fully released [9]. - **Demand**: The demand has declined, and the price has been under pressure. The subsequent price increase by silicon wafer enterprises is expected [9]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory has increased [9]. - **Trend**: It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with its price influenced by policy expectations and related themes [9].

Group 1: Copper - This week, copper prices had a slight correction, and the 85,000 yuan level received concentrated price - fixing support from downstream buyers. The market is concerned about when the liquidity of the TGA account will be released. The Shanghai Copper Conference this week was generally bullish on next year's demand. The current slow inventory - building pattern may continue until the first quarter of next year, and the fundamentals remain stable but weak. The 85,000 yuan level may be the psychological price for downstream price - fixing [1]. Group 2: Aluminum - The long - term reduction of Iceland's electrolytic aluminum production is confirmed, and high overseas electricity prices increase the expectation of production cuts in other capacities. Aluminum prices have risen significantly, with the basis of aluminum ingots declining. The domestic market shows stronger performance than the overseas market, but the apparent demand for domestic aluminum ingots and aluminum products has weakened, and the inventory of aluminum ingots has increased month - on - month. Future supply and demand of aluminum may remain in a tight balance, and prices are likely to rise in the long - term, but the actual performance may be lower than expected [2]. Group 3: Zinc - This week, the center of zinc prices has risen. On the supply side, domestic and imported TC are accelerating their decline, and domestic mines will be marginally tighter from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. In November, the zinc ingots from Huoshaoyun were officially put into production, with an expected monthly output of 8,000 - 10,000 tons. On the demand side, domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas European demand is average. Domestic social inventory is fluctuating, and overseas LME inventory is oscillating at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities, and consider positive arbitrage opportunities for the 12 - 02 spread [5]. Group 4: Stainless Steel - On the supply side, steel mills' production in October increased slightly month - on - month. On the demand side, it is mainly driven by rigid demand. Costs of ferronickel and ferrochrome remain stable. Inventory is at a high level. The fundamentals are generally weak, and it is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [9]. Group 5: Lead - This week, lead prices fluctuated at a high level, and the near - term spread strengthened. On the supply side, the scrap volume is weak year - on - year, and the recovery of recycled lead profits encourages复产. On the demand side, the battery production rate increased by 0.4% this week, but there is an expectation of weakening demand. It is expected that lead prices will maintain a narrow - range oscillation next week, and it is recommended to wait and see the situation of recycled lead production resumption and warehouse receipt increase [12]. Group 6: Tin - This week, tin prices oscillated. On the supply side, the processing fees for tin ore are at a low level, and the supply has marginally recovered after the overhaul of Yunnan Tin ended. Overseas production in Wa State and Indonesia has some uncertainties. On the demand side, it is mainly supported by rigid demand. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, and in the long - term, it is advisable to hold when the price is close to the cost line [15]. Group 7: Industrial Silicon - This week, the operation of leading enterprises in Xinjiang is stable, and most industrial silicon plants in the southwest region have cut production. The overall production in the northwest region is relatively stable. In the fourth quarter, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are expected to be in a slightly loose balance, with prices expected to oscillate in the short - term and at the bottom of the cycle in the long - term [16]. Group 8: Lithium Carbonate - Affected by the expectation of mine复产 in Jiangxi, lithium carbonate prices have fluctuated widely. The upstream inventory has been significantly reduced, and downstream inventory is relatively sufficient. In the short - term, supply and demand are both strong, and the market is in a de - stocking trend. The upward potential of prices depends on further inventory reduction, the emergence of speculative demand, or stronger holding willingness [16]. Group 9: Nickel - On the supply side, the price of nickel sulfate is relatively strong, and the output of pure nickel has slightly decreased month - on - month. On the demand side, it is generally weak. Inventory is continuously increasing both at home and abroad. The short - term fundamentals are weak. With continuous disturbances in the Indonesian nickel ore market and the policy's motivation to support prices, it is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The prices of non - ferrous metals are influenced by multiple factors such as supply - demand changes, policy expectations, and macro - economic indicators. Different metals show different trends and investment opportunities [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Copper - **Market sentiment and fundamentals**: Market sentiment was affected by actual economic data. Domestic refined copper output in August will remain at a record level, and the impact of maintenance in September and October may increase. The production of recycled copper is restricted, and the social inventory of SHFE copper has decreased. However, except for copper foil orders in power grids and integrated circuits, the market is mainly affected by seasonal factors [1]. - **Price trend**: There may be resistance when the price rises again. First, pay attention to the resistance at the upper level, with the focus in the range of 79,600 - 80,000 yuan. Notice the opportunity to buy put options at 82,000 yuan for the 2510 contract [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The price of alumina is in a high - level range historically, and the industry inventory continues to increase. The spot trading is weak, but the cost support limits the downward space. High - selling and low - buying are recommended in the range of 3000 - 3300 yuan [1]. - **Electrolytic aluminum**: The operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum is stable at 4,000 tons, with a small amount of production resuming in Guizhou and Guangxi. The operating rate of downstream processing enterprises has increased, and the exports of aluminum products have changed. The social inventory of aluminum has decreased, and the processing fee has remained stable. The price of SHFE aluminum may be under pressure in the 20,500 - 21,000 yuan area [1]. Lead - **Price trend**: Last week, the price was mainly driven by the fundamentals of supply and demand. The market showed a resonance of spot and futures. It is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [1]. Zinc - **Market situation**: The inventory of zinc is at a high level, and the 0 - 3 month backwardation is large. The downstream demand is affected by factors such as transportation and consumption policies. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,600 - 17,300 yuan/ton [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Stainless steel**: The destocking of stainless steel has slowed down. New tariff regulations may impact exports. The inventory is at a certain level, and it is recommended to actively intervene in short - selling [1]. Tin - **Market situation**: The price of tin has shown a certain volatility. The supply of domestic tin mines is tight, and the consumption shows seasonal characteristics. The inventory has decreased, and the price center of gravity may rise. The price is expected to be in the range of 265,000 - 280,000 yuan, and the high - level area is above 275,000 yuan [1]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market situation**: The market sentiment is uncertain, and the fundamentals have limited guidance on the price. A long - biased thinking is recommended with good risk control [1]. Industrial Silicon - **Market situation**: The price is under pressure at the 9,000 yuan/ton level. The supply and demand both increase, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The market is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,100 - 9,000 yuan/ton [1]. Polysilicon - **Market situation**: The policy has not met expectations, and the market will continue to fluctuate [1]. Recommended Strategies - Hold the high - short strategy for SHFE aluminum with a stop - loss at 21,000 yuan/ton [1]. - Buy put options for SHFE copper 2500 contract. Grasp the opportunity of put options [1]. - Allocate long positions for the silver 2512 contract, with a target price of 1050 and a stop - loss of 910% [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market risk preference remains high despite the under - performance of domestic economic and financial data. Different metals have various supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, copper may see a slight inventory build - up in August but a tight - balance pattern after the off - season; aluminum is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in August; zinc shows an external - strong and internal - weak short - term trend; nickel's short - term fundamentals are average; stainless steel's fundamentals are weak; lead is expected to maintain low - level oscillations; tin is in a supply - demand double - weak situation; industrial silicon may turn from a slight de - stocking to an over - supply situation; and lithium carbonate has a large short - term upward price elasticity and strong downward support [1][4][7][8][11][12][15][16][18] Summary by Metal Types Copper - **Market Data**: From August 14th to 20th, the spot import profit increased by 78.31, and the three - month import profit increased by 128.05. The LME inventory increased by 1200, and the LME注销仓单 decreased by 500 [1] - **Market Analysis**: Macro sentiment shows a recovery in risk preference. Downstream orders have support around 7 - 8, and the spot market trading is okay. The domestic tax subsidy policy for scrap copper may be restricted, and attention should be paid to its impact on refined copper consumption. In August, there may be a slight inventory build - up, but the market focuses on the post - off - season tight - balance pattern [1] Aluminum - **Market Data**: From August 14th to 20th, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 70, and the spot import profit increased by 26.99 [4] - **Market Analysis**: Supply increases slightly, and 1 - 6 months' aluminum ingot imports provide an increment. August is a seasonal off - season for demand, which may improve slightly in the middle and late months. Aluminum exports improve month - on - month, while photovoltaic demand declines, and overseas demand drops significantly. An inventory build - up is expected in August. Pay attention to demand during the short - term off - season and consider far - month spreads and internal - external reverse arbitrage under the low - inventory pattern [4] Zinc - **Market Data**: From August 14th to 20th, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 30, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 950 [7] - **Market Analysis**: Zinc prices fluctuate widely this week. On the supply side, domestic TC has difficulty rising, while import TC increases. In August, the smelting increment is further realized, and overseas mine increments in the second quarter exceed expectations. On the demand side, domestic demand is seasonally weak but has some resilience, and overseas European demand is average. There may be a phased supply shortage. Domestic social inventory fluctuates and rises, while overseas L inventory decreases rapidly. Short - term: suggest waiting and observing; medium - long - term: consider short positions. Hold internal - external positive arbitrage, and pay attention to month - on - month positive arbitrage opportunities [7] Nickel - **Market Data**: From August 14th to 20th, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 700, and the LME注销仓单 decreased by 1776 [8] - **Market Analysis**: Pure nickel production remains at a high level. Overall demand is weak, and premiums are stable recently. Both domestic and overseas nickel plate inventories remain unchanged. Short - term fundamentals are average, and the macro - side is mainly about anti - involution policy games. Continue to pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [8] Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From August 14th to 20th, the 304 cold - rolled coil price decreased by 100, and the 304 hot - rolled coil price decreased by 50 [11] - **Market Analysis**: Some steel mills have passive production cuts, and demand is mainly for rigid needs, with some restocking due to the macro - environment. Nickel and chrome iron prices remain stable. Inventories in Xijiao and Foshan slightly decrease, and exchange warehouse receipts remain unchanged. Fundamentals are generally weak, and pay attention to future policy trends [11] Lead - **Market Data**: From August 14th to 20th, the spot import profit increased by 29.45, and the LME库存 decreased by 1850 [12] - **Market Analysis**: Lead prices oscillate this week. On the supply side, scrap volume is weak year - on - year, and recycled lead production maintains a low level. On the demand side, battery finished - product inventory is high, and the market's peak season is not prosperous. Although there is an expectation of a peak season from July to August, this week's terminal consumption de - stocking and lead ingot purchasing are weak. It is expected that lead prices will maintain low - level oscillations next week [12] Tin - **Market Data**: From August 14th to 20th, the spot import profit increased by 4836.19, and the LME库存 increased by 85 [15] - **Market Analysis**: Tin prices fluctuate widely this week. On the supply side, domestic smelting production may decline slightly in July - August, and overseas production has some uncertainties. On the demand side, solder demand has limited elasticity, and terminal electronics and photovoltaic growth are expected to decline. The domestic inventory fluctuates and rises, while overseas LME inventory is at a low level with a squeeze - out risk. Short - term: suggest short - selling at high prices; medium - long - term: hold at low prices near the cost line [15] Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From August 14th to 20th, the 421 Yunnan basis increased by 135, and the 553 East China basis increased by 85 [16] - **Market Analysis**: The restart of Xinjiang's leading enterprises is less than expected, while Sichuan and Yunnan's production slightly increases. In August, there is a slight de - stocking. The restart progress of Hesheng and Southwest enterprises will determine future supply - demand balance. Short - term: if either reaches full production, supply will be in excess. Medium - long - term: the industry has a large over - capacity, and prices will oscillate at the cycle bottom [16] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From August 14th to 20th, the SMM electric carbon price remained unchanged, and the basis of the main contract increased by 6560 [16][23] - **Market Analysis**: Affected by factors such as de - stocking data and production resumption expectations, the market is strong. Upstream lithium salt producers are willing to sell, downstream procurement is mainly for rigid needs with stronger restocking willingness, and trading among traders is more active. The core contradiction is the long - term over - supply and short - term resource - end compliance disturbances. With the approaching of the downstream peak season, lithium carbonate prices have a large short - term upward elasticity and strong downward support [18]