Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market is influenced by long - term bullish beliefs and short - term consumption concerns, with prices oscillating between 85,000 - 88,000 yuan [1]. - The aluminum and alumina market shows short - term lack of industrial highlights, but the medium - term oscillatory upward trend remains unbroken [2]. - The zinc market is supported by exports and costs, with prices consolidating at the low level of 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton, and there are opportunities for cross - market reverse arbitrage [3]. - The lead market faces significant short - term correction pressure, with support levels at 17,100 yuan/ton and the 60 - day moving average [4]. - The nickel and stainless steel market is in a downward channel, with nickel prices showing a weak trend [5]. - The tin market needs to focus on domestic capital changes, and mid - to long - term short positions can be held around 295,000 yuan [6]. - The lithium carbonate market shows a strengthening trend in futures prices, with prices expected to be in the range of 80,000 - 105,000 yuan/ton [7]. - The industrial silicon market is expected to oscillate in the short term due to limited supply and demand improvement [8]. - The polysilicon market is also expected to oscillate in the short term, with its price influenced by policy expectations and related themes [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Sentiment**: The market has a "strong belief" in long - term copper price increases, but end - of - year consumption strength is a concern [1]. - **Domestic Supply and Demand**: It continues the situation of "weak supply and demand", and the industry is concerned about the processing fee negotiation at the Shanghai Copper Annual Meeting. The traditional demand sectors have lower operating rates than last year, and the SMM inventory has decreased [1]. - **Overseas**: A landslide accident occurred in a copper mine in the Congo (Kinshasa), and the province has suspended all artisanal mining activities [1]. - **Trend**: The copper price oscillates between 85,000 - 88,000 yuan. Short positions at last week's high can be held around 88,000 yuan, and put options with an exercise price of 84,000 yuan can be considered [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The domestic operating capacity is 95.8 million tons, and the price is in a downward trend. The industry inventory is increasing, and it is expected to be weak until large - scale production cuts occur [2]. - **Supply**: The operating capacity is temporarily stable, and a new 240,000 - ton capacity project of Tianshan Aluminum is progressing steadily [2]. - **Demand**: The overall operating rate of downstream aluminum processing leading enterprises has increased slightly [2]. - **Inventory and Policy**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods has increased, and the spot premium and discount have shown small - amplitude fluctuations [2]. - **Trend**: The medium - term oscillatory upward trend remains unbroken, but short - term attention should be paid to capital movements [2]. Zinc - **Market**: The LME zinc has risen by 1.7%, and the Shanghai zinc main contract has risen by 1.3% [3]. - **Spot and Supply**: The export window for zinc is open, the LME inventory has increased, and the import zinc concentrate TC has declined. Domestic zinc smelters' profits are under pressure, and there are cross - market reverse arbitrage opportunities [3]. - **Consumption**: The consumption is affected by environmental protection and high prices, and the domestic consumption expectation is average [3]. - **Trend**: The zinc price is expected to consolidate at the low level of 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton, and there are opportunities for cross - market reverse arbitrage [3]. Lead - **Market**: The LME lead inventory has increased sharply, and the price has risen and then fallen. The Shanghai lead has a weak fundamental turn - weak expectation [4]. - **Spot and Supply**: The overseas lead concentrate is being consumed, and the domestic lead concentrate supply is tight. The production of primary and secondary lead has different trends, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation [4]. - **Consumption**: The consumption is expected to weaken, and the short - term correction pressure is increasing [4]. - **Trend**: The Shanghai lead faces significant short - term correction pressure, with support at 17,100 yuan/ton and the 60 - day moving average [4]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market**: The Shanghai nickel and stainless steel prices have declined, and the market trading is weak [5]. - **Macro and Demand**: The inclusion of stainless steel in the list by the UK Department of Commerce has suppressed the demand expectation, and the market remains weak [5]. - **Spot and Supply**: The premiums of different nickel products vary, and the inventories of nickel and stainless steel have increased [5]. - **Trend**: The nickel price is in a weak trend, with the center of gravity shifting downward [5]. Tin - **Market**: The Shanghai tin has increased significantly, and the multi - empty game is intense due to uncertain supply in the short and long terms [6]. - **Supply**: The tin exports from Indonesia have decreased in October, and the African concentrate exports may be affected by the rainy season. The market is uncertain about the long - term supply [6]. - **Consumption**: The demand in traditional and photovoltaic fields at the end of the year is average, and the inventory has increased [6]. - **Trend**: Attention should be paid to domestic capital changes, and mid - to long - term short positions can be held around 295,000 yuan [6]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures**: The price has risen again, and the trading is active [7]. - **Spot**: The spot price of Shanghai lithium carbonate has continued to rise, and the production capacity of lithium salt plants has been fully released [7]. - **Demand**: The production of downstream material plants is active, and the order demand is strong [7]. - **Supply**: The total market inventory has decreased, with different trends in smelter, downstream, and trading inventories [7]. - **Trend**: The futures price is strengthening, and the price range is expected to be 80,000 - 105,000 yuan/ton [7]. Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The price has declined, and the market trading is average [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply is constrained by the dry season in the southwest, and the demand in the polysilicon and organic silicon industries is expected to decline. The possibility of production cuts by monomer plants is uncertain [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory has decreased [8]. - **Trend**: It is expected to oscillate in the short term due to limited supply and demand improvement [8]. Polysilicon - **Futures**: The price has rebounded after reaching a high, and the market sentiment is affected by policy expectations [9]. - **Spot**: The spot price has continued to rise, and the production capacity of lithium salt plants has been fully released [9]. - **Demand**: The demand has declined, and the price has been under pressure. The subsequent price increase by silicon wafer enterprises is expected [9]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory has increased [9]. - **Trend**: It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with its price influenced by policy expectations and related themes [9].

Group 1: Copper - This week, copper prices had a slight correction, and the 85,000 yuan level received concentrated price - fixing support from downstream buyers. The market is concerned about when the liquidity of the TGA account will be released. The Shanghai Copper Conference this week was generally bullish on next year's demand. The current slow inventory - building pattern may continue until the first quarter of next year, and the fundamentals remain stable but weak. The 85,000 yuan level may be the psychological price for downstream price - fixing [1]. Group 2: Aluminum - The long - term reduction of Iceland's electrolytic aluminum production is confirmed, and high overseas electricity prices increase the expectation of production cuts in other capacities. Aluminum prices have risen significantly, with the basis of aluminum ingots declining. The domestic market shows stronger performance than the overseas market, but the apparent demand for domestic aluminum ingots and aluminum products has weakened, and the inventory of aluminum ingots has increased month - on - month. Future supply and demand of aluminum may remain in a tight balance, and prices are likely to rise in the long - term, but the actual performance may be lower than expected [2]. Group 3: Zinc - This week, the center of zinc prices has risen. On the supply side, domestic and imported TC are accelerating their decline, and domestic mines will be marginally tighter from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. In November, the zinc ingots from Huoshaoyun were officially put into production, with an expected monthly output of 8,000 - 10,000 tons. On the demand side, domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas European demand is average. Domestic social inventory is fluctuating, and overseas LME inventory is oscillating at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities, and consider positive arbitrage opportunities for the 12 - 02 spread [5]. Group 4: Stainless Steel - On the supply side, steel mills' production in October increased slightly month - on - month. On the demand side, it is mainly driven by rigid demand. Costs of ferronickel and ferrochrome remain stable. Inventory is at a high level. The fundamentals are generally weak, and it is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [9]. Group 5: Lead - This week, lead prices fluctuated at a high level, and the near - term spread strengthened. On the supply side, the scrap volume is weak year - on - year, and the recovery of recycled lead profits encourages复产. On the demand side, the battery production rate increased by 0.4% this week, but there is an expectation of weakening demand. It is expected that lead prices will maintain a narrow - range oscillation next week, and it is recommended to wait and see the situation of recycled lead production resumption and warehouse receipt increase [12]. Group 6: Tin - This week, tin prices oscillated. On the supply side, the processing fees for tin ore are at a low level, and the supply has marginally recovered after the overhaul of Yunnan Tin ended. Overseas production in Wa State and Indonesia has some uncertainties. On the demand side, it is mainly supported by rigid demand. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, and in the long - term, it is advisable to hold when the price is close to the cost line [15]. Group 7: Industrial Silicon - This week, the operation of leading enterprises in Xinjiang is stable, and most industrial silicon plants in the southwest region have cut production. The overall production in the northwest region is relatively stable. In the fourth quarter, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are expected to be in a slightly loose balance, with prices expected to oscillate in the short - term and at the bottom of the cycle in the long - term [16]. Group 8: Lithium Carbonate - Affected by the expectation of mine复产 in Jiangxi, lithium carbonate prices have fluctuated widely. The upstream inventory has been significantly reduced, and downstream inventory is relatively sufficient. In the short - term, supply and demand are both strong, and the market is in a de - stocking trend. The upward potential of prices depends on further inventory reduction, the emergence of speculative demand, or stronger holding willingness [16]. Group 9: Nickel - On the supply side, the price of nickel sulfate is relatively strong, and the output of pure nickel has slightly decreased month - on - month. On the demand side, it is generally weak. Inventory is continuously increasing both at home and abroad. The short - term fundamentals are weak. With continuous disturbances in the Indonesian nickel ore market and the policy's motivation to support prices, it is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The prices of non - ferrous metals are influenced by multiple factors such as supply - demand changes, policy expectations, and macro - economic indicators. Different metals show different trends and investment opportunities [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Copper - **Market sentiment and fundamentals**: Market sentiment was affected by actual economic data. Domestic refined copper output in August will remain at a record level, and the impact of maintenance in September and October may increase. The production of recycled copper is restricted, and the social inventory of SHFE copper has decreased. However, except for copper foil orders in power grids and integrated circuits, the market is mainly affected by seasonal factors [1]. - **Price trend**: There may be resistance when the price rises again. First, pay attention to the resistance at the upper level, with the focus in the range of 79,600 - 80,000 yuan. Notice the opportunity to buy put options at 82,000 yuan for the 2510 contract [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The price of alumina is in a high - level range historically, and the industry inventory continues to increase. The spot trading is weak, but the cost support limits the downward space. High - selling and low - buying are recommended in the range of 3000 - 3300 yuan [1]. - **Electrolytic aluminum**: The operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum is stable at 4,000 tons, with a small amount of production resuming in Guizhou and Guangxi. The operating rate of downstream processing enterprises has increased, and the exports of aluminum products have changed. The social inventory of aluminum has decreased, and the processing fee has remained stable. The price of SHFE aluminum may be under pressure in the 20,500 - 21,000 yuan area [1]. Lead - **Price trend**: Last week, the price was mainly driven by the fundamentals of supply and demand. The market showed a resonance of spot and futures. It is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [1]. Zinc - **Market situation**: The inventory of zinc is at a high level, and the 0 - 3 month backwardation is large. The downstream demand is affected by factors such as transportation and consumption policies. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,600 - 17,300 yuan/ton [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Stainless steel**: The destocking of stainless steel has slowed down. New tariff regulations may impact exports. The inventory is at a certain level, and it is recommended to actively intervene in short - selling [1]. Tin - **Market situation**: The price of tin has shown a certain volatility. The supply of domestic tin mines is tight, and the consumption shows seasonal characteristics. The inventory has decreased, and the price center of gravity may rise. The price is expected to be in the range of 265,000 - 280,000 yuan, and the high - level area is above 275,000 yuan [1]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market situation**: The market sentiment is uncertain, and the fundamentals have limited guidance on the price. A long - biased thinking is recommended with good risk control [1]. Industrial Silicon - **Market situation**: The price is under pressure at the 9,000 yuan/ton level. The supply and demand both increase, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The market is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,100 - 9,000 yuan/ton [1]. Polysilicon - **Market situation**: The policy has not met expectations, and the market will continue to fluctuate [1]. Recommended Strategies - Hold the high - short strategy for SHFE aluminum with a stop - loss at 21,000 yuan/ton [1]. - Buy put options for SHFE copper 2500 contract. Grasp the opportunity of put options [1]. - Allocate long positions for the silver 2512 contract, with a target price of 1050 and a stop - loss of 910% [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market risk preference remains high despite the under - performance of domestic economic and financial data. Different metals have various supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, copper may see a slight inventory build - up in August but a tight - balance pattern after the off - season; aluminum is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in August; zinc shows an external - strong and internal - weak short - term trend; nickel's short - term fundamentals are average; stainless steel's fundamentals are weak; lead is expected to maintain low - level oscillations; tin is in a supply - demand double - weak situation; industrial silicon may turn from a slight de - stocking to an over - supply situation; and lithium carbonate has a large short - term upward price elasticity and strong downward support [1][4][7][8][11][12][15][16][18] Summary by Metal Types Copper - **Market Data**: From August 14th to 20th, the spot import profit increased by 78.31, and the three - month import profit increased by 128.05. The LME inventory increased by 1200, and the LME注销仓单 decreased by 500 [1] - **Market Analysis**: Macro sentiment shows a recovery in risk preference. Downstream orders have support around 7 - 8, and the spot market trading is okay. The domestic tax subsidy policy for scrap copper may be restricted, and attention should be paid to its impact on refined copper consumption. In August, there may be a slight inventory build - up, but the market focuses on the post - off - season tight - balance pattern [1] Aluminum - **Market Data**: From August 14th to 20th, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 70, and the spot import profit increased by 26.99 [4] - **Market Analysis**: Supply increases slightly, and 1 - 6 months' aluminum ingot imports provide an increment. August is a seasonal off - season for demand, which may improve slightly in the middle and late months. Aluminum exports improve month - on - month, while photovoltaic demand declines, and overseas demand drops significantly. An inventory build - up is expected in August. Pay attention to demand during the short - term off - season and consider far - month spreads and internal - external reverse arbitrage under the low - inventory pattern [4] Zinc - **Market Data**: From August 14th to 20th, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 30, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 950 [7] - **Market Analysis**: Zinc prices fluctuate widely this week. On the supply side, domestic TC has difficulty rising, while import TC increases. In August, the smelting increment is further realized, and overseas mine increments in the second quarter exceed expectations. On the demand side, domestic demand is seasonally weak but has some resilience, and overseas European demand is average. There may be a phased supply shortage. Domestic social inventory fluctuates and rises, while overseas L inventory decreases rapidly. Short - term: suggest waiting and observing; medium - long - term: consider short positions. Hold internal - external positive arbitrage, and pay attention to month - on - month positive arbitrage opportunities [7] Nickel - **Market Data**: From August 14th to 20th, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 700, and the LME注销仓单 decreased by 1776 [8] - **Market Analysis**: Pure nickel production remains at a high level. Overall demand is weak, and premiums are stable recently. Both domestic and overseas nickel plate inventories remain unchanged. Short - term fundamentals are average, and the macro - side is mainly about anti - involution policy games. Continue to pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [8] Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From August 14th to 20th, the 304 cold - rolled coil price decreased by 100, and the 304 hot - rolled coil price decreased by 50 [11] - **Market Analysis**: Some steel mills have passive production cuts, and demand is mainly for rigid needs, with some restocking due to the macro - environment. Nickel and chrome iron prices remain stable. Inventories in Xijiao and Foshan slightly decrease, and exchange warehouse receipts remain unchanged. Fundamentals are generally weak, and pay attention to future policy trends [11] Lead - **Market Data**: From August 14th to 20th, the spot import profit increased by 29.45, and the LME库存 decreased by 1850 [12] - **Market Analysis**: Lead prices oscillate this week. On the supply side, scrap volume is weak year - on - year, and recycled lead production maintains a low level. On the demand side, battery finished - product inventory is high, and the market's peak season is not prosperous. Although there is an expectation of a peak season from July to August, this week's terminal consumption de - stocking and lead ingot purchasing are weak. It is expected that lead prices will maintain low - level oscillations next week [12] Tin - **Market Data**: From August 14th to 20th, the spot import profit increased by 4836.19, and the LME库存 increased by 85 [15] - **Market Analysis**: Tin prices fluctuate widely this week. On the supply side, domestic smelting production may decline slightly in July - August, and overseas production has some uncertainties. On the demand side, solder demand has limited elasticity, and terminal electronics and photovoltaic growth are expected to decline. The domestic inventory fluctuates and rises, while overseas LME inventory is at a low level with a squeeze - out risk. Short - term: suggest short - selling at high prices; medium - long - term: hold at low prices near the cost line [15] Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From August 14th to 20th, the 421 Yunnan basis increased by 135, and the 553 East China basis increased by 85 [16] - **Market Analysis**: The restart of Xinjiang's leading enterprises is less than expected, while Sichuan and Yunnan's production slightly increases. In August, there is a slight de - stocking. The restart progress of Hesheng and Southwest enterprises will determine future supply - demand balance. Short - term: if either reaches full production, supply will be in excess. Medium - long - term: the industry has a large over - capacity, and prices will oscillate at the cycle bottom [16] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From August 14th to 20th, the SMM electric carbon price remained unchanged, and the basis of the main contract increased by 6560 [16][23] - **Market Analysis**: Affected by factors such as de - stocking data and production resumption expectations, the market is strong. Upstream lithium salt producers are willing to sell, downstream procurement is mainly for rigid needs with stronger restocking willingness, and trading among traders is more active. The core contradiction is the long - term over - supply and short - term resource - end compliance disturbances. With the approaching of the downstream peak season, lithium carbonate prices have a large short - term upward elasticity and strong downward support [18]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The overall fundamentals and inventory of copper provide support, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level. For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and attention should be paid to demand. For zinc, the idea of short - allocation remains unchanged. For nickel, continue to pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio. Stainless steel is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Lead is expected to oscillate between 16400 - 16700 next week. For tin, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and focus on short - selling opportunities in the medium term. Industrial silicon has potential supply pressure in the future. Lithium carbonate is expected to decline after oscillation [1][4][8][12][16][19][21][23] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Overseas, LME cash - 3m structure steepened due to concentrated cancellation of LME warrants in the eurozone. In China, the export window is close to opening, and some smelters are organizing exports. Global visible copper inventory is in a downward trend, and domestic inventory is not expected to accumulate rapidly. Consumption remains resilient, and copper is expected to fluctuate at a high level [1] Aluminum - Supply has increased slightly, and imports from January to April were large. Demand is expected to weaken seasonally in June, with a supply - demand gap. Inventory will decline gently from June to July. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and pay attention to demand. Long - short spreads can be held if the absolute price drops [1] Zinc - Zinc prices oscillated narrowly this week. Supply will increase by about 25,000 tons in June compared with May, and processing fees are expected to rise. Domestic demand has limited elasticity, and overseas demand is weak. Social inventory has increased slightly. The idea of short - allocation remains unchanged, and long - short spreads can be held [4] Nickel - Supply of pure nickel remains at a high level, and imports from Russia increased in April. Demand is weak overall, and LME premium has strengthened slightly. Overseas nickel plate inventory remains stable, and domestic inventory has decreased slightly. Continue to pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [8] Stainless Steel - Supply increased seasonally in April and decreased passively since late May. Demand is mainly for rigid needs. Costs remain stable. Inventory has increased slightly in Xijiao and Foshan, and exchange warrants have decreased. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [12] Lead - Lead prices oscillated at a low level this week. Supply is weak, and demand is also weak. The price is expected to oscillate between 16400 - 16700 next week, with supply expected to be flat and demand weak in June [16] Tin - Tin prices oscillated upward this week due to improved commodity sentiment and border conflicts. Supply is affected by mine issues, and demand is expected to decline. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and focus on short - selling opportunities in the medium term [19] Industrial Silicon - The overall start - up rate has increased slightly. Short - term supply and demand are both decreasing. Future supply has potential pressure. In the medium - long term, prices are expected to bottom - out based on the cash - flow cost of leading manufacturers [21] Lithium Carbonate - Prices oscillated at a low level this week. Downstream demand is weak, and inventory has increased. In the medium - long term, prices are expected to oscillate weakly. It is expected to decline after oscillation [23]