有色60ETF（159881）涨超1.5%，工业金属供需格局引关注。 每日经济新闻 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成 投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产品 要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 华创证券指出，铝价在美联储"鹰派"降息后短暂走弱，但全球铝库存小幅下行，LME+国内铝库存维持 在120万-125万吨，安全库存处于低位。海外项目因电力问题减产叠加印尼增量释放缓慢，未来2-3年全 球铝供需或维持紧平衡，库存或持续低位，对铝价形成支撑。铜铝比创年内新高，历史铜铝比多处于 3.3-3.7，意味着铝仍有补涨空间，若美国因缺电逻辑减产，铝价弹性可能更强。电解铝行业利润有望维 持高位，氧化铝价格下行带动吨铝成本下降，行业平均利润约5500元/吨，且企业现金流改善、资本开 支强度低，红利属性凸显。短期金属价格或受美联储政策分歧影响震荡，但铝的基本面和金融属性支撑 其长期表现。 ...

华创证券指出，黄金方面，各国央行10月购入黄金53吨，环比增长36%，创2025年以来最大单月净需 求，央行购金和投资需求对黄金形成支撑；白银受供需连续5年缺口及低库存支撑，价格弹性或更强。 铝价再创年内新高，全球供给因电力问题面临减停产，供给收紧难证伪，而储能需求爆发增长预期强 劲，预计未来全球供需紧平衡。目前LME+国内铝库存维持120万~130万吨低位，海外项目因电力减产 叠加印尼增量释放缓慢，未来2~3年供需或持续紧平衡，低库存支撑铝价。铜铝比回升至4以上，历史 均值3.3~3.7，铝存在补涨空间。 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成 投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产品 要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 每日经济新闻 矿业ETF（561330）跟踪的是有色矿业指数（931892），该指数从市场中选取涉及贵金属、工业金属及 稀有金属等子行业的上市公司证券作为指数样 ...

Core Insights - The industrial metals sector is experiencing an improving supply-demand dynamic, with prices expected to rise [1] - Electrolytic aluminum capacity utilization has reached a peak of 98%, indicating inelastic supply, where any demand surge or supply disruption could lead to shortages [1] - The average aluminum price has increased by 1,000 yuan/ton annually for several years, and if demand exceeds expectations next year, it may surpass historical highs [1] - Ongoing supply disruptions in copper mining, particularly the shutdown of the Grasberg mine, are projected to create a supply-demand gap of about 1% by 2026 [1] - High copper prices have not significantly stimulated capital expenditure increases, with expectations that copper prices will reach over 85,000 yuan/ton by 2026 [1] - Zinc concentrate port inventories have rebounded, alleviating supply tightness, while demand from the automotive and home appliance sectors is expected to maintain a tight balance [1] - The strategic importance of minor metals like tungsten and antimony is increasing, with limited supply growth and relaxed export controls, leading to a potential upward price trend [1] - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous metals index (931892), which includes listed companies involved in the extraction and processing of copper, aluminum, lead, and zinc [1] - This index exhibits strong cyclicality and sensitivity to commodity prices, effectively reflecting the operational trends of the non-ferrous metals mining industry [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the industrial metal sector is experiencing price increases due to rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with specific impacts on copper, aluminum, and zinc prices [1] - Copper prices are influenced by the U.S. Section 232 investigation into copper imports, leading traders to ship record amounts of copper to the U.S. to avoid potential tariffs, resulting in a significant inventory shortage outside the U.S. [1] - LME deliverable copper inventory has plummeted by approximately 80% this year, with spot prices reaching a premium of $300/ton over three-month futures, the highest since 2021 [1] Group 2 - Aluminum prices are benefiting from supply disruptions in Guinea's bauxite, highlighting the vulnerability of the supply chain [1] - Zinc prices are showing strength due to ongoing depletion of LME inventories [1] - The overall supply-demand dynamics for industrial metals are tightening, with expectations of reduced copper smelting and processing fees potentially leading to production cuts, indicating strong medium to long-term price support [1] Group 3 - The Nonferrous 60 ETF (159881) has risen over 1.3%, tracking the performance of the nonferrous metal industry in the A-share market [1] - The index reflects the overall performance of listed companies involved in the mining, smelting, and processing of nonferrous metals, covering various sub-sectors including precious and rare metals [1] - Investors without stock accounts may consider related ETF products such as Guotai Zhongzheng Nonferrous Metal ETF Initiated Link A (013218) and Guotai Zhongzheng Nonferrous Metal ETF Initiated Link C (013219) [1]