2月23日，摩根大通发布最新研究报告，对2026年全球铝市供需格局及价格走势作出预判。报告指出， 预计2026年全球铝市将出现约23万吨的供应缺口，并据此给出2026年第二季度铝均价每吨3200美元的预 测，同时认为2026年下半年铝价仍将获得有力支撑。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 本文源自：市场资讯 作者：观察君 值得关注的是，摩根大通同日还对铜市作出了类似的偏紧判断。报告预估2026年全球铜市将面临13万吨 的供应缺口，并预测第二季度铜价为每吨13500美元，第三季度为每吨13000美元。 从更宏观的视角来看，铜、铝等工业金属近年来的需求结构正在发生深刻变化。传统上，这类金属的需 求主要受房地产周期驱动，但随着全球数据中心建设加速、电力基础设施升级以及新能源产业扩张，铜 铝等品种的需求来源日趋多元化。尤其是AI算力扩张带来的电力消耗增长，以及各国"再工业化"进程推 动的产能建设，正在为工业金属创造新的结构性需求增量。 在供给端，全球电解铝产能扩张受到能源成本、环保政策等多重因素制约，新增产能释放节奏偏缓。与 此同时，部分资源国通过提高资源税、 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the aluminum market is expected to maintain a tight balance in supply and demand over the next 2-3 years, supported by low inventory levels and production cuts due to power issues in overseas projects [1] - Aluminum prices experienced a temporary decline after the Federal Reserve's hawkish interest rate cut, but global aluminum inventory has slightly decreased, maintaining levels between 1.2 million to 1.25 million tons, indicating a low safety stock [1] - The copper-aluminum ratio has reached a new high for the year, suggesting that aluminum still has room for price increases, especially if production cuts occur in the U.S. due to electricity shortages [1] Group 2 - The electrolytic aluminum industry is expected to maintain high profit levels, with alumina prices declining, leading to a reduction in aluminum production costs, averaging around 5,500 yuan per ton [1] - Companies in the aluminum sector are experiencing improved cash flow and low capital expenditure intensity, highlighting their dividend attributes [1] - Short-term metal prices may be influenced by the Federal Reserve's policy divergences, but the fundamentals and financial attributes of aluminum support its long-term performance [1] Group 3 - The Nonferrous 60 ETF (159881) tracks the China Securities Nonferrous Index (930708), which selects listed companies involved in the mining, smelting, and processing of nonferrous metals from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets [1] - The China Securities Nonferrous Index reflects the overall performance of the nonferrous metal industry in the A-share market, covering various sectors such as copper, gold, aluminum, rare earths, and lithium, with a balanced industry distribution and characteristics of both cyclicality and growth [1]

Group 1 - Central banks purchased 53 tons of gold in October, a month-on-month increase of 36%, marking the largest single-month net demand since 2025, providing support for gold prices due to central bank buying and investment demand [1] - Silver prices are supported by a continuous supply-demand gap for five years and low inventory, indicating potentially stronger price elasticity [1] - Aluminum prices have reached a new high for the year, with global supply facing production cuts due to power issues, leading to a tightening supply situation that is difficult to refute [1] Group 2 - The LME and domestic aluminum inventory remains low at 1.2 to 1.3 million tons, with overseas projects facing production cuts due to power reductions and slow release of Indonesian supply, suggesting a continued tight balance between supply and demand for the next 2-3 years [1] - The copper-aluminum ratio has risen above 4, compared to the historical average of 3.3 to 3.7, indicating potential for aluminum price increases [1] - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous metals index (931892), selecting listed companies involved in precious metals, industrial metals, and rare metals, focusing on resource extraction and smelting to reflect the overall performance of the non-ferrous metals industry [1]

Core Insights - The industrial metals sector is experiencing an improving supply-demand dynamic, with prices expected to rise [1] - Electrolytic aluminum capacity utilization has reached a peak of 98%, indicating inelastic supply, where any demand surge or supply disruption could lead to shortages [1] - The average aluminum price has increased by 1,000 yuan/ton annually for several years, and if demand exceeds expectations next year, it may surpass historical highs [1] - Ongoing supply disruptions in copper mining, particularly the shutdown of the Grasberg mine, are projected to create a supply-demand gap of about 1% by 2026 [1] - High copper prices have not significantly stimulated capital expenditure increases, with expectations that copper prices will reach over 85,000 yuan/ton by 2026 [1] - Zinc concentrate port inventories have rebounded, alleviating supply tightness, while demand from the automotive and home appliance sectors is expected to maintain a tight balance [1] - The strategic importance of minor metals like tungsten and antimony is increasing, with limited supply growth and relaxed export controls, leading to a potential upward price trend [1] - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous metals index (931892), which includes listed companies involved in the extraction and processing of copper, aluminum, lead, and zinc [1] - This index exhibits strong cyclicality and sensitivity to commodity prices, effectively reflecting the operational trends of the non-ferrous metals mining industry [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the industrial metal sector is experiencing price increases due to rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with specific impacts on copper, aluminum, and zinc prices [1] - Copper prices are influenced by the U.S. Section 232 investigation into copper imports, leading traders to ship record amounts of copper to the U.S. to avoid potential tariffs, resulting in a significant inventory shortage outside the U.S. [1] - LME deliverable copper inventory has plummeted by approximately 80% this year, with spot prices reaching a premium of $300/ton over three-month futures, the highest since 2021 [1] Group 2 - Aluminum prices are benefiting from supply disruptions in Guinea's bauxite, highlighting the vulnerability of the supply chain [1] - Zinc prices are showing strength due to ongoing depletion of LME inventories [1] - The overall supply-demand dynamics for industrial metals are tightening, with expectations of reduced copper smelting and processing fees potentially leading to production cuts, indicating strong medium to long-term price support [1] Group 3 - The Nonferrous 60 ETF (159881) has risen over 1.3%, tracking the performance of the nonferrous metal industry in the A-share market [1] - The index reflects the overall performance of listed companies involved in the mining, smelting, and processing of nonferrous metals, covering various sub-sectors including precious and rare metals [1] - Investors without stock accounts may consider related ETF products such as Guotai Zhongzheng Nonferrous Metal ETF Initiated Link A (013218) and Guotai Zhongzheng Nonferrous Metal ETF Initiated Link C (013219) [1]