券商集体"卷"向"反内卷"研究了？ 近日，"反内卷"一词在证券行业显得"炙手可热"。据Wind数据，7月以来，截至7月25日，券商发布的 与"反内卷"相关的研究报告已经逼近500篇，几乎每天有近20篇"反内卷"的研报，涵盖了金属、电力设 备、煤炭、出海等多个行业。与此同时，"反内卷"主题相关路演数量也明显增多。 机构普遍认为，未来"反内卷"可能演绎成为市场下一阶段的行情主线，光伏、锂电、汽车、钢铁、水 泥、电商行业政策力度或将加强。 "反内卷"主题研报、路演层出不穷，涵盖多个行业 事实上，关于"反内卷"的问题治理贯穿了2025年的时间线。在今年政府工作报告中，就首次提出"综合 整治'内卷式'竞争"。 到了5月份，国家发展改革委研究室副主任李超在月度新闻发布会上表示，中国经济正处在新旧动能转 换期，新产业新业态新模式竞相涌现，传统产业加快转型升级。在这个过程中，确实有一些行业出现结 构性问题，有的盲目跟风投资，有的跟不上技术更新迭代节奏。一些企业陷入"内卷式"竞争，有的以低 价、超低价，甚至以低于成本价格销售，有的制假售假、以次充好。这些都突破了市场竞争的边界和底 线，扭曲了市场机制，扰乱了公平竞争秩序，必须加 ...

ab 21 July 2025 Global Research China Equity Strategy Potential market reaction to anti-involution drive: Lessons from 2015-16 supply-side reform China's anti-involution push gathering momentum In July 2024, the Political Bureau meeting began calling for industries to exert more self- discipline to avoid damaging involutionary competition. The Central Economic Work Conference in late 2024 and the Two Sessions this March both proposed comprehensive measures to eliminate such severe competition. This initiati ...

Our China Solar Profitability Tracker follows monthly supply/demand and inventory dynamics by sub-sector, and the spot prices/input costs implied cash GP & EBITDA margin trends for companies under our coverage. Key highlights in July MTD: China Solar: Tracking profitability inflection Policy driven upstream price hike in July but muted transaction amid demand weakness Sector view: We believe the anti-involution could imply higher prices and an earlier profitability inflection vs. GSe if well implemented. Ho ...

当我们感悟到异常，发现预期差时，阻碍我们去行动的最大障碍就是"希望交易"。正是"回头看""希望 交易"让我们犹豫、纠结。交易中，最让我们后悔的不是错失机会，而是看到机会没有抓住，看到风险 没有规避。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250724— 争先恐后反内卷，雪中送冰锤债市（-股市和商品继续走强-发改委：治理"内卷式"竞 争-债基赎回增多-MLF续作量低于预期-资金面进一步收敛=大上)】 -------------------------- 今天债市被股市和商品持续剧烈地撞击，甚至连亲妈都"雪中送冰"：连续4日净回笼资金，MLF也"冷酷 到底"。10年国债期货已回补此前因"对等关税"跳空的缺口，基金赎回数据进一步激发"负反馈"的恐惧 基因。 今日关键词："内卷式反内卷"，各个部门、各大行业、各家企业，争先恐后地投身"反内卷"热潮。债农 不禁陷入沉思：难道真的可以用这种方式不惜一切代价实现通胀和繁荣？股民：有没有可能，你就是那 个代价？ 资金面边际收敛，长债收益率大幅上行。 央行公开市场开展3310亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有4505亿元逆回购到期，净回笼1195亿元。此外， 尾盘央行公告，将以固定数量、利率 ...

China Internet and Other Services | Asia Pacific Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Potential Government Step in on Anti-involution? What's new: According to local news, Shanghai market regulators met with food delivery platforms, which have reportedly taken actions including pulling back ultra- low-price promotions, improving price governance, etc. The move came after China's State Administration for Market Regulation held talks on July 18 with leading players on intensified industry competition. Our view: Altho ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on Metals & Mining Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the dynamics of the steel, iron ore, and metallurgical coal markets, highlighting current trends and future outlooks in these sectors [1] Steel Market Insights - Pre-emptive stocking and record long positioning earlier in the year, combined with weak demand from March to June, contributed to the underperformance of spot prices, which did not fully react to tariff hikes [2] - EU steel prices are at multi-year lows, but structural support and policy changes may limit further downside [2] - Inventories are normalizing, but prices remain below historical averages; tightness may emerge in the second half of the year [2] - Scrap markets are expected to recover due to substitution economics amid rising raw material costs [2] - US tariff exemptions are deemed unlikely due to complex compliance requirements, particularly concerning Chinese-origin steel [2] Iron Ore and Metallurgical Coal Insights - China's steel production remains robust, with mills operating above 90% capacity, driven by strong margins of $30-40 per ton [3] - The recent price rally in iron ore and steel is attributed more to sentiment and trader positioning rather than fundamentals [3] - Mills are restocking iron ore at higher prices, supported by healthy order books and margin confidence [3] - Steel demand is seasonally soft but remains flat year-over-year, with resilience in infrastructure and manufacturing offsetting weakness in the property sector [3] - A shift towards higher-grade ore is noted due to margin expansion and environmental restrictions [3] - The China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG) has been inactive during the recent price rally, which may affect market stability [3] US and EU Steel Price Dynamics - In the US, steel prices have moderated due to aggressive stocking ahead of anticipated tariffs, leading to a record long market [6] - EU prices have fallen to five-year lows due to ineffective safeguard duties and minimal import barriers [7] - The muted reaction in spot markets to tariff increases is attributed to weak demand across key sectors, with US domestic production up 8% year-to-date [8] Inventory and Demand Trends - US inventories have been drawn down and are close to the five-year average, but prices remain below average [9] - Recent weeks have seen service centers and fabricators begin drawing from stock, indicating a potential inflection point in demand [10] - Scrap prices in Turkey, the US, and the EU are at five-year lows, but a recovery is anticipated [13] Future Outlook - The commodities research team expects a more positive outlook for US hot-rolled coil (HRC) in 2026, supported by economic growth and increased end-use demand [15] - EU demand remains weak, but downside risk to prices appears limited, with potential support from fiscal expansions and tightening safeguard quotas [16] - China's steel demand is expected to remain flat year-over-year, with macro policy expectations and trader positioning playing significant roles in price dynamics [22] Additional Observations - A notable shift in mills' preference for high-grade iron ore is observed, driven by expanding steel margins and environmental considerations [25] - The degradation of Pilbara Blend fines has led to a discount in the premium market, which may impact pricing in the second half of the year [26] - China's National Energy Agency is inspecting potential overproduction among coal miners, which could lead to production cuts if oversupply persists [28]

22 July 2025 | 6:22PM CST China Solar Key Q&As on Anti-Involution Since the Central Commission for Financial and Economic Affairs (CCFEA) meeting on July 1st where President Xi called for building a "united national market", discouraging local protectionism, as well as regulating disorderly price competition and excessive competition among producers, share prices for our covered Polysilicon companies (Tongwei/GCL/DQ) rallied by an average of 32% (vs. +13% for the rest of our China Solar coverage and +3%/+2% ...

M Foundation Slower 2H, Muted July Policy Meeting Related Reports: GDP: Higher Annual Forecast, Lower Momentum Ahead (15 July 2025) Morgan Stanley Asia Limited Robin Xing Chief China Economist Robin.Xing@morganstanley.com +852 2848-6511 July 21, 2025 01:27 AM GMT Investor Presentation | Asia Pacific Jenny Zheng, CFA Economist Jenny.L.Zheng@morganstanley.com +852 3963-4015 Extel Global Fixed Income Poll is now open. We hope you have enjoyed our research over the past year and appreciate your support. Request ...

17 July 2025 | 7:32PM HKT China Construction: Building Materials 2Q25 Preview: Demand backdrop remains tough but some green shoots on pricing Our covered Chinese building materials companies are scheduled to report 2Q25 results starting mid-August. In this report, we preview 2Q25 results based on our recent channel checks, underlying end-demand trends, and raw material prices. Overall, we expect most companies to see double-digit yoy decline in net profit for the quarter (except for Skshsu, due to relativel ...

Market Overview - The A-share market opened lower with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.1% and the ChiNext Index down by 0.07% [1] - The photovoltaic equipment sector showed active performance, while insurance, rare earth permanent magnets, and computing power leasing sectors experienced the largest declines [1] Institutional Insights - According to Caixin Securities, the market is in a new buying window before August, with no significant macro risks, improved investor sentiment, and incoming capital, suggesting continued upward momentum despite strong resistance levels [1] - Investment recommendations include sectors related to "anti-involution" policies such as photovoltaic, lithium batteries, automobiles, steel, building materials, coal, and pork [1] - Dongfang Securities predicts that the Shanghai Composite Index will oscillate around 3500 points, with a low systemic risk and potential for upward expansion [2] - CITIC Securities maintains a strategic optimistic outlook, noting that liquidity and improved market sentiment could lead to further upward movement in A-shares, despite potential short-term pullback pressures [3] Sector Focus - High-prospect sectors to consider include TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and high-end manufacturing, particularly those expected to report better-than-expected mid-year results [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of sectors benefiting from "anti-involution" policies and those with anticipated strong mid-year earnings, such as overseas computing power, wind energy, shipping, innovative pharmaceuticals, new consumption, and military industry [1][3]