C o m p a n y U p d a t e C h i n a R e s e a r c h D e p t . 2025 年 10 月 30 日 | C0062@capital.com.tw | | | --- | --- | | 王睿哲 目标价(港元) | 95.0 | 公司基本资讯 | 产业别 | | 家用电器 | | --- | --- | --- | | H 股价(2025/10/29) | | 81.70 | | 恒生指数(2025/10/29) | | 26,346.1 | | 股价 12 个月高/低 | | 87.35/60.81 | | 总发行股数(百万) | | 7,683.64 | | H 股数(百万) | | 650.85 | | H 市值(亿元) | | 5,344.27 | | | | 美的控股有限 | | 主要股东 | | 公司(28.24%) | | 每股净值(元) | | 28.71 | | 股价/账面净值 | | 2.86 | | | | 一年 三个月 一个月 | | 股价涨跌(%) | 11.04% | 2.94% 0.55% | | 近期评等 | | | | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 251.12 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.58%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 26.01 billion yuan, up 25.04% year-on-year, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 26.24 billion yuan, reflecting a 30.00% increase [2][5] - In Q2 2025, the company reported a revenue of 123.29 billion yuan, a 10.90% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 13.59 billion yuan, growing 15.14% year-on-year [2][5] - The company announced a mid-year profit distribution plan, proposing a cash dividend of 5 yuan per 10 shares (tax included), and completed a share buyback and cancellation in June 2025, with total cash dividends amounting to 4.40 billion yuan, accounting for 16.92% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [2][5] Revenue Growth - The company continues to experience double-digit revenue growth, with a 15.58% year-on-year increase in H1 2025. The smart home business grew by 13.31%, while commercial and industrial solutions saw a 20.79% increase, with new energy and industrial technology growing by 28.61% [10] - Domestic revenue increased by 14.05%, while overseas revenue grew by 17.70%. The retail sales of the high-end smart home brands "COLMO+Toshiba" surged over 60% year-on-year [10] Profitability Improvement - The company optimized its expense ratio significantly, with the net profit margin excluding non-recurring items increasing by 1.16 percentage points year-on-year in H1 2025. The sales expense ratio decreased by 0.02 percentage points, and the management expense ratio decreased by 0.19 percentage points [10] - The gross profit margin decreased by 0.79 percentage points year-on-year, with variations across different business segments [10] Future Outlook - The company has established strong cost, operational, and brand advantages in the air conditioning, refrigeration, and small appliance sectors. It is actively expanding into high-end markets and overseas OBM, which is expected to drive new growth [10] - The growth potential in the B-end business is significant, providing broader growth space for the company. The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 43.64 billion, 47.09 billion, and 51.65 billion yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 13.30, 12.33, and 11.24 times [10]

Core Viewpoint - Midea Group reported a robust performance in the first half of 2025, achieving a revenue of 251.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.58%, despite the challenging environment of price competition in the home appliance industry [1][2]. Financial Performance - Revenue reached 251.12 billion yuan, up 15.58% from 217.27 billion yuan in the same period last year [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 26.01 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 25.04% compared to 20.80 billion yuan [2]. - The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 26.24 billion yuan, marking a 30.00% increase from 20.18 billion yuan [2]. - Operating cash flow was 37.28 billion yuan, an increase of 11.33% from 33.49 billion yuan [2]. - Basic earnings per share rose to 3.41 yuan, a 12.91% increase from 3.02 yuan [2]. Business Segments - The smart home business generated revenue of 167.20 billion yuan, accounting for 66.58% of total revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 13.31% [3][8]. - The ToB (business-to-business) segment, focusing on commercial and industrial solutions, achieved revenue of 64.54 billion yuan, representing 25.70% of total revenue, with a growth of 20.79% [7][8]. - The new energy and industrial technology sectors saw revenue growth rates of 28.61% and 24.18%, respectively [7][9]. International Expansion - Midea's overseas revenue reached 107.19 billion yuan, a 17.70% increase from 91.08 billion yuan, constituting 42.69% of total revenue [2][8]. - The company expanded its manufacturing capabilities in Thailand and Indonesia, with a total of 63 manufacturing bases globally, 41 of which are located overseas [4]. - Midea's overseas e-commerce sales increased by 30%, with some regions exceeding 50% growth [6]. Strategic Initiatives - Midea is focusing on direct-to-consumer (DTC) strategies, enhancing inventory turnover rates by 10% and achieving a stock fulfillment rate of over 93% [3]. - The company has integrated over 20,000 stores with platforms like Meituan and Douyin, contributing to over 200,000 orders in the first half of the year [3]. - Midea's acquisition of the European kitchen appliance brand TEKA is part of its strategy to deepen its market presence in Europe [4]. Future Outlook - The company aims to continue its transformation towards commercial and industrial solutions, which are currently experiencing rapid growth [12]. - Midea's management emphasizes efficiency improvements and value chain enhancements as key strategies to navigate the competitive landscape of the home appliance market [11].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the three major home appliance giants in A-shares shows significant differentiation, with Midea leading, Haier in the middle, and Gree lagging behind in the first half of 2025 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Midea Group reported a revenue increase of 15.58% year-on-year to 251.12 billion yuan and a net profit increase of 25.04% to 26.01 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [1] - Haier Smart Home achieved a revenue growth of 10.22% year-on-year to 156.49 billion yuan [7] - Gree Electric's revenue decreased by 2.46% year-on-year to 97.33 billion yuan, while its net profit increased by 1.95% to 14.41 billion yuan [2] Group 2: Dividend Policies - Midea Group and Haier Smart Home plan to implement mid-year dividends for 2025, with total dividends of 3.80 billion yuan and 2.51 billion yuan respectively [4] - Gree Electric announced plans not to distribute cash dividends or issue bonus shares [3] Group 3: Business Segments - Midea Group's smart home business revenue grew by 13.31% year-on-year to 167.20 billion yuan, accounting for 66.58% of total revenue [8] - Gree Electric's consumer appliance business revenue declined by 5.09% year-on-year to 76.28 billion yuan, making up 78.38% of total revenue [9][10] - Midea Group's commercial and industrial solutions revenue increased by 20.79% to 64.54 billion yuan, representing 25.70% of total revenue [25] Group 4: International Market Performance - In the overseas market, Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, and Gree Electric saw revenue growth of 17.70%, 11.70%, and 10.19% respectively [14] - Midea Group's overseas revenue reached 107.19 billion yuan, accounting for 42.69% of total revenue, while Haier's overseas revenue was 79.08 billion yuan, making up 50.53% of total revenue [16][17] Group 5: Future Strategies - Midea Group aims to increase its overseas revenue to exceed 50% of total revenue in the long term [20] - Haier Smart Home focuses on high-end brand strategies in overseas markets and anticipates growth in smart and green appliances due to urbanization and consumption upgrades [18] - Midea Group is also focusing on the development of humanoid robots and plans to enhance its capabilities in this area [25][27]

Core Viewpoint - Midea Group demonstrates robust performance with a strong focus on both B-end and C-end business growth, leading to a "buy" rating from Guojin Securities [1][6] Financial Performance - For Q2 2025, Midea Group reported revenue of 123.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.59 billion, up 15.1% year-on-year [2] C-end Business Analysis - The C-end segment shows accelerated growth with a focus on high-end domestic sales and an increase in overseas OBM (Original Brand Manufacturer) share, achieving a revenue of 167.2 billion in the smart home business for H1 2025, a 13.31% increase year-on-year [3] - The retail sales of Colmo and Toshiba brands surged over 60% year-on-year, with nearly 1,700 Colmo stores established across more than 280 cities by June 2025 [3] B-end Business Analysis - The B-end segment continues to deepen its layout with a revenue of 64.54 billion in H1 2025, reflecting a 20.8% year-on-year growth, and accounting for 25.7% of total revenue, an increase of over 1 percentage point [4] - Key areas such as new energy and industrial technology saw a revenue increase of 28.6%, maintaining a leading position in air conditioning compressor global market share [4] - The smart building technology segment grew by 24.2%, significantly outperforming the industry average, while robotics and automation revenue increased by 8.3% [4] Profitability and Cash Flow - Midea Group's Q2 2025 gross margin was 26.2%, slightly down by 0.4% year-on-year, influenced by business structure and domestic pricing strategies [4] - Operating cash flow for Q2 2025 was 22.96 billion, a 17% increase year-on-year, indicating strong liquidity with contract liabilities at 38.65 billion [5] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 43.0 billion, 47.86 billion, and 52.73 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 11.6%, 11.3%, and 10.2% respectively [6] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE valuation of 13.2, 11.8, and 10.7 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [6]

Core Insights - Midea Group reported a significant increase in both revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 251.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 15.58%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 26.01 billion yuan, up 25.04% [2] Financial Performance - The smart home business generated revenue of 167.20 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.31% - The commercial and industrial solutions segment achieved revenue of 64.54 billion yuan, marking a growth of 20.79% [2] - The overall gross margin for the smart home business was 28.52%, down 0.84 percentage points year-on-year, while the commercial and industrial solutions segment's gross margin was 21.25%, down 0.81 percentage points [2] Market Dynamics - The domestic air conditioning market saw retail sales of 126.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.4%, driven by policy incentives, price competition, and high temperatures [2] - The competitive pricing environment has led to a decline in average industry prices, with the share of sales in the online market for air conditioners priced below 22,000 yuan rising to 35.2% [2] Regional Performance - Domestic revenue for Midea reached 143.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 14.05%, while overseas revenue was 107.19 billion yuan, up 17.7% [2] Management Changes - Midea appointed Wang Jianguo as the new Executive President, transitioning from his previous role as Vice President [3] - Zhao Lei has taken over as the President of Midea's Smart Home Business Group, succeeding Wang Jianguo [4]

Industry Overview - The Chinese home appliance industry is undergoing a strategic transformation from scale-driven to value-driven amidst profound changes in global manufacturing [1] - The 2024 performance of the industry shows a stark contrast, with leading companies like Midea, Haier, and Hisense achieving revenue and profit growth, while Skyworth faces significant declines due to structural imbalances [1] Midea Group - Midea Group reported total revenue of 409.1 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.44%, and a net profit of 38.5 billion yuan, up 14.29%, marking a historical high [2][3] - The company’s cash flow from operating activities reached 60.5 billion yuan, 1.56 times its net profit, indicating strong profitability [2] - Midea has successfully established a dual-driven model of "smart home + commercial and industrial solutions," with ToB business revenue exceeding 100 billion yuan for the first time, reaching 104.5 billion yuan, a 6.9% increase [3][4] Haier Smart Home - Haier Smart Home achieved revenue of 285.98 billion yuan in 2024, a 4.29% increase, and a net profit of 18.74 billion yuan, up 12.92%, reflecting improved operational quality [5][6] - The Casarte brand continues to lead in the high-end market, with significant growth in revenue, particularly in the fourth quarter [6][7] - Haier's overseas revenue reached 143.81 billion yuan, a 5.43% increase, with emerging markets showing strong performance [7] Hisense Home Appliances - Hisense reported total revenue of 92.75 billion yuan in 2024, an 8.35% increase, and a net profit of 3.35 billion yuan, up 17.99%, showcasing strong profitability [8][9] - The company’s kitchen appliance segment grew by 72%, with significant advancements in product innovation [10] - Hisense's overseas revenue surpassed 35.6 billion yuan, a 28% increase, with a notable rise in market share in Europe and South Africa [11] Skyworth Group - Skyworth's total revenue for 2024 was 65.01 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.8%, with net profit dropping by 46.9% to 568 million yuan, indicating significant operational challenges [12][13] - The company remains heavily reliant on its smart home and photovoltaic businesses, which account for over 80% of total revenue [12][15] - The photovoltaic segment saw a revenue decline of 13.1%, attributed to market challenges and policy uncertainties [15][16] Future Outlook - The home appliance industry is experiencing structural changes, with leading companies strengthening competitive barriers through technological innovation and global expansion [17] - The integration of AI technology into home appliances is reshaping the competitive landscape, with significant market share growth expected for AI-enabled products [17] - The trend of increasing overseas revenue and brand output among leading companies indicates a shift from product export to brand export, with emerging markets becoming key growth drivers [17][18]