米兰（StephenMiran），一位在经济政策领域独树一帜的声音，近年来在美联储与白宫经济顾问委员会（CEA）中的角色引发了广泛关注。他的观点和立 场，常常挑战传统经济学理论及政策实施，尤其是在货币政策领域，他的存在几乎打破了美联储长期以来所遵循的集体决策与渐进主义传统。米兰，作为美 联储理事，同时担任白宫经济顾问委员会主席，展现了与主流经济学家不同的视角，提出了一系列备受争议的政策建议。 米兰的职业背景并不寻常。从波士顿大学生物化学的学术道路到经济学的深度思考，他的转变映射出他独特的思维方式。以休谟的怀疑主义哲学为指引，米 兰不仅在学术上有过系统的训练，还深入金融行业，涉足政策领域。他曾在特朗普政府时期担任财政部高级顾问，参与了包括《CARES法案》在内的重大 经济政策制定。后来，他选择离开商界，加入曼哈顿研究所，提出了关于美国制造业回流、全球贸易重构等话题，逐渐成为特朗普经济政策的核心智囊之 一。 在货币政策方面，米兰的主张引发了广泛讨论。在2023年9月的美联储会议中，米兰提出的降息50个基点的建议，与其他成员支持的25个基点的降息形成了 鲜明对比。米兰认为，美联储的货币政策过于紧缩，已经抑制了经济的 ...

Group 1 - The introduction of free preschool education policy is expected to trigger a structural adjustment in the education industry supply [1][2] - Public kindergartens are expanding, with cities like Beijing and Shenzhen initiating reforms to link fees to services, while the government ensures financial support for public kindergarten teachers [1] - Private kindergartens are facing pressure to transform, with high-end institutions needing to de-capitalize and affordable private kindergartens encouraged to specialize and differentiate [1] Group 2 - The free preschool education policy aims to lower family childcare costs and fundamentally reshape the human capital accumulation mechanism [2] Group 3 - The potential impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts on global capital markets hinges on upcoming U.S. economic data [4] - A scenario where the U.S. labor market deteriorates while inflation remains high could lead to significant market corrections, particularly affecting U.S. assets, while benefiting markets like Hong Kong and A-shares [4] - If the U.S. employment data remains stable, a 25 basis point rate cut in September is likely, which would improve global liquidity and support a mild uptrend in U.S. stocks [4] Group 4 - The U.S. monetary policy decisions will profoundly influence global asset pricing, with potential declines in the U.S. dollar index if interest rates are cut significantly [5] - The persistence of inflation remains a critical variable, as rising energy prices could further elevate inflation levels [5] Group 5 - The end of negative interest rate policies by the European Central Bank may lead to a narrowing interest rate differential between the Eurozone and the U.S., prompting international investors to reduce their holdings in U.S. assets [7] Group 6 - The global trade landscape is shifting from a focus on efficiency and cost to a more complex process of trust reconstruction, indicating a new era of trade dynamics [8] - The current global trade environment emphasizes relationships and political ties over mere pricing, suggesting a need for a balance between trust and efficiency [8]

Group 1 - The U.S. plans to impose tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on countries that have not reached agreements, with tariffs set to take effect on August 7, 2025, rather than the previously announced deadline of August 1, 2025 [1] - The tariffs are expected to increase consumer costs, with estimates suggesting that American households will face an additional annual expenditure of between $2,100 and $3,800 due to these tariffs, disproportionately affecting low-income families [1] - The tariffs will lead to price increases in various sectors, including food, appliances, electronics, and building materials, significantly impacting small and medium-sized enterprises that rely on imported materials [2] Group 2 - The U.S. administration's approach is likely to erode trust among traditional allies, as countries like Canada and Mexico, despite being part of trade agreements, are still included in the tariff list, raising concerns about the reliability of U.S. trade commitments [2] - The unilateral imposition of tariffs may prompt other countries to strengthen their own economic alliances and reduce dependence on the U.S. market, potentially leading to a fragmentation of global trade networks [4] - Legal challenges against the tariffs are emerging, with affected businesses and industry associations filing lawsuits, which could undermine the current policy framework if courts restrict presidential powers regarding tariffs [3] Group 3 - The ongoing tariff strategy may accelerate the trend of "supply chain isolation," leading to fragmented regional industrial networks and diluted overall competitiveness [4] - The unilateral actions of the U.S. government are marginalizing multilateral trade mechanisms like the WTO, as countries begin to seek alternatives to reduce the impact of U.S. sanctions and tariffs [4] - If the U.S. continues to use tariffs as a negotiation tool instead of adhering to established trade rules, it risks diminishing its moral authority in global governance and increasing its vulnerability in future geopolitical confrontations [5]

Group 1 - The core strategy of the tariff policy is not merely to increase tax rates but to impose differentiated tariffs on global trade partners, aiming to reshape the global trade landscape [3][5] - The basic tariff rate will cover over 90% of trade categories, establishing a foundation for subsequent differentiated tariffs [3] - Specific countries face varying additional punitive tariffs, with China at 34%, the EU at 20%, Vietnam at 46%, Japan at 24%, Thailand at 36%, and Indonesia at 19% [3] Group 2 - The automotive industry is significantly impacted, with General Motors reporting a 35% drop in net profit for Q2, warning that tariffs will severely affect future business [8] - The steel and aluminum sectors benefit from a 50% import tariff in the short term, but historical evidence suggests this protection is not sustainable [10] - Semiconductor and pharmaceutical industries face tariffs of 25% and up to 200% respectively, which could disrupt global supply chains and lead to price increases [10] Group 3 - North American container shipping rates have surged by 31%, with average annual household expenses in the U.S. expected to rise by $2,940, potentially pushing core PCE inflation beyond warning levels [10] - Multinational companies are accelerating the relocation of production capacities to Mexico and Southeast Asia to avoid high tariffs, indicating a significant shift in the global trade system [12] - The OECD predicts that U.S. GDP growth may fall below 1% by 2025, highlighting the risk of stagflation with high inflation and low growth [12] Group 4 - China has implemented counter-tariffs on key U.S. products, with semiconductor equipment tariffs reaching 125%, affecting U.S. military production [12] - The EU plans to impose 25% tariffs on U.S. whiskey and automobiles, although its response is limited by energy dependence on U.S. liquefied natural gas [12] - A global backlash is prompting countries to accelerate multilateral trade cooperation and develop alternative settlement mechanisms to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar [12]

Core Insights - The conference emphasized the importance of the futures market in the context of China's financial opening and its role in national strategies and risk management [1] - The global monetary system is undergoing significant changes, leading to a long-term bull market for gold, with potential depreciation of the US dollar and appreciation of other currencies [3] - The Chinese stock market is expected to perform well by 2025, driven by improved investor sentiment, declining discount rates, and supportive government policies [4] - The uncertain global market environment is reshaping asset pricing logic, with structural opportunities in equity markets and unclear performance in the commodity market [5] - The conference featured various sub-forums addressing key topics such as global trade restructuring and emerging technologies, providing valuable market analysis and investment direction [7] Group 1 - The futures market is positioned to play a significant role in China's financial landscape, focusing on collaboration with partners to enhance market stability and innovation [1] - The chief macroeconomic analyst highlighted the potential for a long-term bull market in gold due to shifts in global trust and currency dynamics [3] - The strategy chief expressed optimism for the Chinese stock market, citing reduced impact from economic fluctuations and favorable policy measures [4] Group 2 - The research director noted that global uncertainties are altering asset pricing, with a focus on structural opportunities in equities and a cautious outlook on commodities [5] - The conference included multiple sub-forums that explored critical issues in the market, aiming to enhance investor understanding and strategy [7]

申万宏源策略 . 以下文章来源于申万宏源策略 ，作者申万宏源策略 本周A股快速出清特朗普极限施压引发的悲观预期后，中央汇金发挥平准基金功能，特朗普延后其他国家关税加征，全球股市超跌反弹。反弹兑 现后，我们认为后续基本面趋势验证偏弱的阶段，A股仍需磨底。具体关注三个问题：1. 关税影响是美国滞胀交易，国内衰退交易。后续外需回 落压力逐步显现，二季度即便有"抢转口"，外需回落的方向不变，三季度回落压力可能放大。这个阶段，市场对政策对冲的要求可能明显提高， 总体风险偏好上行受限。2. 静态测算下，美对华提高关税税率会扩大A股的业绩负面影响，美对其他国家的关税会减缓对中国实际GDP的冲击(比 较优势)，中国的关税反击会减缓中国名义GDP的冲击(进口商品的比价效应)。"美国关税提升——中国对等反击"的税率水平，已提升到了没有边 际影响的阶段。但美国对其他国家关税减免，还是可能放大静态业绩影响(但也会放大我们应对和腾挪的空间)。所以，A股盈利预期还有一定下 修空间。3. 容易凝聚市场共识方向，主要是消费和科技。而对冲政策发力，消费结构性改善是大概率，但消费改善的持续性、消费刺激对总量的 拉动效果仍有待观察。科技本就处于调 ...