投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2026-02-27 美伊和谈导致油价延续⾼波动，化⼯下 游稳步复⼯ 原油价格在亚洲盘时间段下跌，因彭博报道，美伊核谈判的调解方表 示，目前讨论进展积极，谈判将于周四晚些时候继续进行。美伊正在日内 瓦举行第三轮核谈判，距离特朗普总统设定的达成协议最后期限仅剩几 天。作为调解方的阿曼外交大臣表示，双方交流了"富有创意且积极的想 法"。原油市场本身略显疲态，Brent近月价差在周四盘中一度走弱至每 桶-3美分，短暂进入contango结构，同一指标在上周某一时点曾高达每桶 +69美分；这是自2024年以来，该价差首次在非到期日进入contango结 构。（以上信息来自彭博终端） 板块逻辑： 化工跟随原油进入弱势调整格局中，烯烃表现明显弱于芳烃。化工期 货主力合约小幅下跌后，各品种的基差大都开始走强，现货表现强于期 货。从周度开工看，聚酯和织造开工从春节前的77.6%、0分别升至79. 7%、12%，产业链下游稳步复工中（数据来源CCF）。原料开工本身看，PT A和苯乙烯周度开工略有攀升，PP和PE开工周度环比下滑，整体变动不 大，春季 ...

Market Overview - From mid to late January, live pig futures and spot prices experienced a smooth decline, with the LH03 contract dropping from a peak of 12,160 to below 11,000, a decrease of 1.32%. National standard pig prices fell from 13.2 yuan/kg to 11.95 yuan/kg, a drop of 9.5%, while fat pig prices decreased from 13.87 yuan/kg to 13.16 yuan/kg, down 5.1% [20][21] - The primary reason for the price shift from increase to decrease is attributed to the National Bureau of Statistics reporting a decline in the breeding sow population to 39.61 million by the end of December 2024, coupled with slow capacity reduction and diminishing demand for cured meat [20][21] Fundamental Analysis Industry Profit and Capacity Cycle - The core indicator of the pig cycle is the breeding sow inventory, with industry profitability being the key determinant of changes in this inventory. Typically, industry losses lead to capacity reduction, while profitability halts further reduction [21] - From June 2021 to June 2022, the industry faced continuous losses, resulting in a decrease in breeding sow inventory from 44 million to 41.92 million, a reduction of 2.08 million. Similarly, from December 2022 to May 2024, the inventory dropped from 43.90 million to 39.86 million, a decrease of 1.04 million [21] - The current loss period lasted from September to December, with a reduction of 740,000 sows from approximately 4.035 million to 3.961 million. The data from January indicates a slight increase in breeding sows to 5.1882 million, suggesting potential for further capacity reduction in the future [21] Piglet Price Recovery - The average price of piglets across 500 markets rose to 26.87 yuan/kg in the fifth week of January, an increase of 3.5% week-on-week, although the weekly growth rate has narrowed by 1%. Year-on-year, prices are down 23.2% [23][24] - The average price for 7 kg piglets from large-scale farms is 357.62 yuan/head, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 2.2% and a year-on-year drop of 33.2%. Optimism regarding capacity reduction has strengthened demand for piglets, leading to a broad price increase, although the upcoming Spring Festival is expected to limit further growth [23][24] Post-Festival Weight Increase - In December 2025 to January 2026, due to a temporary rebound in pig prices, actual slaughter exceeded targets, with over 14 million pigs slaughtered. However, plans for February show a significant reduction in slaughtering due to the Spring Festival, with a planned output of 12.0586 million pigs, a decrease of 15.33% from January [26] - The average weight of pigs slaughtered on February 6 was 123.26 kg, a slight decrease from the previous week. The price gap between standard and fat pigs has widened to 1.21 yuan/kg, indicating potential for weight increases post-festival as consumption slows [26] Consumption Trends - The slaughtering rate for enterprises was reported at 38.49% for the week of February 5, an increase of 1.63 percentage points week-on-week and a year-on-year increase of 27.65 percentage points. However, historical data shows that rates typically exceed 40% during this period [28] - As the Spring Festival approaches, demand for meat is expected to rise, leading to increased slaughtering rates and a gradual increase in the price gap between live and processed pigs [28] Futures Market Structure - The current structure of the May contract reflects a contango situation, indicating high industry inventory and sustained pressure on prices. The basis for the May contract is currently 1,075 yuan/ton, with expectations of continued weakness in the spot market [30] - The recent decline in prices has resulted in a contango structure for the first three quarters of the year, suggesting that futures prices will remain under pressure until a significant change in market conditions occurs [30] Summary and Outlook - The slow pace of capacity reduction combined with the contango structure suggests that live pig futures will remain under pressure in the long term. The pre-festival period may see increased demand, but post-festival, consumption is expected to weaken significantly while supply remains ample, leading to downward pressure on prices [33]

【冠通期货研究报告】 软商品日报：contango 结构下的溢价 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 7 日 棉花：近期棉花价格延续偏强走势。受新年度棉花种植面积减少，供应缩减 预期支撑，棉花继续上涨。棉纱市场则相对平静，纺企小幅涨价，下游新订单反 馈不积极，实际涨幅十分有限。目前下游织造环节存在去库压力，又逢年底，补 库并不积极。 由于上游涨价并未向下进行有效传导，价格上涨空间受到一定制约，不过商 品市场火热使得棉花仍然保持偏强走势，预估最近 1-2 周保持偏强走势。 白糖：印度马邦糖业委员会办公室近日发布报告显示，2025/26 榨季截至 2026 年 1 月 5 日，该邦已有 195 家糖厂开榨，较上榨季同期的 199 家减少 4 家； 共入榨甘蔗 6026.1 万吨，较上榨季同期的 4063 万吨增加 1963.1 万吨；产糖 532.27 万吨，平均产糖率 8.83%。经测算，配额内巴西糖加工完税估算成本 3982 元/吨，配额外巴西糖加工完税估算成本为 5057 元/吨；与日照白糖现货价比， 配额内巴西糖加工完税估算利润为 1538 元/吨，配额外巴西糖加工完税估算利润 为 463 元/吨。 --冠通 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state and future outlook of the pig farming industry, highlighting the imbalance between supply and demand, the impact of seasonal factors, and the expected price movements in the near and long term [4][6][14]. Supply Side - The production capacity of breeding sows remains high, with no effective reduction despite long-term profitability in the industry. The industry is expected to face a dual loss situation for piglets and fattening pigs starting from late September [10]. - Even if the culling of sows begins in October, significant supply pressure relief will not occur until after August 2026. The supply may remain excessive until June 2026, depending on the culling pace of the breeding sector [10]. Demand Side - Seasonal demand is anticipated to increase due to the drop in temperatures, with a boost in demand for cured meats in November and December, as well as pre-festival consumption leading up to the Spring Festival [12]. - The absolute low prices may also stimulate consumption, potentially providing a floor for short-term pig prices [12]. Market Outlook - In the near term, low-priced contracts have limited downward space, but there is also no upward momentum, with future movements expected to follow spot market fluctuations [5][14]. - The current contango structure in the futures market indicates that both near-month and long-month contracts have seen significant declines, with the near-month contracts approaching cash flow costs [14]. - The price of live pigs has dropped below 12 yuan/kg, leading to panic selling among some farmers, which has further accelerated the price decline. However, the weight of pigs continues to increase, indicating that short-term capacity clearing is unlikely without a significant demand increase [8][10].