1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of crude oil continued to be highly volatile due to the Iran - US peace talks, and the downstream of the chemical industry steadily resumed work. The chemical industry followed crude oil into a weak adjustment pattern, with olefins performing significantly weaker than aromatics. The downstream of the industrial chain is steadily resuming work, and the raw material start - up has little change overall. The spring maintenance generally starts from March to May. The report expects that crude oil will continue to have high volatility, and chemical prices will continue to fluctuate and consolidate [2]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Market Views - **Crude Oil**: The next round of Iran - US negotiations will be held in early March, and geopolitics dominates the short - term market. The supply of crude oil is in a loose pattern this year, and the Brent spread has weakened significantly. Currently, the oil price is in the stage of geopolitical premium fermentation dominated by the Iran - US situation. The short - term outlook is for a volatile market [9]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price fluctuates in a narrow range. The long - term supply of asphalt raw materials is abundant. The current market focuses on the progress of the Iran - US negotiations, and the asphalt cracking spread has decreased significantly. The high - profit may drive refineries to switch to alternative raw materials, and the supply of heavy oil is expected to be loose, which may drive the asphalt futures price down. The asphalt inventory is accumulating, and the long - term valuation is expected to decline. The medium - term outlook is for a volatile market [9][10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil futures price still has a relatively high geopolitical premium. The US is helping Venezuela increase oil production, and the supply of heavy oil is expected to surge in the long - term, putting pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil. In the short - term, the market still highly focuses on the progress of the Iran - US negotiations. Once an agreement is reached, it may have a greater negative impact on high - sulfur fuel oil. The medium - term outlook is for a volatile market [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates with crude oil. The decline in fuel oil exports from Brazil, Kuwait, and Nigeria in February has alleviated the oversupply expectation of low - sulfur fuel oil. Although low - sulfur fuel oil faces negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution, its current valuation is low and it is expected to follow the changes in crude oil. The medium - term outlook is for a volatile market [13]. - **PX**: The Asian PX price is generally firm, but the domestic market sentiment is poor, and the PX futures price has declined. The maintenance of some devices has been implemented, and the market expectations have been realized. It is expected that the high - supply pressure of PX in March will be alleviated, and the demand support from downstream PTA devices is increasing. The short - term price of PX will fluctuate under the resonance of cost support and market sentiment, and the medium - term logic of buying on dips remains. The medium - term outlook is for a volatile market [15]. - **PTA**: Some PTA devices have restarted earlier than expected, and the spot profit is under pressure in the short - term. With the restart of some devices, the PTA load is expected to increase in the short - term, and the factory inventory has increased significantly. It is expected that the price will remain at a high level in the short - term. The medium - term outlook is for a volatile market [16][17]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price of pure benzene fluctuates. Before the festival, the downstream replenishment of pure benzene basically ended, and the trading became lighter. After the festival, pure benzene opened higher to make up for the increase. The fundamentals of pure benzene may be in a transition period, and the inventory pressure is still large, but it is expected to improve in Q1 compared with Q4. The medium - term outlook is for a volatile market [21]. - **Styrene**: Styrene fluctuates due to seasonal inventory accumulation and crude oil fluctuations. Before the festival, the supply - demand of styrene became more relaxed, and the price declined. After the festival, the styrene futures price increased to make up for the increase. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the festival, the restart of some devices, and the resumption of work of downstream enterprises. The medium - term outlook is for a volatile market [22]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price of ethylene glycol rebounds limitedly due to supply - demand pressure, and the support at the bottom is increasing. The inventory pressure of ethylene glycol ports is relatively large, and the supply remains at a high level in the short - term, resulting in price pressure. In the medium - term, there is a weak improvement expectation in March and April, and the price has limited downward space. The short - term price will be in the range of 3600 - 3900 yuan/ton. The medium - term outlook is for a volatile market [24][26]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The downstream orders of polyester staple fiber have not recovered, and the driving force is limited. The price of polyester raw materials has回调, and polyester staple fiber has followed the decline. The downstream yarn mills' load has increased rapidly, but the post - festival orders are still few, and the raw material procurement is mostly on the sidelines. The short - term price will follow the upstream and maintain a volatile trend, and the processing fee has stronger support at the bottom. The medium - term outlook is for a volatile market [27][28]. - **Polyester Bottle Chips**: The driving force of polyester bottle chips is limited, and it follows passively. The price of upstream polyester raw materials has declined, and the price of polyester bottle chips has followed the weak fluctuation. The trading atmosphere in the polyester bottle chip market has improved. The short - term price is expected to continue to follow the raw material cost. The medium - term outlook is for a volatile market [29][30]. - **Methanol**: Overseas geopolitical disturbances continue, and methanol fluctuates widely. The price of methanol has declined weakly. The inventory of the inland market is increasing, and the coastal market is still under high - inventory pressure. The Iranian methanol devices are expected to resume production in March. The market sentiment is affected by the macro - situation, and the futures price is weak. The medium - term outlook is for a volatile market [31]. - **Urea**: There is a co - existence of demand support and price - guidance pressure, and urea fluctuates and consolidates. The supply and demand of urea have both increased. The daily production of the industry is stable at a high level, and the agricultural demand for spring plowing in some regions is supporting, and the industrial demand is expected to increase steadily. The spot price is close to the price - guidance upper limit, and the new orders are more cautious. The medium - term outlook is for a volatile market [32]. - **Plastic**: The downstream of plastic gradually resumes work after the festival, and it fluctuates. The oil price fluctuates, and the commodity sentiment has improved after the festival. The inventory pressure in the middle of the plastic industry is not large, and the demand is in the transition between peak and off - peak seasons. There is still an expectation of macro - consumption policy support. The medium - term outlook is for a volatile market [35]. - **PP**: There are slight disturbances in the propane end, and PP fluctuates. The oil price fluctuates, and there are short - term disturbances in overseas propane, which indirectly boosts PP. The PDH profit of PP refineries is still under pressure, and the downstream is in the transition between peak and off - peak seasons. The resumption of work progress needs to be observed. There is still an expectation of macro - consumption policy support. The medium - term outlook is for a volatile market [36]. - **PL**: The powder profit is still under pressure, and PL fluctuates. Enterprises generally maintain stable prices, and high - price goods are under pressure. The downstream users purchase on a need - to - buy basis, and the short - term powder profit is weak. The downstream factories are expected to resume work around the Lantern Festival. The medium - term outlook is for a volatile market [37]. - **PVC**: The fundamental driving force is insufficient, and PVC may fluctuate. Geopolitical factors affect the commodity market sentiment. The upstream of PVC will have spring maintenance, but the "rush for exports" will cool down, and the high inventory is difficult to reduce smoothly. The medium - term outlook is for a volatile market [38]. - **Caustic Soda**: The cost has decreased, and caustic soda is under cautious pressure. Geopolitical factors affect the commodity market sentiment. The high inventory still suppresses the market, and the short - term futures price is mainly priced by cost. The comprehensive cost of caustic soda has decreased. The medium - term outlook is for a volatile market [39]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - **Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring** - **Inter - period Spread**: The report provides the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc., including the latest values and changes [41]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the basis and warehouse receipts of varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., along with their changes [42]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of different varieties are presented, including the latest values and changes [43]. - **Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring** - Although there are headings for various varieties such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., there is no specific content provided in the report.

Market Overview - From mid to late January, live pig futures and spot prices experienced a smooth decline, with the LH03 contract dropping from a peak of 12,160 to below 11,000, a decrease of 1.32%. National standard pig prices fell from 13.2 yuan/kg to 11.95 yuan/kg, a drop of 9.5%, while fat pig prices decreased from 13.87 yuan/kg to 13.16 yuan/kg, down 5.1% [20][21] - The primary reason for the price shift from increase to decrease is attributed to the National Bureau of Statistics reporting a decline in the breeding sow population to 39.61 million by the end of December 2024, coupled with slow capacity reduction and diminishing demand for cured meat [20][21] Fundamental Analysis Industry Profit and Capacity Cycle - The core indicator of the pig cycle is the breeding sow inventory, with industry profitability being the key determinant of changes in this inventory. Typically, industry losses lead to capacity reduction, while profitability halts further reduction [21] - From June 2021 to June 2022, the industry faced continuous losses, resulting in a decrease in breeding sow inventory from 44 million to 41.92 million, a reduction of 2.08 million. Similarly, from December 2022 to May 2024, the inventory dropped from 43.90 million to 39.86 million, a decrease of 1.04 million [21] - The current loss period lasted from September to December, with a reduction of 740,000 sows from approximately 4.035 million to 3.961 million. The data from January indicates a slight increase in breeding sows to 5.1882 million, suggesting potential for further capacity reduction in the future [21] Piglet Price Recovery - The average price of piglets across 500 markets rose to 26.87 yuan/kg in the fifth week of January, an increase of 3.5% week-on-week, although the weekly growth rate has narrowed by 1%. Year-on-year, prices are down 23.2% [23][24] - The average price for 7 kg piglets from large-scale farms is 357.62 yuan/head, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 2.2% and a year-on-year drop of 33.2%. Optimism regarding capacity reduction has strengthened demand for piglets, leading to a broad price increase, although the upcoming Spring Festival is expected to limit further growth [23][24] Post-Festival Weight Increase - In December 2025 to January 2026, due to a temporary rebound in pig prices, actual slaughter exceeded targets, with over 14 million pigs slaughtered. However, plans for February show a significant reduction in slaughtering due to the Spring Festival, with a planned output of 12.0586 million pigs, a decrease of 15.33% from January [26] - The average weight of pigs slaughtered on February 6 was 123.26 kg, a slight decrease from the previous week. The price gap between standard and fat pigs has widened to 1.21 yuan/kg, indicating potential for weight increases post-festival as consumption slows [26] Consumption Trends - The slaughtering rate for enterprises was reported at 38.49% for the week of February 5, an increase of 1.63 percentage points week-on-week and a year-on-year increase of 27.65 percentage points. However, historical data shows that rates typically exceed 40% during this period [28] - As the Spring Festival approaches, demand for meat is expected to rise, leading to increased slaughtering rates and a gradual increase in the price gap between live and processed pigs [28] Futures Market Structure - The current structure of the May contract reflects a contango situation, indicating high industry inventory and sustained pressure on prices. The basis for the May contract is currently 1,075 yuan/ton, with expectations of continued weakness in the spot market [30] - The recent decline in prices has resulted in a contango structure for the first three quarters of the year, suggesting that futures prices will remain under pressure until a significant change in market conditions occurs [30] Summary and Outlook - The slow pace of capacity reduction combined with the contango structure suggests that live pig futures will remain under pressure in the long term. The pre-festival period may see increased demand, but post-festival, consumption is expected to weaken significantly while supply remains ample, leading to downward pressure on prices [33]

【冠通期货研究报告】 软商品日报：contango 结构下的溢价 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 7 日 棉花：近期棉花价格延续偏强走势。受新年度棉花种植面积减少，供应缩减 预期支撑，棉花继续上涨。棉纱市场则相对平静，纺企小幅涨价，下游新订单反 馈不积极，实际涨幅十分有限。目前下游织造环节存在去库压力，又逢年底，补 库并不积极。 由于上游涨价并未向下进行有效传导，价格上涨空间受到一定制约，不过商 品市场火热使得棉花仍然保持偏强走势，预估最近 1-2 周保持偏强走势。 白糖：印度马邦糖业委员会办公室近日发布报告显示，2025/26 榨季截至 2026 年 1 月 5 日，该邦已有 195 家糖厂开榨，较上榨季同期的 199 家减少 4 家； 共入榨甘蔗 6026.1 万吨，较上榨季同期的 4063 万吨增加 1963.1 万吨；产糖 532.27 万吨，平均产糖率 8.83%。经测算，配额内巴西糖加工完税估算成本 3982 元/吨，配额外巴西糖加工完税估算成本为 5057 元/吨；与日照白糖现货价比， 配额内巴西糖加工完税估算利润为 1538 元/吨，配额外巴西糖加工完税估算利润 为 463 元/吨。 --冠通 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state and future outlook of the pig farming industry, highlighting the imbalance between supply and demand, the impact of seasonal factors, and the expected price movements in the near and long term [4][6][14]. Supply Side - The production capacity of breeding sows remains high, with no effective reduction despite long-term profitability in the industry. The industry is expected to face a dual loss situation for piglets and fattening pigs starting from late September [10]. - Even if the culling of sows begins in October, significant supply pressure relief will not occur until after August 2026. The supply may remain excessive until June 2026, depending on the culling pace of the breeding sector [10]. Demand Side - Seasonal demand is anticipated to increase due to the drop in temperatures, with a boost in demand for cured meats in November and December, as well as pre-festival consumption leading up to the Spring Festival [12]. - The absolute low prices may also stimulate consumption, potentially providing a floor for short-term pig prices [12]. Market Outlook - In the near term, low-priced contracts have limited downward space, but there is also no upward momentum, with future movements expected to follow spot market fluctuations [5][14]. - The current contango structure in the futures market indicates that both near-month and long-month contracts have seen significant declines, with the near-month contracts approaching cash flow costs [14]. - The price of live pigs has dropped below 12 yuan/kg, leading to panic selling among some farmers, which has further accelerated the price decline. However, the weight of pigs continues to increase, indicating that short-term capacity clearing is unlikely without a significant demand increase [8][10].