煤焦分析师 张 林 从业资格号：F0243334 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0000866 客服电话：400-618-6767 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 煤焦行情展望 3月煤焦承压运行，关注宏观政策变化 黑色研究团队 2026年2月28日 主要观点 价格和估值：2月煤焦现货市场窄幅震荡，煤焦期价震荡下跌，基差小幅波动。 供需和驱动：2月份，受春节放假影响，由于假期煤矿停工停产、公路物流停滞及市场参与者休假等多重因素，国内双焦市场呈现明 显的供需两弱格局，价格缺乏明确单边驱动，整体维持震荡偏弱运行态势，市场交投氛围降至阶段性低位。春节假期结束后的几个工作 日内，煤矿陆续复产，蒙煤通关恢复正常，焦企维持稳定生产，铁水产量较节前小幅增加。 观点总结和判断：进入3月，主产区煤矿将全面复工复产，供应将明显恢复。同时蒙古煤通关量预计将维持高位，进一步增加国内供 给，导致煤矿端累库压力加大。不过，需要关注"两会"期间产区安全生产检查是否会对煤矿复产节奏形成短暂干扰。需求端，3月钢厂 将逐步复产，带动铁水产量回升，对双焦的需求存在刚性支撑。不过，由于终端钢材需求复苏力度存疑， ...

2月27日，A股涨跌互现，3271只个股上涨。资源股表现强势，科技股则受隔夜英伟达股价下跌影响出现回调。值得注意的是，杠杆资金热度有所回暖。 受访人士指出，临近两会，政策预期进入密集发酵期，增量信息的释放或将加剧市场结构性震荡。若业绩与估值出现背离，高估值板块将面临调整压力。 建议均衡配置、攻守兼备，关注商业航天、AI应用等方向。 钢铁、煤炭、有色领涨 指数方面，沪指收涨0.39%报4162.88点，创业板指收跌1.04%报3310.3点，深证成指微跌0.06%。科创50、上证50收红，沪深300、北证50则微幅收跌。 交易量能方面，三市日成交额较前一交易日缩减504亿元，降至2.51万亿元。节后杠杆资金明显升温，截至2月26日，三市两融余额已增至2.67万亿元。 个股涨跌互现，全市场3271只个股上涨，涨停股91只；2068只个股收跌，跌停股1只。 活跃个股方面，日成交额超100亿元的有12只。通信设备板块回调，中际旭创（300308）、新易盛（300502）跌幅近7%，胜宏科技（300476）收跌 3.55%。电子元件个股华胜天成（600410）涨逾6%。包钢股份（600010）涨近9%，北方稀土（600 ...

Group 1 - The market is expected to enter a new trend in March, with previous fluctuations being atypical and driven by frequent capital rotation [1] - The end of policy suppression expectations has led to a period of free market fluctuations, with signs of stabilization in the Hong Kong market and U.S. stocks like Nvidia [1][2] - The focus for future market performance will be on where earnings can continue to grow, with a preference for gradual increases to avoid policy intervention [2] Group 2 - Current investment directions include rare metals, aerospace satellites, resources, and components related to chips, indicating a sustained capital inflow rather than short-term speculation [2] - The upcoming Two Sessions in March are anticipated to have limited unexpected policy changes, as local governments have already planned their strategies [2] - The recent week has shown significant changes in the industrial commodity market, while agricultural products and metals are trending positively, suggesting a cautious optimism for the first half of the year [2]

大摩指，对港股及A股中期保持正面看法，但短期港股压力可能持续，除非看到三件事情出现，即1） 大型互联网公司如腾讯 （00700）、阿里巴巴（09988）在大型语言模型（LLM）上的突破，恢复投资 者对AI能力的信心；2）三月业绩期更正面，例如在重启H200芯片采购后有更积极的资本支出计划，或 恢复股份回购；3）美股市场趋向稳定。 智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利发表报告指，A股投资情绪指标在农历新年后随成交量回升及对两会预 期升温而有所改善。但受人工智能颠覆影响的担忧及竞争压力，离岸中资股仍面临挑战。大型平台公司 的AI能力提升、盈利改善及外部市场的稳定将是未来的观察关键。 尽管A股情绪好转，但本周离岸中资股承压，尤其是恒生科技指数，大摩认为，主要因服务相关行业在 恒指权重较高，其受到全球AI颠覆叙事的影响尤为显著。此外，电商平台间的价格竞争加剧，拖累大 型平台公司的盈利修复前景。而近期有关电商及AI技术发展的消息促使投资者减少对更广泛的互联网 和软件领域直接竞争对手的投资。 然而，大摩指，维持相对较高的增长目标并不必然意味着更强的刺激，因财政立场预期与2025年大致持 平，预算赤字率为4%，扩展赤字率为11. ...

从客户数量来看，根据2025年中报，国泰中证A500ETF总户数位列同类首位，是第二名的三倍多，更多 人选择中证A500ETF（159338），感兴趣的投资者或可关注中证A500ETF（159338）。 招商证券指出，历史上两会前后A股存在一定日历效应，这主要受益于市场对两会稳增长政策和产业政 策的预期，且融资资金交易活跃。行业表现层面，两会前后基础化工、有色金属、建筑材料等顺周期行 业表现突出，上涨概率较高。随着两会结束，稳增长政策逐渐落地，顺周期板块上涨概率更高且平均收 益相对也较高。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 相较沪深300而言，中证A500强调行业均衡与细分龙头，其风格更分散、成长性暴露更高，能在产业结 构升级周期提供更优的Beta底盘。所以，其指数历史走势更优。截至2025年末，中证A500指数基日以 来涨幅高达464.28%，而同期沪深300指数为361.15%，超额为103.13%。 ...

春节动向与资金流向：主被动外资均放缓 港股被动外资流入同样放缓，为9.3亿美元（vs. 上周17.9亿），但流出A股1.6亿美元（vs. 上周流入2.6亿）。 资金来源上，专注新兴市场的基金流入最多，亚洲除日本基金同样转为流入。 2南向：尚未开通，将于2月24日初八重启。 主动外资已连续六周流入，但港股依然疲弱，尤其是恒科，春节期间甚至2月以来都表现垫底，主要是受权 重股如腾讯和阿里拖累，若不是周一大幅反弹，那恒科的落后与"新老科技"的分化将更显著。 得益于9天长假，春节期间旅游消费餐饮和出行均至少实现温和的高个位数增长，不过人均支出预计基本持平甚至 可能小幅低于2025年（2025年春节总消费6770亿，人均1351元，日均169元），票房则因去年高基数下滑40%。 1外资：EPFR口径（截至周三），主动外资第6周流入，但继续放缓，港股流入3.6亿美元（vs. 上周4.4亿），A股 流入0.9亿美元（vs. 上周1.1亿）。 港股被动外资流入同样放缓，为9.3亿美元（vs. 上周17.9亿），但流出A股1.6亿美元（vs. 上周流入2.6亿）。 资金来源上，专注新兴市场的基金流入 春节动向与资金流向：主被动 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing a significant style shift, with strong performance in dividend sectors such as coal, oil and gas, and banking, while previous hot topics like AI applications are retreating [2][9] - The market's inclination towards dividend sectors is driven by a decrease in risk appetite and a preference for low-valuation, stable-profit sectors as investors seek safety ahead of the upcoming Spring Festival [2][9] - The upcoming two sessions after the Spring Festival are expected to boost market risk appetite, favoring small-cap stocks [3][9] Sector Analysis Coal Sector - The coal sector has seen a substantial rise, evolving from a purely cyclical asset to a composite investment target with high dividend defensive attributes and growth potential due to long-term supply constraints [6] Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector is experiencing an upward trend, supported by government policies aimed at stabilizing the market, including relaxed lending and purchasing restrictions [6] - The sector is expected to benefit from ongoing policy support and improving supply-demand dynamics, with a focus on companies with strong land reserves and those returning to stable growth [6] New Energy Sector - The new energy sector, particularly solar equipment and batteries, remains active, driven by global carbon neutrality goals and ongoing demand for lithium batteries, solar energy, wind energy, and energy storage [7] - The government is implementing reforms to prevent unhealthy competition in the solar sector, with significant investment expected in new energy projects [7] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to balance stability and flexibility in their strategies, focusing on dividend sectors for valuation recovery before the Spring Festival while preparing for potential growth opportunities in small-cap stocks post-festival [3][10]

在"两会会客厅"记者对话省水利厅党组书记、厅长易耘，也把网友的提问带到了现场。 省水利厅党组书记、厅长易耘 网友提问：在应对季节性干旱、保障城乡供水方面有哪些规划？ 易耘回答："季节性干旱最容易发生在冬季和春季交替的时候，我们近年来陆续建成了一批骨干水源工程，针对边、远、散的这些区域在这个季节加强排 查，采取应急供水来保证。这么多年来我们采取了很多措施，从原来在这个季节举报投诉量最大逐步到现在农村的供水都能够保障"。 记者：付雪微 一审：曹轶 二审：李柏杉 三审：罗阳 ...

Group 1 - The core theme of the discussion is "change," which is recognized across multiple dimensions and perspectives [2][3] - There is a growing awareness among government officials and representatives about the arrival of the AI era, as evidenced by discussions during recent meetings [5][6] - Despite the recognition of change, the actual implementation of policies and strategies remains slow, largely due to entrenched interests and traditional practices [7][8] Group 2 - The current world situation is compared to historical events depicted in "Downton Abbey," highlighting the significant societal changes and conflicts that arise during transformative periods [9][10] - The year 1936 is identified as a pivotal moment in history, marked by the collapse of old orders and the rise of new ideologies, paralleling contemporary global challenges [10][11] - The discussion raises questions about preparedness for the ongoing changes, suggesting a need for reflection on societal readiness for transformation [11]

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang province aims to enhance its high-level opening-up and build a strong open economy over the next five years, focusing on international trade and investment facilitation [10][12][22]. Group 1: Economic Development Strategies - The government work report emphasizes the need to steadily expand institutional opening-up during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [10][22]. - Representatives suggest that Zhejiang should target key areas such as bulk commodity imports and exports, as well as foreign investment facilitation, to create a first-class business environment [10][22]. - There is a call for more proactive alignment with international open standards to elevate the province's overall openness [24]. Group 2: Innovation and Market Integration - Representative Feng Xiuqin highlights the necessity to innovate institutional mechanisms to eliminate bottlenecks in the integration of domestic and foreign trade, promoting more successful products like the "Crying Horse" [6][17]. - The development of integrated services such as freight trains, bonded logistics, cross-border e-commerce, and supply chain finance is deemed essential for market-oriented operational reforms [8][20]. Group 3: Product and Brand Development - The "Crying Horse" toy from Yiwu has gained significant popularity both domestically and internationally, showcasing the effectiveness of rapid customs clearance mechanisms [4][16]. - There is a strong emphasis on enhancing strategies for brand internationalization to reflect improvements in new productive forces [28].