证券研究报告 较红利股息差已转正，扩募与资产扩容并进 证券分析师：彭文玉 A0230517080001 朱敏 A0230524050004 任奕璇 A0230525050002 联系人: 任奕璇 A0230525050002 2025.11.17 摘要 www.swsresearch.com 2 ◼ REITs量价企稳收涨0.4%，消费个券驱动领涨，交通反弹而产业园承压。周期资源品板块走强，长债收益率低位企 稳，11月上半月中证REITs先抑后扬，累计收涨0.4%。板块分化加剧，长假预期与CPI转正带动消费板块领涨 (+1.62%)，个券金茂商业涨幅领衔；交通超跌反弹(+1.42%)，超八成个券上涨；产业园(-1.96%)与物流(-0.40%) 表现偏弱，前者跌幅较10月扩大，后者跌幅收窄。流动性方面，REITs市场量价趋稳，上半月日均换手率0.49%， 较10月同期提升0.2pcts；其中，产业园资金大举流出，消费虽涨但换手率变化不大，反映资金或在内部择券交易。 ◼ REITs较红利股之息差由负转正，较股债已具配置优势。派息率方面，产权类REITs最新派息率为4.40%，与10Y国 债收益率息差为2.58% ...

Core Insights - The conference highlighted the robust development of China's real estate securitization market, particularly in private REITs, CMBS, and similar products, which are expected to provide diversified financing channels by 2025 [1][2] - The core of asset securitization is to transform real estate into standardized products in the capital market, allowing for professional risk management and the separation of assets from management [1][3] - The public REITs market is experiencing a slowdown, with a notable shift in asset types towards industrial parks and consumer infrastructure, raising concerns about potential impairment due to market premium issuance [3] Group 1 - The 10th Real Estate Securitization Cooperation Development Conference was co-hosted by several financial forums, emphasizing the growth of the real estate securitization market in China [1] - The Secretary-General of the China REITs 50 Forum noted that the market is expected to flourish by 2025, particularly in private REITs and CMBS, providing diverse investment channels [1][2] - The Vice Chairman of the China REITs 50 Forum emphasized that REITs are not merely financing tools but create an ecosystem that separates assets from management, optimizing capital structure [1][2] Group 2 - The Chairman of the Asia Pacific Real Estate Association highlighted the need for a comprehensive lifecycle management system for REITs to mature the market [2] - The development of renewable energy requires innovative business models, with REITs seen as an optimal tool for holding renewable energy assets [2] - The Director of the Housing Rental Industry Research Institute outlined six characteristics of rental housing REITs expected by 2025, including enhanced risk resistance and stable cash flow [2] Group 3 - Deloitte's partner noted a slowdown in the public REITs market, with a significant change in asset structure towards industrial parks and consumer infrastructure [3] - The Managing Director of Zhonglian Fund pointed out that holding ABS has rapidly developed since its first issuance at the end of 2023, becoming a crucial tool for connecting asset and capital sides [3] - The Senior Vice President of CITIC Securities provided a comprehensive overview of the three main types of real estate securitization products, highlighting their unique characteristics and roles in the market [3]

REITs 业 研 究 2025 年 11 月 16 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-11 2025-03 2025-07 中证REITs全收益 沪深300 2025 年第 46 周，中证 REITs（收盘）指数为 818.17，同比上涨 6.38%，环比上 涨 0.82%；中证 REITs 全收益指数 1050.45，同比上涨 12.19%，环比上涨 0.86%。 本周 REITs 市场交易规模成交量达 7.1 亿份，同比增长 73.59%；成交额达 28.44 亿元，同比增长 73.52%；区间换手率 2.83%，同比增长-0.21pct。本周保障房、 环保、高速公路、产业园区、仓储物流、能源、消费类 REITs 一周涨跌幅分别为 +1.15%、+0.11%、+1.81%、+0.07%、+0.49%、+0.30%、+1.25%；一月涨跌幅分 别为+1.34%、+2.38%、+1.87%、-3.16%、-2.03%、+0.09%、+4.3%。我们认为， 债券市场利率中枢下行压力下，"资产荒"逻辑有望继续演绎，REITs 作为高分 红、中低风险 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the Chinese government's support for private investment projects to issue Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), aiming to enhance financing for infrastructure projects [1][6]. - The REITs market has shown positive performance recently, with the CICC Lian Dong Science and Technology REIT leading the gains at +6.24% during the week of November 10 to November 14, 2025 [1][14]. - The overall REITs index outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.92 percentage points, indicating strong relative performance in the market [1][14]. Industry Dynamics - On November 10, 2025, the State Council issued measures to further promote private investment, emphasizing the establishment of a "green channel" for technology companies to access financing through listings and mergers [6]. - As of November 14, 2025, the total issuance scale of listed REITs reached 199.3 billion yuan, with 77 REITs issued [6][7]. Market Performance - For the week of November 10 to November 14, 2025, the CSI REITs total return index increased by 0.86%, while the overall REITs index rose by 0.84% [1][14]. - Individual REITs such as CICC Lian Dong Science and Technology REIT, CICC Shandong Expressway REIT, and China Merchants Shekou Rental Housing REIT saw significant gains, with increases of 6.24%, 5.18%, and 4.10% respectively [1][14]. - Conversely, some REITs like Huatai Nanjing Jianye REIT and CICC Chongqing Liangjiang REIT experienced declines of -6.58% and -5.21% [1][14]. Liquidity - The total trading volume of REITs for the week was 569 million yuan, reflecting a 1.2% decrease from the previous week [2][36]. - The largest segment by trading volume was park infrastructure REITs, accounting for 21.9% of the total trading volume [2][36]. Valuation - The report does not provide specific valuation metrics or insights, focusing instead on market performance and liquidity trends [41].

作为资产证券化的重要形式之一，公募 REITs 自 2020 年于国内启动试点以来，市场规模迅速提 升。截至目前，我国二级市场在运行基础设施公募 REITs 共 77 只，总市值规模已超过 2200 亿 元。虽然相比欧美、日本等成熟市场，国内公募 REITs 市场发展还处于相对早期，但作为国内基建 项目投资的重要退出机制，其所带来的拓展项目融资渠道，扩大有效投资等方面积极影响已经显现。 在成熟市场中， REITs 的扩募能够显著提升资产规模，优化收益结构，并进一步增强市场流动性， 是推动公募 REITs 市场发展的重要机制，也是市场发展的必然趋势。随着国家发改委发布了关于进 一步做好基础设施领域不动产投资信托基金（ REITs ）常态化申报推荐工作的通知，中国公募 REITs 市场也已迎来了扩募的重要契机。 安徽交控集团财务部部长，财务公司党委书记、董事长王猛表示，基础设施 REITs 更注重的功能是 盘活存量资产，提供新项目的建设资金，中金安徽交控 REIT 发行上市以来，有效推动了产业链再 融资的有效循环，促成整个集团实现投资建设、运营和资产盘活的闭环管理。对于公募 REITs 的扩 募，他表示，安徽交控 ...

国内REITs将如何抓住当前发展契机，实现更加畅通的投融循环，REITs投资又将迎来哪些机会。 REITs通过证券化方式将不动产转化为标准化且流动性较高的金融产品，是我国投融资体系持续改革背景下，金融市场创新的重要组成部分。首批公募 REITs上市四年多以来，目前国内已上市的公募REITs数量达到77只，为投资者提供了更多低门槛参与不动产投资的选择和机会。2025年9月，国家发改委发 布关于进一步做好基础设施领域不动产投资信托基金（REITs）常态化申报推荐工作的通知，支持REITs扩容扩募与资产创新，进一步为REITs注入了持续动 力和新的政策指引。 厦门安居集团有限公司副总经理、首席运营官陈勇也表达了对于REITs扩募的高度关注和认可。他表示，中金厦门安居REIT目前正在积极寻求扩募，以盘活 存量资产，分散风险并提升经营的稳健性。"在保租房领域，国内存量资产规模庞大，要借助REITs实现风险的有效分散就势必要通过不断的扩募来逐步盘活 资产"，陈勇介绍道，"十五五期间，REITs扩募将是我们的重点工作之一，我们将把厦门岛内外更多成熟、优质的资产拿出来作为扩募的备选项目，不断注 入到REITs平台中。" 上海 ...

Core Viewpoint - The public REITs market in China has transitioned from "quality improvement and expansion" to "normal issuance" by 2025, with a total market value exceeding 200 billion yuan, reaching 221 billion yuan, showing significant growth compared to the end of 2024 [7][8]. Market Trends and Developments - In 2025, the primary market continued to see strong issuance and subscription activity, characterized by a richer variety of asset types and high subscription multiples for new projects, with over 12 projects having subscription multiples exceeding 100 times by the end of Q3 [4][8]. - The secondary market exhibited a "rising then falling" trend, with an overall increase in the first half of 2025, followed by a decline due to rising long-term interest rates and profit-taking demands [4][14]. 2026 Market Outlook - For 2026, the primary market is expected to focus on new asset types and accelerated project expansions supported by policy measures, while the private REITs market is anticipated to grow rapidly [5][34]. - The secondary market is expected to remain influenced by interest rate fluctuations and funding needs, with high dividend-bearing assets maintaining good investment value [5][40]. Asset Type Expansion and Innovation - The 2025 public REITs market saw a continuous expansion of asset types, including the successful launch of several "firsts" in various sectors, notably data centers and municipal infrastructure [12][34]. - The approval and issuance of data center REITs marked a significant breakthrough, indicating the entry of public REITs into the digital infrastructure sector [12][34]. Investor Sentiment and Participation - Investor enthusiasm for new public REITs remained high, with many new projects experiencing substantial first-day gains, reflecting a strong profit-making effect [12][13]. - Institutional investor participation continued to rise, with an average institutional investor share of 97.21% by the first half of 2025, indicating growing recognition and engagement with public REITs [19][21]. Market Structure and Strategy - The construction of a multi-tiered REITs market is seen as essential for further market scale enhancement, with a focus on supply-side measures to improve market capacity and liquidity [31][34]. - The private REITs market is expected to complement public REITs by covering a broader range of asset types and facilitating the revitalization of existing real estate assets [35][39]. Investment Strategy Recommendations - The investment strategy suggests a "barbell" approach, prioritizing projects with resilient or improving fundamentals, while also considering high-potential projects that show value after valuation corrections [5][40]. - Attention should be given to projects with strong fundamentals and short-term improvement expectations, as well as those with attractive valuations in the logistics and industrial park sectors [57].

Core Viewpoint - The secondary market for industrial park REITs is under pressure, with a significant number of products experiencing price declines, influenced by the recent quarterly reports and deteriorating fundamentals [1][4][6]. Market Performance - As of November 3, 2023, out of 76 publicly listed REITs, 58 have seen price declines, with industrial park REITs accounting for 7 of the top 10 products with the largest drops, including 4 that fell over 3% in a single day [1][2]. - Year-to-date, 13 publicly listed REITs have experienced price declines, with 7 being industrial park REITs, indicating a significant impact on this sector [3]. Fundamental Analysis - The recent price adjustments in industrial park REITs are attributed to the impact of the third-quarter reports, revealing operational pressures and declining key metrics such as occupancy rates and average rents in cities like Hefei, Guangzhou, and Chengdu [4][6]. - The EBITDA and distributable amounts for the industrial park sector have seen declines exceeding 10%, with over 80% of the products reporting performance downturns [4]. Sector Differentiation - Within the industrial park sector, there is a notable differentiation, with industrial factory assets performing relatively stable, while research and office assets face significant pressure [5]. Future Outlook - The future of industrial park REITs is influenced by supply-demand dynamics, with an oversupply of office space leading to declining occupancy rates and rents, creating a competitive environment with homogenized offerings [6][7]. - The regional limitations of these REITs, often tied to local industrial development, restrict their ability to diversify and mitigate risks, potentially leading to uniform performance issues across similar assets [7].

Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, the performance of the REITs sector significantly outperformed both stocks and bonds, with the CSI REITs total return increasing by 13.41%, compared to a 3.03% rise in the CSI 300 index and a 0.66% increase in the S&P China Bond Index. The strong performance was driven by policy support, interest rate environment, and capital allocation, with the consumption and rental housing sectors becoming market leaders, while industrial parks and environmental protection sectors showed increased differentiation [5][17][18] - Since the third quarter of 2025, the total return of CSI REITs has declined by 4.84%, while the CSI 300 index rose by 20.6%. The bond-like characteristics of REITs have become more pronounced, showing a strong positive correlation with the Shanghai Composite Index and the ten-year government bond yield [5][17][18] REITs Sector Differentiation - The differentiation within the REITs sector has become more evident in 2025. Consumer REITs, rental housing REITs, and logistics REITs have shown relatively high returns, particularly with gains exceeding 20% in the first half of the year. In contrast, environmental, highway, industrial park, and energy REITs have attracted less market attention, exhibiting lower volatility and limited elasticity [6][42][44] Future Development Trends - The National Development and Reform Commission has expanded the asset categories for REITs, including elderly care facilities, energy storage projects, and clean low-carbon initiatives. This expansion aims to accelerate the regular issuance of mature asset types and explore new asset types for issuance, enhancing the overall market landscape [7][54][57] - As of October 29, 2025, the public REITs market has issued a total of 77 funds, with a cumulative scale of 199.3 billion yuan, reflecting a 22.2% growth compared to the end of 2024 and over five times the scale at the end of 2021. The annual compound growth rate of the public REITs scale from Q3 2021 to Q3 2025 is 58.2%, indicating a sustained trend of expansion [58][60] Investment Recommendations - The investment strategy for 2025 focuses on two main lines: prioritizing the allocation of anti-cyclical consumer and rental housing REITs, and exploring new business opportunities under the diversified backdrop. The report suggests that REITs with stable cash flows and strong expansion capabilities should be favored, while being cautious of the impact of rising long-term interest rates and increased supply on market sentiment [8][66][67][68]

Group 1 - The report focuses on the entire process of public REITs from issuance to listing, breaking down product design logic and operational mechanisms to help investors understand this innovative tool [2][7] - Public REITs are akin to an "IPO" for assets, allowing investors to share in the stable income generated by real estate with a low capital threshold, supported by a mandatory distribution of no less than 90% of earnings [2][7] - As of the first half of 2025, there are over 1,000 listed REITs globally, with a total market capitalization of approximately $2 trillion, predominantly led by the United States [2][11][17] Group 2 - China's public REITs market, which began with the first batch of 9 REITs listed on June 21, 2021, has rapidly evolved through three stages: institutional exploration, pilot implementation, and normalization [2][20][30] - The operational mechanism of public REITs in China typically employs a three-tier structure: public fund → ABS → project company, allowing for indirect ownership of project company equity [2][35][39] - The cumulative issuance scale of public REITs in China has surpassed 200 billion yuan, with the largest asset type being transportation, while the number of park-type REITs is the highest [2][30][31] Group 3 - The report outlines the evolution of public REITs globally, starting from the U.S. in 1960, with significant expansions in Europe, Australia, and Asia over the decades [9][10][11] - By mid-2025, the U.S. accounts for over 64% of the global REIT market capitalization, with 165 REITs issued, followed by Spain, China, and Japan [17][19] - China's public REITs have seen a significant increase in asset types and institutional depth, with the market expanding to include various infrastructure projects [30][31] Group 4 - The report details the application process for public REITs, which includes project selection, due diligence, and compliance with regulatory requirements, often taking over a year to prepare [2][45] - The regulatory framework for public REITs in China has evolved through key policy announcements, establishing a foundation for market operation and asset integration [24][29][30] - The report emphasizes the importance of the mixed structure of equity and debt in public REITs, which helps optimize tax burdens and enhance investor returns [2][39][40]