REITs资产债性凸显，关注多元化趋势下板块分化机会 2026年度REITs投资策略 姓名 齐东（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522010002 邮箱：qidong@kysec.cn 证券研究报告 姓名 胡耀文（分析师） 证书编号：S0790524070001 邮箱：huyaowen@kysec.cn 姓名 杜致远（联系人） 证书编号：S0790124070064 邮箱：duzhiyuan@kysec.cn 2025 年 11 月 2 日 核心观点 1.上半年表现优于股债，下半年债性凸显 2025上半年，中证REITs全收益上涨13.41%；沪深300指数上涨3.03%；标普中国债券指数上涨0.66%。2025上半年REITs板块表现明显大幅优于股债，政策红 利、利率环境及资金配置共同驱动REITs市场实现上半年REITs较高的超额收益，消费与保租房板块凭借政策支持和需求韧性成为市场主线，而产业园、生态 环保等板块分化加剧。2025年三季度至今（2025年10月29日），中证REITs全收益下跌4.84%；沪深300指数上涨20.6%；标普中国债券指数下跌0.46%。 REITs板块债性在三季度至今明显凸显 ...

Group 1 - The social security system is transforming from a simple safety net into a robust buffer against risks, supporting China's economic transition amid challenges like weak exports, high local debt, and aging population [1] - The dynamic adjustment mechanism of social security rates is crucial for fostering innovation, as evidenced by a biotech company reducing labor costs by 5% while increasing research positions by 14% due to policy incentives [3] - The social security fund is exploring innovative paths to address hidden debts through equity investments, with pilot projects in affordable housing REITs yielding a 6.8% annual return while absorbing 111,200 units of inventory [4] Group 2 - The cross-provincial adjustment mechanism of unemployment insurance is becoming vital in the context of industrial restructuring, with the central adjustment fund ratio increasing from 3% to 5% to enhance labor market fluidity [6] - The national coordination of social security is a systematic upgrade of risk hedging mechanisms, with a focus on efficient fund utilization in housing construction through special government bonds [9] - The upgrade of the social security system is emerging as a new logic for China's economic development, acting as both a stabilizer for society and a catalyst for economic transformation [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the REITs sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the coming years [7]. Core Insights - The REITs market is expected to benefit from a low interest rate environment in 2025, with three main investment strategies suggested: focusing on policy-driven projects, selecting resilient assets, and monitoring the expansion of REITs [4]. - The report highlights a trend of performance divergence among various REIT sectors, emphasizing the importance of timing in investment decisions [1][4]. Summary by Sections Warehousing and Logistics - In Q2 2025, the average occupancy rate for warehousing logistics REITs was 94.3%, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.8 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 4.4 percentage points [10]. - The average rental rate was 52.4 CNY/sqm/month, reflecting a competitive market where tenants are cautious about renewing leases [10][11]. Consumer Infrastructure - The average occupancy rate for consumer infrastructure REITs in Q2 2025 was 97.1%, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.9 percentage points, although it saw a year-on-year decline of 1.3 percentage points [14]. - The average rental rate was 217.9 CNY/sqm/month, showing a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3.9% but a year-on-year increase of 5.0% [14][15]. Affordable Housing - The average occupancy rate for affordable housing REITs was 96.0% in Q2 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.0 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 0.9 percentage points [20]. - The average rental rate was 54.0 CNY/sqm/month, indicating stability in rental income despite slight fluctuations [20]. Industrial Parks - The report notes a decline in both occupancy rates and rental income for industrial parks, driven by increased competition and economic pressures [2]. Highways - In Q2 2025, highway REITs experienced a seasonal decline in traffic volume, but year-on-year comparisons showed recovery, particularly in freight traffic which increased by 1.3% [3]. Energy and Environmental Protection - The performance of energy and environmental protection REITs was mixed, with wind power projects performing well while solar projects faced challenges due to decreased sunlight and increased competition [3].

Issuance Market - In the current period, 2 REITs were issued with a total scale of 5.58 billion yuan, and the average allocation ratio remains low at 0.43% [1][6] - A total of 12 REITs have been issued this year, with the number increasing by 9% compared to the same period last year, while the total issuance scale decreased by 23% to 20.9 billion yuan [1][6] - The issuance of property REITs shows a significant advantage in both quantity and scale compared to operating rights REITs, accounting for over 80% of the total [1][6] Secondary Market - The current number of REIT products in the market is 71, with a total scale exceeding 211.9 billion yuan, maintaining a lead in property REITs over operating rights REITs [2][13] - The REITs market experienced a slight decline of -0.62%, lagging behind the stock market, while the overall increase for the year is 16.33%, significantly outperforming stock indices [2][14] - Property REITs have shown a year-to-date increase of 18.82%, while operating rights REITs increased by 13.84%, with notable performance differences among various underlying asset types [2][14] Dividend Situation - The total dividends for the REITs market in 2025 reached 4.572 billion yuan, with a dividend yield of 2.80%, which is lower than the dividend yield of the CSI Dividend Index [3][28] - Property REITs have a dividend yield of 2.30%, significantly lower than the 3.42% yield of operating rights REITs [3][28] - The forced dividend nature of REITs results in high dividend ratios across different types, with operating rights REITs showing higher dividend amounts and yields compared to property REITs [3][29] Investment Value Analysis - The latest valuation for all property REITs is 27.39, which has decreased compared to the previous period, with affordable housing REITs showing relatively high valuations [4][35] - The valuation (P/EBITDA) for industrial park REITs is the lowest among all asset types, while the internal rate of return for water conservancy facility REITs is the highest among operating rights REITs [4][35] - The dividend yield for property REITs calculated from actual dividends over the past year is 3.61%, indicating a strong dividend ratio compared to stock indices [4][35]

Group 1 - The total market value of public REITs has surpassed 200 billion yuan, reaching 202.07 billion yuan as of June 6, with the Shanghai Stock Exchange accounting for 135.14 billion yuan, or 67% of the total [1] - The first public REITs in sectors such as data centers, tourist attractions, elderly care facilities, and ice and snow economy are expected to accelerate in the future [1] - Housing REITs, supported by national policies, have seen a favorable environment for issuance, with local policies also encouraging REITs in technology innovation projects [1] Group 2 - Housing REITs typically have underlying assets with rigid demand, especially in first-tier cities and rapidly growing population areas [1] - The annualized cash distribution rate of housing REITs is generally high, and their valuation levels are relatively low, making them attractive in a market environment characterized by asset scarcity [2] - Housing REITs are favored by long-term funds such as social security and pension funds due to their high dividend yield and moderate risk profile in the context of declining bond market interest rates [2]

Core Viewpoint - The public REITs market is experiencing a downward trend with decreased market activity, but affordable housing REITs show strong resilience and growth potential [1][2][3] Market Performance - The CSI REITs Index fell by 1.36% to 856.7 points, while the CSI REITs Total Return Index decreased by 1.18% to 1065.4 points, indicating a lack of short-term confidence in REIT products [1] - Affordable housing REITs increased by 0.40%, highlighting their stability amidst market volatility, with notable performers including Huaxia Beijing Affordable Housing REIT (+3.67%), Huaxia Dayuecheng Commercial REIT (+3.19%), and Yinhua Shaoxing Raw Water REIT (+2.61%) [1] Industry Segmentation - There is a clear structural differentiation in the REITs market, with industrial park, warehousing logistics, and ecological environmental REITs declining by 2.14%, 2.96%, and 1.11% respectively, while affordable housing, consumer, and energy REITs saw increases of 0.27%, 0.09%, and 0.54% [2] - The market's preference for stable and anti-cyclical assets is evident, particularly in light of tariff impacts on coastal warehousing logistics REITs, which have performed poorly [2] Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - Recent developments include the launch of the first public rental housing REIT in Jiangsu, indicating growing market recognition of rental housing assets, and a high dividend payout from E Fund Guangzhou Development Zone REIT [3] - The market is expected to maintain narrow fluctuations in the short term, with a continued strong trend in stable sectors such as affordable housing, consumption, and water conservancy, while avoiding cyclical industries directly affected by tariffs [3]