摘要 人民币升值投资机会解读 20251229 人民币升值利好上游原材料行业（公用事业、有色金属、钢铁、能源化 工）和消费品行业（航空公司、免税业务），降低进口商品成本，提升 相关企业盈利能力。 人民币升值减轻了航空公司和房地产企业以美元计价的债务偿还压力， 尤其是航空公司通过汇兑收益直接增厚利润，房地产企业境外美元债偿 债压力降低。 人民币升值将提升人民币核心资产的估值，金融领域的银行和保险业， 以及港股市场中的恒生科技指数和恒生中国企业指数，可能因外资流入 而表现突出。 燃气板块受益于人民币升值，因燃气价格与美元计价的国际油价挂钩， 降低采购成本；而高股息火电板块受汇率影响较小，表现相对弱势。 航空业直接受益于飞机采购和租赁的汇兑收益，以及美联储降息带来的 融资成本降低；间接受益于美元计价运营成本的降低和出境游需求的刺 激。 人民币升值扩大了国内降息空间，有助于房地产市场企稳，并吸引外资 投资以人民币计价的大宗不动产，如商业办公和物流地产项目。 港股市场因人民币升值对外资吸引力增加而受益，尤其是科技板块，但 股价根本驱动因素仍是每股收益（EPS），流动性影响短期股价。 Q&A 人民币升值对哪些行业有显著影 ...

REITs 月月谈：政策红利仍在延续，关注年末配置窗口 20251210 摘要 证监会加速商业不动产 REITs 发行，提升规模供给，吸引更多市场化主 体参与，长期配置价值凸显，经济回升时有望带来超额收益。 商办类资产中，零售型业态最稳定，写字楼和酒店顺周期性强。类一线 城市商办物业优于产业园，但租金和出租率承压，酒店波动大，适合高 风险偏好投资者。 公募 REITs 市场 10 月、11 月连续下跌，但跌幅收窄。高速公路、消费 和保租房板块表现相对较好，市政环保、数据中心回调，能源仓储产业 园跌幅较大。 未来关注多空博弈及跨年配置节奏，政策端对资产和资金呵护预计持续， 建议关注基本面稳健的数据中心、消费、保租房及部分高速公路项目， 逢低吸筹。 当前交易逻辑仍为类固收，建议逐步吸筹基本面过关且估值合理的券种， 关注底层资产与运营管理人的组合，警惕非市场化条款带来的波动风险。 Q&A 商办类资产在当前市场中的表现如何？ 商办类资产，包括综合体验、写字楼和酒店等业态，其稳定性和韧性有所不同。 零售型业态被认为是最稳定的，而写字楼和酒店则具有更强的顺周期性。类一 新项目集中于商办领域，零售型业态相对稳定，写字楼和酒 ...

Core Insights - The conference highlighted the robust development of China's real estate securitization market, particularly in private REITs, CMBS, and similar products, which are expected to provide diversified financing channels by 2025 [1][2] - The core of asset securitization is to transform real estate into standardized products in the capital market, allowing for professional risk management and the separation of assets from management [1][3] - The public REITs market is experiencing a slowdown, with a notable shift in asset types towards industrial parks and consumer infrastructure, raising concerns about potential impairment due to market premium issuance [3] Group 1 - The 10th Real Estate Securitization Cooperation Development Conference was co-hosted by several financial forums, emphasizing the growth of the real estate securitization market in China [1] - The Secretary-General of the China REITs 50 Forum noted that the market is expected to flourish by 2025, particularly in private REITs and CMBS, providing diverse investment channels [1][2] - The Vice Chairman of the China REITs 50 Forum emphasized that REITs are not merely financing tools but create an ecosystem that separates assets from management, optimizing capital structure [1][2] Group 2 - The Chairman of the Asia Pacific Real Estate Association highlighted the need for a comprehensive lifecycle management system for REITs to mature the market [2] - The development of renewable energy requires innovative business models, with REITs seen as an optimal tool for holding renewable energy assets [2] - The Director of the Housing Rental Industry Research Institute outlined six characteristics of rental housing REITs expected by 2025, including enhanced risk resistance and stable cash flow [2] Group 3 - Deloitte's partner noted a slowdown in the public REITs market, with a significant change in asset structure towards industrial parks and consumer infrastructure [3] - The Managing Director of Zhonglian Fund pointed out that holding ABS has rapidly developed since its first issuance at the end of 2023, becoming a crucial tool for connecting asset and capital sides [3] - The Senior Vice President of CITIC Securities provided a comprehensive overview of the three main types of real estate securitization products, highlighting their unique characteristics and roles in the market [3]

Core Viewpoint - The insurance sector has shown impressive investment performance in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by a favorable stock market and increased bond yield volatility, leading to higher investment returns for insurance companies [1][2]. Investment Performance - Five listed insurance companies reported significant investment returns, with New China Life achieving an annualized return of 8.6%, while China Pacific Insurance and China Life reported non-annualized returns of 5.2% and 6.42%, respectively [1][2]. - China Life's total investment income reached RMB 368.55 billion, marking a 41.0% year-on-year increase [3]. - China Reinsurance's total investment income was RMB 862.50 billion, reflecting a 35.3% year-on-year growth [3]. Investment Strategies - Insurance companies are actively responding to the demand for long-term capital entry into the market, leveraging their patient capital advantage to steadily increase equity holdings [1][2]. - China Reinsurance has increased its long-duration bond allocation and focused on long-term growth potential in equity investments [3]. - China Pacific Insurance has maintained a disciplined asset allocation strategy, actively managing equity investments with a focus on undervalued and high-dividend stocks [3]. Alternative Investments - Alternative investments are becoming a key focus for insurance companies as part of their diversification strategies and business transformation efforts [4]. - China Reinsurance is actively promoting business transformation by investing in asset-backed plans and public/private REITs [5]. - China Ping An is also increasing its allocation to quality alternative assets to diversify and enhance its revenue sources [6]. Product Performance - A total of 1,483 insurance asset management products achieved positive returns this year, with a 93.8% success rate, and four products exceeded 100% returns [8].

Core Insights - The REITs market is seen as a significant opportunity for the commercial real estate sector in China, which is currently undergoing a transformation [1][8] - Despite having a leading number of REITs, the scale of China's public REITs market is still in its infancy compared to global standards [2][3] Group 1: Market Overview - As of November 7, 2025, China has issued 77 public REITs with a total issuance scale of 198.1 billion yuan, indicating rapid growth in quantity [2] - The number of issued REITs in China surpasses the combined total of Singapore and Hong Kong, showcasing strong market momentum [3] Group 2: Challenges Faced - The public REITs market in China faces challenges such as insufficient supply of quality assets and low efficiency in project execution [4] - Current tax policies increase the cost of asset issuance, discouraging original equity holders from launching REITs [4][5] - The lengthy and complex approval process for REITs contributes to low project execution efficiency, leading to delays [4][6] Group 3: Asset Management and Utilization - The use of proceeds from REITs is restricted by regulations, which can complicate investment decisions for state-owned enterprises [6] - Successful examples of private REITs, such as the one issued by Yuexiu Group, demonstrate the potential for asset revitalization without the lengthy public listing process [7] Group 4: Future Outlook - The REITs market is anticipated to play a crucial role in the future of the real estate market, although its full potential is not yet clear [8] - The development of REITs requires careful attention to market volatility, asset performance, and management capabilities to ensure long-term success [9]

Core Viewpoint - The public REITs market in China has transitioned from "quality improvement and expansion" to "normal issuance" by 2025, with a total market value exceeding 200 billion yuan, reaching 221 billion yuan, showing significant growth compared to the end of 2024 [7][8]. Market Trends and Developments - In 2025, the primary market continued to see strong issuance and subscription activity, characterized by a richer variety of asset types and high subscription multiples for new projects, with over 12 projects having subscription multiples exceeding 100 times by the end of Q3 [4][8]. - The secondary market exhibited a "rising then falling" trend, with an overall increase in the first half of 2025, followed by a decline due to rising long-term interest rates and profit-taking demands [4][14]. 2026 Market Outlook - For 2026, the primary market is expected to focus on new asset types and accelerated project expansions supported by policy measures, while the private REITs market is anticipated to grow rapidly [5][34]. - The secondary market is expected to remain influenced by interest rate fluctuations and funding needs, with high dividend-bearing assets maintaining good investment value [5][40]. Asset Type Expansion and Innovation - The 2025 public REITs market saw a continuous expansion of asset types, including the successful launch of several "firsts" in various sectors, notably data centers and municipal infrastructure [12][34]. - The approval and issuance of data center REITs marked a significant breakthrough, indicating the entry of public REITs into the digital infrastructure sector [12][34]. Investor Sentiment and Participation - Investor enthusiasm for new public REITs remained high, with many new projects experiencing substantial first-day gains, reflecting a strong profit-making effect [12][13]. - Institutional investor participation continued to rise, with an average institutional investor share of 97.21% by the first half of 2025, indicating growing recognition and engagement with public REITs [19][21]. Market Structure and Strategy - The construction of a multi-tiered REITs market is seen as essential for further market scale enhancement, with a focus on supply-side measures to improve market capacity and liquidity [31][34]. - The private REITs market is expected to complement public REITs by covering a broader range of asset types and facilitating the revitalization of existing real estate assets [35][39]. Investment Strategy Recommendations - The investment strategy suggests a "barbell" approach, prioritizing projects with resilient or improving fundamentals, while also considering high-potential projects that show value after valuation corrections [5][40]. - Attention should be given to projects with strong fundamentals and short-term improvement expectations, as well as those with attractive valuations in the logistics and industrial park sectors [57].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley upgraded the rating of New World Development to "Overweight," citing the company's unexpected rental growth through increased market share and positive progress in selling mature mall businesses via private REITs [1] Group 1 - The company achieved better-than-expected rental growth by enhancing its market share [1] - Positive developments in selling mature mall businesses through private REITs will improve cash flow and enhance profitability quality [1] - Morgan Stanley raised the target price for the company by 25% to 19.7 yuan [1] Group 2 - Earnings per share forecasts for 2026 to 2027 were increased by 3-5% [1]

Core Insights - The Chinese public REITs market has maintained a robust supply and demand dynamic since 2025, with increasing market attention and a total of 127 valid questionnaires collected during the annual market survey conducted from September 25 to September 30 [2] Group 1: Market Participants and Investment Strategies - Securities firms and insurance institutions are the main participants in the market, with over 30% of insurance and over 40% of securities firms having cumulative investments exceeding 1 billion yuan [4][11] - Institutions are diversifying their investment strategies, with a high interest in new issuance strategies, while over 30% of institutions are exploring private REITs investment opportunities [4][16] - The majority of institutions still rely on offline/public subscription and secondary market participation as their main investment methods, with a notable increase in the use of entrusted accounts for REITs investments [4][16] Group 2: Market Size and Liquidity Concerns - Market size and liquidity remain significant concerns, with many investors indicating that the market is still too small and lacks sufficient liquidity, similar to last year's survey results [5][29] - Nearly 70% of sample institutions plan to increase their REITs allocation in 2026, focusing on sectors such as consumption, data centers, and affordable rental housing [5][33] - Institutions have a cautious outlook on returns, with about 60% expecting REITs market returns to be in the high single-digit range (5-10%) for 2026 [5][33] Group 3: Private REITs and Future Outlook - Over 30% of institutions are paying attention to private REITs, which have seen a faster issuance pace this year, with 14 listed holding-type real estate ABS totaling 21.4 billion yuan as of September 30, 2025 [23] - Institutions perceive private REITs as having advantages such as stronger valuation stability, flexibility, and higher distribution rates compared to public REITs, although concerns about liquidity and transparency remain [23][29] - The market is expected to see a gradual increase in private REITs issuance, which could become an important part of a multi-tiered REITs market [23] Group 4: Institutional Confidence and Sector Focus - Institutions exhibit a neutral to optimistic attitude towards the recovery of underlying asset fundamentals in 2026, with a focus on stable sectors such as consumption infrastructure, data centers, and affordable rental housing [41] - The top three sectors of interest for insurance and securities firms differ slightly, with insurance firms favoring consumption, affordable housing, and water and electricity, while securities firms prefer consumption, data centers, and affordable housing [41][44]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rapid development and increasing popularity of private REITs in China's multi-tiered REITs market, highlighting their unique product structure and risk-return characteristics, as well as the opportunities and challenges they present to various types of investors [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Current Development of China's Multi-tiered REITs Market - Since the introduction of REITs in the 1960s in the U.S., the global market has expanded to over 40 countries, with the U.S. holding more than half of the global market capitalization. China's REITs market has also grown rapidly, forming a multi-tiered structure that includes public REITs, private REITs, and Pre-REITs, although private REITs and Pre-REITs are still developing more slowly due to challenges like limited exit channels and asset liquidity [2][3]. Growth of Public REITs - China's public REITs market, officially launched in April 2020, has quickly become the largest in Asia and the second largest globally. As of July 2025, there are 68 listed public REITs with a total issuance scale of 177 billion yuan and a market capitalization of 204.5 billion yuan. The underlying assets have diversified significantly beyond initial categories [4]. Market Potential of Pre-REITs - Pre-REITs serve as a bridge for acquiring and nurturing infrastructure or real estate projects before they transition to public REITs. They are expected to play a crucial role in creating a comprehensive multi-tiered REITs market, especially as policies and market understanding improve [5]. Rapid Growth of Private REITs - Private REITs in China are entering a rapid growth phase, with their concept emerging in September 2023. They are designed to be flexible and cater to high-net-worth investors, with a market value approximately half that of public REITs. The first private REIT was successfully issued in December 2023, marking its entry into the capital market [6][7]. Characteristics of Private REITs - Private REITs combine features of both public and private structures, allowing for a broader range of underlying assets and a shorter approval process. They are designed to be standardized products that rely on asset credit, offering higher yields compared to public REITs due to their flexible terms and conditions [9][12][14]. Investor Risk Preferences and Challenges - Various institutional investors, including insurance companies and banks, are increasingly recognizing private REITs. However, they face challenges such as long investment horizons, fluctuating returns, and difficulties in exit strategies and valuation [20][24]. Recommendations for Development - To enhance the private REITs market, recommendations include improving market liquidity through a market maker system, optimizing the expansion mechanism, incentivizing operational management, establishing robust exit mechanisms, and enhancing information disclosure to build investor confidence [28][29][30][31][32].

Market Performance - The public REITs secondary market continued to decline last week, with the CSI REITs Index falling by 0.20% to close at 838.3 points, while the CSI REITs Total Return Index increased by 0.12% to 1071.3 points [1][4] - Among the 74 listed public REITs, 38 saw an increase, 35 experienced a decline, and one remained unchanged. The top three performing products were Huaxia Fund Huayuan REIT (+2.20%), China Merchants Highway REIT (+1.89%), and E Fund Shen Highway REIT (+1.57%) [1][4][6] Sector Performance - The performance of various sectors showed divergence, with industrial park REITs up by 0.04%, logistics REITs up by 0.23%, while ecological and environmental protection REITs fell by 2.00%, and highway REITs decreased by 0.47% [4] - The weekly performance ranking from highest to lowest was: data centers, logistics, industrial parks, consumer, energy, affordable rental housing, highways, and ecological protection [4] Transaction Volume - The total transaction volume for REITs last week was 468 million yuan, a decrease of 19.0% compared to the previous week. The transaction volumes for property and operational REITs were 295 million yuan and 173 million yuan, respectively, reflecting declines of 20.9% and 15.7% [9] - The transaction volumes for various REIT types included: 68 million yuan for park infrastructure, 59 million yuan for energy infrastructure, 44 million yuan for logistics, and 91 million yuan for traffic infrastructure, with traffic infrastructure accounting for 19.7% of total transactions [9] Industry and Policy Developments - Three private REITs were accepted for review last week, including projects related to Tianjin Rail Transit, China Railway Construction, and Qingdao Water Group [2][10] - On September 19, the Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments issued a notice prioritizing support for community commercial complexes and other consumer infrastructure projects to issue REITs [2][10]