【文/观察者网 阮佳琪】 自今年1月特朗普重返白宫以来，美国科技领袖的政治影响力显然不断扩大。不少分析人士认为，特朗 普与特斯拉、SpaceX的首席执行官马斯克的公开分歧，凸显了科技精英与特朗普领导的民粹右翼势 力"MAGA"阵营形成的同盟的脆弱性，但科技领袖仍可能在未来几年深刻影响美国的对华战略。 据港媒《南华早报》12日报道，回顾过去大半年，除了马斯克，一群颇具影响力的科技人物与白宫及联 邦机构建立了紧密联系，影响着加密货币、人工智能与国防领域的政策。他们将盟友安插在关键岗位， 比如最近被任命于五角大楼担任要职的前优步高管埃米尔·迈克尔（Emil Michael），以及担任白宫加密 货币事务负责人和人工智能"沙皇"的知名风投人大卫·萨克斯（David Sacks）。 港媒援引分析人士的话称，长远来看，这一"脆弱同盟"可能会削弱美国在对华竞争中的优势，或将导致 美国错失海外人才，脱离全球市场。 普林斯顿大学博士后研究员凯尔（Kyle Chan）表示，"特马组合"的分崩离析，反映出MAGA势力与科 技右翼存在着根深蒂固的深层矛盾。尽管双方在放松监管、废除"多元化、公平与包容"（DEI）计划等 议题上目标一致， ...

为什么这事突然成为紧急议题？这里面不得不说最近真实发生的"多线威胁"：比如2024年发生的波罗的海天然气管道疑似破 坏、欧洲多国通讯链路遭受激烈网络攻击，更不用说德国国防部长最近明确警告"未来4年可能有欧盟成员国遭受实质性军事袭 击"。这些信息，拼凑出的画风非常凛冽——不只是战场战火，混合威胁（Physical+Cyber）才是欧盟官员心头最大的噩梦。 说实话，以前大部分人觉得稀土矿啥的离民众生活很远。其实不然！你手中的智能手机、电动汽车，还是医院那些高端医疗设 备，基本都离不开稀土里的钕、镝这些金属。而欧洲生产这类高端工业品，绝大部分原料还全靠进口（80%以上来自中国）， 只要亚洲某地一有风吹草动，欧洲就得"提心吊胆"。 "刚刚，欧盟内部传出一则消息，让整个矿业和能源领域集体'炸锅'——欧盟正酝酿一项史无前例的'紧急战略储备'计划，连稀 土矿物、永磁体、电缆维保模块这些听起来异常专业的备品，都要统统囤上一批！有人说，这背后藏着欧盟对战争和地缘不确 定性的最大恐惧。到底发生了什么，让27国集团如此如临大敌？" 自2022年俄乌冲突爆发后，欧洲的能源"痛点"彻底暴露：供暖季缺气、军工原料告急、关键设备一旦断供全 ...

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the article is that NATO's target of a 3.5% increase in core defense spending could lead to a potential increase in European government debt by $2 trillion by 2035 if implemented without offsetting measures [1] Group 1: Defense Spending Impact - The increase in defense spending is expected to be gradual, influenced by national security considerations, the scale of the defense industry, fiscal issues, electoral support, and industrial absorption capacity [1] - The anticipated growth in military expenditure will vary across countries based on their specific circumstances and priorities [1] Group 2: Sovereign Debt Implications - The short-term impact on the credit quality of European sovereign debt is expected to be limited, as the growth in defense spending is likely to be moderate and slow [1]

Core Insights - The report by Govini highlights the ongoing reliance of the U.S. defense industry on Chinese suppliers despite efforts to decouple from China [1] - In 2024, 9.3% of the primary suppliers for nine key defense projects in the U.S. are Chinese companies [1] - The report emphasizes the vulnerability of U.S. weapon systems due to dependence on critical minerals, with 78% of weapon systems potentially affected by Chinese export controls [1] Summary by Categories Supplier Dependency - The U.S. defense industry still relies on Chinese suppliers, with 9.3% of primary suppliers in key defense projects being Chinese firms [1] Critical Minerals - Many weapon systems depend on critical minerals, and China's export controls highlight the industry's vulnerability [1] - A previous report indicated that 78% of U.S. weapon systems could be impacted by the global supply dominance of China over five critical minerals: antimony, gallium, germanium, tungsten, and tellurium [1]

Group 1 - The new NATO defense spending plan may nearly double the market size for U.S. defense contractors over the next decade, according to BTIG analyst Andre Madrid [1] - NATO members, except for Spain, agreed to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, up from the previous 2% target, with 3.5% allocated for core defense areas and 1.5% for infrastructure and industrial capacity [1][2] - Madrid's team estimates that NATO's defense budget could reach $3 trillion annually by 2035, with total military equipment spending potentially hitting $8.8 trillion over the next decade [1] Group 2 - U.S. defense companies currently account for about two-thirds of European military equipment imports, a ratio expected to remain stable [1] - Companies such as General Dynamics (GD.US) and Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS.US) are highlighted as top picks to benefit from increased defense spending [1] - The existing 2% defense spending commitment was reinforced after the 2014 Ukraine conflict and has gained momentum following the escalation in 2022, with 23 NATO members expected to meet this target by 2025 [2]

当前全球金融市场正经历一个由多重不确定性交织而成的复杂时期。 从华盛顿国会山关于税收法案的激烈博弈，到中东地区关于军事打击效果的争论，再到美联储在数据依 赖与前瞻性之间的挣扎，以及纽约市地方选举所折射出的政治风向变化，所有这些因素共同作用，塑造 着市场情绪，并可能预示着更深层次的结构性转变。 尽管财政部官员设定了雄心勃勃的7月4日签署目标，并强调法案通过的紧迫性，但国会山传来的消息显 示，分歧依然巨大，特别是参议院版本与众议院版本之间的差异，以及保守派对削减开支条款被移除的 不满，都可能导致立法进程延误，甚至法案最终无法通过。 对于市场而言，这项法案的命运至关重要。 其包含的约4.2万亿美元减税规模，将对美国财政前景产生深远影响。更重要的是，法案中关于医疗保 健的条款，可能导致大量安全网医院关闭，这不仅是严重的社会问题，也将对相关行业的盈利能力和地 方经济造成实质性冲击。市场正密切关注这些细节，以评估其对特定行业和公司的影响。 与此同时，美联储的货币政策路径依然充满不确定性。 首先，美国国内政策的制定过程正成为市场关注的焦点。 一项被视为特朗普政府核心议程的大规模税收改革法案，正遭遇共和党内部的显著分歧。 关 ...

Core Viewpoint - NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg emphasized the need for NATO to rapidly expand defense industrial capacity on both sides of the Atlantic [1] Group 1 - The call for increased defense industrial capacity is driven by the current geopolitical climate and the need for enhanced military readiness [1] - Expanding production capabilities is seen as essential to meet the demands of member countries and ensure collective security [1] - The focus on transatlantic cooperation highlights the importance of collaboration between North American and European defense industries [1]

Core Insights - Turkey and the United States have significant potential for cooperation in various fields, particularly in energy and investment [1] - Advancing collaboration, especially in the defense industry, will contribute to achieving the bilateral trade target of 100 billion dollars [1] Energy and Investment - The emphasis on energy and investment highlights the strategic importance of these sectors in Turkey-US relations [1] - Potential growth in these areas could lead to increased economic benefits for both countries [1] Defense Industry - Strengthening cooperation in the defense industry is identified as a key area for enhancing bilateral trade [1] - This collaboration may lead to advancements in technology and increased defense capabilities for both nations [1]

Group 1 - The Israeli stock market showed resilience amid geopolitical tensions, with the TA-125 index opening up 1% and reaching a historical high, reflecting investor confidence in the country's economic fundamentals [1] - The strong performance of the TA-35 index, which opened with a gain of 0.9%, further confirms the positive sentiment among investors regarding Israel's ability to manage geopolitical risks [1] - In contrast, the Egyptian stock index experienced a significant decline of 1.5%, indicating investor concerns about regional stability and the potential chain reactions from U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities [1] Group 2 - Egypt's economy is highly dependent on energy supplies, particularly natural gas imports from Israel, making it sensitive to disruptions in energy supply chains [2] - The decision by Israel to close the Leviathan gas field directly impacts Egypt's energy supply expectations, leading to cautious investor sentiment regarding Egypt's economic outlook [2]

挪威首相：将支持北约每年将国防开支占GDP 5%的目标。3.5%的资金将用于北约的传统开支，如装备 投资和对乌克兰的支持，1.5%的资金将用于国防相关开支，以增强社会的能力，例如工业基础。 ...