【环球网报道】据《日本经济新闻》报道，日本政府8月28日发布消息称，负责美日关税协议谈判的日本经济再生担当大臣赤泽亮正取消访美。报道称，赤 泽亮正原计划28日启程前往美国，他取消访美的原因是美日政府的事前磋商未能谈妥。 针对15%关税税率，按照日本政府的说法，针对现有税率低于15%的商品，在8月税率提高后总税率应为15%。而现行税率已高于15%的项目将不作变动。而 美国政府日前发布的公告显示，日本已被征税商品需在现有税率之上再加15%。例如日本纺织品此前关税为7.5%，新关税将提升至22.5%，日本牛肉此前关 税为26.4%，新关税也将提升至41.4%。 关于日美贸易协议中日本承诺向美国投资5500亿美元，特朗普表示，这些投资"就是我们的资金"，美国可以随意支配，投资收益的90%将归美国。赤泽亮正 则就此表示，如果投资对日本企业和日本经济没有好处，日方无法予以合作。 日本《读卖新闻》称，美日双方未就贸易协议签署官方的联合文件，美日分别发表的协议内容存在分歧。在这种背景下，美方要求与日本政府就日本对美国 投资发表联合文件，这也是赤泽亮正此行的主要目的之一。赤泽亮正原计划还将敦促美国尽快改变15%关税税率的执行方 ...

Core Viewpoint - Canada will eliminate the 25% retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods that comply with the USMCA starting September 1, as a response to the U.S. reducing tariffs on Canadian products [3][7]. Group 1: Tariff Changes - The Canadian government has imposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods worth CAD 60 billion since the trade war began, including additional tariffs on U.S. automobiles [3][7]. - Canadian Prime Minister Carney indicated that the focus will be on assisting industries facing high tariffs, such as steel, aluminum, automotive, and lumber [3][7]. - The U.S. has increased tariffs on certain Canadian goods to 35%, but products covered by the USMCA are exempt from this increase [3][7]. Group 2: Impact on Small Businesses - A survey by the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) revealed that 38% of small businesses may not survive another year if current tariff rules persist, with 58% affected by retaliatory tariffs [7][8]. - Many small businesses are bearing the full cost of U.S. import tariffs, with 67% indicating they have paid these tariffs themselves [7][8]. - The cost of shifting to domestic manufacturing for some companies, like Starfield Optics, can be as high as CAD 12,000, while their profits were CAD 150,000 last year [7]. Group 3: Trade Statistics - As of January, approximately 34% of Canadian goods exported to the U.S. complied with the USMCA, which increased to nearly 57% by June [7]. - Over 85% of goods in Canada-U.S. trade currently enjoy tariff exemptions [7]. Group 4: Ongoing Tariffs and Future Concerns - Tariffs on U.S. automobiles, steel, and aluminum will remain in effect, with Canada being significantly impacted as a major supplier of these materials to the U.S. [10][11]. - In 2024, Canada is projected to export CAD 12.1 billion worth of steel, with 91% going to the U.S., and import CAD 15.5 billion worth of steel, with nearly 45% from the U.S. [11]. - The Canadian legal expert warned that maintaining retaliatory tariffs could jeopardize Canada's exemptions under the USMCA, especially as other countries have reached agreements with the U.S. [11].

关税没完没了。 近日，特朗普发文称，正在对进入美国的家具进行重大的关税调查。在接下来的50天内，调查将完成，从其他国家进入美国的家具将被征收关税，税率待 定。 关税冲击波持续 特朗普政府继药品、半导体、钢铁铝等特定行业的关税之后，再次插手家具行业，不少分析人士认为，关税的大面积推进，可能对通胀与全球供应链产生深 远的影响。 另外，近日，加拿大总理卡尼宣布，将于9月1日取消多项针对美国商品的报复性关税，但对美国汽车、钢铁和铝的关税将暂时维持。卡尼表示，这一举措是 对美国降低加拿大商品关税的回应，并强调加美两国现已重新实现了绝大多数商品的自由贸易。 有媒体指出，加拿大宣布取消对美国商品征收的多项报复性关税，是为重启陷入僵局的贸易谈判释放善意。美墨加协定是北美三国于2018年签署的三边贸易 协定，2020年7月正式生效，并计划于2026年进行续签审议。 另外，备受关注的美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔年会上发表讲话，他强调，尽管通胀仍受关注，但就业市场风险上升可能使美联储在9月降息。他强调， 在政策维持紧缩的背景下，经济前景及风险变化或需调整政策立场。 有分析指出，鲍威尔释放了明确的"鸽派"信号，为9月份美联储降息打开 ...

当地时间8月21日，美国与欧盟发表联合声明称，双方已就贸易协定框架达成一致，美国在声明中重申 了对欧盟大部分商品征收15%的关税上限，涵盖汽车、药品、半导体芯片和木材等。美欧向着正式确立 贸易协定又迈出一步，此前一段时间美国对欧盟实施的高关税对欧洲出口商们已经造成了不小的打击。 欧盟统计局近期发布数据显示，今年6月欧元区出口整体下滑，对美出口更是同比骤降超10%。专家提 醒，高关税叠加汇率波动和全球需求疲软，可能在接下来几个季度持续拖累欧洲出口，令欧洲经济蒙上 阴影。 欧盟统计局数据显示，今年6月欧元区出口环比下降2.4%，而进口环比增长超过3%。这一增一减，使得 经季节性调整后的贸易顺差从5月的156亿欧元大幅下降至28亿欧元。其中，对美国市场的出口同比下降 超过10%，直接反映出美国加征关税举措的剧烈冲击。 事实上，这一下滑在经济学家看来并不意外。今年上半年，不少企业在关税正式生效前抢出口，把货物 提前运往美国。新税率一经执行，出口量随即下跌。荷兰国际集团宏观研究主管布热斯基指出，关税叠 加欧元走强和全球贸易不确定性，正让欧洲出口商面临多重压力。 此外，也有不少企业通过加快本地化来应对高关税。除此之外，车 ...

《华盛顿邮报》8月13日的文章指出，美国的关税政策正在给非洲国家带来严重后果，特别是莱索托这 个长期与美国维持良好贸易关系的国家。莱索托是一个内陆贫困国家，多年来依靠与美国的纺织贸易获 得经济支持。美国市场的需求增长，推动了该国纺织制造业的扩张，成千上万的家庭因此获得了稳定的 收入，也有效改善了当地的贫困状况。与此同时，美国消费者也能够以低廉的价格购买到来自莱索托的 牛仔裤，形成了互利共赢的局面。然而，随着美国关税政策的改变，莱索托的未来变得充满不确定性， 原本良好的经济局面正受到严峻挑战。 莱索托宣布进入"灾难状态"，因为美国的关税政策直接导致了 该国出口的服装和纺织品价格上涨。由于制造商将生产成本的增加转嫁到消费者身上，部分美国本土品 牌的平价牛仔裤价格上升。为规避更高的成本，许多美国买家提前取消了订单，直接导致莱索托的纺织 工厂倒闭，工人们纷纷失业，莱索托政府因此宣布进入"灾难状态"。这一事件不仅影响了莱索托，还可 能蔓延至其他非洲国家。美国对莱索托征收的15%关税，使得近20个非洲国家也受到了类似的影响。而 南非作为非洲的工业大国，也被征收了高达30%的关税，这对于依赖出口的经济体来说无疑是沉重打 击 ...

在中美两国之间游走的加拿大，似乎身处一个两难的境地，那么，它的未来究竟会如何发展呢？为何卡 尼面临一场可能的经济危机和外交风暴呢？ 近年来，加拿大的外交政策可谓风险重重。就在G7峰会刚刚结束之际，加拿大政府迅速决定对美国的 科技巨头们征收一项引起国际广泛关注的"数字税"。这一举动不仅被认为是对美国科技霸权的直接挑 战，尤其是那些在市场上占据主导地位的企业，如谷歌、亚马逊等，这些公司将面临实质性的利润冲 击。 ——·加拿大在中美间的危险游戏·—— ——·前言·—— 加拿大决定对美国的科技巨头征收数字税的举措，迅速点燃了两国之间的贸易争端。根据加拿大政府发 布的数字服务税法案，所有在加国开展特定数字服务业务的美国科技公司，将被征收高达3%的税款， 而这一税款将追溯至2022年。这意味着像亚马逊、谷歌等大型企业可能需要向加拿大政府支付高达20亿 美元的巨额税款。 或许，加拿大政府在做出这一决策时并未充分估算其后果。这步棋看似是为了增强国际话语权，但实际 上却无意间将其推向了中美博弈的漩涡之中。表面上，这项政策是突然出台，实际上却隐藏着深思熟虑 的长期战略。在全球数字经济蓬勃发展的今日，加拿大急切希望借助征收数字税来 ...

早上好，来看一些热点消息。 美联储，大消息！ 8月21日晚间，美联储发生了多件大事。 第一，美国司法部计划调查美联储理事丽莎·库克。一名司法部高官周四致信美联储主席鲍威尔，告知 此项调查并敦促他将库克移出理事会。 司法部官员埃德·马丁在信中告诉鲍威尔，库克的案件"需要进一步审查"。马丁写道："在此，我敦促你 将库克女士从董事会中移除。今天就行动，否则为时已晚！毕竟，没有美国人会认为在这种阴云笼罩的 情况下，她继续任职是合适的。"在此之前，特朗普已呼吁库克辞职。库克周三回应称，她打算留在央 行。 库克通过美联储发言人发表书面声明称："我绝不会因为一条推文里提出的问题就被迫辞职。作为美联 储成员，我会认真对待任何关于我财务历史的问题，因此我正在收集准确的信息，以便回应任何合法质 询并提供事实。" 第二，克利夫兰联储主席贝丝·哈马克表示，如果美联储明天就要作出政策决定，她不会支持降息。 哈马克周四在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔接受采访时表示："目前通胀依然过高，并且在过去一年呈现上行趋 势。根据我掌握的信息，如果会议在明天举行，我看不到降息的理由。" 其他在周三和周四发声的美联储官员也表达了与哈马克类似的鹰派立场。堪萨斯城联 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. tariff policy is causing a "disaster state" in Lesotho and potentially across Africa, disrupting a previously beneficial trade relationship that provided jobs and income stability [1][3]. Group 1: Impact on Lesotho - Lesotho's textile manufacturing sector, which heavily relies on U.S. market demand, is facing factory closures and job losses due to new tariffs, leading to a spike in unemployment [3]. - The U.S. has imposed a 15% tariff on Lesotho, with similar tariffs affecting nearly 20 other African countries, including a 30% tariff on South Africa and 25% on Tunisia [3]. Group 2: Trade vs. Aid - The article argues that trade, rather than aid, is essential for poverty alleviation in Africa, a principle supported by bipartisan U.S. policy through the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) [4]. - AGOA, enacted in 2000, significantly increased non-oil exports from sub-Saharan Africa to the U.S., growing from approximately $8 billion to nearly $40 billion [4]. Group 3: Criticism of AGOA - Critics point out that AGOA has limitations, as only 32 out of 54 African countries qualify for duty-free exports, and the benefits are concentrated in a few nations [5]. - There are concerns that AGOA is not mutually beneficial, as many African countries are too poor to purchase more U.S. goods, limiting the program's effectiveness [5]. Group 4: Trade Deficits and Economic Growth - The U.S. has trade deficits with several African nations, including $234 million with Lesotho, which is seen as a sign of successful cooperation that helps develop local industries and create jobs [6]. - The article suggests that trade deficits can lead to economic prosperity in Africa, contrasting with the limitations of aid [6]. Group 5: Future of AGOA - AGOA is set to expire unless Congress approves its renewal, raising concerns that its expiration could allow other countries to increase their influence in Africa and lead to higher prices for U.S. consumers [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September, and the market is focusing on pricing the rate cut amplitude. Inflation pressure will limit the scope of this rate cut [3][4][13]. - China's "dual discount interest" policy has been implemented to boost domestic demand, and the probability of a domestic interest rate cut in the third quarter has further decreased [5][6]. - China's economic data in July was affected by multiple factors, but it is still likely to achieve the annual economic growth target of 5% [8][10][12]. - In the short - term, geopolitical risk premiums have temporarily ended, but there are still persistent impacts. A - shares are in a bull market pattern, but the index may experience short - term corrections. Bond prices will be in a low - level shock state [15][16]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Macroeconomic Observation 1.1 Impact of Tariffs on Inflation and Fed Rate Cut Expectations - US CPI in July was slightly lower than expected, but core CPI reached a new high for the second time this year. PPI exceeded expectations, with a 0.9% month - on - month increase, the largest in three years, and a 3.3% year - on - year increase, the highest since February [3]. - The impact of tariffs on commodity prices is gradually emerging, and the upward pressure on commodity inflation will continue to accumulate. The price of the service industry in July significantly contributed to inflation, and the pressure on CPI to rise in the coming months is increasing [3][4]. - Although inflation data shows signs of an uptick, the Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September. The market is focusing on pricing the rate cut amplitude, and inflation pressure will limit the scope of this rate cut [4]. 1.2 Implementation of the "Dual Discount Interest" Policy to Expand Domestic Demand - The "dual discount interest" policy of personal consumer loan discount interest and service industry business entity loan discount interest has been launched, which forms a synergy to stimulate consumption with other policies. It helps improve the efficiency of fiscal funds [5]. - In the future, the policy may continue to explore the synergy between fiscal funds and financial resources, and the weight of structural tools and special fiscal policies may increase. The probability of a domestic interest rate cut in the third quarter has further decreased [5][6]. 1.3 China's Economic Situation in July - China's economic data in July showed a contraction in both supply and demand, with a more obvious slowdown in domestic demand. Consumption recovery momentum weakened marginally, investment remained weak, and financial data also showed slow demand - side repair [8][10][11]. - Although China's economy is affected by multiple temporary factors in the short - term, it is still likely to achieve the annual economic growth target of 5% [12]. 1.4 Next Week's Key Points - The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September, and the market is pricing the rate cut amplitude. Inflation pressure will limit the scope of this rate cut [13]. - The short - term geopolitical risk premium from the US - Russia summit has ended, but there are still persistent impacts. A - shares are in a bull market pattern, but the index may experience short - term corrections. Bond prices will be in a low - level shock state [15][16]. 2. Domestic Key Events and Important Economic Data - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to maintain liquidity, promote reasonable price increases, and release consumption potential. This week, the central bank achieved a net withdrawal of 4149 billion yuan [17]. - The "dual discount interest" policy has been introduced, with a 1 - percentage - point annual discount interest rate. The personal consumer loan discount interest policy has a cumulative discount interest cap of 3000 yuan per borrower, and the service industry business entity loan discount interest policy has a maximum loan scale of 1 million yuan per household [17]. - China's deflation pressure eased slightly in July. CPI was flat year - on - year, PPI was negative for 34 consecutive months, but the month - on - month decline narrowed. Core CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, the highest in 17 months [17]. - In July, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail sales increased by 3.7% year - on - year. The "national subsidy" funds of 138 billion yuan were issued, and the automobile sales volume increased by 14.7% year - on - year [17][18]. - From January to July, national fixed - asset investment increased by 1.6% year - on - year, and real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% year - on - year. The sales prices of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline narrowed overall [18]. - China and the US suspended the implementation of 24% tariffs for 90 days. As of the end of July, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 5.6% year - on - year, and M0 increased by 11.8% year - on - year [18]. 3. Overseas Key Events and Important Economic Data - In the US, the PPI in July increased significantly, with a 3.3% year - on - year increase. CPI was flat compared to the previous month, slightly lower than expected, while core CPI reached a five - month high, higher than expected [19]. - After the release of the US CPI data, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September rose to 90.1%. Trump nominated E·J·Anthony as the next director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and expanded the list of candidates for the Fed chairman [19]. - The EU plans to formulate the 19th round of sanctions against Russia and provide more military assistance to Ukraine. The Japanese central bank is under pressure to abandon an inflation indicator to pave the way for an interest rate hike [19]. - Trump said he would not impose tariffs on gold. The US Treasury Secretary said that the trade team will meet with China in the next two or three months. The US - Russia summit has not reached an agreement but is close [20]. 4. Next Week's Key Data/Events - On August 18, the US will release the NAHB housing market index for August. - On August 20, China will release the one - year and five - year loan prime rates (LPR) for August, and the eurozone will release the CPI and core CPI year - on - year and month - on - month for July, as well as the preliminary PMI values for August. - On August 21, the US will release the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending August 16, the Markit manufacturing, service, and composite PMI preliminary values for August, and the year - on - year total of existing home sales in July. - From August 22 to 23, the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting will be held (to be determined). [21]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in tariffs on 407 derivative products related to steel and aluminum by the Trump administration is a strategic move aimed at protecting domestic industries while also serving political interests in an election year [1][3]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Industries - The newly added 407 products include items closely related to steel and aluminum, such as alloy wheels for cars and cold-rolled steel sheets for appliances, effectively extending the tariff to a wide range of industries [3]. - Domestic automotive manufacturers that previously relied on imported specialty steel will face increased costs, potentially leading to reduced profit margins or price hikes for consumers [3]. - The tariffs are expected to provide short-term benefits to U.S. steel and aluminum companies, increasing their orders and production [4]. Group 2: Political and Economic Context - The stated purpose of the tariffs is to protect the struggling domestic steel and aluminum industries, which have been facing low capacity utilization rates [3]. - The tariffs may also be a strategic move to secure votes from workers in the "Rust Belt," a key demographic for Trump, as increased orders could lead to job stability [3]. - European countries have threatened retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural products, which could impact U.S. exports of soybeans and corn, indicating a potential escalation in trade tensions [3]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Investors should monitor U.S. steel and aluminum companies that may benefit from the tariff-induced demand increase, but caution is advised regarding the sustainability of this policy [4]. - Companies with manufacturing facilities in Mexico or Canada that can circumvent tariffs by processing materials before exporting to the U.S. may find new opportunities [4]. - High-end steel and aluminum manufacturers in China could gain market share in Southeast Asia and South America if they can enhance their technological competitiveness [4]. Group 4: Long-term Investment Strategy - Trade tensions are likened to a prolonged arm-wrestling match, suggesting that investors should focus on companies with strong technology and market presence rather than getting caught up in tariff fluctuations [5].