【环球网财经综合报道】据香港万得通讯社报道，美国总统特朗普正积极推动房利美和房地美的私有 化，并已开始征求华尔街顶级投行高管的意见，探讨通过IPO等方式实现政府退出，并最终解决这 一"后危机时代"的重大遗留问题。 针对推动"两房"私有化，有市场人士分析认为，这将对政府、银行和现有股东而言都可能意味着巨大的 经济利益，鉴于"两房"的庞大规模，其公开发行可能成为有史以来规模最大的IPO之一，这将为被选中 的承销银行带来丰厚的承销费用。 据知情人士透露，特朗普已于上周在白宫会见了摩根大通首席执行官Jamie Dimon，并计划与高盛的 David Solomon以及美国银行的Brian Moynihan等银行家会面。会谈的核心议题是，要求这些银行就如何 将"两房"进行货币化提出具体方案，并将它们重新推向公开市场。 银河证券当时发布的研究报告指出，两房问题的根源在于美国的房地产市场。从美国房地产市场的情况 看，尽管预示房地产未来走向的新屋开工数量与营建许可增速仍在下降，但房屋销售开始有所稳定，未 来情况虽不乐观，但也不至于更糟。 2008年美国爆发次贷危机后，为防止美国经济因房地产下滑与次贷危机影响进入衰退，美国财政 ...

导读：黄金，在中国文化中有着特殊的地位。早在4000年之前的商周时期，黄金就是身份的标识。作为曾经的四大文 明古国，中国人以黄金作为货币的时间比纸币更长久。对黄金的投资，也是刻入大家骨子里的。 去年11月的一个周末，我带着儿子参加了一次同学聚会。有一个同学的妈妈知道我是做金融的，就来和我讨论怎么做投 资。那时候美国大选已经开始正式投票，特朗普当选的呼声很高。大家普遍的观点是，一旦特朗普当选会让世界格局重 新回到混沌的状态。 许多人都有自己投资黄金的故事，其中最精彩的或许是押注黄金15年的对冲基金大佬：约翰·保尔森（John Alfred Paulson）。。。。。。 史上最伟大的一笔交易者 虽然这些家长不是做金融的，但是对政治和历史也颇有研究。那天一个下午，我们从特朗普当选后的地缘政治冲突，一 直聊到美国债务问题如何解决，最后又谈到了2008年的金融危机。那一年无论是股票还是房子，都出现了暴跌。唯独 黄金是涨的。 约翰·保尔森这个名字，对于华尔街的"老人"应该并不陌生（注：和美国前财政部长亨利·保尔森是两个人）。他父母都 是美国移民，在纽约皇后区长大，本科去了纽约大学。一直到2005年之前，约翰·保尔森在投资 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. real estate market follows an 18-year cyclical pattern, with a predicted downturn starting in 2026 that will have widespread negative impacts on the economy [1][3] - Historical data shows significant real estate crashes in the U.S. in 1972, 1990, and 2008, each occurring 18 years apart, indicating a strong correlation between real estate downturns and economic recessions [3][4] - The 2008 financial crisis exemplified how the collapse of the real estate market can lead to a broader financial crisis, as seen with the failures of Lehman Brothers and Fannie Mae [3][4] Group 2 - The upcoming downturn in the U.S. real estate market necessitates proactive strategies from China to mitigate potential impacts, including implementing policies to stabilize its own real estate market [6] - Chinese companies with overseas investments should conduct risk assessments to prepare for the underlying risks associated with the current U.S. real estate "prosperity" [6] - The potential recession in the U.S. could adversely affect China's export industries, highlighting the need for strategic development in relevant market sectors to counteract the effects of the U.S. real estate cycle [6]

Core Viewpoint - The significant rise in gold prices in 2023, from 620 CNY per gram to a peak of 836 CNY per gram, has sparked a nationwide investment trend in gold, reminiscent of the "golden aunt" phenomenon in 2013, raising questions about the sustainability of this trend [2] Historical Context of Gold Price Surges First Phase (1970-1980) - Gold prices surged from 35 USD to 850 USD, marking a 2300% increase following the collapse of the Bretton Woods system [4] - This phase led to global central banks adjusting their foreign exchange reserves, increasing gold purchases and challenging the dollar's dominance [5] - Gold production entered an expansion cycle, with countries like South Africa and Russia ramping up mining activities [5] - The oil crisis and high inflation positioned gold as a key asset against currency devaluation [5] - The Federal Reserve was compelled to adopt aggressive interest rate hikes, reaching 20%, to curb inflation, which ultimately ended the gold bull market but initiated the development of modern financial derivatives like gold futures [5] Second Phase (2008-2011) - Following the 2008 financial crisis, gold experienced a second bull market with a 166% increase [7] - The demand for gold as a safe haven led to the democratization of investment, exemplified by the rise of gold ETFs and regular central bank gold purchases [7] - The consumer market saw structural changes, with high gold prices driving a shift towards lightweight jewelry and innovations in gold leasing and collateral financing [7] Third Phase (2018-Present) - The current bull market, driven by geopolitical tensions and policy conflicts, has seen gold prices rise over 100% from 2018 to 2025 [9] - Increased market volatility and speculative trading in futures markets have been observed, with COMEX gold futures premiums reaching 60 USD per ounce and physical inventory surging by 18.6 million ounces in a month [9] - Competition from alternative assets has become more pronounced, with significant growth in platinum orders and a 30% increase in sales of K-gold and silver jewelry in China [9] - Fluctuations in monetary policy have led to a shift in the correlation between gold and U.S. equities, reflecting gold's dual role as a safe haven and a risk asset [9]

以下文章来源于东四十条资本 ，作者投中嘉川 当下的"危机"中，或许也孕育着新的投资机会。 作者丨投中嘉川 来源丨 投中网 近日，耶鲁大学捐赠基金PE资产抛售事件在全球资本市场掀起暗涌。据报道，耶鲁大学计划出售约60亿美元的私募股权投资组合，占其414亿美元捐赠基 金规模的15%，这是该校历史上首次在私募股权二级市场（S市场）进行大规模抛售。与此同时，哈佛大学因拒绝特朗普政府提出的在教学、招生和研究 等方面干涉其学术与言论自由的改革要求，面临22.6亿美元联邦经费冻结，且政府威胁取消其免税资格，市场预期哈佛可能也不得不开始出售流动性资产 甚至举债。 从"耶鲁模式"到范式危机 私募股权早已成为机构投资人配置的核心资产之一。自耶鲁大学开创大比例配置另类资产的"耶鲁模式"并取得丰厚回报后，多家美国高校调整其捐赠基金 配置比例。美国国家学院和大学商务办公室联合会（以下简称NACABO）数据显示， 大学捐赠基金私募股权与风险投资配置比例在过去20年攀升至接近 30%，与股票配置比例几乎相当。 东四十条资本 . 聚焦股权投资行业人物、事件、数据、研究、政策解读，提供专业视角和深度洞见 | 创投圈有趣的灵魂 将投中网设为"星 ...