Report Industry Investment Rating - The macro and financial sector of the global economy is rated as "downward" [1] Core Viewpoints - The global political order has entered a dark period of the law of the jungle, causing huge uncertainties to the global economy. The global economy has passed the peak and started to decline [2][4] - The Fed's uncertainty is expected to peak from July to November 2026, and the market may see a trend of "fleeing US assets" [2] - The construction boom of AI data centers in the next five years will require at least $5 trillion [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Economic Logic - The US has taken actions such as attempting to control Venezuelan oil and purchasing Greenland, which has disrupted the global political order [2] - The US prosecutor has launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, and the Fed has restarted the expansion of its balance - sheet [2] - Goldman Sachs warns that the decline in Las Vegas gambling revenue is similar to the early warning signal before the 2008 financial crisis [2] - The US is adjusting its economic relationship with China and aiming to revive its economic autonomy [2] - The K - shaped differentiation of consumers in the US is intensifying [2] - The Bank of Japan has raised interest rates, and the yield of Japanese 10 - year treasury bonds has risen [2] - Google plans to double its AI computing power every six months and increase it by 1000 times in the next 4 - 5 years [2] - NVIDIA's CEO believes that China will win the AI competition [2] Morning Session Notice - Trump has launched fiscal, monetary, and credit stimulus, but it may lead to future debt crises and market crashes [1] - Citigroup's report indicates that the commodity market is at a turning point, with different price outlooks for various commodities [1] - US retail sales in November exceeded expectations, and the PPI rebounded [1] - The cost gap between building space data centers and ground data centers is narrowing [1] - The demand for global AI chips is constrained by TSMC's production capacity [1] - NVIDIA's new architecture is expected to increase the demand for NAND flash memory [1] - OpenAI has signed a deal with Cerebras worth over $1 billion [1] Other - The US's return to the Monroe Doctrine will have a profound impact on major asset classes [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that a severe market crash is expected in 2026, with a predicted 90% decline in the stock market, marking the worst market environment since the Great Depression [1] - The current market bubble, which has lasted nearly 17 years, is characterized by debt-driven "super bubbles" affecting stocks, real estate, and digital assets [1] - The economic cycle is traced back to the 2008 financial crisis, where aggressive monetary interventions prevented a natural economic reset, leading to an accelerated expansion [1] Group 2 - January 2026 is identified as a critical period for determining whether the bubble will burst or extend further, with historical trends suggesting that weak performance in January could confirm bearish predictions [2] - Major speculative bubbles historically end in significant losses, and this instance is expected to follow the same pattern, with the current situation described as excessively exaggerated [2] - The only asset likely to "survive" the impending crash is U.S. Treasury bonds, as they can be repaid through money printing, contrasting with other economists' views on a potential dollar collapse in 2026 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses historical market crashes and the strategies employed by various investors during these crises, highlighting the importance of timing, market sentiment, and the psychological aspects of trading. Group 1: Historical Market Crashes - The article references the 1929 market crash, where Joseph P. Kennedy sold all his stocks and only held a long position in a Cuban sugar company, indicating a strategic exit from the market when sentiment was overly bullish [6][8]. - Jesse Livermore, known as the "King of Speculation," made significant profits by shorting the market before the 1929 crash, earning $1 billion (equivalent to $20 billion today) [11][12]. - The 1987 crash is highlighted with the story of Mark Cook, who turned a $30,000 investment into $11 million by holding deep out-of-the-money puts on the S&P 500 [15][17]. Group 2: Investor Strategies and Lessons - Bill Lawton, CEO of Westgate Global Group, profited from the 1987 crash by betting on volatility, emphasizing that calmness is crucial during crises [33][34]. - John Paulson made a significant profit during the 2008 financial crisis by purchasing credit default swaps (CDS) against subprime mortgages, earning $10 billion from a $22 million investment [50][52]. - The article mentions the importance of being contrarian, as seen in the actions of various investors who thrived during market downturns by maintaining a clear strategy and not succumbing to panic [12][34][50]. Group 3: Current Market Indicators - The article notes that the cost of options to protect against a significant market downturn has risen to 46 basis points, the highest level since the sell-off in April [66]. - It suggests that investors are increasingly willing to pay for insurance against a potential 55% drop in the S&P 500 over the next five years, indicating heightened market anxiety [66][69].

Group 1: Market Overview - COMEX gold futures closed down on November 17, with December delivery gold futures reported at $4070.6 per ounce, a decrease of $23.6 [1] - Spot gold prices also experienced a slight decline during the early trading session in the U.S. [1] Group 2: Economic Data Release - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the delayed September employment report will be released on November 20, and the inflation-adjusted wage data for September will be published on November 21, both at 7:30 AM Central Time [3] - These reports are expected to provide insights into the U.S. economic conditions, although they may be more lagging than usual [3] Group 3: Market Risks and Warnings - Bond investment giant Jeffrey Gundlach issued a stern warning about significant risks lurking in the stock and financial markets, citing rampant "junk bonds" and severe valuation distortions [3] - Gundlach, known as the "Bond King" of Wall Street, emphasized the need for investors to hold cash and avoid private credit, suggesting that 20% of investment funds should be allocated to cash to prepare for potential market crashes [3][4] - He expressed deep concerns about the $1.7 trillion private credit market, likening it to "junk loans" and warning it could trigger the next global market collapse [4] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Gold Futures - The next upward target for December gold futures is to break the key resistance level of $4398.00 per ounce, while the recent downward target is to push prices below the key support level of $4000.00 per ounce [4] - Initial resistance levels are identified at the overnight high of $4107.60 per ounce and then at $4150.00 per ounce; initial support levels are at the overnight low of $4051.10 per ounce and last Friday's low of $4032.60 per ounce [4]

Core Viewpoint - The current AI-driven market may resemble the 1929 crash, indicating a potential bubble that could lead to a market collapse, with the situation being either an "extraordinary boom" or an "overvaluation" [3][4]. Group 1: AI Market Dynamics - The economic landscape is heavily reliant on massive investments in artificial intelligence, with "hundreds of billions" currently being invested in the sector, which is supporting overall economic performance [5]. - There is significant uncertainty regarding whether the optimism surrounding AI is due to a long-term technological revolution or merely a temporary speculative frenzy [5]. Group 2: Historical Comparisons - The current market environment is compared to the 2000 internet bubble and the 2008 real estate bubble, both of which were driven by new technologies or financial instruments leading to irrational exuberance and subsequent market crashes [5][6]. Group 3: Market Vulnerabilities - Key factors exacerbating market fragility include regulatory relaxations during the Trump administration, increasing reliance on debt, and recent policy changes allowing private equity investments in 401(k) retirement accounts [6]. - The combination of speculation, rising debt, and dismantled regulatory safeguards creates a precarious market environment [7]. Group 4: Predictions of Market Collapse - While the exact timing and depth of a potential market collapse cannot be predicted, there is a strong belief in the inevitability of such an event due to the nature of financial markets being driven by confidence, which can collapse suddenly [7].

Core Viewpoint - Andrew Ross Sorkin warns that the current AI-driven market resembles historical bubbles, suggesting an inevitable market crash, although the timing and severity are unpredictable [1][5] Group 1: AI Market Dynamics - The current economic landscape heavily relies on massive investments in artificial intelligence, with "hundreds of billions" being funneled into the sector, which is supporting overall economic performance [3] - There is a critical dilemma for investors regarding whether the optimism surrounding AI is due to a long-term technological revolution or merely a fleeting speculative frenzy [3] Group 2: Historical Comparisons - Sorkin compares the current market environment to the internet bubble of 2000 and the real estate bubble of 2008, both of which were characterized by irrational exuberance leading to severe market crashes [3][5] Group 3: Contributing Factors to Market Vulnerability - Key factors exacerbating market fragility include deregulation during the Trump administration, increasing reliance on debt, and recent policy changes allowing private equity investments in 401(k) retirement accounts [4] - The combination of speculation, rising debt, and dismantled regulatory safeguards creates a precarious market environment [5]

Report Summary Core Views - The ongoing partial shutdown of the US federal government has postponed the release of multiple data, and the preliminary estimate of Q3 GDP in the US might also be affected [2]. - The US's tariff increase and export control measures against China will likely impact the domestic futures market this week, with negative effects on stock index futures and most commodity futures, and positive effects on Treasury bond futures, gold, and silver futures [2]. - The release of various economic data and reports this week, including China's import and export data, financial statistics, and the US's retail sales and housing data, is expected to influence the futures market [2][4][9] Weekly Key Events and Forecasts October 13 - China's September import and export data: Expected export growth of 7.1% and import growth of 1.5% in USD terms, which may boost stock index and commodity futures prices [4]. - OPEC's monthly crude oil market report: The report's outcome may affect crude oil and related commodity futures prices [5]. - World Bank and IMF's 2025 Autumn Annual Meeting: Central bank governors may discuss potential market crashes and their impact on the global economy [6]. October 14 - Prices of important production materials in circulation in early October: The data of 9 categories and 50 products may influence the futures market [8]. - IEA's monthly crude oil market report: May affect crude oil and related commodity futures prices [10]. October 15 - China's September financial statistics: Expected M2 growth of 8.5%, new RMB loans of 1375 billion yuan, and social financing scale increment of 3450 billion yuan, which may impact the futures market [9][12]. - National energy consumption data: The results may affect relevant futures prices [11]. - WBMS global metal supply - demand report: May impact relevant metal futures prices [13]. October 16 - NOPA soybean crushing report: May affect soybean and related agricultural product futures prices [14]. - Fed's Beige Book: May influence relevant futures prices [15]. - US September retail sales: Expected monthly rates of 0.4% and 0.3% for retail sales and core retail sales respectively, which may slightly inhibit the rise of most commodity futures prices except for gold and silver [16]. October 17 - US EIA crude oil inventory change: Continued increase may suppress crude oil and related commodity futures prices [17]. - US September new housing starts and building permits: Slightly higher than previous values may help basic metal futures prices rise and suppress gold and silver futures prices [18]. - US September industrial output: Expected monthly growth rate of 0.1% [19].

Core Viewpoint - Ray Dalio suggests that investors should allocate at least 15% of their portfolios to gold and Bitcoin due to rising risks in the bond and stock markets [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Risks - Dalio highlights that the macroeconomic risks from rising government debt in the U.S. and other regions are not yet reflected in market pricing, potentially leading to significant market declines [1]. - He points out that U.S. government spending exceeds income by 40%, with accumulated debt being six times the annual income, and annual interest payments reaching $1 trillion, which constitutes half of the budget deficit [1]. - Dalio warns that the government may only be able to repay debt by issuing more debt and through "money printing" by the Federal Reserve, which could incite market panic [1]. Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Dalio strongly favors gold over Bitcoin as a hedge against fiat currencies and cash equivalents, expressing skepticism about central banks adopting Bitcoin as a reserve currency due to its lack of privacy [2]. - He acknowledges concerns regarding Bitcoin, such as the potential for its code to be hacked or its protocol to be altered, which could undermine its value storage function [2]. - Dalio's personal investment portfolio has a higher allocation to gold compared to Bitcoin, indicating a cautious approach towards the latter [2]. Group 3: Gold vs. Bitcoin - Gold is considered a more suitable diversification tool than Bitcoin, as it tends to appreciate during times of risk aversion, serving as useful insurance for investment portfolios [3]. - Some experts caution that the risks associated with gold may be higher than commonly perceived, citing historical instances where gold underperformed significantly [3]. - The volatility of Bitcoin is acknowledged, but historical data shows that long-term holders of gold during certain inflationary periods faced substantial losses [3].

Core Viewpoint - Senator Warren stated that if Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell were to be fired or forced out, it would lead to a market crash [1] Group 1 - The potential removal of Jerome Powell is seen as a significant risk to market stability [1] - Senator Warren's comments highlight the importance of leadership at the Federal Reserve in maintaining investor confidence [1]

Core Viewpoint - Senator Warren stated that if Powell were to be dismissed or forced to resign, the market would collapse [1] Group 1 - The potential dismissal of Powell is seen as a significant risk to market stability [1]