证券研究报告 | 2025年11月24日 社会服务行业双周报（第 119 期） 优于大市 三亚发放新一轮免税消费券，2026 届预计新增 48 万普通高校毕业生 板块复盘：消费者服务板块报告期内下跌 2.03%，跑赢大盘 2.78pct。报告 期内（2025 年 11 月 10 日-11 月 23 日），国信社服板块涨幅居前的股票为 百胜中国（9.53%）、科德教育（9.20%）、锦江酒店（8.99%）、华住集团 -S（8.69%）、云南旅游（6.96%）、君亭酒店、首旅酒店、米奥会展、兰生 股份、长白山。国信社服板块跌幅居前的股票为呷哺呷哺（-20.20%）、中 国东方教育（-13.28%）、全聚德（-11.93%）、新高教集团（-11.67%）岭 南控股（-11.26%）、学大教育、澳博控股、豆神教育、海伦司、东方甄选。 行业与公司动态：三亚启动第六期免税消费券发放，通过 CDF 三亚国际免税 城、三亚海旅免税城等四家主要免税店的微信小程序发放；2026 届全国普 通高校毕业生规模预计达 1270 万人，同比增长 48 万人，教育部已部署开展 促就业行动；外交部提醒中国公民近期避免前往日本旅游，或冬季出境 ...

廖市无双：上证破趋势，大盘何去何从？20251123 摘要 上证指数跌破 4 月 7 日以来的上升趋势线，确认五浪结构破位及日线 MACD 底背离，预示将进入 ABC 调整结构，需关注调整结构发展及各 指数表现。当前指数在 3,700-3,800 点区域具备较强支撑，包括 3,732 点、3,774 点和 3,702 点等关键点位。 创业板指数自 10 月 17 日以来创新高后随上证指数调整，形成 A 浪下跌。 科创 50 指数呈现 ABC 结构，C 段加速下跌。创业板风险相对较高，需 谨慎对待，而恒生科技和科创 50 指数调整较为充分，无需进一步杀跌。 本周无行业板块上涨，前期强势板块如电芯、基础化工、钢铁、医药、 有色等显著回调，锂矿链条跌幅接近 10%。银行和食品饮料等防御性板 块相对抗跌，银行因前期回调具备防御属性，食品饮料因涨幅小且风险 释放表现稳健。 美联储降息预期减弱导致全球流动性收紧，比特币价格大幅下跌，引发 以其为抵押的经营经理面临流动性紧张，负面影响传导至股票市场。英 伟达财报超预期但应收账款和存货增加引发质疑，可能影响国内科技股。 Q&A 上证指数和上证 50 的近期走势如何，未来可能会 ...

本周受美联储年内降息预期减弱影响，全球股市明显下跌，A 股亦未能"独善其身"。 展望后市，考虑权重指数本周才"刚刚"跌破趋势线，且全球资本市场波动尚未平息， 我们认为短期仍有惯性调整、逐步收敛的需要。需要指出的是，随着四季度市场风格 的"再平衡"，部分宽基指数的回调已较充分，在当前位置再无必要盲目止损。从更长 周期看，我们认为系统性"慢"牛仍未结束，并有望在调整后进入"二阶段"。配置方面， 基于"短期调整仍需时日，部分指数趋于到位，拉长周期慢牛仍在"的判断，我们建议： 择时方面，切勿盲目跟风杀跌，持仓静待调整结束，以目前回调至年线上方且具有爆 发力的券商板块作为"信号弹"，待券商启动时再度进行增配操作；行业配置和个股方 面应区分处理，对于近期刚刚破位的高位标的不宜恋战，但对于相对低位板块（如券 商、消费、地产、中字头基建等）和年线上方的低位滞涨个股则予以保留。 本周（2025-11-17 至 2025-11-21）行情概况 （1）主要指数：受海外股市波动影响，A 股主要宽基指数下跌。（2）板块观察： 主要行业系统回调，银行食饮相对抗跌。（3）市场情绪：沪深成交环比下降，主 要股指期货合约贴水。（4）资金流向： ...

Market Liquidity Overview - R007 increased from 1.4677% to 1.4945%, a rise of 2.68 basis points, while DR007 rose from 1.4130% to 1.4673%, an increase of 5.43 basis points. The spread between R007 and DR007 narrowed by 2.75 basis points [9][13] - The net outflow of funds this week was 12.693 billion yuan, with net inflow decreasing by 28.346 billion yuan compared to last week. Fund supply was 44.735 billion yuan, while demand was 57.428 billion yuan [13][16] Industry Sector Liquidity Tracking - Most sectors in the CITIC first-level industry index rose, with the consumer services sector leading with a weekly increase of 4.81%. Other sectors like textiles, apparel, and pharmaceuticals also saw slight increases. The telecommunications and electronics sectors led the declines, with drops of 4.90% and 4.44% respectively [18][21] - The basic chemical industry saw the highest net inflow of leveraged funds at 4.935 billion yuan, while the computer industry experienced the most significant net outflow at 3.728 billion yuan [21][22] Style Sector Liquidity Tracking - The consumer style index had the largest increase in daily trading volume share, rising by 1.98%, while the growth style saw the largest decline, dropping by 2.20%. The growth style remains the most active sector, accounting for 52.92% of daily trading volume [31][34] - The main funds in the style sectors showed a trend of reduction, with the stable style seeing the largest increase of 0.35 billion yuan, while the growth style experienced a significant reduction of 17.877 billion yuan [33][34]

华泰证券研报表示，上周港股冲高回落，恒生指数上涨1.3%，恒生科技指数下跌0.4%。行业间高低切 演绎较为极致，今年以来相对滞涨的板块上周涨跌幅排名靠前，如农林牧渔、房地产、医药、石油石 化、纺织服饰等。在盈利数据并未明显改善的情况下资金提前切换，或因当前流动性承压、主线不清晰 等交易性因素。若资金高低切持续，短期建议关注今年以来表现排名靠后的消费者服务、建筑、纺织服 装、家电以及具有防御属性的红利方向。此外，12月开始港股流动性压力边际暂缓，切换或难一帆风 顺，依然建议均衡配置。 ...

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the social services sector [4][26]. Core Views - The social services sector is expected to benefit from favorable national policies aimed at expanding domestic demand, leading to a continuous recovery in valuations during the reporting period [4][26]. - The report highlights a significant increase in duty-free shopping in Hainan, with a year-on-year growth of 35% in the first week of the new policy implementation [2][18]. - The consumer services sector outperformed the market, with a reported increase of 4.04% during the period from October 27 to November 7, 2025, surpassing the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index by 3.65 percentage points [1][13]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The consumer services sector rose by 4.04%, ranking fifth among all industry indices, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index increased by only 0.39% [1][13]. - Notable stock performances included Caesar Travel (up 18.39%), China Duty Free (up 12.01%), and Quanjude (up 11.86%) [1][14]. Industry and Company Dynamics - Various regions in China are piloting spring and autumn vacation systems for primary and secondary schools to optimize student holiday structures [2][17]. - The new duty-free shopping policy in Hainan has expanded the range of products available, contributing to a significant increase in shopping amounts [2][18]. - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments have issued a plan to enhance urban commercial quality, aiming to stimulate consumption [2][19]. - Ele.me has initiated a brand refresh, testing the name "Taobao Flash Purchase" to enhance delivery services [2][20]. - Starbucks has sold a 60% stake in its China business to Boyu Capital for $4 billion, valuing the joint venture at over $13 billion [2][22]. Stock Holdings Analysis - Core stocks in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, such as Haidilao and Tianli International Holdings, saw increases in shareholding percentages during the reporting period [3][25]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on companies like Atour, Huazhu Group, China Duty Free, and Ctrip, among others, for investment opportunities [4][26]. - Mid-term recommendations include China Duty Free, Meituan, and Haidilao, indicating a broad range of companies across the social services sector [4][26].

- The "A-Share Market Timing Model" evaluates the overall directional judgment of the A-share market using four dimensions: valuation, sentiment, funds, and technicals. The model generates daily signals with values of 0, ±1, representing neutral, bullish, and bearish views, respectively. The model's logic includes mean reversion for valuation and sentiment, and trend continuation for funds and technicals[2][9][15] - The "Style Timing Model" favors a barbell structure of dividend and small-cap styles. For the dividend style, the model uses the relative momentum of the CSI Dividend Index to the CSI All Share Index, the 10Y-1Y term spread, and the interbank pledged repo transaction volume. For the small-cap style, the model employs a trend model based on the difference in momentum and trading volume between small-cap and large-cap stocks[3][17][21] - The "Industry Rotation Model" uses genetic programming to directly extract factors from the volume, price, and valuation characteristics of industry indices. The model updates its factor library quarterly and rebalances weekly, selecting the top five industries with the highest multi-factor composite scores for equal-weight allocation[4][29][34] - The "China Domestic All-Weather Enhanced Portfolio" employs a macro factor risk parity framework, selecting four macro risk sources: growth above/below expectations and inflation above/below expectations. The model actively overweights favored quadrants based on macro expectation momentum, adjusting monthly[5][39][42] - The "A-Share Market Timing Model" achieved a year-to-date return of 36.03%, with an excess return of 8.86% over the Wind All A Index, which had a return of 27.18%[2][9] - The "Style Timing Model" for the dividend style yielded a year-to-date return of 25.04%, with an excess return of 7.83% over the benchmark, which had a return of 17.21%[17][20] - The "Style Timing Model" for the small-cap style achieved a year-to-date return of 78.29%, with an excess return of 30.25% over the benchmark, which had a return of 48.04%[22][27] - The "Industry Rotation Model" achieved a year-to-date return of 40.67%, outperforming the industry equal-weight benchmark by 17.96 percentage points[4][32] - The "China Domestic All-Weather Enhanced Portfolio" achieved a year-to-date return of 11.10%, with a Sharpe ratio of 2.22, a maximum drawdown of 2.67%, and a Calmar ratio of 5.15[5][40][43]

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a rebound, with significant gains in major tech stocks, driven by positive economic data and easing trade tensions [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rose over 2%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by more than 3% [1]. - Major tech stocks such as Alibaba-W, Tencent Holdings, Bilibili-W, Meituan-W, and Xiaomi Group-W saw gains of over 4%, 3%, and 2% respectively [1][2]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Investor Sentiment - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of 450.89 billion HKD last week, the highest in five weeks, indicating strong interest in the Hong Kong stock market [4]. - Year-to-date, net inflows from southbound capital have exceeded 1.1 trillion HKD, reflecting a positive sentiment towards Hong Kong stocks [4]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with the National Bureau of Statistics highlighting stable economic performance and progress in high-quality development [3]. - Easing trade tensions, marked by a video call between U.S. and Chinese trade leaders, has contributed to a more favorable market environment [3]. Group 4: ETF and Sector Performance - The Hong Kong Internet ETF (513770) opened higher, with a price increase of 2.25% and a trading volume exceeding 400 million HKD [2][4]. - The ETF tracks the CSI Hong Kong Internet Index, with major holdings including Alibaba-W, Tencent Holdings, and Xiaomi Group-W, which together account for over 46% of the ETF's weight [4][5]. Group 5: Valuation Metrics - The CSI Hong Kong Internet Index has a current P/E ratio of 26.69, which is lower than both U.S. and A-share tech valuations, indicating potential for growth [7]. - The index has shown significant resilience, outperforming the Hang Seng Tech Index in terms of elasticity this year, particularly under the influence of AI concepts [6][7].