高硫稳定弱势，低硫供应较预期增长 研究员：吴晓蓉 期货从业证号：F03108405 投资咨询证号：Z0021537 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析 | 4 | | 第三章 | 周度数据追踪 | 9 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 目录 低硫供应较预期增长，关注各地炼厂装置变化对供应的扰动影响。南苏丹消息，已恢复油田正常运营及原油正常出口，低硫供应缺口 扰动消退。低硫重质原料Dar Blend在8月苏丹与阿联酋矛盾后几乎全部流往泛新加坡地区。Dangote炼厂RFCC装置提前检修且检修 时长增长，同时原计划于12月初初级加工装置的轻度检修推迟至明年1月，预期低硫产出大幅回升。泛新加坡地区低硫供应减少不如 预期，马来西亚RFCC装置回归延迟，印尼新投产RFCC低负荷运行。需求端，低硫冬季发电需求暂无驱动，关注欧洲及东亚冬季气温 和天然气情况。 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/1 ...

中国成品油周报 研究员：童川 期货从业证号：F3071222 投资咨询证号：Z0017010 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析和数据追踪 | 4 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 ◼ 市场概况： 供应端，本周全国炼厂开工70.6%，环比下行1.2%，主营炼厂继续降负，上海石化开始检修，镇海炼化检修结束。独立炼厂开工持续上行，金诚 石化全厂检修结束后负荷答复回升，鑫海石化一次装置开始检修。主营汽柴油产量均继续下行，地炼汽柴产量均继续上行。柴汽比上行0.01至 1.43。需求端，本本周市场情绪偏悲观，市场参与者采购积极性下降，汽柴油车单和船单成交情况均有所下滑，汽柴产销率下滑，均未达产销平 衡。库存，商业库存汽柴油继续去库。汽油1023万吨，环比-18万吨（-1.8%） ...

Group 1: Government Initiatives - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and five other departments have issued a plan to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand, focusing on new fields such as smart connected vehicles and green building materials, and establishing pilot verification platforms in various industries [2] - Beijing's 14th Five-Year Plan emphasizes the construction of a green, low-carbon, and livable environment, with initiatives for environmental protection and waste battery recycling [4] - Henan Province has introduced policies to empower the green and low-carbon development of manufacturing through innovative financing methods, including the use of environmental rights as collateral [4] Group 2: Energy Projects - China's first large-capacity low-noise ultra-high voltage reactor has been successfully developed, filling a global gap in low-noise technology for large-capacity reactors [3] - The "Long Electric into Shandong" project has successfully integrated a 600MW/2400MWh energy storage station, enhancing the stability of the regional grid and supporting the large-scale delivery of clean energy [3] - Fujian Province's first user-side energy storage project has been commissioned, optimizing electricity usage and supporting the integration of intermittent renewable energy [5] Group 3: Industry Developments - Yunnan Province's green aluminum production capacity has reached 3.43 million tons, accounting for half of the province's total, with an expected output value exceeding 100 billion yuan [5] - China Resources Recycling Group has launched its first wind-thermal and solar-thermal coupling demonstration project, creating a diversified green energy supply system [8] Group 4: International News Impacting Industries - A gas leak incident in Spain resulted in four fatalities, highlighting potential risks in energy infrastructure [6] - Serbia's only oil refinery faces shutdown due to U.S. sanctions, which could significantly impact the country's economy [7] - A new heat-resistant perovskite-silicon tandem solar cell has been developed, achieving over 34% efficiency, indicating advancements in solar technology [7]

新华社北京11月26日电 塞尔维亚总统武契奇25日说，如果美国政府不撤销对塞尔维亚唯一炼油厂 NIS的制裁，这座由俄罗斯企业控股的炼油厂将在4天内彻底停止运转，恐给塞方经济带来"大麻烦"。塞 尔维亚媒体说，由于缺乏原油供应，NIS目前已陷入困境。 法新社援引多名专家说法报道，仅靠进口难以挽救NIS。经济学家戈兰·拉多萨夫列维奇说，在塞尔 维亚燃料市场上，NIS出产的油品大约占比80%，进口仅占20%左右，"增加进口会把痛苦推后几个月， 但如果无法继续运转，NIS将面临破产"。 美国财政部外国资产控制办公室今年1月对俄石油行业施加制裁，波及NIS，制裁措施10月9日生 效。俄罗斯天然气工业石油公司、俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司分别持有NIS公司44.9%和11.3%股份，塞 尔维亚政府则持股29.9%，另有一些小股东。美国政府寻求俄方投资完全撤出NIS，本月15日要求NIS在 明年2月13日前为俄方所持股份找到买家。 据法新社报道，上周，NIS向美方提出申请，要求在出售股权谈判进行期间暂时免受制裁，但美方 尚未作出回应。 武契奇25日说，塞方将建议美国政府给NIS公司50天时间出售俄方股权。如果期限内无法完成，塞 ...

新华社北京11月26日电 塞尔维亚总统武契奇25日说，如果美国政府不撤销对塞尔维亚唯一炼油厂 NIS的制裁，这座由俄罗斯企业控股的炼油厂将在4天内彻底停止运转，恐给塞方经济带来"大麻烦"。塞 尔维亚媒体说，由于缺乏原油供应，NIS目前已陷入困境。 武契奇当天在电视讲话中说："塞尔维亚面临大麻烦。你（美国政府）对俄罗斯及其企业施加制 裁，结果却让我们国家受到冲击。" 武契奇说，NIS的柴油储备为5.5万吨，汽油储备为5万吨，预计可以维持到12月底。塞尔维亚矿业 和能源部长杜布拉夫卡·杰多维奇·汉达诺维奇上周说，塞政府已批准进口3.8万吨汽油和6.6万吨柴油作为 国家储备。 法新社援引多名专家说法报道，仅靠进口难以挽救NIS。经济学家戈兰·拉多萨夫列维奇说，在塞尔 维亚燃料市场上，NIS出产的油品大约占比80%，进口仅占20%左右，"增加进口会把痛苦推后几个月， 但如果无法继续运转，NIS将面临破产"。 美国财政部外国资产控制办公室今年1月对俄石油行业施加制裁，波及NIS，制裁措施10月9日生 效。俄罗斯天然气工业石油公司、俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司分别持有NIS公司44.9%和11.3%股份，塞 尔维亚政府则持股 ...

Group 1: Oil and Chemical Industry Outlook - China Galaxy Securities forecasts Brent crude oil prices to range between $60-70 per barrel by 2026, with costs expected to stabilize [1] - The chemical industry is experiencing negative capital expenditure growth since 2024, with supply expected to contract due to the "anti-involution" trend and accelerated elimination of outdated overseas capacity [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" draft emphasizes expanding domestic demand, combined with the onset of the US interest rate cut cycle, which is expected to open up demand for chemical products [1] - A dual bottom in supply and demand is anticipated, with strong policy expectations catalyzing a potential cyclical upturn in the chemical industry by 2026, leading to a "Davis Double Play" from valuation recovery to earnings growth [1] Group 2: Specific Chemical Sector Recommendations - PTA industry is operating at low levels, with increasing calls for anti-involution; recommended companies include Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Xinfon Ming, and Tongkun [1] - Polyester filament capacity is becoming concentrated, with industry self-discipline enhancing cyclical elasticity; recommended companies include Xinfon Ming, Tongkun, and Hengyi Petrochemical [1] - The spandex industry is expected to see increased concentration; recommended companies include Huafeng Chemical and Xinxiang Chemical Fiber [1] - Global demand for pesticides is improving, with bottom-priced varieties likely to rebound; recommended companies include Yangnong Chemical, Runfeng Shares, Jiangshan Shares, Guangxin Shares, and Lier Chemical [1] - Organic silicon capacity expansion is nearing completion, with supply-demand dynamics expected to improve; recommended companies include Hesheng Silicon Industry, Xin'an Shares, and Dongyue Silicon Material [1] - The titanium dioxide industry is facing challenges and opportunities; recommended company is Longbai Group [1] - Refining capacity is being optimized, with a shift from oil to chemicals enhancing effective supply; recommended companies include Sinopec, PetroChina, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Hengli Petrochemical [1] Group 3: Demand-Supported Chemical Sectors - Strong pricing power from suppliers is expected to sustain high demand for potash fertilizers; recommended companies include Yara International and Dongfang Iron Tower [2] - Phosphate supply and demand remain tight, benefiting resource-based companies; recommended companies include Batian Shares, Yuntianhua, Xingfa Group, and Chuanheng Shares [2] - Strict quota policies are expected to sustain high demand for refrigerants; recommended companies include Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Yonghe Co. [2] - Amino acids are expected to maintain their upward trend, with overseas capacity gradually exiting; recommended companies include New Hope Liuhe, Andisu, and Meihua Biological Technology [2] - The chlorinated sugar market is anticipated to see anti-involution, with significant potential for allulose; recommended companies include Jinhui Industrial, Bailong Chuangyuan, and Baolingbao Biology [2] - Vitamins are leading the current round of chemical price increases, entering the second phase; recommended companies include New Hope Liuhe and Zhejiang Medicine [2] - The EU's preliminary anti-dumping ruling is expected to reassess the value of overseas tires; recommended companies include Sailun Tire and Senqilin [2] - The civil explosives industry is developing steadily, with policy guidance likely accelerating industry consolidation; recommended companies include Guangdong Hongda, Yipuli, and Jiangnan Chemical [2] Group 4: New Materials and Technologies - Lightweight humanoid robots may benefit from PEEK as a key solution; recommended companies include Zhongyan Shares, Water Shares, and Guoen Shares [3] - AI is driving global demand for computing power, with electronic-grade PPO expected to grow; recommended companies include Shengquan Group and Dongcai Technology [3] - The domestic substitution of core chip materials, particularly photoresists, is accelerating; recommended companies include Wanrun Shares and Dinglong Shares [3]

巴林《每日论坛报》11月21日报道，巴林宣布将于2026年4月13日至15日主 办"世界炼油峰会"（World Refining Summit），本次峰会由巴林石油与环境部 与BAPCO Refining合作举办。该消息由石油与环境部长、气候事务特使 Mohammed bin Mubarak Bin Daina博士在参加欧洲炼化技术大会（ERTC）时 宣布。媒体报道指出，此次大会被视为炼化与石化领域的重要国际活动，吸引 全球专家、行业领导者和专业人士参会，进一步彰显巴林在区域炼油及能源产 业中的枢纽地位。 （原标题：巴林将于2026年主办世界炼油峰会，强化区域能源枢纽地位） ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing drone attacks by Ukraine on Russian energy infrastructure have significantly impacted Russia's refining capacity, leading to a surge in global oil product prices and creating new opportunities for China's oil product exports and sulfur industry [1][4][10]. Group 1: Impact on Russian Refining Capacity - Since November 2025, Ukraine has conducted multiple drone strikes targeting key Russian refineries, including Ryazan, Samara, and Volgograd, resulting in a 6% decrease in overall Russian refining output [1]. - The Ryazan refinery, one of Russia's four major refineries with an annual processing capacity of 13.1 million tons (340,000 barrels per day), suffered damage to its distillation units and fuel storage tanks [1]. - The Volgograd refinery, with an annual capacity of 15.7 million tons, has faced multiple shutdowns due to these attacks, further exacerbating the decline in Russian refining capacity [1]. Group 2: Global Oil Product Price Surge - The reduction in Russian refining capacity has led to a significant increase in overseas oil product crack spreads, with the 3-2-1 crack spread reaching $32.13 per barrel, the highest level since March 2024, reflecting a more than 30% increase from October's average [2]. - Diesel prices have seen the most substantial rise among oil products, indicating a high-profit cycle for the refining industry [2]. Group 3: Sulfur Market Dynamics - The attacks have also disrupted sulfur production, as Russia is the second-largest sulfur producer globally, accounting for 15%-20% of the world's supply [4]. - Domestic sulfur prices have surged, with the port spot index reaching 3,990 yuan per ton in late November, marking an increase of over 1,000 yuan per ton in just over a month and a rise of approximately 2,500 yuan per ton since the beginning of the year [4]. - Forecasts suggest that sulfur prices may exceed 5,000 yuan per ton in 2026 due to a tight supply-demand balance [4]. Group 4: Opportunities for Chinese Companies - The international supply gap has created a favorable window for China's oil product exports, with a total export quota of 40.195 million tons for 2025 [7]. - Major state-owned enterprises dominate China's oil product export market, with Sinopec and PetroChina holding significant shares [7]. - The sulfur industry in China is experiencing a dual benefit of rising prices and increasing demand, particularly due to the growth in the new energy sector and solid-state battery technology [7][8]. Group 5: Market Position of Leading Companies - China's total sulfur production capacity is approximately 16.8 million tons per year, with Sinopec, PetroChina, and Rongsheng Petrochemical being the top three producers, collectively holding over 70% of the market share [8][10]. - A price increase of 100 yuan in sulfur can lead to significant profit gains for leading companies, indicating a positive outlook for profitability in the current high-demand environment [8].

中泰期货成品油周报20251122 ——原油转弱，成品油出口利润维持高位，国内柴油裂解利润回升。 中泰期货股份有限公司 张晓军 从业资格号：F3037698 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0020721 中泰期货 2 0 2 5 年 1 1 月 2 2 日 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 目 录 CONTENTS 03 02 05 04 01 成品油价格解析 成品油供应解析 成品油需求解析 成品油库存解析 市场综述 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 0 成品油综述 | 供应 | ①炼厂开工主营回落，地炼回升，主营炼厂开工率继续回落至76%，山东地炼开工率54%左右，主营开工仍趋于下滑， | | --- | --- | | | 地炼开工预期回升但受配额限制，本周炼厂（恒力、荣盛、盛虹）提前批配额下发，其他炼厂的配额仍未发放，炼厂 | | | 整体供应预计边际回落。 | | | ②地炼柴汽比维持高位，后期仍是以柴油为主。 | | 需求 | ①市场成交:山东地炼汽油产销比周度平均75%，柴油产销率平均为85%。成交以刚需为主，汽油维持平淡，柴油产销冲 | | | 高后再度回归平稳，后期柴油仍会维持偏强，但需求仍偏弱。 | | 库 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced fluctuations on November 21, with the Petrochemical ETF (159731) declining over 3.5%, while only Tongcheng New Material and Sankeshu showed positive performance among its holdings [1] - The Petrochemical ETF has seen net inflows in 8 out of the last 10 trading days, totaling 16.91 million yuan [1] - The chemical sector is witnessing structural opportunities, particularly in the refining segment due to supply-side factors such as attacks on Russian refineries and closures of some refining capacities in Europe and the U.S., leading to high global refining profits [1] Group 2 - Sulfur prices have surged due to strong demand from the new energy and fertilizer sectors, while supply is constrained by slow growth in refining capacity and geopolitical factors [1] - Policies aimed at reducing "involution" are expected to alleviate price competition pressures in the chemical sector, promoting price recovery [1] - According to Shenwan Hongyuan, oil prices are expected to remain in a neutral range by 2026, with refining and polyester sectors likely to see a recovery in profitability due to supply contraction [1] Group 3 - The Petrochemical ETF closely tracks the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, with the basic chemical industry accounting for 60.85% and the oil and petrochemical industry for 32.16% of the index [2] - As the supply and demand in the petrochemical industry continue to improve, the performance of sub-sectors is expected to rise [2]