Report Summary - The report presents the top ten convertible bonds for October 2025, along with an analysis of the issuing companies, including their business profiles, financial performance, and key attractions [13][23][35] Top Ten Convertible Bonds in October 2025 1. Zhongte Convertible Bond - Rating: AAA; 9 - month - end closing price: 112.896 yuan; Conversion premium rate: 85.92%; PE - TTM of the underlying stock: 13.22 [7][13] - Company: A globally leading specialized special - steel material manufacturer with a production capacity of about 20 million tons of special - steel materials per year. It has multiple production and raw - material bases, forming a strategic layout along the coast and rivers [13] - Financials: In 2024, revenue was 109.203 billion yuan (YoY - 4.22%), net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.126 billion yuan (YoY - 10.41%). In H1 2025, revenue was 54.715 billion yuan (YoY - 4.02%), net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.798 billion yuan (YoY + 2.67%) [13] - Key attractions: It is one of the world's most comprehensive special - steel enterprises in terms of variety and specification, with leading cost - control ability and potential for external expansion [14] 2. Shanlu Convertible Bond - Rating: AAA; 9 - month - end closing price: 119.346 yuan; Conversion premium rate: 48.74%; PE - TTM of the underlying stock: 4.08 [7][23] - Company: Mainly engaged in road and bridge construction and maintenance, and also expanding into other fields. It can provide one - stop comprehensive services [23] - Financials: In 2024, revenue was 71.348 billion yuan (YoY - 2.3%), net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.322 billion yuan (YoY + 1.47%). In H1 2025, revenue was 28.575 billion yuan (YoY + 0.26%), net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.029 billion yuan (YoY + 0.89%) [23] - Key attractions: It has the concept of "China - specific valuation", potential for improvement in various aspects under the debt - resolution background, and opportunities from regional infrastructure construction and the Belt and Road Initiative [24] 3. Hebang Convertible Bond - Rating: AA; 9 - month - end closing price: 126.41 yuan; Conversion premium rate: 21.55%; PE - TTM of the underlying stock: - 168.47 [7][35] - Company: With advantages in mineral resources and gas supply, it has completed a basic layout in the chemical, agricultural, and photovoltaic fields [35] - Financials: In 2024, revenue was 8.547 billion yuan (YoY - 3.13%), net profit attributable to shareholders was 31 million yuan (YoY - 97.55%). In H1 2025, revenue was 3.921 billion yuan (YoY - 19.13%), net profit attributable to shareholders was 52 million yuan (YoY - 73.07%) [35] - Key attractions: Its phosphate mines and salt mines have good profit - making potential, and the liquid methionine business is a major profit contributor [36] 4. Aima Convertible Bond - Rating: AA; 9 - month - end closing price: 128.513 yuan; Conversion premium rate: 38.62%; PE - TTM of the underlying stock: 13.41 [7][45] - Company: The leading enterprise in the electric two - wheeled vehicle industry, mainly engaged in R & D, production, and sales of electric two - wheeled vehicles [45] - Financials: In 2024, revenue was 21.606 billion yuan (YoY + 2.71%), net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.988 billion yuan (YoY + 5.68%). In H1 2025, revenue was 13.031 billion yuan (YoY + 23.04%), net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.213 billion yuan (YoY + 27.56%) [45] - Key attractions: It may benefit from government subsidies, new national standards, and potential improvement in gross margin [46] 5. Xingye Convertible Bond - Rating: AAA; 9 - month - end closing price: 120.859 yuan; Conversion premium rate: 29.02%; PE - TTM of the underlying stock: 5.43 [7][54] - Company: One of the first joint - stock commercial banks in China, evolving into a modern financial service group [54] - Financials: In 2024, revenue was 212.226 billion yuan (YoY + 0.66%), net profit attributable to shareholders was 77.205 billion yuan (YoY + 0.12%). In H1 2025, revenue was 110.458 billion yuan (YoY - 2.29%), net profit attributable to shareholders was 43.141 billion yuan (YoY + 0.21%) [54] - Key attractions: It has stable asset quality and scale growth [55] 6. Wentai Convertible Bond - Rating: AA -; 9 - month - end closing price: 128.918 yuan; Conversion premium rate: 20.93%; PE - TTM of the underlying stock: - 23.14 [7][66] - Company: A globally leading semiconductor enterprise adopting the IDM model, providing R & D, manufacturing, and testing services [66] - Financials: In 2024, revenue was 73.598 billion yuan (YoY + 20.23%), net profit attributable to shareholders was - 2.833 billion yuan (YoY - 339.83%). In H1 2025, revenue was 25.341 billion yuan (YoY - 24.56%), net profit attributable to shareholders was 474 million yuan (YoY + 237.36%) [66] - Key attractions: After focusing on the semiconductor business, it benefits from market recovery and has growth potential in the automotive and consumer electronics fields [67] 7. Chongyin Convertible Bond - Rating: AAA; 9 - month - end closing price: 121.778 yuan; Conversion premium rate: 31.87%; PE - TTM of the underlying stock: 5.88 [7][77] - Company: An early local joint - stock commercial bank in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River and Southwest China, with a wide range of business scopes [77] - Financials: In 2024, revenue was 13.679 billion yuan (YoY + 3.54%), net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.117 billion yuan (YoY + 3.8%). In H1 2025, revenue was 7.659 billion yuan (YoY + 7%), net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.19 billion yuan (YoY + 5.39%) [77] - Key attractions: It can benefit from the development of the Chengdu - Chongqing economic circle, has stable asset - scale growth, and effective risk - control strategies [78] 8. Tianye Convertible Bond - Rating: AA +; 9 - month - end closing price: 120.562 yuan; Conversion premium rate: 48.06%; PE - TTM of the underlying stock: 146.42 [7][89] - Company: A leading enterprise in the chlor - alkali chemical industry in Xinjiang, with an integrated circular economy industrial chain [89] - Financials: In 2024, revenue was 11.156 billion yuan (YoY - 2.7%), net profit attributable to shareholders was 68 million yuan (YoY + 108.83%). In H1 2025, revenue was 5.16 billion yuan (YoY - 0.98%), net profit attributable to shareholders was - 9 million yuan (YoY - 228.22%) [89] - Key attractions: It may benefit from the price change of caustic soda and has plans for dividend increase and coal - mine projects [90] 9. Aorui Convertible Bond - Rating: AA -; 9 - month - end closing price: 126.412 yuan; Conversion premium rate: 40.56%; PE - TTM of the underlying stock: 22.72 [7][100] - Company: A company focusing on the R & D, production, and sales of complex APIs and preparations, with leading positions in multiple fields [100] - Financials: In 2024, revenue was 1.476 billion yuan (YoY + 16.89%), net profit attributable to shareholders was 355 million yuan (YoY + 22.59%). In H1 2025, revenue was 822 million yuan (YoY + 12.5%), net profit attributable to shareholders was 235 million yuan (YoY + 24.55%) [100] - Key attractions: It has a growing dealer network, expanding preparation products, and high - quality customer resources [101] 10. Yushui Convertible Bond - Rating: AAA; 9 - month - end closing price: 125.081 yuan; Conversion premium rate: 30.74%; PE - TTM of the underlying stock: 26.93 [7][108] - Company: The largest integrated water supply and drainage enterprise in Chongqing, with a stable monopoly position [108] - Financials: In 2024, revenue was 6.999 billion yuan (YoY - 3.52%), net profit attributable to shareholders was 785 million yuan (YoY - 27.88%). In H1 2025, revenue was 3.519 billion yuan (YoY + 7.16%), net profit attributable to shareholders was 458 million yuan (YoY + 10.06%) [108] - Key attractions: It has a high market share, is expanding business externally, and has effective cost - control measures [109]

Economic Overview - The GDP of Shangzhou District grew by 4.6% in 2024, with a further increase to 6% in the first half of 2025[2] - The contribution of the three industries to GDP in 2024 was 10.4% for the primary sector, 25.1% for the secondary sector, and 64.5% for the tertiary sector[2] - Fixed asset investment increased by 21.8% year-on-year in 2024, while real estate investment saw a significant decline of 21.1%[2] Fiscal Situation - The local general public budget revenue reached 55.746 million yuan in 2024, a growth of 5.84%, but tax revenue fell by 22.9% to 32.765 million yuan[3] - The general budget expenditure rose from 3.302 billion yuan in 2021 to 4.211 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 0.44%[3] - The debt balance increased to 8.345 billion yuan in 2024, representing 43.62% of GDP, which is 15 times the general public budget revenue[3] Industry Development - Shangzhou District is focusing on five key industrial clusters: new materials, green food, health medicine, cultural tourism, and building materials[1] - The new materials industry is prioritized, with a target to develop a high-end edible fungus industry base by 2025, aiming for 100 million bags[18] - The cultural tourism sector received 4.6433 million visitors in the first seven months of 2025, generating a total tourism revenue of 2.948 billion yuan[19] Risks and Recommendations - The district faces risks from national macroeconomic policy changes, economic slowdown, and challenges in industrial transformation[4] - Recommendations include focusing on industrial upgrading, enhancing technological innovation, and improving the investment environment[4]

Group 1: Innovation Qizhi (02121.HK) - The report initiates coverage on Innovation Qizhi, projecting revenues of 1.471 billion, 1.729 billion, and 2.008 billion CNY for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth of 20.4%, 17.5%, and 16.2% respectively [1][7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be -170 million, -127 million, and -61 million CNY for the same period, with adjusted net profit turning positive in 2026 [1][7] - The target market capitalization for 2025 is estimated at 5.642 billion HKD, corresponding to a target price of 10.01 HKD, with a "Buy" rating assigned [1][7] Group 2: Shenzhou Cell (688520.SH) - The company is expected to generate revenues of 2.194 billion, 2.543 billion, and 3.021 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, with a year-on-year decline of 12.7% in 2025, followed by growth of 15.9% and 18.8% in the subsequent years [2][12] - The first half of 2025 saw revenues of 972 million CNY, a decrease of 25.5%, primarily due to regional policy impacts and price reductions in the market [10][11] - The company maintains a "Buy" rating, considering the potential catalysts from its innovative pipeline despite short-term sales pressure [2][12] Group 3: Jiangshan Oupai (603208.SH) - The company reported revenues of 868 million and 466 million CNY for the first half and second quarter of 2025, reflecting declines of 39.82% and 42.9% year-on-year [14][15] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 10 million and 7 million CNY for the same periods, showing significant declines of 90.39% and 91.3% respectively [14][15] - The company is transitioning its business model from heavy asset to light asset and is expected to gradually improve performance as strategic adjustments take effect [16] Group 4: Swine Industry Dynamics - In August 2025, listed pig companies reported an output of 16.6036 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 29.11% and a month-on-month increase of 6.86% [5][18] - The total revenue for listed pig companies in August was 24.859 billion CNY, a decrease of 14.21% year-on-year, while cumulative revenue from January to August reached 205.332 billion CNY, up 11.57% year-on-year [5][19] - The average selling price of pigs in August decreased by 31.03% year-on-year, attributed to an oversupply in the market despite a slight month-on-month increase [20]

Group 1: Employment Data Overview - In August, the U.S. non-farm payrolls added only 22,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 75,000[2] - The unemployment rate rose to a new high of 4.3%, aligning with market expectations, while the labor force participation rate increased to 62.3%[3] - The June employment figure was revised down by 27,000 to a negative growth of -13,000 jobs[3] Group 2: Sector Performance - Employment in cyclical industries decreased by 48,000 jobs, a decline that expanded by 26,000 jobs compared to the previous month[3] - Non-cyclical industries added 24,000 jobs, but this was a decrease of 52,000 jobs compared to June[3] - The education and health services sector saw a slowdown, with only 46,000 jobs added in August compared to 77,000 in July[20] Group 3: Federal Reserve Implications - Following the employment data release, market sentiment shifted from "rate cut trading" to "recession trading"[5] - The probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in September rose to 11%, with expectations for three rate cuts within the year increasing from 2.4 to 2.8 times[5] - The baseline scenario suggests two rate cuts by the end of the year, contingent on the unemployment rate rising to 4.6% or higher[5] Group 4: Market Reactions - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 10 basis points to approximately 4.06% following the data release[5] - The U.S. dollar index depreciated to 97.5, while spot gold prices surged past $3,600 per ounce[5] - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.3%, and the Hang Seng index increased by 1.4% during the week[6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the Hong Kong stock market [4] Core Viewpoints - The overall market has reached new highs, with notable performance in the electronic and pharmaceutical sectors [1] - The Hang Seng Index increased by 1.7%, while the Hang Seng Composite Index rose by 2.3% [1] - Mid-cap stocks outperformed small-cap and large-cap stocks, with a 4.0% increase in the Hang Seng Midcap Index [1] - Among the sector indices, the strongest performers included Defense and Military (+8.8%), Electronics (+8.0%), and Pharmaceuticals (+7.5%) [1] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index's valuation increased by 2.3% to 11.6x, and the Hang Seng Composite Index's valuation rose by 2.5% to 11.9x [2] - The strongest valuation increases were seen in the Hang Seng Biotechnology Index (+6.0% to 27.9x) [2] - 22 sectors saw valuation increases, while 6 sectors experienced declines [2] Earnings Expectations - The Hang Seng Index's EPS (Earnings Per Share) is expected to grow by 0.1%, with the Hang Seng Composite Index also seeing a 0.1% increase [3] - The largest upward revision in EPS was for the Hang Seng Automotive Index (+1.5%), while the Hang Seng Consumer Index saw the largest downward revision (-2.2%) [3] - 19 sectors had upward EPS revisions, while 10 sectors had downward revisions [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index [4]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 859 million yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 42.43%, while the net profit reached 392 million yuan, up 26.65% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 90.68%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points, and the net profit margin was 45.5%, down 5.84 percentage points [1]. - The sales expense ratio increased to 21.05%, up 3.18 percentage points, attributed to higher personnel costs and promotional expenses [1]. - The medical device segment grew by 33.41% year-on-year, generating 708 million yuan in revenue, while the skincare segment saw a significant increase of 152.39%, reaching 121 million yuan [2]. - The company launched the HiveCOL collagen product and received medical device registration in Thailand, enhancing its international market presence [3]. Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of 12.11, 16.28, and 20.54 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 26, 20, and 16 times [4]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.133 billion yuan, 2.790 billion yuan, and 3.503 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 47.84%, 30.79%, and 25.56% [6]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 44.11%, 39.84%, and 35.70% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the Hong Kong stock market [4] Core Viewpoints - The Hong Kong stock market has shown a rebound, with most industries performing well, particularly in the upstream and midstream sectors [1] - The Hang Seng Index increased by 1.4% and the Hang Seng Composite Index rose by 2.0% during the week, with small-cap stocks outperforming mid and large-cap stocks [1] - Among the concept indices, the Hang Seng Automotive and Hang Seng Consumer indices performed strongly, while the Hang Seng Biotechnology and Hang Seng Technology indices lagged [1] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index's valuation increased by 1.9% to 11.4x, while the Hang Seng Composite Index's valuation rose by 2.3% to 11.6x [2] - The Hang Seng Consumer index saw a significant valuation increase of 3.4% to 15.7x, while the Hang Seng Biotechnology index experienced a slight decline of 0.7% to 26.3x [2] - A total of 26 industries saw valuation increases, with notable rises in non-ferrous metals (+11.0%), coal (+7.8%), and steel (+7.6%) [2] Earnings Expectations - The earnings per share (EPS) for the Hang Seng Index was slightly revised up by 0.1%, while the Hang Seng Composite Index's EPS increased by 0.2% [3] - The Hang Seng Biotechnology index had the largest EPS upward revision of 2.8%, while the Hang Seng High Dividend index saw a downward revision of 0.2% [3] - A total of 15 industries had EPS upward revisions, with significant increases in electronics (+2.7%) and comprehensive finance (+2.1%) [3]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the performance and outlook of the **China and Hong Kong equity markets**, specifically focusing on the **MSCI China (MXCN)** and **CSI300** indices, along with sector performances and macroeconomic forecasts. Market & Sector Performance - **MXCN and CSI300** indices experienced a decline of **0.7%** and **0.3%** respectively over the past two weeks in USD terms [7] - **Healthcare** (+3.6%), **Energy** (+2.4%), and **Materials** (+2.1%) sectors led returns, while **Information Technology** (-2.5%) and **Financials** (-2.3%) sectors faced the most losses [8] - The **MSCI China** index has a year-to-date performance of **19.4%**, while **MSCI HK** has performed at **21.3%** [6] Consensus Macro Forecasts - **China's GDP growth** is forecasted at **5.4%** for Q1 2025, declining to **4.0%** by Q4 2025 [11] - **USDCNY** is expected to be **7.19** in Q2 2025, with a slight depreciation forecasted [11] - **Consensus CPI** for China is projected to remain low, with a forecast of **(0.1%)** for Q1 2025 [12] Investment Recommendations - The **MXCN** index target for 2025 is set at **78 HKD**, with a bull case of **80 HKD** and a bear case of **70 HKD** [14] - Recommended sectors for investment include **E-Commerce**, **Materials**, **Insurance**, and **Brokers**, while **Utilities** are advised to be underweight [9] - A barbell strategy is suggested, focusing on high-yield sectors like **Utilities** and growth sectors such as **IT** and **Healthcare** [34] Flows & Positioning - Offshore net inflows into China accelerated, with net inflows over the past six months reaching **US$8.85 billion**, reversing previous outflows [10] - The report indicates a strong demand for **delivery platforms** and **cyclical stocks** due to the "anti-involution" policy [8] Earnings Cycle & Valuation - The earnings cycle is expected to show strong growth, with **JPM's 2025F EPS** estimate at **6.5**, reflecting a **10%** year-on-year growth [14] - Valuation metrics indicate a **P/E ratio** forecast of **12.0** for 2025, suggesting a potential upside in the equity markets [14] Other Important Insights - The **"anti-involution"** policy is expected to benefit sectors like **lithium**, **solar**, and **steel**, as pricing and margins normalize [8] - The **US-China trade negotiations** and potential resolutions are critical factors influencing market performance in the second half of 2025 [9] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring macroeconomic indicators and geopolitical risks, particularly related to the upcoming US elections [34]

Core Insights - On August 6, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.45%, with institutional investors appearing on the trading lists of 27 stocks, net buying 12 and net selling 15 [1][2]. Institutional Trading Summary - The stock with the highest net buying by institutional seats was Tongling Nonferrous Metals, which closed at the daily limit with a trading volume of 3.228 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 7.75%. The net buying amounted to 100.6006 million yuan, with significant inflows of 528 million yuan [2][5]. - Chengyi Pharmaceutical saw a 5.41% increase in its stock price, with a turnover rate of 29.52% and a trading volume of 1.527 billion yuan. Institutional net buying reached 88.3878 million yuan, but there was a net outflow of 71.0885 million yuan [2][5]. - Juguang Technology experienced a 16.21% increase, with a turnover rate of 12.45% and a trading volume of 1.088 billion yuan. Institutional net buying was 75.2953 million yuan, with a net inflow of 18.3043 million yuan [3][5]. Performance of Net Bought Stocks - The average increase for stocks with institutional net buying was 12.37%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index. Notable performers included Guorui Technology and Beifang Changlong, both closing at the daily limit [3][4]. - Among the stocks with institutional net buying, three had released half-year performance forecasts, with two expecting profit increases. Chengfei Integration had the highest expected net profit growth of 49.24% [3][4]. Institutional Selling Summary - The stock with the highest net selling by institutions was Western Materials, which saw a 10.69% decline, with a net selling amount of 106.8234 million yuan and a total outflow of 1.8 billion yuan [4][6]. - New Henghui had a turnover rate of 42.89% and a net selling of 93.3909 million yuan, with a total outflow of 1.86 billion yuan [4][6]. - Wanlima also had a high turnover rate of 45.88%, with a net selling of 71.2137 million yuan and a slight net inflow of 346.38 thousand yuan [4][6]. Deep and Shanghai Stock Connect Activity - On August 6, 15 stocks on the trading list had participation from the Shenzhen and Shanghai Stock Connect, with net buying in stocks like Chengfei Integration and Dongfang Precision, totaling 153 million yuan and 151 million yuan respectively [7][8]. - The stocks with the highest net buying from the Stock Connect included Chengfei Integration (15.295 million yuan), Dongfang Precision (15.130 million yuan), and Juguang Technology (5.716 million yuan) [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report indicates an "Overweight" rating for the industry, suggesting a positive outlook for the next six months [31]. Core Insights - The report highlights a total of 79 merger and acquisition (M&A) events during the period from July 28 to August 3, with 14 classified as significant M&A transactions. Out of these, 15 M&A events were completed, while no significant M&A transactions were finalized [10]. - Recent policy updates emphasize that government investment funds should not engage in public trading of stocks, except for M&A, directed placements, and strategic allocations. This aims to prevent the increase of local government hidden debts [7][8]. - The report notes that the restructuring index outperformed the Wind All A index by 1.07% during the specified period, indicating a strong performance in the restructuring sector [25]. Summary by Sections M&A Activity Overview - During the week of July 28 to August 3, there were 79 M&A events involving listed companies, with 2 failures. The significant M&A events included 14 transactions, with 15 completed [10][16]. Major M&A Updates - The report lists several major M&A transactions involving state-owned enterprises and private companies, with notable transactions including China Shipbuilding's acquisition of China Heavy Industry for approximately 11.52 billion CNY [14]. Control Changes - Four listed companies reported changes in actual control, with notable transitions including Renfu Pharmaceutical being taken over by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [19]. Market Performance - The restructuring index showed a positive trend, outperforming the broader market index, which reflects a favorable environment for M&A activities [25].