量化大势研判 202603 3 月核心推荐预期成长风格 glmszqdatemark 执业证书： S0590525110059 邮箱： yeerle@glms.com.cn 相关研究 2026 年 03 月 04 日 [Table_Author] 分析师 叶尔乐 为了解决风格系统化轮动难题，我们开启了自下而上的量化大势研判探究。所谓 风格是资产本身的内在属性，内嵌于其产业生命周期的变化中，存在五种风格阶 段：外延成长、质量成长、质量红利、价值红利、破产价值。全局比较下来的优 势资产其特征属性，即为未来市场的主流风格。可通过 g>ROE>D 的基本优先级 进行考察，分析"有没有（好资产）"和"（好资产）贵不贵"进行优势资产的比 较判断，最后聚焦当下最具有优势的细分板块。 预期增速资产优势差继续回升，实际增速资产优势差变化不大，继续核心推荐预 期成长风格，景气类成长有待财报验证。△gf 继续保持扩张，其主要来自 Top 组 的上升，高预期增速板块依然有表现机会；△g 同样扩张但变化不大，景气类策略 虽缺乏基本面动量优势，看后续财报披露下是否会再次开启上升趋势。 ROE 的优势差回升但幅度走弱，拥挤度较低下，可挑选 ...

受中东紧张局势持续升级影响，3月3日，亚太市场主要股指集体飘绿，A股、港股主要指数全线走弱，日韩股市重挫，黄金白银直线跳 水，原油大涨。 截至收盘，沪指跌超1%，创业板指跌超2%，深成指下挫逾3%，科创综指跌超5％。全市场超4800只个股下跌。沪深两市成交额突破3万 亿，较上一日此时放量超1100亿。 盘面上，军工、有色金属、计算机、传媒、电子、化工板块跌幅明显，商业航天、算力硬件、半导体、AI应用题材深度回调。 航天军工股领跌，航发控制（000738）、航发科技（600391）、振芯科技（300101）等多股跌停，航亚科技跌超15%，电科蓝天、纵横 股份等多股跌超10%。 稀土板块重挫，北方稀土（600111）、包钢股份（600010）等多股触及跌停；半导体产业链走低，普冉股份、东微半导等10余股跌超 10%。 油气、航运概念延续强势，三桶油等30余股涨停。其中"中国石化股价创2008年3月以来新高；国航远洋30CM涨停，中远海能 （600026）、招商南油（601975）、宁波海运（600798）、宁波远洋（601022）涨停，招商轮船（601872）走出8天5板，续创历史新 高。港股石油股同步走强，山东 ...

记者丨曾静娇 编辑丨江佩霞 受中东紧张局势持续升级影响，3月3日，亚太市场主要股指集体飘绿，A股、港股主要指数全线走弱，日韩股市重挫，黄金白 银直线跳水，原油大涨。 截至收盘， 沪指跌超1%， 创业板指跌超2%， 深成指下挫逾3%， 科创综指跌超5％。全市场超 4800只个股下跌。 沪深两市成 交额突破3万亿，较上一日此时放量超1100亿。 | 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 科创综指 | | --- | --- | --- | | 4122.68 -59.91 -1.43% -443.40 -3.07% -98.37 -5.38% | 14022.39 | 1729.17 | | 万得全A | 创业板指 | 北证50 | | 6709.23 | 3209.48 | 1415.15 | | -205.49 -2.97% -84.68 -2.57% -60.59 -4.11% | | | | 沪深300 | 中证500 | 中证A500 | | 4655.90 | 8281.61 | 5840.58 | | -72.77 -1.54% -376.72 -4.35% -144.17 -2.41% | | | | 中证 ...

【国泰海通军工】航天电子：增资航天火箭公司，积极融入商业航天新格局 2）经过近二十年发展，航天火箭公司在地面测运控、数据链组网和空间信息网络等专业领域攻克了多项关键技术 并具有一定的行业领先地位。 增资航天火箭公司，积极融入商业航天发展新格局。 【国泰海通军工】航天电子：增资航天火箭公司，积极融入商业航天新格局 为进一步提升公司控股子公司航天长征火箭技术有限公司（下称"航天火箭公司"）综合能力建设，解决关键技术 攻关研发资金需求并理顺母子公司财务关系，公司拟以现金方式对航天火箭公司增资72，750万元（其中12，750 万元为公司2017年再融资项目"天地一体化测控通信系统及产品应用项目"投入的募集资金 匹配航天市场旺盛需求，推动关键技术研发攻关。 1）航天火箭公司的航天电子信息业务主要为测控系统、空间网络信息系统等领域，涉及地面测控设备、数据链、 激光终端等产品种类。 预计"十五五"期间航天火箭公司产品在航天相关产业领域持续保持旺盛需求，本次增资部分资金将用于提升航天 火箭公司航天电子信息相关业务的批产能力。 增资航天火箭公司，积极融入商业航天发展新格局。 为进一步提升公司控股子公司航天长征火箭技术有限公司 ...

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 25 Feb 2026 国泰海通香江策论 Global Macro Strategy 美伊战云投射国际秩序重构，战略资源迎来反转式价值重估——事件点评 U.S.-Iran Conflict Signal a Reshaping of the Global Order, Driving a Revaluation of Strategic Resources — Event Comment • 进入 2 月后，在阿曼斡旋下，美伊在高压对峙背景下展开间接谈判，分别于 2 月 6 日和 2 月 17 日进行两轮会谈， 并计划于 2 月 26 日在日内瓦举行第三轮谈判。 点评：中东地缘政治的影响或将进入短期极值，但是，百年未有之大变局、国际秩序的重构则更加深入人心，黄 金、航天军工、有色甚至原油等战略资源的价值重估将是大势所趋。 张忆东 Yidong Zhang 周林泓 Amber Zhou yd.zhang@htisec.com amber.lh.zhou@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Foc ...

经济观察网德事隆(TXT.N)股价在2026年2月23日下跌2.55%，收于98.20美元，主要受以下因素影响： 行业政策现状 特朗普政府于2月20日宣布依据《1974年贸易法》第122条加征全球进口关税(10%税率2月24日生效)，并 威胁提升至15%。工业制造企业面临供应链成本上升风险，市场对德事隆等出口导向型公司盈利前景产 生担忧。 股价情况 股价当日振幅3.09%，最低触及97.55美元，跌破100美元心理关口。5日内涨幅仅0.11%，短期均线支撑 减弱，部分技术性卖盘加剧下跌。 以上内容基于公开资料整理，不构成投资建议。 板块变化情况 当日美股三大指数均下跌，道琼斯指数跌幅1.39%，纳斯达克指数跌幅1.13%。航天军工板块整体下跌 1.07%，市场避险情绪升温，资金从工业股流出。 公司基本面 估值压力：截至2月23日，公司市盈率(TTM)为19.22倍，高于部分工业同行，近期股价年内累计上涨 12.65%后存在获利回吐压力。 成交清淡：当日成交额仅2921万美元，量比0.52显示交投活跃度偏低，放大了个股波动。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent escalation of geopolitical tensions is likely to catalyze demand in the defense sector, particularly for Northrop Grumman's products and services [1] Group 1: Geopolitical Context - Military experts indicate that the U.S. may consider military action against Iran, which could enhance defense demand [1] - Northrop Grumman is increasing production of the B-21 bomber to meet rising order volumes, reflecting strong market interest [1] - Ongoing geopolitical risks, including recent interceptions of Russian military aircraft by North American Aerospace Defense Command, may sustain expectations for increased defense spending [1] Group 2: Analyst Ratings - Citigroup analysts maintain a "Buy" rating for Northrop Grumman with a target price of $781, based on positive assessments of the company's fundamentals and industry outlook [1] Group 3: Financial Performance - Northrop Grumman's Q4 2025 revenue reached $11.712 billion, a year-over-year increase of 9.60%, with diluted earnings per share at $9.96, up 15.14% from the previous year, exceeding market expectations [1] - The company's total revenue for the year was $41.954 billion, with a net profit of $4.182 billion, driven by surging demand for military equipment and progress on projects like the B-21 [1] Group 4: Stock Performance - Northrop Grumman's stock closed at $695.06 on February 12, 2026, with a single-day increase of 2.39%, while the aerospace and defense sector saw a slight rise of 0.62%, indicating heightened investor interest in defensive stocks [2]

Group 1 - The stock price of Gaohua Technology (stock code: 688539) has shown significant movement due to a major shareholder, Huang Biao, planning to reduce holdings by up to 1.8 million shares, accounting for 0.97% of the total share capital, from March 6, 2026, to June 5, 2026, due to personal funding needs [1] - For the first nine months of 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 273 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.31%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 51.99 million yuan, up 14.97% year-on-year. However, the company expects a decline of 38.19% in net profit for the full year of 2024, primarily due to increased R&D investment and rising impairment losses [2] - On February 11, 2026, the stock price increased by 2.03% to 47.84 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 77.56 million yuan and a net inflow of main funds amounting to 815,300 yuan; over the past 60 days, the stock price has cumulatively risen by 32.30% [3] Group 2 - The company's business involves commercial aerospace, military information technology, and low-altitude economy, which are hot sectors that may continue to attract market attention due to satellite internet policies and expanding downstream demand [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the stock price of Textron (TXT.N) has shown a fluctuating upward trend over the past week, with a cumulative increase of 2.85% and a volatility of 6.75% [1] - The stock closed at $95.47 on February 9, increased to $95.87 on February 10, reached $97.28 on February 11, peaked at $98.75 on February 12, and then adjusted to $98.16 on February 13 [1] - The trading volume during this period was approximately $877 million, with a low turnover rate of about 1% daily, influenced mainly by market sentiment and the overall performance of the aerospace and defense sector [1] Group 2 - In February 2026, 20 institutions provided insights on Textron, with 35% recommending buy or hold ratings and 65% suggesting hold ratings, resulting in an average target price of $97.86, slightly below the current stock price [2] - Earnings forecasts indicate that the expected earnings per share for Q4 2025 is $1.697, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 29.10%, while Q1 2026 revenue is projected to be $3.494 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 7.62% [2] - These forecasts reflect the market's expectations for stable growth in Textron's performance [2]

Stock Performance - Beta Technologies (BETA.N) stock price dropped by 3.42% on February 13, 2026, closing at $17.22, primarily due to a collective decline in major U.S. stock indices, with the Nasdaq index falling by 0.44% [1] - The stock experienced a significant increase of 15.62% to $19.39 on February 11, following the news that Amazon disclosed a 5.3% stake in the company, but subsequently corrected by 11.18% over the next two trading days as some investors took profits [2] Financial Performance - The company's Q3 2025 financial report indicated a year-over-year revenue growth of 190.87%, reaching $8.9 million, but it reported a net profit margin of -4902.60%, with net losses widening to $437 million, raising concerns about its profitability [3] Market Activity - On the day of the stock price drop, the trading volume was only $14.97 million, with a volume ratio of 0.40, indicating low trading activity. Although the aerospace and defense sector rose by 1.16%, funds appeared to be flowing towards stocks with higher earnings certainty [4] Valuation - The stock price fell below the February 10 low of $16.40, reaching a minimum of $17.14, with short-term moving averages indicating a bearish trend. Year-to-date, the stock has declined by 38.96%, maintaining a weak market position [5]