策略专题研究 国联民生研究：2026 年 1 月金股推荐 glmszqdatemark 2026 年 1 月策略观点 市场在震荡过程中，波动率逐步下降，或重新具备进一步突破前高的条件。短期 内，一方面市场接近前高，并且恰逢岁末年初，部分投资者可能会面临了结盈利 的需求，另一方面 12 月以来国内 ETF 市场获得大量增量资金，规模持续上升， 但后续有一定的赎回压力，市场在 1 月上旬可能面临波动加大的风险。中期看， 市场仍处于上行趋势中，并且春季行情即将来临。在当前市场环境下，市场整体 盈利增速逐步复苏但缺乏弹性，市场仍会更加关注各类主题资产和宏大叙事下的 投资机会，因而我们认为在 1 月中下旬可以开始逐步布局各类主题投资机会。 2026 年 1 月金股组合： 2025 年 12 月 31 日 [Table_Author] 分析师 邓宇林 | 执业证书： S0590523100008 | | --- | | 邮箱： yldeng@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 肖辉煌 | | 执业证书： S0590525080003 | | 邮箱： xiaohh@glms.com.cn | 相关研究 本公司具备证券投 ...

报告由中国上市公司协会与责扬天下联合发布，聚焦 ESG 价值货币化核算，系统分析 2024 年 A 股及港股上市公司 ESG 表现，探索核算体系在投资与企业 运营中的应用，为可持续发展提供数据支撑与实践指引。 报告背景方面，国内外 ESG 核算标准持续完善。国际上，多元资本联盟与 IFVI 战略合并，计划构建全球统一价值核算因子数据库，ISSB 拟修订相关准 则；国内启动《企业可持续价值核算指南》国家标准制定，推动核算进入标准化阶段。上市公司 ESG 信息披露成效显著，2024 年报告发布率达 54.66%，环 境与社会类关键指标披露率逐年上升，二氧化碳排放数据质量 A 级企业数量较 2022 年增长超 50%。 2024 年核算结果呈现三大特征。ESG 净价值方面，2373 家公司实现正向净影响，同比增长 934 家，银行业、计算机行业正向占比领先。环境维度，排放强 度与资源使用强度稳中有降，交通运输、建筑材料等行业碳排放强度下降，有色金属、石油石化行业水资源使用效率提升；社会维度，3460 家公司创造正 向社会价值，纳税强度、员工培训投入等成为核心贡献领域，共同富裕净值同比增长超 20%。ESG 风险机遇 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights that the computer industry is experiencing a significant shift with a focus on three key areas: large models, computing power, and applications, indicating a competitive convergence and accelerated iteration [3][9] - Institutional holdings in the computer sector are at a historical low of 2.4% as of September 30, 2025, suggesting potential for growth in valuations [3][9] - The report anticipates a robust growth trajectory for the computer sector in 2025, characterized by a Q1 peak followed by steady growth [3][9] Summary by Sections Holdings and Valuation - Institutional holdings in the computer industry are at a historical low of 2.4%, indicating room for valuation expansion [3][9] - The PS/PCF valuation metrics suggest that there is still space for growth in the sector [3][9] Fundamental Analysis - A performance inflection point has been observed, with significant profit elasticity and the gradual formation of AI application catalysts [3][9] - The report identifies three major focus areas for 2026: large models, computing power, and applications, all of which are undergoing significant changes [3][9] Model Development - The gap between Chinese and American large models is narrowing, with expectations for further reduction and potential surpassing in certain areas by 2026 [3][9] - Future developments to watch include breakthroughs in long-context limitations, multi-modal and world models, and innovative training methods [3][9] Computing Infrastructure - The report discusses advancements in chip technology, supernodes, and AI infrastructure, indicating a multi-dimensional iteration that is closing the loop between computing power, models, and applications [3][9] - The evolution of chips from merely usable to highly efficient is highlighted, along with improvements in system efficiency through engineering innovations [3][9] AI Software - The software industry is entering an optimal layout window as large model values are being validated across multiple fields [4][9] - A significant number of companies are seeing AI revenue contributions exceeding 10%, marking a technological revolution in the software sector [4][9] - Promising areas for investment include Deep Research, AI programming, multi-modal applications, industry agents, and AI solutions for marketing, office, and finance [4][9]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.81% to close at 3939.81 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index dropping by 0.92% to 13080.49 points. The ChiNext Index decreased by 1.16% to 3069.22 points. Overall, there were 1274 stocks that rose while 4103 stocks fell, with a total trading volume of 19261 billion yuan, an increase of 153 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1][10]. Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the media, computer, and electronics sectors showed positive performance with increases of 1.60%, 0.93%, and 0.12% respectively. Conversely, the coal, electric equipment, steel, non-ferrous metals, and basic chemicals sectors faced declines, with decreases of 3.17%, 2.97%, 2.85%, 2.80%, and 2.67% respectively [1][10]. Concept Sector Performance - The concept sectors that performed well today included Pinduoduo partners, Xiaohongshu platform, WEB3.0, Kimi, Douyin Doubao, multimodal models, internet celebrity economy, operating systems, virtual humans, intelligent entities, ChatGPT, AIGC, medical payment reform, live streaming sales, and Chinese corpus. In contrast, the lithium battery positive electrode, lithium battery negative electrode, and lithium iron phosphate battery sectors experienced a pullback [2][12].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.07% on November 12, with 11 industries experiencing gains, led by household appliances and the comprehensive sector, which rose by 1.22% and 1.05% respectively [1] - The sectors with the largest declines were power equipment and machinery, which fell by 2.10% and 1.23% respectively [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The main capital flow showed a net outflow of 58.897 billion yuan across both markets, with five industries seeing net inflows [1] - The pharmaceutical and biological industry had the highest net inflow, amounting to 2.402 billion yuan, with a daily increase of 0.61% [1] - The banking sector also saw a net inflow of 1.810 billion yuan, with a daily increase of 0.50% [1] - A total of 26 industries experienced net outflows, with the power equipment sector leading at a net outflow of 17.743 billion yuan, followed by the computer sector with 6.711 billion yuan [1] Comprehensive Sector Performance - The comprehensive sector increased by 1.05%, with a total net inflow of 290 million yuan, comprising 16 stocks, of which 9 rose and 3 hit the daily limit [2] - The top stocks in terms of net inflow within the comprehensive sector included Yuegui Co. with 241 million yuan, followed by Nanjing New Hundred with 176 million yuan, and Sanmu Group with 1.984 million yuan [2] - The stocks with the largest net outflows included Zhangzhou Development, Dongyangguang, and Yatai Group, with outflows of 55.289 million yuan, 43.914 million yuan, and 31.299 million yuan respectively [2]

Core Insights - The overall performance of listed companies in China has shown continuous improvement, with significant contributions from the technology sector, indicating a structural upgrade in the industry [1][2][3] Group 1: Economic Performance - China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a steady economic development [1] - Total revenue of listed companies reached 53.46 trillion yuan, with a net profit of 4.70 trillion yuan, marking year-on-year growth of 1.36% and 5.50% respectively [2] - In the third quarter, revenue and net profit increased by 3.82% and 11.45% year-on-year, with quarter-on-quarter growth of 2.40% and 14.12%, indicating a significant improvement in growth rates compared to the first half of the year [2][3] Group 2: Corporate Actions - A total of 1,033 listed companies announced cash dividend plans, with a total cash dividend amounting to 734.9 billion yuan, and 89 companies distributing over 1 billion yuan in dividends [2] - 1,195 companies issued 1,525 share repurchase plans, with 899 completed, totaling 92.3 billion yuan in repurchases [2][6] Group 3: Sector Performance - The electronic industry has surpassed the banking sector in market capitalization, accounting for 12.42% of the total market value, which is an increase of nearly 3 percentage points since the beginning of the year [6] - In the first three quarters, 17 out of 19 industry sectors reported profits, with significant growth in advanced manufacturing and technology sectors, particularly in AI data storage and new energy vehicles [6][7] - The film and gaming industries saw revenue growth of 9.31% and 24.40% respectively, while the precious metals sector experienced a revenue increase of 22.36% and a net profit growth of 55.96% [7] Group 4: Future Outlook - The overall growth of listed companies' performance is expected to strengthen, particularly in the fourth quarter, driven by consumer demand and industry upgrades [4] - The capital market reforms are anticipated to enhance the adaptability and inclusiveness of the market, promoting high-quality development among listed companies [3]

Core Insights - The implementation of large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods replacement policies has significantly boosted equipment investment and consumption growth in China [1][3] Group 1: Industrial Equipment Update - Industrial enterprises have shown a positive trend in equipment updates, with machinery procurement amount increasing by 9.4% year-on-year in the first three quarters of this year [1] - High-tech manufacturing maintained strong growth, with machinery procurement increasing by 14% [1] - The electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry saw a 10.5% increase in machinery procurement, with thermal pipeline renovation accelerating, leading to a 16.4% increase in machinery procurement in this sector [1] Group 2: Information and Technology Sector - The information and technology sectors have increased their investment in equipment updates, with machinery procurement in information transmission, software, and IT services growing by 26.8%, and scientific research and technical services by 32.5% [2] Group 3: Digital Equipment Procurement - National enterprises have shown strong motivation for digital equipment updates, with procurement amount increasing by 18.6% year-on-year [2] - High-end manufacturing sectors, such as shipbuilding and computer industries, have accelerated digital investments, with procurement increasing by 17.3% and 22.7% respectively [2] Group 4: Private Enterprises' Role - Private enterprises have played a significant role in equipment updates, with machinery procurement increasing by 13% year-on-year, surpassing state-owned and foreign enterprises [2] - Innovative sectors within the private economy, such as the internet and smart unmanned aerial vehicles, have shown high momentum, with machinery procurement increasing by 32.8% and 70.5% respectively [2] Group 5: Consumer Goods Demand - The retail sales of home appliances and furniture have seen substantial growth, with sales of daily appliances like refrigerators increasing by 48.3% and home audio-visual equipment by 26.8% [2] - The retail sales of furniture and lighting increased by 33.2% and 17.2% respectively, with smart home products like robotic vacuum cleaners experiencing a remarkable 75% growth [2] - The retail sales of newly included communication devices, such as mobile phones, increased by 19.9% [2] Group 6: New Energy Vehicle Sales - The sales of new energy vehicles have continued to grow, with a year-on-year increase of 30.1%, reflecting the vitality of China's new energy vehicle industry [3] - The implementation of the vehicle replacement policy has effectively stimulated automotive consumption potential [3] Group 7: Policy Impact - The "Two New" policies have played a crucial role in stabilizing investment, expanding consumption, promoting transformation, and benefiting people's livelihoods [3] - The tax data indicates that the equipment update policies have effectively promoted the production and application of advanced equipment, enhancing the proportion of advanced capacity [3] - The tax authorities will continue to support the "Two New" policies to further unleash domestic demand potential and assist in high-quality development [3]

Core Insights - The latest data from the National Taxation Administration indicates a significant acceleration in equipment updates and a boost in the "old for new" consumption policy, leading to increased procurement amounts by enterprises in the first three quarters of the year [1] Group 1: Equipment Procurement Growth - In the first three quarters, the amount of machinery and equipment purchased by industrial enterprises increased by 9.4% year-on-year [1] - High-tech manufacturing maintained a strong growth momentum, with machinery and equipment procurement rising by 14% year-on-year [1] - The electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industries saw a 10.5% year-on-year increase in machinery and equipment procurement [1] Group 2: Investment in Information and Technology - The information transmission, software, and information technology services sector experienced a 26.8% year-on-year increase in machinery and equipment procurement [1] - The scientific research and technical services sector saw a 32.5% year-on-year increase in machinery and equipment procurement, reflecting a heightened investment in new productivity areas [1] Group 3: Digital Equipment Procurement - Nationally, the procurement amount for digital equipment by enterprises grew by 18.6% year-on-year, indicating that digital transformation is becoming a crucial development direction for enterprises [1] - High-end manufacturing sectors are accelerating their digital investments to enhance competitiveness, with shipbuilding and computer industries seeing year-on-year increases of 17.3% and 22.7% in digital equipment procurement, respectively [1] Group 4: Role of Private Enterprises - The role of private enterprises in equipment updates has become more prominent, with machinery and equipment procurement by private enterprises increasing by 13% year-on-year, surpassing state-owned and foreign enterprises [1] - Innovative sectors within the private economy are maintaining high momentum, with procurement amounts for machinery and equipment in the internet and intelligent unmanned aerial vehicle sectors increasing by 32.8% and 70.5% year-on-year, respectively [1]

Core Insights - Shenzhen Stock Exchange companies reported significant growth in both revenue and net profit in the first half of the year, highlighting the capital market's role in supporting the real economy and fostering new productive forces [1] Revenue and Profit Growth - In the first half of the year, Shenzhen companies achieved a total revenue of 10.24 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.64%, with Q2 revenue reaching 5.36 trillion yuan, reflecting a substantial quarter-on-quarter growth of 9.78% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 595.46 billion yuan, marking an 8.88% year-on-year increase, with nearly 80% of companies reporting profits and over 50% experiencing profit growth [1] Strategic Emerging Industries - Companies in strategic emerging industries showed remarkable performance, with 842 firms generating a total revenue of 1.49 trillion yuan, averaging 176.7 million yuan per company, and a year-on-year growth of 14.73% [1] - The new generation information technology sector saw a revenue increase of 20.41%, while the new energy vehicle industry experienced a net profit growth of 34.37% [1] International Expansion - Strategic emerging industry companies achieved overseas revenue of 434.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.59%, with international business accounting for 29.22% of total revenue, up 3.61 percentage points [2] - Key sectors such as electronics, power equipment, computers, and automotive displayed strong resilience and growth, with 253 electronic companies generating 984.76 billion yuan in revenue, a 14.1% increase, and 222 computer companies achieving 501.25 billion yuan, a 13.74% increase [2] R&D Investment - Shenzhen companies increased R&D investment to a total of 352.97 billion yuan in the first half of the year, with several firms, including BYD and ZTE, spending over 5 billion yuan on R&D [3] - The focus on technology innovation as a core competitive advantage is evident, with 386 companies announcing mid-term dividend plans, resulting in a total dividend payout of 88.61 billion yuan, a 49.51% increase year-on-year [3] Shareholder Returns - The trend of enhancing shareholder returns is growing, with a significant increase in both dividend payouts and share buyback plans, totaling 230 buyback announcements with a maximum planned amount of 68.21 billion yuan [3]

Core Insights - The electronic industry saw the highest net inflow of funds today, amounting to 5.522 billion, with a price change of 2.32% and a turnover rate of 5.01% [1] - The computer industry experienced the largest net outflow of funds, totaling -9.675 billion, with a price change of 0.58% and a turnover rate of 6.20% [2] Industry Summary - **Electronic**: - Trading volume: 1.3921 billion shares - Change in trading volume: +8.46% - Net inflow: 5.522 billion [1] - **Food and Beverage**: - Trading volume: 0.2739 billion shares - Change in trading volume: +28.05% - Net inflow: 2.494 billion [1] - **Communication**: - Trading volume: 0.4664 billion shares - Change in trading volume: -7.25% - Net inflow: 1.861 billion [1] - **Automobile**: - Trading volume: 0.7724 billion shares - Change in trading volume: -2.20% - Net inflow: 1.429 billion [1] - **Banking**: - Trading volume: 0.4150 billion shares - Change in trading volume: +9.87% - Net inflow: 1.087 billion [1] - **Computer**: - Trading volume: 0.11069 billion shares - Change in trading volume: -13.12% - Net outflow: -9.675 billion [2] - **Pharmaceuticals and Biology**: - Trading volume: 0.8615 billion shares - Change in trading volume: -16.14% - Net outflow: -8.096 billion [2]