行 业 及 产 业 交通运输 2026 年 01 月 13 日 油运 Q4Q1 业绩有望高增，航空有 望迎来黄金时代 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 罗石 A0230524080012 luoshi@swsresearch.com 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 王晨鉴 A0230525030001 wangcj@swsresearch.com 王易 A0230525050001 wangyi@swsresearch.com 张慧 A0230524100001 zhanghui@swsresearch.com 王凯婕 A0230525110001 wangkj@swsresearch.com 研究支持 郑逸欢 A0230526010001 zhengyh@swsresearch.com 联系人 范晨轩 A0230525070003 fancx@swsresearch.com 看好 ——交运行业 2025Q4 业绩前瞻 本期投资提示 ...

招商证券发布研报称，2025年快递需求增长超预期，反内卷推动价格触底回升。行业估值总体处于低 位，看好行业有序竞争、总体竞争强度趋于缓和、格局逐步优化、盈利中枢提升。头部公司兼具经营确 定性高、现金流稳定、资产负债率低等优势，具有准红利属性;关注行业中尾部公司在较低的盈利基数 上，经营及管理优化，有望实现更高的盈利弹性。 2)反内卷政策推动行业价格触底回升、同比跌幅收窄。2025上半年由于主要公司份额诉求较强、行业竞 争加剧，行业价格跌幅较大，其中Q1-Q2行业均价同比分别下跌8.8%、6.8%，Q3w以来反内卷政策推动 行业价格跌幅收窄，Q3平均价格同比跌幅收窄至5.8%，环比回升0.5%，Q4以来10-11月单价同比下降 5.8%，环比提升1.7%。 3)公司维度，顺丰及圆通市占率提升。2025年年初以来，顺丰受益于激活经营、业务量快速增长，市占 率同比提升较快，Q3市占率同比提升1.3%;圆通由于较积极的价格策略，市占率总体处于提升状态，Q3 同比提升0.2%。 快递板块投资策略：行业估值总体处于低位，看好行业有序竞争、总体竞争强度趋于缓和、格局逐步优 化、盈利中枢提升 1)需求端，有望持续受益电商市场 ...

Core Viewpoint - A leading freight forwarding company in Shanghai is facing operational risks due to fluctuations in forward freight costs while expanding its direct customer market. Guotai Junan Futures has developed a tailored hedging solution to mitigate the risk of rising costs by purchasing the EC2512 contract, effectively locking in stable profits for the company [1][4]. Group 1: Industry Common Issues - Fluctuations in freight rates pose significant operational risks across the shipping market, impacting freight forwarders and shippers who face cost pressures from rising rates. Freight forwarders need to hedge against rising costs by purchasing shipping futures, while shipping companies and primary freight forwarders must guard against falling rates by selling futures contracts to lock in profits [2]. - Middle-tier freight forwarding companies often lack effective risk management tools due to insufficient contractual spirit in certain segments, leaving them exposed to unhedged risks [2]. Group 2: Company Background and Needs - The Shanghai-based freight forwarding company is a comprehensive enterprise with a global network. In 2025, the company aims to expand its direct customer market by participating in a tender for European export routes for home appliance companies, needing to quote a fixed price of $1,800/FEU while facing the risk of rising upstream freight costs [3]. Group 3: Service Solution and Implementation - The hedging strategy was designed based on fundamental research, considering geopolitical factors, European economic recovery, and shipping capacity control. Guotai Junan Futures recommended the company to buy shipping futures to hedge against future increases in spot freight costs [4]. - The company won a bid for 64 FEU (32 FEU each for November and December), locking in revenue at $1,800/FEU. To hedge against cost risks, Guotai Junan Futures advised purchasing 16 EC2512 contracts at a price of 1,000 points, corresponding to a freight rate of $1,500/FEU, effectively locking in future costs [6][8]. Group 4: Project Outcomes and Future Cooperation - The hedging strategy allowed the company to manage freight rate risks efficiently at a lower cost, achieving a risk-free profit of $300/FEU by locking in costs at $1,500/FEU while securing $1,800/FEU in revenue. The outcome was well-received by the company [8]. - Following the successful initial collaboration, the company engaged Guotai Junan Futures again in May 2025 for a new round of hedging for December tenders, completing the hedging of 60 FEU within a week, demonstrating improved cooperation efficiency and increased customer satisfaction [9]. Group 5: Industry Promotion and Innovation - Beyond traditional shipping companies and freight forwarders, other groups such as booking platforms and cross-border e-commerce businesses show potential for participating in the shipping derivatives market. These entities can integrate derivatives into their services, indirectly benefiting small and medium-sized freight forwarders [11]. - The "insurance + futures" model combines freight rate risk management with existing shipping insurance products, lowering industry entry barriers and enhancing overall risk coverage capabilities. This approach may be particularly appealing to cross-border e-commerce businesses facing intense competition and seeking to expand their operational space [13].

深耕伊朗物流领域多年的实践积累，见证了中伊贸易的蓬勃发展，也清晰洞察到企业开拓伊朗市场时面 临的各类物流挑战。选择专业的伊朗货代专线公司，既能高效解决运输难题，更能为企业显著节省时间 与成本，成为开拓伊朗市场的重要助力。 特别值得一提的是，专业公司还提供"物流+金融"的延伸服务。比如代垫关税服务，客户只需凭提单质 押即可获得垫资;还有里亚尔/人民币双币结算服务，有效解决非美元结算难题。这些服务对中小企业来 说尤为重要，能够大大缓解资金压力。 高效时效保障，提升供应链效率 时效是衡量物流服务质量的重要指标。伊朗空运专线可以实现"1天到港、2天内清关、2天到门"的高效 时效。整体来看，从中国到伊朗的空运专线通常需要7-10个工作日，海运则需要30-40天左右。 本土化清关网络，解决复杂通关难题 伊朗海关政策多变，清关流程复杂，这是许多外贸企业头疼的问题。专业的伊朗货代专线公司通常在伊 朗设有本地团队，熟悉当地海关的运作规则和特殊要求。以运通天下为例，他们在伊朗本地设立华人驻 点团队，对敏感品清关规则了如指掌，如化学品VOC认证、医疗器械IMCO准入等，能够将清关时效从 行业平均的7天缩短至2-3天。 这样的本土化 ...

Core Viewpoint - Asia Industries Group (01737.HK) anticipates a net loss attributable to shareholders of approximately HKD 11 million to HKD 15 million for the six months ending September 30, 2025, contrasting with a net profit of HKD 70,000 for the same period ending September 30, 2024 [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Financial Performance** - The company expects a significant shift from profit to loss, with a projected net loss of HKD 11 million to HKD 15 million for the upcoming six-month period [1] - In the previous corresponding period, the company reported a net profit of HKD 70,000 [1] - **Operational Challenges** - The board attributes the expected loss primarily to a decrease in overall cargo handling volume in air freight forwarding ground services [1] - Due to uncertainties in the trade environment, the company has opted to maintain a stable workforce to ensure daily operations, resulting in labor costs not being reduced in line with the decrease in overall revenue and handling volume [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The "peak season" before the 2025 National Day Golden Week was lackluster. Ship operators withdrew an additional 544,000 TEU from the US and European routes in the past month, and the suspension of sailings by alliances increased significantly from W40 to W43, leading to an overall decline in shipping capacity [4]. - In the long run, when ship operators' stock prices fall from their highs, adjustments in operating strategies may make route layouts more complex and variable. A decline in the comprehensive profitability of routes will definitely prompt ship operators to change their operating strategies [4]. - The profitability of ship operators continued to deteriorate in the second quarter of 2025, which may affect their route capacity layout and thus freight rates [41]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Research Summary and Market Outlook 3.1.1. Research Summary - A cross - border e - commerce enterprise in South China has more than 50% of its cargo volume in the European and American regions. The impact of US tariffs on its exports is not significant. Before and after Trump's potential presidency, the enterprise increased inventory in advance, with a significant increase in shipping volume. Currently, the long - term agreement price is higher than the spot freight rate. The enterprise plans to transfer 30% of its remaining exports to Vietnam by the end of the year, with a total of 90% of its goods exported from Vietnam [2]. - A freight forwarding enterprise in South China mainly operates Southeast Asian and West African routes. Since 2025, the company's shipping volume has increased by 30% year - on - year, but due to overcapacity and falling freight rates, its revenue has only increased by 10%. The company uses a "30% direct shipping + 70% transshipment" model for exports to the US [3]. - A port in South China has seen an increase in the number of US routes after the US imposed tariffs, bringing an increase in shipping volume. The shipping capacity of Southeast Asian and West African routes has also increased significantly. In the first eight months, the port's container throughput exceeded 2000 TEU, with more than half being ocean - going container transportation [3]. 3.1.2. Market Outlook - In the long run, the adjustment of ship operators' operating strategies may make route layouts more complex. The profitability of a single European route has limited decisive influence on ship operators' profitability. Even if the price drops, it may not change the overcapacity situation, but a decline in comprehensive route profitability will prompt ship operators to change strategies [4]. 3.2. Research Background - As of August 12, 2025, Trump extended the China - US tariff truce period by 90 days to November 10. Currently, the US has a 30% tariff cap on Chinese imports, and China has a 10% tariff cap on US goods. The two sides continue to negotiate [5]. - In 2025, there were multiple rounds of trade negotiations between China and the US on various topics such as soybean purchases, Boeing parts purchases, and restrictions on technology product sales [5]. 3.3. Research Objects and Conclusions 3.3.1. A Large Cross - border E - commerce Enterprise in South China - Before the National Day, the enterprise's inventory situation was similar to the previous two years. Affected by tariff policies, the enterprise stocked up in advance, and the procurement volume in August was normal [22]. - The enterprise builds factories in Vietnam and Thailand to avoid US tariffs. It is expected that 90% of US orders will be produced in Vietnam by the end of the year. The production cost in Vietnam is 6% - 7% higher than in China [23]. - The European market accounts for 20% - 30% of the enterprise's sales, with the German market growing rapidly. The enterprise has increased advertising and marketing investment in the European market [24]. - The freight rate of European routes has been continuously falling, with the price of small containers dropping to over $1000 and large containers below $2000 [25]. 3.3.2. A Freight Enterprise in South China - The enterprise is a leading freight forwarder in South China, mainly focusing on Southeast Asian routes. It has a long - term contract with shipping companies, with advantages in guaranteed cabin space and stable prices [27]. - The enterprise uses a combination of long - term agreement and spot prices for booking, with the long - term agreement price accounting for 50%. Its sales increased by about 10% this year, lower than the expected 20% [29]. - The uncertainty of China - US trade is the biggest pain point. Global freight rates are generally falling, and the profit margin of the freight forwarding industry is extremely low [30]. - The enterprise's Southeast Asian cargo volume has increased by 30% - 40% this year, mainly due to the rise of cross - border e - commerce, industrial transfer, and increased domestic demand in Southeast Asia [31]. 3.3.3. A Port in South China - The port's overall performance is stable. Last year, it completed a total cargo throughput of about 592 million tons, with foreign trade throughput of about 150 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 5.5%. The container throughput exceeded 25 million TEU, with foreign trade container volume of about 11.8 million TEU [36]. - The port's traditional advantageous routes are Southeast Asian and African routes. The Southeast Asian route has seen significant cargo volume growth this year, and the US route has also increased in both cargo volume and the number of routes [37]. - The port has advantages in location, facilities, and cooperation with shipping companies. It has a mature process for route opening, a clear fee structure, and a high - planned operation [38][39]. 3.4. Ship Operators' Profitability and Operating Strategies - In the second quarter of 2025, the total EBIT of major ship operators was $2.73 billion, lower than the same period from 2021 - 2024 and slightly higher than the same period in 2020. The operating profitability of most ship operators has weakened since 2021 [41]. - The "peak season" during the National Day Golden Week in 2025 was lackluster. Ship operators withdrew additional capacity from US and European routes, and the suspension of sailings by alliances increased significantly from W40 to W43 [4][41].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the Container Shipping Index (European Route) futures at the Shanghai Futures Exchange serves as a new risk management tool for the shipping industry, helping enterprises manage market volatility and enhance competitiveness [1][3]. Group 1: Impact on Foreign Trade Enterprises - The Container Shipping Index (European Route) futures provide stability in shipping costs, addressing the concerns of foreign trade enterprises like Shandong Laiwu Taifeng Food Co., Ltd., which previously faced unpredictable shipping costs due to market fluctuations [3][4]. - By utilizing the futures, Taifeng Food was able to hedge against rising shipping costs, resulting in a net additional payment of only 8,000 RMB instead of 40,000 RMB due to price increases in the spot market [5][7]. Group 2: Benefits for Freight Forwarding Companies - Freight forwarding companies, such as Qingdao Taize International Logistics Co., Ltd., have gained a competitive edge by using the Container Shipping Index (European Route) futures to manage risks associated with price volatility [8]. - The futures have allowed these companies to engage in hedging transactions, effectively avoiding price fluctuations and even generating profits during periods of rising shipping rates [8]. Group 3: Market Performance and Adoption - Since its launch, the Container Shipping Index (European Route) futures have demonstrated strong market performance, with a total trading volume of 61.0491 million contracts and a trading value of 5.28 trillion RMB over two years [10]. - The futures have been resilient during significant market disruptions, such as the Red Sea crisis and U.S.-China trade tensions, indicating their effectiveness as a financial derivative [10]. - Despite the positive impact, there remains a need for greater market awareness and education regarding the futures, as many potential users still express skepticism about their benefits [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The standardization of FBA first-leg logistics services in the Jieyang region significantly impacts operational efficiency for cross-border e-commerce sellers, with a focus on the complete logistics process from order receipt to delivery at Amazon warehouses [1][6]. Group 1: Standardized Service Process Framework - The standardized service process for Jieyang FBA first-leg logistics includes five core steps: order receipt and plan formulation, collection and transportation, port operations, overseas customs clearance and delivery, and handover to Amazon warehouses [3]. - The logistics provider, Kaiqi Supply Chain, offers a one-hour pickup service and ensures rapid consolidation of goods in the Pearl River Delta distribution center [3]. - For North American FBA sea freight, the overseas customs clearance and delivery process achieves a 98% punctuality rate through partnerships with top ten customs clearance companies [3]. Group 2: Key Operational Nodes - The core operational nodes of Jieyang Amazon FBA logistics include three quality control points: transparent pricing, an exception handling mechanism, and a data synchronization system [4]. - Kaiqi Supply Chain's intelligent pricing system maintains a billing discrepancy rate within 3% for a furniture company in Foshan [4]. - The logistics tracking system's integration with Amazon's system contributes to a 98% delivery punctuality rate, supported by dynamic space management and same-day delivery mechanisms [4]. Group 3: Differentiated Features of Professional Services - The professionalism of Jieyang first-leg logistics providers is reflected in the completeness of value-added services, such as Kaiqi Supply Chain's one-piece drop shipping service, which includes warehousing, unpacking, and labeling [5]. - The company offers a seven-day free storage period, exceeding the industry standard by two days, and supports flexible cargo allocation through self-loading functions, improving consolidation efficiency by 30% for a Zhejiang brand [5]. - Customized solutions for high-value products and seasonal items help reduce logistics costs by 18% and complaints from 5% to 0.3% for a Guangzhou cross-border e-commerce company [5]. Group 4: Practical Suggestions for Process Optimization - Sellers can enhance the efficiency of Jieyang FBA first-leg logistics by selecting service providers with full-process management capabilities, such as Kaiqi Supply Chain's Ship Track certification [6]. - A "sea freight + air freight" combination mode is recommended for regular replenishment and new product launches to control costs and optimize timeliness [6]. - Prioritizing platforms with intelligent systems can provide automatic alerts for potential delays three days in advance [6]. Group 5: Industry Trends - The FBA first-leg logistics service process in Jieyang has formed a standardized system, with professional service providers like Kaiqi Supply Chain offering predictable and controllable logistics services through dynamic pricing models and intelligent tracking systems [6]. - The customer retention rate for these services has remained above 90% for five consecutive years, indicating the value of professional services [6]. - The industry's future direction is towards digital upgrades, with a focus on standardization and intelligence in service processes [6].

Group 1 - The international procurement market and Chinese enterprises are currently cautious, but this does not affect the proactive response of foreign trade professionals and the diversification of market expansion [1] - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index has dropped nearly 30% from its peak on June 6, with a continuous decline for seven weeks [2] - The shipping rates to the US have significantly decreased, with rates to the West Coast and East Coast dropping by over 60% and 50% respectively since their recent peaks [2][3] Group 2 - The traditional foreign trade peak season, typically starting in August, is currently in a state of observation due to the impending end of the 90-day tariff transition period [2][3] - There is a noticeable lack of signs indicating a recovery in demand, with many logistics companies reporting no significant increase in demand or cargo volume [3][4] - The recent trade agreement between Vietnam and the US has altered some companies' shipping strategies, leading to a decline in the attractiveness of Vietnam for transshipment [6] Group 3 - The overall market sentiment is cautious due to tariff fluctuations and economic downturn pressures, with ongoing discussions between China and the US aimed at stabilizing trade relations [4] - The volume of container freight from China to Vietnam has surged significantly, while freight volume to the US has declined, indicating a shift in trade patterns [7] - Chinese exports to Vietnam have increased by 21.0% in the first half of the year, outpacing growth rates to ASEAN and overall export growth [7] Group 4 - Despite the current challenges, foreign trade companies are focusing on enhancing supply chain resilience and expanding international layouts as a long-term strategy [8] - Some companies are transitioning from product export to industry expansion, establishing local manufacturing and service networks in overseas markets [8]

Group 1 - The U.S. has eliminated the de minimis exemption for goods valued at $800 or less exported from mainland China and Hong Kong, requiring a 120% tariff on the goods' value or a fixed fee of $200 for postal shipments [1] - Tru Identity's CEO Hugo Pakula highlighted a significant loophole in the U.S. postal system, allowing Chinese shippers to exploit postal channels for shipping goods at an unprecedented scale, resulting in losses of "hundreds of millions or even tens of billions" of dollars for U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) [1][7] - Pakula explained that the CN22 customs declaration form, which is required for postal shipments, allows for optional disclosure of the country of origin, enabling shippers to avoid tariffs if they do not provide this information [5][7] Group 2 - Many large brands, particularly from China, are reportedly taking advantage of this loophole, with some shippers using transshipment methods to circumvent tariffs by routing packages through places like Singapore or other locations outside China [5][7] - Pakula noted that postal companies are aware of this situation but are indifferent due to increased business volume and profits, while CBP is highly concerned about the revenue losses [7] - CBP has the authority to take action against this loophole but has not yet done so, as they are seeking effective solutions, potentially involving private sector collaboration, to address the issue [8]